powerpoint presentation: what information is available and ......what information is available and...
TRANSCRIPT
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What information is available and what ismissing for energy and water cycle processmodeling efforts, and the ways to address
the gaps
Eric F Wood
With help fromAsa Rennermalm (PU), Tara Troy (PU), Laura Bowling(Purdue), Ted Bohn (UW), Dennis Lettenmaier (UW)
NORTHERN EURASIA LANDSURFACE PROPERTIES ANDCHANGE AND ITS ROLE IN THE GLOBAL EARTH
SYSTEM AND MODELS
August 12 – 17, 2007, Aspen, CO
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QETPdt
d
dt
d SWSM −−=+θθ
Soil moisture,Drainage,Baseflow
Observed,Reanalysis
Evapotranspiration
River dischargeGroundwater fluxes
Lakes, Rivers.
Snowpack
Princeton University©
Observations
Parameterized
Basic water budget equation
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GHEkTRR SLS ++=−+− λεα 4)1(
Observations,Reanalysis
Longwave ↑
Princeton University©
Ground heat flux
Sensible heat flux
Latent heat flux
Observations
Parameterized
Basic energy budget equation
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What information is available and what is missing for energy and watercycle process modeling efforts, and the ways to address the gaps
“What information is needed for energy and water cycle modeling?”
1. Forcing data: Surface Meteorology, incoming/downward radiation
2. Data used in process parameterizations:-- Land cover and, for vegetation, its related phenology-- Soil data including composition, hydraulic and thermal properties-- Topography, including micro-topography that controls fens and
bog areas
3. Data used to validate process parameterizations:-- River discharge-- Snow cover extent-- Lake and reservoir levels-- Soil moisture, groundwater levels-- Bore hole temperature logs for permafrost and seasonal freezing-- Evapotranspiration
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What information is available and what is missing for energy and watercycle process modeling efforts, and the ways to address the gaps
“What information is needed for energy and water cycle modeling?”
1. Forcing data: Surface Meteorology, incoming/downward radiation
2. Data used in process parameterizations:-- Land cover and, for vegetation, its related phenology-- Soil data including composition, hydraulic and thermal properties-- Topography, including micro-topography that controls fens and
bog areas
Some examples of the needed data sets
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Precipitation Gauge Network
Figure taken from NCDC Documentation for Dataset 9813:Daily and Sub-daily Precipitation for the Former USSR.
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Discharge Gauge Network
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In Situ Observations
Data on snow cover characteristics includes the following information:• snow cover thickness along snow courses over different landscapes,• degree of the area covered by snow cover along a snow course;• snow cover density• Snow Water Equivalent
Source: Nina Speranskaya, State Hydrological Institute, Russia
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PGF501948-2000, 3hr, daily, 1.0degP, T, Lw, Sw, q, p, w
CRU1901-2000, Monthly, 0.5degP, T, Tmin, Tmax, Cld
GPCP1997-, Daily, 1.0degP
UW1979-2000, Daily, 2.0degP
TRMM2002-, 3hr, 0.25degP
SRB1985-2000, 3hr, 1.0degLw, Sw
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis1948-, 3hr, 6hr, daily, T62P, T, Lw, Sw, q, p, w
ReanalysisHigh temporal/low spatial resolution
ObservationsGenerally low temporal/high
spatial resolution
Bias-CorrectedHigh temporal/high spatial resolution:
Princeton Global Forcing 50-year data set (PGF50)
Global Forcing Dataset (see Sheffield et al 2006, J Climate)
Princeton University
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Is the accuracy and resolution sufficient?Is the accompanying phenology available?
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Lehner, B., and P. Doll (2004), Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs andwetlands, Journal of Hydrology, 296, 1-22.
Where do we find peatlands, what is thedistribution of lakes?
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What information is available and what is missing for energy and watercycle process modeling efforts, and the ways to address the gaps
“…energy and water cycle process modeling efforts?”
In-situ observations are too sparse to support land surface modelingforcing data sets having spatial resolutions finer than about 1-degree.
Thus, to what extent are we capturing the temporal and spatialdynamics of energy and water cycle dynamics across the NEESPIdomain?
Are the energy and water cycle process parameterizations sufficientlyaccurate that they can be used to attribute LULCC and climatechange attribution?
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• VIC hydrology model– Large, “flat” grid cells (e.g.
100x100 km)– Land cover “tiles”
(vegetation types)– On hourly to 3-hrly time
step, simulate:• Soil moisture/water table• Snow pack• Runoff• Lake/surface water• Evapotranspiration/Latent
heat flux• Soil temperature• Sensible heat flux• Ground heat flux
Typical Land Surface Modeling Framework
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The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model
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VIC Cold Season Schematic
Snow energy modelFrozen soil modelSnow elevation
bands
Princeton University
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VICArctic
Modeling
Annual average daysof snow cover for theentire Arctic basin
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VIC Arctic ModelingMonthly variation in snow cover extent(1980-1993)
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Spatial versus Uniform Snow AlgorithmWinter 1994-1995 – Rosemount, Minn.
Algorithm Development
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Spatially-distributed frozen soils
• Soil node temperaturessolved via heat diffusionequation
• Ice content, infiltrationrate and heat capacitycalculated at nodes
• Assumed uniformtemperature distributionacross the grid cell allowsspatial variation ofinfiltration capacity
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Spatially-distributed frozen soils
Betty Pingo, Alaska
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Lakes andWetlands
• Lake energybalance based on:– Hostetler and Bartlein
(1990)– Hostetler (1991)
• Assumptions:– One “effective” lake for
each grid cell;– Laterally-averaged
temperatures; and– Non-linear rule curve
for release of runofffrom grid cell lake.
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Snow depthsimulated on top oflake ice
Lake ice - stays toolong?
Temperature profile- complete mixing infall and spring
Lakes and Wetlands - Snow and Ice
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Lakes and WetlandsEvaporation
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From Bohn et al. 2005 (Multi-model estimates of Arctic land surface conditions, AGUDec 2005)
Annual runoff across the pan-Arctic
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From Bohn et al. 2005 (Multi-model estimates of Arctic land surface conditions, AGUDec 2005)
Annual evapotranspiration across the pan-Arctic
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Raw Annual Discharge, 1980-1999Lena Yenisei
Ob MacKenzie
From Bohn et al. 2005 (Multi-model estimates of Arctic land surface conditions, AGUDec 2005)
Multi-model runoff across the pan-Arctic
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Ensemble Discharge, 1980-1999Lena Yenisei
Ob MacKenzie
Multi-model runoff across the pan-Arctic
From Bohn et al. 2005 (Multi-model estimates of Arctic land surface conditions, AGUDec 2005)
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Time series of discharge of the Yeneseiand Ob Rivers over the last 50 years.
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Conflicting Explanations for Discharge Trends
Brown (2000), Groisman et al.(1994), Robinson et al. (1990)
Change in snow accumulation /ablation patterns
Gedney et al. (2006)Change in evapotranspiration
Smith et al. (2005)Changes in lake areal extentand storage
McClelland et al. (2004), Conradand Ivanova (1997)
Climate-induced changes tothe land surface (increased firefrequency)
Frauenfield et al. (2004), Zhanget al. (2003), Ye et al. (2003)
Release of water frompermafrost degradation
Yang et al. (2004), Ye et al.(2003), McClelland et al. (2004)
Human effects (reservoirconstruction)
Nijssen et al. (2001), Wu et al.(2005), Arnel (2005)
Increased northwardatmospheric moisture transport
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Snow (Re)Distribution
• Sublimation duringblowing snow– Increase in winter latent
heat
– Decrease in snowavailable for melt
• Variable snow coverage– Variable melt water
availability
– Advection of sensible heatfrom bare areas
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Sublimation from transported snow
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What information is available and what is missing for energy and watercycle process modeling efforts, and the ways to address the gaps
“…energy and water cycle process not well understood”
• Permafrost processes (how to model at large scales)
• Surface runoff and baseflow in permafrost environments
• Lake/wetland extent at large scales
• Fire/land cover change effects
• Peatlands – significant in the NEESPI region
• Inertia of the system – some of the processes, such as permafrostdynamics, occur over large time scales that we may or maynot be capturing in our modeling
We have made progress on process-based modeling:-- Lake extent and processes-- Blowing snow--Active layer development-- Water - Carbon cycle interactions
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Extent of shallow Lakes and wetlands arehighly variable over snow free season
Bowling, L. C., et al. (2003), The role of surface storage in a low-gradient Arctic watershed, Water Resources Research, 39, -.
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Eugster, W., et al. (2000), Land-atmosphere energy exchange inArctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks toclimate, Global Change Biology, 6, 84-115.
McFadden, J. P., et al. (2003), A regional study ofthe controls on water vapor and CO2 exchange inarctic tundra, Ecology, 84, 2762-2776.
Evapotranspiration in Kuparuk Basin, AKEddy covariance measurements ofH2O flux between1994-1996 (note: databelow may be from different years!)
Deep lake!
Shallow and Deep lakes very different
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Cumulative wetland complex evapotranspiration, Summer 1996
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
8-Jun 18-Jun 28-Jun 8-Jul 18-Jul 28-Jul 7-Aug 17-Aug 27-Aug
ET
(cm
)
precipitation
watershed water balance
pond water balance
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Lake dynamics
Smith, L. C., et al. (2005), Disappearing Arctic lakes, Science,308, 1429-1429.
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Lakes and wetland modeling(VIC Lake/Wetland Algorithm)
soilsaturated
land surfacerunoff enters
lake
evaporationdepletes soil
moisture
lakerecharges
soilmoisture
Lake drainage = f(water depth, calibration parameter)
(From T. Bohn, U. Washington)
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Seasonal variation in surface water extent
Putuligayuk River, Alaska
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Lake and wetland extent
• Problem:– Evaporation/carbon flux from shallow water lake and
wetland systems is an important component of theenergy balance/carbon cycle
– Water extent is changing due both to ET changes andpermafrost thaw, but direction of change depends onthe permafrost dynamics
• Needs:– Spatial distribution of depth of permafrost– Ground ice content– Model algorithm development
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How does peatland differ?
Rennermalm, A. K., et al. (2005), Interannual variability incarbon dioxide exchange from a high arctic fen estimated bymeasurements and modeling, Arctic Antarctic and AlpineResearch, 37, 545-556.
peat
Mineral soil
peat peat Mineral soil
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Prigent, C., et al. (2007), Global inundation dynamics inferredfrom multiple satellite observations, 1993-2000, Journal ofGeophysical Research-Atmospheres, 112, -.
Wetland/peatlands in NorthernHemisphere Inundated 1-4 monthsa year
How does peatlands alter the water andenergy balance?
Wetland/peatlands:- Higher evapotranspiration
Soegaard, H., et al. (2001), Surface energy- andwater balance in a high-arctic environment in NEGreenland, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,70, 35-51.
Fen = peatland
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Vapor pressure uncertainty
• Problem:– Extremely low winter temperatures in the arctic lead to low
saturated vapor pressure values– Existing parameterizations (e.g. Tdew = daily Tmin) are not
adequately tested in the arctic– In-situ observations are rare and uncertainty often exists whether
the observations are taken assuming equilibrium with water orice
• Implications:– Evaporation/sublimation may be limited by vapor pressure rather
than water or energy– The direction of net over-winter vapor flux in unknown
• Needs:– Over-winter eddy covariance and humidity measurements?
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Annual average sublimationKuparuk River
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Sensitivity to vapor pressure
Average annualsurface sublimation:
RH w.r.t. ice-5.3 mm
RH w.r.t water-9.2 mm
Tdew = Tmin+6.6 mm
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“What’s missing..”New Directions and Research Needs
1) Data - Primary need is to assemble a best quality retrospective
precipitation data set, duration at least one decade, with bestcurrent attempts at gauge catch correction.What is the potential of remote sensing to supplement thesparse in situ observation network?
2) Modeling• We tend to focus on an entire basin. Process and validation
tends to be at ‘experimental basin scale. Issues of processscaling
• Continue improving and testing process representations• Energy balance - - snow, ET• Subgrid snow distribution, partial coverage, sublimation from
blowing snow• Frozen soils and permafrost• Lake and wetland storage, and linkages to the carbon cycle.
• Incorporate data assimilation approaches in off-linemodeling?
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3) Land surface process understanding (from modelsand data)
-- Use macroscale hydrology models to predictspatial distribution of ET (can be viewed asvalidation “data” to coupled modelers)
-- Focus on surface energy exchange as well aswater
4) Synthesis of results from a variety of studies –basically need a framework for testing hypothesesthrough modeling and observations
“What’s missing..”New Directions and Research Needs
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Thank you