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Don’t look for autonomous vehicles soon

NA power boat demand grows

Brazil Agrishow 2018 Report

JCB reduces backhoe production

Royal Enfield eyes global markets

Nissan to drop diesels in Europe

Russian car sales climb 18%

Published Monthly by

PowerTALKMay 23, 2018 Volume 3 No. 5 Worldwide News & Analysis

About UsPower Systems Research (PSR) is a world leader in providing power equipment

information, whether it’s pure data, analysis, forecasting or specific business

intelligence. This product information ranges from IC engines to battery-electric

and hybrid powertrain technologies. PSR has been providing world class

business and market intelligence to industry leaders for more than 40 years. How

can we help you? For details, call +1 651.905.8400 or email info@powersys.com.

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Power Systems Research: Data....Forecasts...Strategies

Top Stories

Data PointBy Carol Turner, Senior Analyst, Global Operations

1,500

This is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Off-Highway

Trucks that will be produced in North America (US and Canada) in 2018. This is

an increase of 3% from the 1,470 units produced in 2017 and 1,284 units built in

2016. An Off-Highway Truck is defined as a rigid dump truck designed specifically

for use in high-production mining and heavy-duty construction operations.

Industry leaders are Caterpillar with 53.5% of total units produced. In second

position is Deere, with 27.5%, and in third is Komatsu America with 16%.

From 2016 to 2017, production of Off-Highway Trucks in North America increased

14.5%. An increase of 3.3% is expected for 2018 over 2017. In 2017, there was

increased demand for mining equipment due to increased excavation of iron ore,

nickel and bauxite, as well as gold and copper.

We see production of Off-Highway Trucks increasing up to 5% over the next three

years, but expect production to fluctuate with mining activity. PSR

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Click Here To Go To Page 1 Alternative Power

Autonomous Vehicles Long Way Off

By John Krzesicki, PSR Business Development Manager

Readers of PowerTALK aren’t looking for autonomous vehicles

to hit the roads soon, if our survey published last month is any

indication.

In the April issue of PowerTALK, we asked readers, “When

do you think a fully autonomous vehicle will be available in

the market place?” Only 22.22% of respondents said it would

happen within five years.

More, 33.33%, said it would happen in the period of six to 10

years. So, about 55% of respondents said they expect to see a

fully autonomous vehicle on the road within 10 years.

However, another 44.44% said it would be more than 11 years,

and 33.33% said it would be more than 20 years before we see

large numbers of fully autonomous vehicles on the road.

Look for the biggest changes to come in the commercial sector where there’s a

shortage of drivers and where operating costs are more important than among

private drivers. PSR

In the April issue of PowerTALK, we asked readers, “When do you think a fully autonomous vehicle will be available in the market place?” Only 22.22% of respondents said it would happen within five years. John

Krzesicki

Global/North America Report By Michael Aistrup, PSR Senior Analyst

North America Recreational Boat Update

Boat buyers in North America continue to opt for bigger motors

and more power as they purchase recreation boats.

By one estimate, average horsepower growth in the U.S.

recreational marine engine market over the last few years, has

been increasing by almost 8% CAGR.

“The average today in the U.S. is 111 horsepower. By 2020, it

will be 125 horsepower. It wasn’t that long ago it was somewhere

around 90,” according to Mercury Marine President John Pfeifer.

The upshift in outboard power is being driven partly by innovation (new outboards

are quiet, fuel efficient, compact and lightweight) and partly by broader changes in

the overall boating landscape.

Michael

Aistrup

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Click Here To Go To Page 1Technical innovations in today’s latest engines deliver attractive features beyond

improved fuel economy, low emissions and reduced maintenance requirements.

Buyers are happy to pay for practical innovations like built-in hydraulic steering,

automatic trim and digital shift and throttle.

The entire boating market seems to be experiencing an upshift as consumers

gravitate to increasingly larger products. “Boating is getting bigger, but not in the

sense that everyone’s out there buying 350s and 400s,” said David Foulkes, VP and

CTO Brunswick Corp. “The distribution curve is definitely moving up. People who

previously would have bought a 60 are now buying a 75, for example, and people

who would have bought a 90 in the past are now more likely to buy a 115.

“The overall volumes in that mid-range are still higher than for the very top end, but

the whole curve is sliding upward. Our new 350 and 400 recognize that upward shift

and provide new options for those customers who would have previously bought a

250 or a 300,” Foulkes added.

Here’s one example of how big engines are getting: Yamaha has just introduced a

425-hp V-8 outboard engine.

Today, 85% of the market is outboard and only 15% of the market is sterndrive.

Buyers today are foregoing that 4.3-liter V6 with a sterndrive on it, and now they’re

buying a 200 horsepower V6 outboard instead. The growth in outboard horsepower

is further fueled by the fact consumers view power upgrades as offering considerable

added value against a relatively modest incremental cost. For a consumer who’s

already looking at spending anywhere from $50,000 up on a boat and engine

package, the additional cost for extra horsepower isn’t seen as a major upsell.

The fast-growing pontoon category is also driving demand for big outboards, as

these vessels grow in size and weight requiring greater power, according to Tracy

Crocker, senior vice-president and general manager for Evinrude. “The growing

demand for outboards has been given a further boost from an unexpected source –

manufacturers of traditional sterndrive-powered runabouts. As these builders have

expanded their product lines by adding outboard-powered models, the demand for

outboard power has grown even more.”

The industry has the wind at its back and is being propelled favorably by rising

real estate sales, a strong stock market and an improving economy. “2017 marked

the sixth consecutive year of growth in new boat sales and recreational boating

expenditures, and we expect that trend to continue through 2018, and possibly

beyond,” said Thom Dammrich, NMMA president. New powerboat sales increased

5% in 2017, to 262,000 units, the highest level the boating industry has seen in 10

years with continued sales growth of 5-6% expected in 2018.

The marine industry is experiencing significant growth in units sold and higher

horsepower engines, but any downturn in the global or the U.S. economy will have a

negative effect on the pleasure boat industry, including the engine segment. PSR

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Global/North America ReportContinued from page 2

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Click Here To Go To Page 1 Brazil/South America Report

By Fabio Ferraresi, PSR Director, Business Development, South America

Special Report – Agrishow 2018

Agrishow is the biggest trade show for Agricultural Business

in Latin America and one of the biggest in the world. This

year, it was held April 30 - May 4, and the PSR team was on

the floor gathering information and looking at new products.

An estimated 150.000 people were at the show, visiting

stands of 800 brands of Agricultural Equipment companies,

such as John Deere, AGCO Group, CNHind, Jacto, Agrale,

Yanmar/Agritech, Metalfor, LS tractor and many others from

different segments, as MAN Latin America, XCMG, JCB, Husqvarna and even

Jaguar Land Rover.

It was also an opportunity to make deals, since finance groups such as Banco

do Brasil, Bradesco were there with special funding lines from BNDES. Even

the president of Brazil spoke at the show. The total business volume reached

R$ 2.7 Billion of sales in the event, 22% higher than at last year’s show.

Agrishow is an opportunity for PSR staff to update its databases with launches

announced at the show, including FTP Genset series, the Brazilian Siac/

Colombo peanuts combines and the new BioMethane tractor of New Holland,

one of the biggest attractions in the show.

PSR Analysis: Despite the fact the harvest growth is not as large as in the last

couple years, the Agricultural Equipment market is still growing, due to an

increase in commodities prices and low harvests in Argentina and China-USA

issues on grains purchasing. Available funding lines and pent-up demand

on fleet renewal built over the last couple years due to shortage of funds and

difficult access conditions have added to the growth.

FPT Launches Gen-sets in Brazil

FPT announced at Agrishow the launch of a complete portfolio of gen-sets from

30 to 600 kVA for Brazilian Market, in 8 models of gen-sets without cabinet

and 7 with cabinet in multiple versions, according to end user needs. It will be

assembled by Himoinsa plant in Brazil and sold by FPT dealers network.

Source: FPT press release

Fabio

Ferraresi

Despite the fact the harvest growth is not as large as in the last couple years, the Agricultural Equipment market is still growing.

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Click Here To Go To Page 1PSR Analysis: FPT will shake the gen-set market with the initiative,

increasing Himoinsa production and revenue on contract manufacturing

with incremental volumes, threatening the existing players. It comes in

an opportunistic moment, when Stemac is facing challenges on the lower

volumes market. PSR

China Report By Qin Fen, PSR Business Development Manager-China.

Erik Martin, PSR Director-Asia Region, contributed to this report

Guangzhou to Implement National 6B Emission Regulation

Five months after China announced the National 5 emission

regulations for light and heavy duty on-highway vehicles,

Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong province in

Southern China, followed Shenzhen in announcing that

Guangzhou will implement National 6B emission regulation

on light duty vehicles less than 3.5 GVWR. starting Jan. 1, 2019

Source: Guangzhou Environmental Protection Agency Read The Article Another Article

PSR Analysis: Guangzhou and Shenzhen are very “radical” in terms of

implementing next generation emission regulation. They are four years ahead

of schedule. Transition time from National 5 to National 6B literally is only one

year. And if light duty OEMs are finding it hard to comply, that’s alright with

Shenzhen, because the city is already encouraging users to switch to battery-

powered vehicles. Pretty soon, Beijing and Shanghai, as capital and largest

city in China, might follow Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

BCPG Seeks Partners for Green Drive

BANGKOK– BCPG, the SET-listed renewable power arm of oil refiner and

retailer Bangchak Corporation, is negotiating merger and acquisition (M&A)

agreements with a set of renewable energy firms as it strives to expand abroad

and capitalize on growing demand for green energy.

Source: Bangkok Post Read The Article Another Article One More Article

Qin FenMarineLink™

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for 2018

The 2018 edition of MarineLink™ will be available in Q2 2018.

MarineLink™ contains details on nearly 500 pleasure boat and internal combustion engine manufacturers in Europe and North America.

MarineLink™: a great tool for tracking 10-year trends in the marine industry.

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Click Here To Go To Page 1PSR Analysis: This Bangkok Post article highlights the increasingly significant

role Thailand is playing in the development and distribution of renewable

energy at home and throughout ASEAN and Asia. We also get a glimpse into

the way microgrids and distributed energy solutions are changing the way

we look at traditional forms of energy generation and transmission. Further

upsetting traditional views is the advent of blockchain technology to create

new energy system models. Regulators, power producers and manufacturers

may have to rethink current methods, and decide how to embrace new

opportunities; they’ll have to work with tech firms, start-ups, universities and

the like to expand this model into new areas.

China ReportContinued from page 5

Europe Report

By Emiliano Marzoli, PSR Business Development Manager-Europe

JCB Reduces Backhoe Production

JCB is reducing it’s backhoe production in order to increase its

telehandler production. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This is a trend that has been highlighted

recently; the telehandler market is growing, in Europe as

well as in the US. This is a good indication that the focus on

telehandlers is definitely in the forefront of JCB’s strategy.

The main reason for this increase in telehandlers is due to

it’s versatility. Our recent visit to Intermat, one of the largest

construction shows in the world, showed that many players have been

focusing on the telehandler market. Not only the players that were already in

the race such as JCB, Merlo and Deici, to name a few.

This growing market has been identified by a number of players that are

finding new and innovative ways to get some of that market share. Players

like Bobcat, which has brought out reinforced telehandlers to be used in the

rental market.

In order to keep up on the production of backhoe’s, the existing models that

were being produced in the US will shift over to their UK facility. PSR

Emiliano

Marzoli

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Click Here To Go To Page 1 Far East/Southeast Asia Report:By Akihiro Komuro, PSR Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia

INTERMAT ASEAN Planned for Bangkok Sept. 6-8, 2018INTERMAT ASEAN will be held in Bangkok, Thailand.

Sept. 6-8, 2018. This Southeast Asian trade exhibition on

construction and infrastructure, focuses on five key sectors -

Earthmoving & Demolition, Roads, Minerals & Foundations,

Building Industry and Lifting, and Handling & Transportation.

Providing opportunities to explore the latest trends and to

source products, the trade exhibition brings together more

than 5,000 leading companies and brands in a strategic

location – Bangkok, Thailand.

For more information:

• INTERMAT ASEAN• Download Show Brochure• Download Post-Show Report 2017

Concrete Asia To Be Held With INTERMAT ASEANConcrete Asia, the international exhibition for the Asian concrete sector,

showcases a comprehensive range of concrete and cement products,

technologies and techniques. Co-located with INTERMAT ASEAN, the trade

exhibition for the building and construction industry, Concrete Asia aims to

target over 4,000 industry professionals.

For more information:

• CONCRETE ASIA• Download Concrete Asia Brocure• Download Post-Show Report 2017

Far East: Japan

Nissan To Withdraw from European Diesel MarketJapanese carmaker Nissan will gradually stop selling diesel cars in Europe in

a further sign of weakening demand for those cars as customers worry about

tax increases and looming bans and restrictions related to diesel in many

countries. A Nissan spokeswoman said there would be a gradual withdrawal

from diesel cars in Europe. A source told Reuters that Nissan would cut

hundreds of jobs at its Sunderland plant, Britain’s biggest automotive factory,

due to falling demand for diesel models in Europe.

Source: Reuters Read The Article

Akihiro

Komuro

OE Link™ Your source for OEM

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Click Here To Go To Page 1PSR Analysis: Toyota has already decided to withdraw from diesel in Europe.

With Toyota and Nissan, the top two Japanese car OEMs, leaving the

European diesel market, the shift to EV will accelerate. Although Mitsubishi

and Mazda use diesel technology, it would be difficult to reverse the position

of customers who simply don’t want diesel. There are also reports that

BOSCH has developed a technology that reduces harmful substances of

diesel engines to 1/10, but it is unknown how much this will penetrate diesel

vehicles in the future. The wave of EV is too fast. PSR

Far East: South Korea

Doosan Infracore Invests in Self-driving Startup PoteNit

Doosan Infracore aims to develop unmanned, automated construction

machinery in tandem with the startup equipped with the best technology

in South Korea. In recent months, Doosan Infracore has been pushing to

invest both directly and indirectly in new technologies and businesses related

with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In particular, the company is striving

to secure unmanned and automated construction machine technologies for

construction and mining worksites and to explore such solutions.

Source: Doosan Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Lack of talent in mining and construction is not limited to

Japan and South Korea. Self-Driving technology will become more important

and a more efficient business management to address human safety and

compete for talent. Komatsu and Caterpillar are already leading in this

field, but Doosan is also jumping on this trend. On the day before this

announcement, the company also made a presentation of Doosan CONNECT

telematics service. These technologies will be indispensable for future

construction machines and mining machines. PSR

Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam

Indonesia May File WTO Complaint Over Vietnam’s Car Import Policy

Through the new regulation, Vietnam requires international standards

related to vehicle safety and emissions for incoming cars. And while Vietnam

acknowledges that cars manufactured in Indonesia comply with the local

Indonesian National Standard (SNI), it believes that the SNI is not fully

in accordance with the desired international criteria. Indonesia, however,

emphasizes that the local standard complies with international standards

because both standards use the same process and test equipment.

Far East/Southeast Asia ReportContinued from page 7

In particular, [Doosan Infracore] is striving to secure unmanned and automated construction machine technologies for construction and mining worksites and to explore such solutions.

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Click Here To Go To Page 1Source: Indonesia-Investments Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This is not just a matter of Indonesia and Vietnam. Rather, this

problem is a hurdle in the process of the automotive industry in Southeast

Asia becoming highly networked. For Indonesia, which boasts about ten

times the size of Vietnam in automobile production volume, it is an action

aimed at expanding business opportunities, and for Vietnam, it is an action to

protect its own industry and market. If these hurdles are solved, networking in

Southeast Asia will become closer and stronger.PSR

India Report

By Jinal Shah, Regional Director, South Asia Operations

Royal Enfield Wants To Replicate its India Story in Other Markets

Royal Enfield, which sold 19,000 units, up 26% in FY18,

is looking to consolidate its presence where it already has a

foothold looking at growing its footprint from just 1-2 stores to

30-50 stores in the long term. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: As Royal Enfield pushes to become a significant

player in the global mid-sized motorcycle segment (250cc to 750cc), it is eyeing

various markets including Latin America and SE Asia. These markets are similar

to the Indian market with respect to demographics and high share of commuter

motorcycles. It appears that the company is meticulously working to establish

itself in these markets and expand its retail outlets.

The company already has delivered several Continental GT’s in the UK and

select European countries, but we believe the growth effort will be in developing

markets. With an impressive domestic growth story and the confidence and

cash to spend, it can certainly afford to develop new platforms and products to

make strategic inroads into International markets.

Supreme Court: Auto Makers Switch To Electric Vehicles

With the government unable to bring diesel prices down to a par with petrol to

discourage people from using the polluting fuel, the Supreme Court has asked

automobile companies to switch to manufacturing electric vehicles.

Read The Article

CV Link™ We know trucks and buses.

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Far East/Southeast Asia ReportContinued from page 8

Jinal

Shah

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Click Here To Go To Page 1

India ReportContinued from page 9

PSR Analysis: A week after the SC expressed displeasure with auto makers

inability to curb air pollution, it appears the government has planned

Rs.9000 crore sops to push eco-friendly cars. It’s offering incentives to those

scrapping petrol-fired or diesel-fired vehicles along with sops for investment to

manufacture parts such as motors in the country.

There are more incentives for cab aggregators and bus fleet owners to go

green. Adding support with infrastructure equipment, the government plans to

add at least one charging point every 9 sq km in all metros, million-plus cities

and selected smart cities. We believe most of the incentives will cover two and

three wheelers. PSR

Russia Report By Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant, Russia

Putin Announces Priority Fuel for Vehicles

Russian president Putin during the meeting with government

members stated that NG fuel in Russia should have a priority

on electric power. Putin said NG fuel has advantages in

economical and ecological aspects. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Currently, NG fuel implementation in Russia is

restricted by the (very few OEMs use NG fuel) infrastructure

(lack of NG fuel stations), and legal (problems with certification) issues.

However, probably with the president involvement, the situation will change.

Rostech Will Fund New Owner for Tractor Plants

Transcomponent Holding will acquire Tractor Plants operation for an

undisclosed amount of money. Current debts of the OEM exceed 100 billion

rubles (US$ 1.6 billion). Rostech will survive as an OEM, using the State-

Private partnership funding mechanism.

Tractor shares will be sold to private investors, who will be required to

resolve the sales revenue problem, restructure the debt, and ensure efficient

functioning of the enterprise. Tractor Plants is a major manufacturer of

agriculture and construction machinery, including combines, dozers and

diesel engines.

The next stage planned is to split civil and military parts of the OEM.

Read The Article

Maxim

Sakov

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Click Here To Go To Page 1

COMPONENTS

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Many components are already included in our databases. If the ones you require are not, we may be able to identify them for you.

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We can help.

PSR Analysis: Here we see an example of the soft industry nationalization

going on in Russia. Rostech, a state-owned corporation, will be used to

prevent a private OEM filing for bankruptcy. Initial support will come from state

finances, and then ownership betransfered to a new controlling structure.

Russian New Car Sales Grow 18% in April

Sales of new passenger cars and LCV’s in Russia grew by 17.6% ol 152,400

vehicles. During the first four months of 2018, the market increased by 20.5%

to 545,300 vehicles. The leading OEM is still AutoVAZ with 17% growth. The

next ones are KIA and Hyundai. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The market for PCs and LCVs continues its rebound from the

bottom in 2015. The stability of growth allows to make conclusion that it’s

beyond a temporary fluctuation. PSR

Meeting Your Information NeedsPower Systems Research has been providing world class business and

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Russia ReportContinued from page 10