SpeakerProf. ( Dr. ) Ashok A. Patel

Vice ChancellorSardarkrushinagar Dantiwada Agricultural University

Sardarkrushinagar

National seminar on

‘Climate Change, Water Resource Management and Livelihood Adaptation

The talk coversThe talk coversGloble worming and climate changeGloble worming and climate changeRain water harvestingRain water harvestingSurface water managementSurface water managementRole of drip and mulching in arena of climate changeRole of drip and mulching in arena of climate changeEnvironment flowEnvironment flow

2

CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Sources of nitrous oxide and CO2

100 barrelsoil

Burning fossil fuel 43 t of CO2

1 t urea For fixing atmospheric N 4 barrels oil

Katyal (2015) JISSS 63(1)1

US (28%)

EU (23%)

Russia(11%)

Chaina(9%)

Rest of the world(18)

India(3%)

Japan(4%)

Heat Trapping Ability of GHG

CO2

CH4

N2O

Chlorofluorocarbon

1000 times more than CO2

300 times more than CO2

20 % more than CO2

Share of global cumulative energy – related CO2 emission between 1890 -

2000

Fossil fuel, factories, elect. production

Agriculture, digestive system of ruminants

Fertilizer used in agri.

Refrigeration, industrial processes

Global Warming

Bandyopadhyay (2013) JISSS 61(4) S98

Fertilizer use efficiency and loss (%)

Trends in agronomic efficiency(Response : kg grain/kg NPK)

NutrientNutrient Plant use Plant use efficiencyefficiency

Nutrient lossNutrient loss

NN 30 – 6030 – 60 40 – 7040 – 70PP 20 – 3020 – 30 70 – 8070 – 80KK 50 - 6050 - 60 40 - 5040 - 50

World during last 50 years(1950 to 2000)

ParticularParticular Per cent Per cent PopulationPopulation 100 rise100 riseCrop landCrop land 25 rise25 riseCOCO22 28 rise28 rise

Loss of top soilLoss of top soil 25 rise25 riseForest and wood landForest and wood land 33 fall33 fall

For forming 1 cm layer of soil requires 178 year, but requires only 8 years to destroy by soil erosion

Fertilizer consumption 1965 – 66 = 0.78 mt 2012 – 13 = 25.6 mt

Annual worldwide GHG emission in 2005 by different sectors

• Current yield gain rate for major cereals is 1.3% simple linear rate. But we require a 1.3% compound annual rate of yield gain to meet demand on existing crop land.

• If yield increases are slower than demand, substantial expansion of crop area, at thcarbon-rich natural ecosystemse expense of, will be needed to maintain food security

• Associated GHG emissions from such land use change will accelerate GHG emission rates, which could provide strong positive feedback to rate of climate change

• A Net deficit of 12% of water demand will be experienced by 2025

FactsFacts on atmospheric CO on atmospheric CO2 2 levels levels

• Land use change accounts for 33% of anthropogenic COLand use change accounts for 33% of anthropogenic CO22 emissions emissions (IPCC, 2007)(IPCC, 2007)

• Atmospheric [COAtmospheric [CO22] increased by 1.4 ppm/year during past 40 years, ] increased by 1.4 ppm/year during past 40 years, the rate is projected to increase by 1.9 ppm/yearthe rate is projected to increase by 1.9 ppm/year

• Assuming no change in Assuming no change in T T , yield of C3 crops should increase by 10–, yield of C3 crops should increase by 10–20% when [CO20% when [CO22] reaches 550 ppm (by 2100) ∼] reaches 550 ppm (by 2100) ∼ (Long (Long et al.et al., 2006; , 2006; Tubiello Tubiello et al.et al., 2007)., 2007).

Effect temperatureEffect temperature

• Kharif agriculture IS LESS EFFECTED BY CLIMATE Kharif agriculture IS LESS EFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE BUT will become vulnerable due to increased CHANGE BUT will become vulnerable due to increased incidence of weather extremes such as changes in rainy incidence of weather extremes such as changes in rainy days, rainfall intensity, duration and frequency of days, rainfall intensity, duration and frequency of drought and floods, diurnal asymmetry of temperature, drought and floods, diurnal asymmetry of temperature, change in humidity, and pest incidence and virulencechange in humidity, and pest incidence and virulence..

• Rabi crop production may become more Vulnerable due Rabi crop production may become more Vulnerable due to larger increase in temperature, asymmetry of day and to larger increase in temperature, asymmetry of day and night temperature and higher uncertainties in rainfall.night temperature and higher uncertainties in rainfall.

• Timely sown irrigated wheat production reduce by 6% & Timely sown irrigated wheat production reduce by 6% & late sown by 18% in 2020 late sown by 18% in 2020

• increase in temperature by 3increase in temperature by 300 C or more shall eliminate C or more shall eliminate positive effects of COpositive effects of CO22..

• 4% fall in irrigated rice yield and 6% fall in rain-fed rice 4% fall in irrigated rice yield and 6% fall in rain-fed rice are foreseen by 2020are foreseen by 2020

• changes in temperature and changes in temperature and precipitation will alter the distribution precipitation will alter the distribution of agro-ecological zonesof agro-ecological zones

• increase in PET will intensify drought increase in PET will intensify drought stress, in semi-arid tropics and stress, in semi-arid tropics and subtropicssubtropics

• carbon dioxide effects are positive due carbon dioxide effects are positive due to, greater WUE & higher rate of to, greater WUE & higher rate of photosynthesisphotosynthesis

• Higher frequency of droughts may Higher frequency of droughts may increase pressure on water suppliesincrease pressure on water supplies

• 1°C rise in temperature could lead to wheat yield losses of around 6 million tonnes per year in India

• Wheat is Climate-sensitive crop

• Increase in temperature during reproductive development of cotton and Soyabean will negatively influence yield and yield quality ( Salem et al., 2007; Kakani et al., 2005)

• Plant photosynthetic rate and dry matter production increase (or decrease) with respect to warmer temperatures due to effects on leaf initiation and expansion, developmental rate, and leaf-level photosynthetic rate (Fleisher et al., 2006a; Reddy et al., 1995a; Reddy et al., 1994b; Reddy et al., 1989a).

• Rice (Baker et al., 1995), soybean (Baker et al., 1989), peanut (Prasad et al., 2003), cowpea (Ahmed et al., 1993), wheat (Wheeler et al., 1996) and cotton (Reddy et al., 2000) showed no positive interactions with temperature and CO2.

PULSESPULSES

• Winter and Summer temperatures increase by 3.2° and 2.2°C by 2050 will reduce Winter and Summer temperatures increase by 3.2° and 2.2°C by 2050 will reduce pulse production due to reduction in total crop-cycle duration. pulse production due to reduction in total crop-cycle duration.

• Lower or higher extremes reduce massive flowering and pod setting in pigeonpea Lower or higher extremes reduce massive flowering and pod setting in pigeonpea • Daily Maximum temperature above 25°C affects seed yield by reducing flowering, Daily Maximum temperature above 25°C affects seed yield by reducing flowering,

fertilization and seed formation.fertilization and seed formation.• In Cool-season pulses filling of pods is seriously jeopardized at high temperature In Cool-season pulses filling of pods is seriously jeopardized at high temperature

leading low productivity leading low productivity • high temperature (> 25°C) during reproductive phase affect not only total biomass, but high temperature (> 25°C) during reproductive phase affect not only total biomass, but

also reduce pod setting by 30%, seeds per pod by 41% and seed weight by 36%, and also reduce pod setting by 30%, seeds per pod by 41% and seed weight by 36%, and as a result the overall productivity reduced drastically (48%). as a result the overall productivity reduced drastically (48%).

1. Annual normal rainy days varied from 10 days over extreme western parts of Rajasthan to the high frequency of 130 days over north-eastern parts of the country.

2. Frequency of rain days, heavy rainfall days decrease over central and many parts of north India; and increase over peninsular India.

3. Desert areas of the country experience increased number of wet days.4. Intensity of one-day extreme rainfall increase over coastal Andhra

Pradesh and its adjoining areas, Saurashtra and Kutch, Orissa, West Bengal, parts of northeast India, and east Rajasthan.

5. Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and some parts of north India experience decrease in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall

6. Flood risk increased over the eastern coast, West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Konkan region.

Climate Highlights(Guhathakurta et al. 2013)

• Rainfall will increase by 15–31%• 2°C rise in av. temp make monsoon

highly unpredictable.• 4°C rise may result in an extremely wet

monsoon that currently occur once in 100 years will occur once in 10 years

• More frequent droughts & floods• Decrease in rainy days & increase in

intensity• With decrease in 6% of rainfall, net

irrigation requirements increase by 29%• Impact on GWR due to changes in RF &

ET Patterns

•Sea-level-rise by 1.30 mm/yr along Indian coasts

•Future Projections indicate 0.48 m by end of century

Unnikrishnan 2012

consequencesconsequences • Last hundred years sea Last hundred years sea level rise was 10–20 cmlevel rise was 10–20 cm

• Sea-level rise during 1990 Sea-level rise during 1990 to 2100 will be 0.48 m to 2100 will be 0.48 m (IPCC, 2001a) (IPCC, 2001a)

• Greenland and Antarctic ice Greenland and Antarctic ice is sufficient to raise sea is sufficient to raise sea level by 70 m.level by 70 m.

SEA LEVEL SEA LEVEL RISE (METRE)RISE (METRE)

AREA LOST AREA LOST (SQ.KM)(SQ.KM) REMARKREMARK

One One 1400014000

1.1. Godavari-KrishnaGodavari-Krishna mangrove will mangrove will lose 1/4 of its arealose 1/4 of its area, , 2.2. Sundarbans, Andaman Sundarbans, Andaman IslandsIslands and Lakshadweep and Lakshadweep lose lose 1/4 1/4 of of

its area for 1m rise.its area for 1m rise.3.3. Seven Protectd areas Seven Protectd areas (Bhitarkanika, Chilka Lake, Point (Bhitarkanika, Chilka Lake, Point

Calimere, Interview Island, Lothian Island, Sajnakhali and Calimere, Interview Island, Lothian Island, Sajnakhali and Pulicat Lake) Pulicat Lake) experience 50% inundation experience 50% inundation

SixSix 6049760497 Sundarbans and Godavari-Krishna mangroves, and Rann of Sundarbans and Godavari-Krishna mangroves, and Rann of Kutch lose ½ of its areaKutch lose ½ of its area

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SEA LEVEL RISE AND AREA LOSS

Accelerated erosion in coastal wetlands. By 2080, 40-cm rise in global-mean sea level could cause loss of 22% of the world’s coastal wetlands (Nicholls, 2002).

increases in landward reach of sea waves and storm-surges•Mangroves sustain sea-level rise of 8 cm/100 years. Affect if rate exceeded 12 cm/100 years.

• seawater intrusion into surface waters & coastal aquifers (i.e. contamination);

• Raises the interface between the saline and fresh water

Every year the sea intrudes o.5 km / year in the Gujarat coast. This will again increase .

Groundwater salinization & higher water tables threaten many root crops, due to their low salt tolerance.

Water shortageRainfall variablity

Risk in farming Low crop yields

Increased crop water requirement due to temperature increase

Increased in put cost

Poor Agricultural

Returns

Challenges of farming

Elevated CO2

Challenges before NationChallenges before Nation

39

Limited Natural Resources Increasing Population Deforestation Scarcity of Water Limited availability of Power Ensuring food security Climatic Change

Transplanted paddy cultivation (flooded rice) releases GHG

Paddy with standing water Paddy with drip irrigation

Method of Method of plantingplanting

Nutrient managementNutrient management

Inorganic(SInorganic(S11)) INM(SINM(S22)) Organic(SOrganic(S33)) ControlControl(S(S44))

MeanMean

MM11 : SRI : SRI 0.420.42 0.830.83 1.201.20 0.280.28 0.680.68

MM22 : DS : DS 0.950.95 1.431.43 1.621.62 0.680.68 1.151.15

MM33 : NTP : NTP 0.970.97 1.671.67 2.072.07 0.880.88 1.401.40

MeanMean 0.780.78 1.281.28 1.631.63 0.610.61

CD @ 5%CD @ 5% M = 0.24M = 0.24 S = 0.10S = 0.10 MxS = 0.18MxS = 0.18 CV (%) = M 17CV (%) = M 17 CV (%) = S 10CV (%) = S 10

Methane emission (mg/m2/hr) as influenced by method of planting and nutrient management in paddy

(Mean of 7 samplings)

Method of Method of plantingplanting

Nutrient managementNutrient management

Inorganic(SInorganic(S11)) INM(SINM(S22)) Organic(SOrganic(S33)) Control(SControl(S44)) MeanMean

MM11 : SRI : SRI 42.942.9 38.138.1 30.830.8 18.818.8 32.632.6

MM22 : DS : DS 33.633.6 29.229.2 23.323.3 12.412.4 24.624.6

MM33 : NTP : NTP 30.8130.81 26.326.3 21.421.4 11.111.1 22.422.4

MeanMean 35.835.8 31.231.2 25.225.2 14.114.1

CD @ 5%CD @ 5% M = 3.2M = 3.2 S = 2.1S = 2.1 MxS = NSMxS = NS CV (%) = M 9CV (%) = M 9 CV (%) = S 7CV (%) = S 7

Nitrous oxide emission (µg/m2/hr) as influenced by method of planting and nutrient management in paddy (Mean of 7 samplings)

SUGGESTED STRATEGIES

1. Efficient utilization of available water resources•Bring more area under micro irrigation methods in phased manner through appropriate land use planning at least at taluka level

•Creating awareness about micro irrigation methods among the farmers through intensive training

• Permission for new tube wells should be granted only to those who adopt MIS

•Government should encourage those farmers showing inclination to adopt all possible water saving techniques and facilitate for getting premium price for their produce

•Appropriate technologies for saline water use needs to be developed and popularized

•Fluoride problem need to be tackled in an integrated way

•Tank rehabilitation programme

•Promotion and support to community water conservation and recharge structure

•Increase vegetative cover in catchments areas for reducing runoff, reducing sediment loss and increasing recharge

•In situ water harvesting through sub soiling

•Open well recharging

•Construction of percolation pits in the waste lands at 25 to 30 m apart

•Farm pond scheme under Sujalam- Suphalam

•Subsidizing and popularizing roof water harvesting through enforcement

2. Augmentation of water resources

Impacts of MIS

There will be saving of water to the tune of 59 BCM valued at Rs.45000 crore.

The energy thus saved is estimated to be valued at Rs. 38000 crore. The cumulative saving in fertilizer is estimated at Rs. 18000 crore. Additional employment generation for about 21 m people. The additional cumulative income to the farmers on account of

increased yield arriving from the adoption of MIS would be of the order of about Rs. 64000 crore by the end of XI FYP and there after annual additional income of Rs. 19000 crore.

ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWSSENSITIVITY TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES

DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT

Flows are affected - reasons are manyFlows are affected - reasons are many • DamsDams - block, fragment and regulate flows – time, magnitude, duration and frequency of - block, fragment and regulate flows – time, magnitude, duration and frequency of

flows flows • Diversion of waterDiversion of water – complete / partial diversion of river/ stream - – complete / partial diversion of river/ stream - • DeforestationDeforestation - Degradation of the river catchment leading to reduced flows – - Degradation of the river catchment leading to reduced flows – Most of Most of

the riversthe rivers• MiningMining in the catchments – in the catchments – • Sand miningSand mining on river bed – on river bed – • PollutionPollution• Glacial meltGlacial melt – climate change – climate change

What is environmental flow ?What is environmental flow ?

• To allow the river to complete its hydrological cycle To allow the river to complete its hydrological cycle • To Carry out various ecological and evolutionary processesTo Carry out various ecological and evolutionary processes• To enable all beings including humans to benefit from the ecosystem services provided To enable all beings including humans to benefit from the ecosystem services provided

by the river and its flowsby the river and its flows

Brisbane Declaration (2007): Environmental flows (EFs) are the quantity, timing, duration, frequency and quality of flows required to sustain freshwater, estuarine, and near shore ecosystems and the human livelihoods and well being that depend on them.

Ideally - A river has right to all its flows In reality - Flows that should be left in the river

• Ecological Ecological – aquatic biodiversity, feeding and breeding and habitats affected , – aquatic biodiversity, feeding and breeding and habitats affected , invasion of exotic and introduced speciesinvasion of exotic and introduced species

• Morphological Morphological – sand, silt and sediment deposit declining, channel – sand, silt and sediment deposit declining, channel • Hydraulic connectivity Hydraulic connectivity – lateral and horizontal connectivity disrupted – lateral and horizontal connectivity disrupted • Social issues Social issues – deteriorating water quantity and quality leading to drinking water – deteriorating water quantity and quality leading to drinking water

scarcityscarcity• EconomicEconomic – loss from fisheries and farming to the river communities and the – loss from fisheries and farming to the river communities and the

statestate• Spiritual and cultural needs - Spiritual and cultural needs - sacred groves, temple fish sanctuaries, sacred groves, temple fish sanctuaries,

Major flow related impacts due to abstractions

Why should a river flow from source to sea ?Why should a river flow from source to sea ?

• Is a river just water flowing Is a river just water flowing waste to seawaste to sea• Is river an Is river an ecosystemecosystem in itself or a drain for carrying water in itself or a drain for carrying water• Does a river have any functions or is just a conduit -Does a river have any functions or is just a conduit -evolutionary and ecological evolutionary and ecological

functionsfunctions • delivering rich nutrientsdelivering rich nutrients to the sea to the sea • sustaining sustaining fisheriesfisheries and and livelihoods; livelihoods; • protecting wetlands with their capacity to protecting wetlands with their capacity to filter out pollutantsfilter out pollutants;;• providing habitatproviding habitat for a rich diversity of aquatic life for a rich diversity of aquatic life• safeguarding safeguarding fertile deltasfertile deltas; ; • protecting protecting water qualitywater quality; ; • maintaining salt and sediment maintaining salt and sediment balancesbalances; ;

According to the natural flow paradigm of Poff et al. (1997), the flow regime is the primary driving force that influences aquatic ecosystems. Flow is considered as the master variable because it exerts great impact on aquatic habitat, river morphology, biotic life, river connectivity and water quality.

Based on the hypothesis that the health of a river progressively deteriorates as more and more water is withdrawn, and it significantly falls if the flow is below some threshold value, the concept of minimum flows in rivers came into practice in the 1970s.

Inception of Environmental Flows

Different Flows have different functionsDifferent Flows have different functions

• E flows is just allocating 20 % of lean season flows E flows is just allocating 20 % of lean season flows • High flows High flows - important for channel maintenance, bird breeding, - important for channel maintenance, bird breeding,

algae control, wetland flooding and maintenance of riparian algae control, wetland flooding and maintenance of riparian vegetation. vegetation.

• Moderate flows Moderate flows - critical for cycling of organic matter from river - critical for cycling of organic matter from river banks and for fish migration banks and for fish migration

• Low flows Low flows - necessary for fish spawning, water quality - necessary for fish spawning, water quality maintenance, the use of the river by local people, etc.maintenance, the use of the river by local people, etc.

  

E- flows ensure a flow regime capable of sustaining a complex set of aquatic habitats and ecosystem processes and are referred to as “environmental flows”, “environmental water requirements”, “environmental flow requirements”, “environmental water demand” etc.

Environmental flows are necessary to maintain the health and biodiversity of water bodies, including rivers, coastal waters, wetlands (mangroves, sea grass beds, floodplains) and estuaries. Note that besides the amount, one should also specify the temporal pattern of the flows.

Environmental Flows and Water Resources Management in India

a. Most of the Indian rivers are excessively exploited to fulfill ever-increasing demand from hydro-power generation, agricultural, industrial, municipal sectors and to control floods. There is seasonal nature of rainfall and maximum structures for flow regulations.

b. Out of the 30 world river basins identified as global level priorities for the protection of aquatic biodiversity (Groombridge and Jenkins, 1998), nine are in India and were singled out due to their extensive and continuing development.

c. These basins are the Cauvery, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Godavari, Indus, Krishna, Mahanadi, Narmada, Pennar and Tapi. Except for the Ganges-Brahmaputra, all these basins have also been categorized as “strongly affected” by flow fragmentation and regulation (Nilsson et al., 2005).

“The current paradigm of river conservation programmes in India focuses mostly on “Cleaning of Rivers” through sewage and industrial pollution management and no attempt is made to treat the river ecosystem as a whole. Various challenges

that rivers face today reinforce the necessity to consider implementing environmental flows (or E-Flows) in water resource management and for

improving the river health”

E-Flows are increasingly recognized as a key to the maintenance of ecological integrity of the rivers, their associated ecosystems and the goods and services

provided by them.

Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) Methodologies

The assessment of E-Flows aims to identify the quantity, quality and distribution of flow patterns (timing) along the length of a river and provides a balance between the use and protection of natural water resources for people and biodiversity.

Multi-disciplinary technical processes are required to carry out detailed studies relating to hydrology, hydraulics, geomorphology, pollution etc.

While many countries in the world today have an E-Flows policy, the debate in India has graduated from a rather narrow focus on ‘minimum’ flows to a much comprehensive ‘environmental’ flows.

Roles in implementationRoles in implementation

• Governments at national and sub national levelsGovernments at national and sub national levels - through new policy frameworks - nature / - through new policy frameworks - nature / river is also a ‘river is also a ‘legitimate user of water’ legitimate user of water’ and only if water is left for nature can human needs be and only if water is left for nature can human needs be fulfilled.fulfilled.    

• Research institutions and river expertsResearch institutions and river experts - arriving at the optimum flows including trade offs, - arriving at the optimum flows including trade offs, incentives and alternativesincentives and alternatives

•    • Direct river dependent communitiesDirect river dependent communities - learn from their wisdom and integrate their experiences - learn from their wisdom and integrate their experiences

while setting flows.while setting flows.

• Voluntary organisations / NGOs/ community based organisationsVoluntary organisations / NGOs/ community based organisations - catalyst or mediator - catalyst or mediator

The Way Forward :Our Priorities, Next Steps

• Improve Resources use efficiency in agriculture• Develop climate smart villages by integrating hydrologists, crop

specialists, and agro-meteorolgists• Develop early warning and forecasting systems village wise• Water grid concept should be developed at micro level• Treated effluents from domestic and industries needs to be utilized

and qualitative concerns of food needs to be undertaken• Development of low energy irrigation systems

• Rehabilitation of existing irrigation projects to improve water use efficiency

• Capacity building of farmers to climate change• Afforestation on degraded forests, wastelands as well as river banks

to control soil conservation, increase recharge of ground water and preventing flooding of rivers and siltation of water reservoirs

• Increase of irrigation efficiency from 35% to 50% in surface irrigation systems

• Development of 80 Mha of wastelands

The Way Forward:Our Priorities, Next Steps

• Compelling farmers to adopt MIS in canal and ground water command areas

• Prevention of water pollution by banning the discharge of untreated sewage and effluent in rivers

• Wastewater (18.4 million m3/day) needs to be utilized for irrigation after their proper treatment

• Encouraging Public Private Partnership, including civil society organizations and stakeholders in water resources development and conservation

Strategies to sustain crop yields in the arena of climate Strategies to sustain crop yields in the arena of climate changechange

• Modification of crop calendars, i.e., timing or location of cropping Modification of crop calendars, i.e., timing or location of cropping activities (Bates et al. 2008)to eliminate losses due to climate activities (Bates et al. 2008)to eliminate losses due to climate change. change.

• Revise Intensity duration frequency relationships for designing Revise Intensity duration frequency relationships for designing structuresstructures

• Integrate research of agronomy, plant physiology engineering Integrate research of agronomy, plant physiology engineering and genetics to raise crop yield potential, nutrient and water use and genetics to raise crop yield potential, nutrient and water use efficiencyefficiency

Thank you

The world has enough for every one’s need, but not for every one’s greed – --by Mahatma Gandhi

THANKSTHANKS