ppt template (2015) for conference centre · implement is a data-driven decision making process...
TRANSCRIPT
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ICAO’s Agenda for SAFETY
Catalin Radu Deputy Director, Aviation Safety AFI Aviation Week Air Navigation Bureau – ICAO 22-25 May 2017
SAFE TRAVELS Committed to leave no one behind
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Our Aspirational Safety Goal
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Fatalities Trend for Scheduled Commercial Flights (2011 – 2016)
Fatalities showed a spike during 2014, and then recovered in 2015
2016
Estimate
3.7 Bill Pax1
367
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3 1: https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/traffic-growth-and-airline-profitability-were-highlights-of-air-transport-in-2016.aspx
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Fatalities Trend for Scheduled Commercial Flights (2011 – 2016)
Fatal accidents have been stable
2016
8
Estimate
4
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We are not that far…
In the past, some regions have already achieved zero fatalities
Regional Accident Statistics: 2015 Regional Accident Statistics: 2013
Regional Accident Statistics: 2014
For 2016 (non validated results)
PA (NACC/SAM) and AFI (WACAF/ESAF)
ZERO fatalities
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Air traffic is predicted to double by 2030
How can we ensure the safe realization of this growth?
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Risks/barriers to achieve our goal
• Effective Implementation of SARPs
• ICAO’s Safety priorities: Operational Risks
• Current and emerging issues
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Effective Implementation of State Safety Oversight
Effective implementation (%) results through USOAP CMA
Global average increase of 1.5% per year*
World Average: 64,74%
8 * Based on the world average of EI from the period 2011 (60.17) to 2016 (64.74)
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AFI region NCLB
3.4 %
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WHAT WE HAVE TODAY (Effective Implementation of SARPs)
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Safe Travels: ICAO’s agenda for Safety
22 May 2017
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Evolving Safety Performance • iMPLEMENT is a data-driven decision
making process that: – Assesses the current status of aviation (Safety Briefings)
– Identifies the best solutions in order to maintain or improve the aviation capability of the State (Solution Center)
– Evaluates the needs of the aviation system (money, people, infrastructure) (CAA HR Tools, PAINT/iAID, etc.)
– Identifies resources through existing national, regional, or global mechanisms (ASIAP, SAFE Fund, etc.)
– Showcases the real added value of air transport and the socio-economic return on investment of aviation
A ‘NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND’ Initiative:
Facilitating Data-Driven Decisions for Aviation
* Site: www.icao.int/iMPLEMENT
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NEEDS TODAY
Money
People
Infrastructure
SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AVIATION
ENHANCED SAFETY
ECONOMIC DRIVER
RESOURCING THE NEEDS
Aviation Development
Fund
ICAO GSI Database
Aviation Development
Network
State Safety Briefing
Solution Center
SEC FAL
Global Cost
Database
ENVIRO
SIMS for SSP
Identify Risks Prioritize and Offer Solutions Identifying the needs Resourcing the
needs
SSP Prerequisites
Aviation Benefits
Reporting on current State risks
Prioritizing risks & providing corrective actions
Providing practical solutions to prioritized risks
Technical Cooperation Assistance
Infrastructure
People Structure
PAINT
Training Needs Analysis
CAA-HR Toolkit
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GASP 2017-2019 Roadmap • Goals:
– Ensure that safety initiatives deliver the intended benefits associated with the GASP objectives
– Reduce inconsistencies and duplication of efforts
• Specific safety initiatives aimed at States, Regions and Industry
• Complements the GANP – Some ASBUs address safety – Implementation of ASBUs will require safety
assessments prior to implementation
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Regional Safety Oversight Organizations (RSOOs)
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Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness Programmes (COSCAPs)
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22 May 2017
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WHAT’S NEXT ? (Effective Implementation of SARPs)
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Safe Travels: ICAO’s agenda for Safety
22 May 2017
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Evolution of Analysis: Safety Margins
Safety Margin
Risk-based prioritization model based on a State’s Traffic and the level of
Effective Implementation (EI) in the related technical areas at risk
(Operations, Air Navigation, Support Functions)
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Evolution of Analysis: Safety Margins
Safety Margin
Risk-based prioritization model based on a State’s Traffic and the level of
Effective Implementation (EI) in the related technical areas at risk
(Operations, Air Navigation, Support Functions)
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SSP pre-requisites
Identifies pre-requisites to an effective and sustainable SSP implementation
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A subset of the approx. 380 USOAP PQs with more granularity than the 60% EI threshold;
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Global Aviation Safety Oversight System (endorsed during the Global RSOO Forum - Swaziland)
• Empower and strengthen regional mechanism (i.e. RSOO, RAIO, etc.) to form the building blocks of a global safety oversight system
• ICAO responsible for establishing and maintaining an inventory of competent safety oversight providers and the tasks and functions that they provide
• Regional mechanisms and safety oversight providers to demonstrate competence in the tasks and functions that they provide to a State, in order to qualify as an ICAO recognized safety oversight provider
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State Oversight Audit Results
ICAO Library
A RSOP
B RSOP
C RSOP
D RSOP
E RSOP
F RSOP
G RSOP
D RSOP
Global Aviation Safety Oversight System (GASOS)
A RSOP
F RSOP
ICAO recognized safety oversight provider (RSOP)
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Evolution of RASGs • RASGs as the leaders for the management of regional
operational risk environment, as reflected in the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)
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20XX – 20YY
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Evolution of RASGs • RASGs as the leaders for the management of regional
operational risk environment, as reflected in the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)
• RASGs to assist States in identifying hazards and defining their own specific targets
– From 60% EI to an acceptable Safety Margin for each State – Mapping the risk
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Evolution of RASGs • RASGs as the leaders for the management of regional
operational risk environment, as reflected in the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)
• RASGs to assist States in identifying hazards and defining their own specific targets
– From 60% EI to an acceptable Safety Margin for each State – Mapping the risk
• RASGs to harmonize and avoid overlaps – Between States – Between RASGs
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Risks/barriers to achieve our goal
• Effective Implementation of SARPs
• ICAO’s Safety priorities: Operational Risks
• Current and emerging issues
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Safety Priorities: Operational Risks
Runway Safety related (RS)
Loss of Control-Inflight (LOC-I)
Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)
LOC-I
Other accident priorities?
(i.e. by Region)
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Information Sharing and Exchange SERVICE PROVIDERS STATES ICAO
Airports ANSP Airlines Business Aviation
SMS SSP
KPI KPI KPI KPI SPI
Core Safety Performance
Indicators
Provide States with tools to prioritize implementation
TOOLS
Manufacturers
KPI
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Analysis to manage the hazards
OVER 30 Applications for safety analysis and
Information
MORE THAN 3000+ Registered users
www.icao.int/safety/ISTARS
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Risk Mitigation: Managing the Hazards
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Data driven decision making processes using data from States, Industry, and other stakeholders
Airport Hazards (from METARs, NOTAMs, and USOAP)
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Risks/barriers to achieve our goal
• Effective Implementation of SARPs
• ICAO’s Safety priorities: Operational Risks
• Current and emerging issues
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Current and Emerging Issues
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Cyber Safety RPAS Space Transportation Global Tracking Conflict Zones
What next? Mental Health
GPS interruption Cargo Safety
Supersonic aircraft
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SUMMARY
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Safe Travels: ICAO’s agenda for Safety
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Phase I:Effective safety oversight
Phase II:SSP implementation
Phase III:Predictive risk management
Sub-phase I-A Sub-phase I-B
StatesRegion
sIndustr
y
SSI-1 SSI-2 SSI-3
RRI-1
RCI-1
RXI-1 RXI-2 RXI-3 RXI-4
RCI-2 RCI-3 RCI-4
RRI-2 RRI-3 RRI-4
ISI-1
IRI-1 IRI-2 IRI-3
ICI-1 ICI-2 ICI-3 ICI-4
IXI-1 IXI-2 IXI-3
ISI-2
SRI-1
SCI-1
SXI-1 SXI-2 SXI-3 SXI-4 SXI-5
SCI-2 SCI-3 SCI-4 SCI-5
SRI-2 SRI-3 SRI-4 SRI-5
SSI-4 SSI-5 SSI-6
RSI-4RSI-3RSI-2RSI-1
Effective Implementation Safety Priorities
60% Safety Margin
SSP Pre-requisites
RSOO/GASOS
RASGs Sharing and Exchange Safety Info
Data Mgm Risk
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Effective Implementation Operational Risk 4%
15%
56%
22%
25%
3%
13%
20%
2%
Scheduled Commercial flights on airplanes above 5.7t 2012-2016
Global Ave: 64%
USOAP Audit Results
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Effective Implementation Operational Risk
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Real-Time Monitoring Aviation’s Health
Combining State audits with State/Industry operational data
– Through SMS and SSP – Protection of information/operational
data through Amendment 1 to Annex 19
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Real-Time Monitoring Aviation’s Health Estimated Normal Range
Identifying potential risks One aircraft was at 60kts with 1000 feet remaining
SERVICE PROVIDERS STATES
Airports ANSP Airlines Business Aviation
SMS SSP
Manu-facturers
Collect Data
Mitigate Risk (If needed)
Monitor (Identify trends)
Assess Risk (Is it Safe?)
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Our Aspirational Safety Goal
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UPCOMING EVENTS
40 1 May 2017
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Next Council Off-site Strategy Meeting • Continuing the theme of ‘No Country Left Behind’
• Date: September 2017
• Topic: Improving the implementation of Global Plans
• 3rd IWAF to be held in Africa, with the theme “Financing the Aviation Infrastructure”
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RPAS Symposium for AFI Region 17-18 July, Abuja, Nigeria • A forum for participants to exchange ideas and implementation experiences and
contribute to the future of RPAS and UAS in Africa. • The symposia will provide an important information-sharing opportunity for
regulators, service providers, operational personnel and all aviation professionals involved in RPAS or UAS activities.
• Followed by a WACAF regional RPAS workshop 19-21 July.
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Safety Management Regional Symposia 4 Regional Symposia, starting from Q3 2017 • A forum for participants to exchange ideas and implementation experiences and contribute to the future
of safety management. • The symposia will provide an important information-sharing opportunity for regulators, service providers,
operational personnel and all aviation professionals involved in safety-management activities. • To include a workshop with hands-on exercises • Dates:
– APAC and MID Regions: Hosted by Singapore / 12-15 September 2017 – EUR/NAT Region: Hosted by the EC and Estonian Presidency of the EU, Tallinn / 16-18 October 2017 – NACC and SAM Regions: 2018 (exact dates and location to be confirmed) – ESAF and WACAF Regions: 2018 (exact dates and location to be confirmed)
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GANIS / SANIS 2017
Sustainability and enhancement of safety and air navigation system performance • Two back-to-back symposiums from 11 – 15 December 2017 in Montréal, Canada
– 2nd Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium (GANIS) to discuss issues and chart next steps to achieve a seamless global aviation system
– 1st Safety and Air Navigation Implementation Symposium (SANIS) to offer a performance-based implementation methodology including the first Global RASG/PIRG Forum
• Includes an Industry exhibition of current and emerging technologies – Showcase solutions which will provide a snapshot of the global air navigation industry – Provide insight on how all stakeholders can work together to address technical, operational, regulatory and economic
challenges
• A crucial networking and knowledge-sharing opportunity – Presentations from ICAO, international and regional organizations, standards-making organizations and leading industry
stakeholders
• Will lay the foundation for the 13th AN-Conference in 2018
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THANK YOU!
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