practical (case study) forecasting tropical cyclones regional training workshop on severe weather...
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![Page 1: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Practical (case study)
Forecasting Tropical cyclones
Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services
(Macao, China, 8-13 April 2013)
1. Son-tinh (1223)
2. Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 2: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012 Initial
![Page 3: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012 Initial
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 4: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012 Initial
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 5: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012 Initial
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 6: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012 Initial
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 7: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012 Initial
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 8: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
JMA Surface analysis at 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
TS SON-TINH (1223)998 hPa11.6N 125.8E NW 13KTMAX WINDS 35KT
![Page 9: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
JMA 850hPa analysis at 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 10: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
JMA 500hPa analysis at 12UTC, 24 Oct. 2012
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
![Page 11: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
Determine the center position of
1. FT24 (18UTC, 25 Oct.)
2. FT48 (18UTC, 26 Oct.)
3. FT72 (18UTC, 27 Oct.)
Describe how to determine those centers.
![Page 12: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)
TS SON-TINH (1223)996 hPa11.9N 122.3E WNW 14KTMAX WINDS 40KT
Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.
![Page 13: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Practical (case study)
Forecasting Tropical cyclones
1. Son-tinh (1223)
2. Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 14: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012 Initial
![Page 15: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012 Initial
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 16: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012 Initial
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 17: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012 Initial
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 18: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012 Initial
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 19: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012 Initial
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 20: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
JMA Surface analysis at 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
TS KAI-TAK (1213)992 hPa17.5N 126.5E WNW SLOWLYMAX WINDS 40KT
![Page 21: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
JMA 850hPa analysis at 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 22: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
JMA 500hPa analysis at 00UTC, 14 Aug. 2012
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 23: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.
Determine the center position of
1. FT24 (06UTC, 15 AUg.)
2. FT48 (06UTC, 16 Oct.)
3. FT72 (06UTC, 17 Oct.)
Describe how to determine those centers.
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
![Page 24: Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b260f55034607418b5d6f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)
TS KAI-TAK (1213)992 hPa17.7N 125.2E WNW 07KTMAX WINDS 40KT
Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.