pradeep samudra - glgi 4g update 12.18.07
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GLGi: 4G Cellular - The What, Why and When
Pradeep Samudra
Independent Consultant
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2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
Council Member Biography
Pradeep Samudra, now an independent consultant at Tellabs, was most recently(10/06) a Vice President at Samsung Telecommunications. He has over 25 years ofexperience in the telecommunications industry. He is a holder of 7 recent patentsand 6 pending applications in the area of Wireless/IP/MPLS/ATM routing and is
knowledgeable about the business and technologies of 3G/4G/CDMA/GSM/WiMAX/xDSL/FTTx/VoIP and IPTV technologies. He is also experienced indeveloping and marketing broadband and wireless network systems and products.Mr. Samudra has spoken at internationally recognized conferences on topicsranging from market and technology forecasts, planning and deployment. He was amember of the Board of Directors for the prestigious industry standards alliance,ATIS. Recently he managed nationwide VoIP deployment and an IPTV trial in theUS. He is knowledgeable in the telecom vertical segment, key players, theirstrategies, prospects for agents of change and in next-gen wireless technologiessuch as 3G/3G LTE/Super 3G and 4G, broadband access and core networks.
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Table of Contents
A Quick Review of Cellular Technologies
Definition of 4G
Why do we need 4G? Technologies, standards bodiesand vendors/proponents
The market dynamic: A global perspective
Global Trends
The Time Line for 4G
Enablers and Inhibitors
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2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
About GLG InstituteGLG Institute (GLGiSM) is a professional organization focused on educatingbusiness and investment professionals through in-person meetings. It isdesigned to revolutionize the professional education market by putting thepower of programming into the hands of the GLG community.
GLGi hosts hundreds of Seminars worldwide each year.
GLGi clients receive two seats to all Seminars in all Practice Areas.
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Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts
John AronsohnVice President, TMT
Gerson Lehrman Group
850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
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212-984-3673
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Managing Director, Sales and Marketing
Gerson Lehrman Group
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Process Manager
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212-750-1435
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IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMERBy making contact with this/these Council Members andparticipating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agree that you must not seek outmaterial non-public or confidential information from Council Members. You understand and agree that the
information and material provided by Council Members is provided for your own insight and educationalpurposes and may not be redistributed or displayed in any form without the prior written consent of GersonLehrman Group. You agree to keep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the businessinformation of Gerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until suchinformation becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure may be required bylaw, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they may have and understand the CouncilMembers may be constrained by obligations or agreements in their ability to consult on certain topics andanswer certain questions. Please note that Council Members do not provide investment advice, nor do theyprovide professional opinions. Council Members who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship is established from their participation in this project.
You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is not responsible for the contentof materials produced by Council Members. You understand and agree that you will not hold Council Membersor Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided to you by theCouncil Members. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoeverarising from your attendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but notlimited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, and you agree torelease Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilities that result from yourparticipation in this event or the information provided by Council Members, regardless of whether or not suchliability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise. You acknowledge and agree that GersonLehrman Group shall not be liable for any incidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any other
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Pradeep Samudra December 2007 Page 7 of 27
Year
Commercialized
GSM/UMTS
(3GPP)
CDMA
(3GPP2)
IEEE
(802.16, 20, 22)
Capacity
(bps)2G 1998 GSM 1X RTT 30K-90 K
2.5G 2002 GPRS/EDGE 1X EVDOr0 150K
3G 2006 WCDMA 1X EVDOrA 400K-700K
3.5-9G 2006-8 HSPA+/OFDMA nX EVDOrB/C2007: 802.16e
(WiMAX)1M-15M
nextG ?OFDMA/MIMO
(LTE/SAE?)UMB (TEF?)
2009: 802.16m
(WiMAX+?)?
4GPP?/4G Forum
Cellular Technologies 2G-4G
LTE/SAE Long Term Evolution (3GPP)/System Architecture EvolutionMIMO Multiple Input/Multiple Output
OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple AccessTEF Technology Evolution Framework (3GPP2/CDG)UMB Ultra Mobile Broadband
3G = 1st Gen of Mobile Broadband4G = Wireline Substitutable and Mobile
1. What is 4G?
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Wireless Technology Evolution to 3.9G
CDMA(IS-95A)
GSM
CDMA
(IS-95B)
cdma2000
1xEV-DORev 0/A/B
UMB802.20
2G
2.5G
3G
3.5G
3.9G
GPRS
E-GPRSEDGE
HSDPAFDD/TDD
TDMAIS-136
WCDMAFDD/TDD
TD-SCDMA
LCR-TDD
HSUPAFDD/TDD
HSPA+LTE
E-UTRA
IEEE802.16
FixedWiMAX
802.16d
MobileWiMAX802.16e
WiBRO
IEEE802.11
802.11g
802.11a
802.11g
802.11n
CDMA GSM/UMTS IEEE Cellular IEEE LAN
1. What is 4G?
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ITUs Vision for the Next Gen Access
1. What is 4G?
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The Next Gen Vision
Distinctions between Portability, Nomadicity and Mobility are eliminated.Connectivity is ABCAlways Best Connected.
Commercial services in multi-user environments targeting peak
data rates approaching 100 Mbps for highly mobile users andup to 1 Gbps for nomadic(low mobility or stationery) users
1. High data rates Efficient spectrum utilization (up to 10 b/s/Hz)
Advanced antenna and modulation techniques
100 Mbps @250 KMph or 1 Gbps nomadic/portable
2. IP/Web based services QoS for peer-peer services
3. Reconfigurable/dynamicservice provisionable
May use sensor/cognitive networks
4. Seamless roamingamong heterogeneous
networks
2G/2.5G/3G/3.xG/LTE, WLAN/WMAN/WPAN,DVB, DAB
Backward compatible
5. Scalable up and down In cost, performance and power
6. Open Access? Any device, any app, any network, any place..
1. What is 4G?
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Goal: A Unified Architecture1. What is 4G?
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Integration Challenge: The Next Gen Universe1. What is 4G?
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The Service Continuity Challenge1. What is 4G?
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3G: Some Unfinished Business
Financial
Balance sheet cleanup(debt reduction)
Capacity Utilization
Business Models forNew Services
Technical
Improved coverage(e.g., residences)
Inter technology roaming
Inter carrier compensation(esp. data services)
The goal of Universal, Ubiquitous, and Interoperable Serviceat affordable price has not yet been achieved.
1. What is 4G?
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So What is 4G?
Another incremental increase over 3.9G? 5 7 14 40 Mbps of HSPA Just another fat pipe?
Limited to OFDMA?
WiMAX+, UMB and LTE are variations (all use OFDMA DL).
Non-compatible Heterogeneous Networks? Non-roaming, closed networks
Non-IMS based? P2P, Web 2.0 domination
With a definition not based on IMT-A, 4G can have a difficult time meetingcost and connectivity goals
1. What is 4G?
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A Look at Fundamental Requirements
Human SenseSound Sight Knowledge
Network Generation
1G-2G Voice - Low Speed Data
3G Voice Images Hypertext (HT)
4G Voice, Speech VideoFiles (Speech, HT,
Video)
Typical Bandwidth 10-80 Kbps 1 - 20 Mbps 0.5-10 Mbps
Required Latency
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Trends in New Applications2. Why 4G?Mobile marketing andadvertising
Business potential viewed with great enthusiasm withindominant and leading markets.
Mobile Search Knee for takeoff : replicate desktop success
M-commerce/M-Wallet SMS messaging enables interactivity with other forms ofentertainment (e.g., Polling)., Credit purchases.
Mobile Gaming Evolving into Casual Gaming with challenges fordistribution and revenue collection.
Mobile e-Mail Going mass scale as productivity enhancer to move into rankand file employees beyond executives and field sales force.
Presence, MMS, InstantConferencing, push-to-video, and mobile news
MusicStation (UK) from Vodafone: Omniphones deal withTelenor (Sweden), 3 (HK), and Vodacom (SA).
Content Focus shifting from Major Media Brand - Formal Contentto User Generated Content in mobile networks. Photoswapping, mobile social media, one-to-one communications
Revenue sharing Music and video sharing, with subscribers via ads and P2PE.g., SeeMeTV by 3 allows video uploaders to get paid whentheir content is downloaded.
Webco Platform Deals with (Vodafone/MySpace, Sprint/GOOG),Android
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Key Business Trends
1. Global Telecom Spending Patterns Realigning Early growth in international capex, US capex lag
2. Rise in Mobile Data Revenues Internationally ARPUs up by 25% CAGR, US [< 5% CAGR]
3. 50% Rise in Mobile Voice Subscribers [+1.4B] International +100%, US +15%
Emerging markets to remain unsaturated through 2012
Mobile broadband subscribers up 275% [+750M]
4. New Mobile Services Taking Hold SK/Japan/Nordics Provide impetus to mobile data services
5. Operators Consolidating Domestically While Expanding Overseas E.g., AT&T Mobility India, Telefonica (+TIM) CALA
2. Why 4G?
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Examples of Mobile Data Services
Country Operator Service
1 USA T-Mobile BlackBerry Email and IM2 USA SprintNextel, VZW Mobile Broadband (EvDOrA)
3 UK 3 Mobile TV and Video Streaming
4 Italy Vodafone Casa FastWEB
5 Italy 3 Mobile TV Broadcasting
6 Egypt Vodafone MiniCall BubbleTALK Voice SMS
7 Japan NTT DoCoMo DCMX Mobile Payment
8 Japan KDDI EZ Chaku-uta Full
9 UK O2 SMS
10 So. Korea SKT Cyworld Mobile
2. Why 4G?
Mobile TV Technology OptionsUnicast 3G - MachBlue by Orange (UK)Bcast OFDM - Vcast by Verizon (US)Bcast DVB-H - KT, SKT (SK)
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Projected Capacity Needs - Developed Market (EU)2. Why 4G?
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A Perspective: Wireline Demand
Source: The FTTH Council
2. Why 4G?
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The Three Horses of 3G
Organization Technology Strength Weakness Migration 4G Prospects
3GPPUMTS -
WCDMAVoice Data
LTE
(2010)Strong
3GPP2 cdma2000 -CDMA
Voice Data UMB(2009)
Weak
IEEEWiMAX -
OFDMAData Voice
802.16m(2009)
Mixed
3. The Global Dynamic
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The Four Horses of 4G
SupplierPortfolio 4G Prospects
LTE UMB WiMAX+ APAC CALA EMEA NA
Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson x x
Nokia-Siemens x Nortel x
Motorola x x ? ? APAC Asia Pacific [SKT, NTT, Vodafone]CALA Central and Latin America [Telefonica]EMEA Europe, Middle East, Africa [Vodafone, DT, Telefonica]NA North America [Sprint, Verizon and AT&T]
- Strong, - Medium, - Weak
3. The Global Dynamic
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Global Mobile Penetration Rates
2006
2012
MarketsSaturated by/before 2012 Room to Grow Beyond 2012
, July 2007
81% of the 1.4B new additionswill be pre-paid with ARPUs of$6 (vs post-paid ARPU of $37),using GSM (2G) for voice,in effect, delaying bandwidthand service deployments tothese markets.
3. The Global Dynamic
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Major Mobile Operators - Europe
OperatorTotal Subs
(M)
3G Devices
(M)Wireline Wireless Major Markets
1 Telefonica+O2 217 Spain, Italy, Brazil, CALA, Europe2 Vodafone 200 18.5 Minor UK, US, FR, Germany, India + 22 other3 DT 112 Germany, Other EU4 FT+Orange 102 9 France, UK Several other5 TeliaSonera 82 Nordic, Baltic, CIS, Turkey,6 Telenor 80 Norway, Sweden, Finland, RU + 7 other7 PT 39 Portugal + 8 other8 Telecom Austria 11 Austria9 3 (HWL) 10 10 x UK+10 other mkts
10 TDC 10 Denmark11 KPN 9 Netherlands, Belgium, Germany12 Bouygues SA 9 x France13 Swisscom 5 Switzerland14 Belgacom 4.4 Belgium
3. The Global Dynamic
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Data Service Revenues: A Case Study (Sprint)
Sprints WiMAX Strategy (XOHM) of Open Access creates new openings in their walled garden.
, Oct 2007
Google is close to a deal with VerizonWireless and SprintNextel over its new mobilephone. An agreement is likely to reached within two weeks for launch of a Google phonein the middle of 2008. The central feature of the Google handset will be an openoperatingsystem that will encourage developers to create apps beyond search,
interactive communications and social networking.(Wall Street Journal Oct 31, 2007)
As an open access operator, challengesrelated to security, privacy and billing are
compounded due to complexity of multiplevirtual providers. Billing options to include flat(advanced payment) or transaction based.
By 2012, sales of unsubsidized devices(non-laptop) are expected to contributesignificantly to the top line. These includehandsets, cameras, printers, Internet tablets,PDAs, gaming and video devices.
Elephant in the Room: How to compensate for ICI?(i.e., Network Roaming Agreements*)
Mechanisms (e.g., IPSphere) not likely to be in place till 09-10* Sprint exited agreement with Clearwire partly due to lack of a viable ICI
(Reuters, 11/9/07).
Key Requisite: Open Access
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Accelerators of the 4G Timeline
Business Need and Opportunity
Technology Pull
Rate of Innovation
Disruptive Technologies
Standardization
New Revenue Opportunities
Developments in the Wireline World
4. The 4G Timeline
700 MHz may prove to be the most significant accelerator of 4G
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3G Reaching Maturity and Profitability Development and Deployment of IMS and Multi-service
Interoperable Networking Validation of Radio Technologies Cost and Availability of Spectrum
Migration Cost Migrating CDMA2000 to 1xEVDOrA (Verizon Wireless) $6B
over 3 years for a nationwide footprint
Viable Business Model for Service Offering Backhaul Capacity Issues Related to Content Ownership
Concurrent Development of the Ecosystem
What Can Give 4G a Pause?
4. The 4G Timeline
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Beneficiaries of 3G/4G Timeline
Mobile Operators (basic service revenue) Top 4 - VZW AT&T T-Mobile SprintNextel
Operators providing service to other verticals e.g., healthcare, automotive, retail, etc.
Vendors providing product related service to operators ERIC, ALU, CSCO, TLAB, CIEN, ADC, JNPR, NSN Vendors providing professional services to operators Application SW providers mostly startups Webcos: GOOG, YHOO, MSFT, Adobe Security appliance makers mostly small pre-/post-IPO. Quality/measurement tools maker and user companies
Agilant, Anritsu, small private cos
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Summary
4G Definition Informal
4G at Hype Stage
2012-15 Likely Deployment Near-term Investment Opportunities
3G Application Developers
Spectrum Lessees
Selected Equipment Vendors
Global Operators
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Backup Slides
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Competitive Access TechnologiesWLAN
802.11n
Cellular
3G
Cellular
3.9Gcdma2000
Cellular
3.9GUMTS
802.16e/
WiMAX
1 Technology OFDM/TDM T/F/CDMA CDMA/OFDMA
OFDMA/FDMA
OFDMA/OFDMA
2 Spectrum Unlicensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed
3 BW Allocn Fixed Semi-fixed Flexible Flexible Flexible
4 Data rate* 70Mbps 1Mbps 70Mbps 40Mbps 70Mbps
5 Distance 50 M 2-5 KM 2-5 KM 2-5 KM 2-5 KM
6 Voice VoIP TDM CDMA/VoIP TDM/VoIP VoIP
7 Video Streaming,HD
Streaming Streaming,HD
Streaming,HD
Streaming,HD
8 Security MAC/IP IP IP IP MAC/IP
9 QoS MAC TDM/ATM MAC MAC MAC
10 Mobility Portable Mobile Mobile Mobile Mobile
11 Cost (incr) Low Medium High High Medium
* Typical of the several possibleBoldfont = strength of the technology
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WCDMA (3GPP) Performance Roadmap
Latency (ms)
Capacity DL(Mbps/5 MHz)
Peak DL(Mbps/5 MHz)
Capacity UL(Mbps/5 MHz)
Peak UL(Mbps/5 MHz)
100
2.5
4.3
1
0.384
75
2.5 (4-5)
14
1-2
~2
30-50
4-5
14
~2
4-6
10-15 10
4-5* 8-10
14* 25
~2 4-5
4-6 12.5
HSDPA
Enh UL HSDPA Ph2 (GRAKE)
MBMS
Enh UL Ph2
3G LTE
150
1
0.384
1
0.064
2004 2005
R99
2006 2007-8 2009
WCDMA OFDM
(Targets)
OFDM on20 MHzgives 100/ 50 Mbpsin DL / ULresp. 2x2ant.ennaassumedfor the DL
* With 2x2 MIMO in DLthese numbers will behigher
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Cdma2000 Roadmap(Source: CDG)
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2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
About GLG Institute
GLG Institute (GLGiSM) is a professional organization focused on educatingbusiness and investment professionals through in-person meetings. It isdesigned to revolutionize the professional education market by putting thepower of programming into the hands of the GLG community.
GLGi hosts hundreds of Seminars worldwide each year.
GLGi clients receive two seats to all Seminars in all Practice Areas.
GLGis website enables clients to:
Propose Seminar topics, agenda items and locations
View and RSVP to scheduled and proposed Seminars
Receive a daily briefing with new posts on your favorite tickers, subjectareas and from trusted Council Members
Share Seminar details with colleagues or friends
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Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts
Nick Goodman
Vice President
Gerson Lehrman Group
850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10022
Christine Ruane
Senior Product Manager
Gerson Lehrman Group
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New York, NY 10022
212-984-8505
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IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMER By making contact with this/these CouncilMembers and participating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agreethat you must not seek out material non-public or confidential information from Council Members.
You understand and agree that the information and material provided by Council Members isprovided for your own insight and educational purposes and may not be redistributed ordisplayed in any form without the prior written consent of Gerson Lehrman Group. You agree tokeep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the business information ofGerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until suchinformation becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure maybe required by law, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they mayhave and understand the Council Members may be constrained by obligations or agreements intheir ability to consult on certain topics and answer certain questions. Please note that Council
Members do not provide investment advice, nor do they provide professional opinions. CouncilMembers who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship isestablished from their participation in this project.
You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is notresponsible for the content of materials produced by Council Members. You understand andagree that you will not hold Council Members or Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracyor completeness of the information provided to you by the Council Members. You acknowledgeand agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoever arising from your
attendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but notlimited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, andyou agree to release Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilitiesthat result from your participation in this event or the information provided by Council Members,regardless of whether or not such liability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability orotherwise. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall not be liable for anyincidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any other indirect damages, even ifadvised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event or use ofthe information provided at this event.