Pramod AggarwalIndian Agricultural Research

InstituteNew Delhi, India

Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: Opportunities and

Constraints

Agriculture led development in India

Food production increased from 65 in 1960s to 230 million tons in 2008

Land saved - more than 50 million ha Calorie intake increased from 1900 to

2500 Kcal/capita/day Poverty decreased in rural areas from

51% (in 1977) to 27% (in 2004) Human development index improved

from 0.41 (in 1972) to 0.619 (in 2007-08)

And yet problems persist

1/4th of the world’s hungry 40% of the world’s malnourished

children and women Lagging in meeting MDGs Given a choice, 40% farmers would

like to leave farming (NSSO, 2005)

Climate change may further compound the situation

Source: IPCC2007; Adapted from Krishna kumar et al. 2009

2020 2050 2080

Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change: Controlled environment facilities at Delhi

Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Wheat

Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Maize

Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Sorghum

Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Soybean

These impact assessments have uncertainties

Possible errors in climate models, crop models and data used

No link with change in future irrigation water availability

No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments, (e.g.

in crop improvement), and socio-economic scenarios not considered

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of most C3 crops by 10-20%.

A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of many crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures.

Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally/remain unaffected by 2020 but decrease by 10-40% by 2100.

Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, winter maize, sorghum and millets.

Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage.

Climate change may also provide new opportunities

Apple yields in Himachal have decreased due to inadequate chilling

Apple cultivation shifted upwards

Farmers changed to vegetables earning more income

New varieties with lesser chilling requirement being introduced

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-200

1

Years

Yie

ld (

To

ns

)

Adapting agriculture to climate change:Setting goals of adaptation

•Indian national agricultural policy aims a:•Growth rate of 4% per annum•Growth based on efficiency and conservation of resources•Growth that is inclusive and equitable

•Goals of adaptation•Producing more (diversified) food to meet demand•Stabilizing production in climate stressed seasons•Raising input use efficiency to address the increasing competition for land, water, capital, and labour settlements•Greater focus on poor

Adapting to climate change by raising crop production: Large yield gaps in crops provide an opportunity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Year

Gra

in y

ield

, t/

ha

Current yield

Biophysical potential yield

Biological potential yield

Yield gap2: Limited by climate, soil, and irrigation

Yield gap1: Limited by crop management, pests, and risk management approaches

Demand 2020

Agronomic options can meet goals of adaptation in short-term

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Impact + Sowingdate

+ Variety + Irrigationefficiency

+ Fertilizeruse

efficiency

+ Additionalinputs

Adaptation options

Net

vu

lner

abili

ty, %

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60S

oil

tes

t

Pla

nt

test

Lea

f co

lou

r

cha

rt

Nit

ri.

inh

ibit

or

Fer

t.

pla

cem

ent

Zer

o t

illa

ge

Inte

gra

ted

N

use

Pre

cisi

on

farm

ing

Co

st o

f re

du

cin

g N

lo

ss (

Rs.

kg-1

N)

Adaptation/mitigation options may not always be economically viable: Example of N use efficiency in rice

Pathak, H. (2010) Nutr. Cycling Agro-ecosystem.

Cost of one kg N in urea

National Food Security Mission Aims to bridge yield gaps

Launched in 2007 in 311 districts to raise production by 20 million tons: Better seeds Assured inputs-

nutrients, irrigation, machinery

Farmers training Demos

Climate change may limit the potential adaptation window of current technologies

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1 2 3 4 5

Yie

ld g

ap

, t/h

a

Climatic risks are common in IndiaClimatic risks are common in India

70% of land under cultivation prone to drought

12% of land (40 million hectares) to floods

8% of land (8,000 km coastline) to cyclones

A major disaster occurs every 2-3 years

30 million people affected annually

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOISource: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI

Managing current and future short-term climatic risks is crucial

Short periods of drought can cause large yield losses: Sorghum in Rajasthan

0

20

40

60

80

100

1-Jul 16-Jul 31-Jul 15-Aug 30-Aug 14-Sep 29-Sep 14-Oct

Period of drought

Yie

ld l

os

s,

%

Providing value-added weather services Weak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and

dissemination

Promoting insurance for climatic risk management scientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives;

awareness

Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks

Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years are risk free

Compensating farmers for environmental services Technical know-how; costs of production go up

Sharing experiences across similar regions Validation in new scenarios of development and climate risks

Adaptation to increasing climatic risks: Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks

Policy responses have consistently evolved with successive drought events

1877

Drought Events

Major Policy Interventions

Famine Codes

1965

Green Revolution and FCI

Scarcity relief

1972

Employment Generation Programmes

Drought relief

1979

ContingencyCropPlan

Droughtmanagement

1987

WatershedApproach

Watermanagement

2002

Improved weather forecasts and their applications

Knowledge management

Each round represent death of one million people

Each round represent around fifty million people affected Source: ADPC/MOA

2009

Early Warning Response Programs

NATIONAL CROP

WEATHER WATCH GROUP

RAINFALL MONITORING

RESERVOIR

CROP MONITORING

CENTRAL

STATE

DISTRICT

SUB-DISTRICT

VILLAGE

RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING

FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY

EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

DRINKING WATER

CATTLE CARE

Source: MOA

Drought early warning and response system has been conceptualized

Despite such policy responses, climatic risks still cause considerable loss

Key reasons Widespread

poverty Limited

human capital Poor

governance including limited stakeholder analysis, and dissemination of knowledge

Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50

Poverty (2005) Population at $2/day or less

Human capital literacy rate

Conclusions

1. Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for meeting food demand in future even in the face of increasing climatic risks.

2. In short-term, several options relating to technology transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be needed.

3. Climate change may provide new opportunities for growing crops in regions/periods not considered suitable earlier. Need to manage them.

4. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today and can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks.

Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change

Clear identification of stakeholders: Farmers Policy Planners Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon markets)

Stakeholders interest in adaptive capacity: Understanding vulnerabilities of the region Overall enhancement of adaptive capacity (not agriculture

alone) Short-term action plans Integrated, region specific solutions; and not by themes.

New partnerships are required: Other science departments (earth

sciences, e.g.) Development departments (e.g. irrigation

and disaster management agencies) Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon

marketing) Cooperatives (e.g. for food, seed and feed

banks)

Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change