Pranab J. BaruahID: 4670485

UK Industrial Energy Demand

Contemporary Issues in Climate Change

15-MAR-2010Norwich Business SchoolUniversity of East AngliaMBA 2010

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

Industrial Energy Consumption

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

ttoe

Total Consumption

49% decrease in 38 years, 1970-2007 (@1.29%)

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Petroleum

Renewables

Heat sold

Electricity

Natural gas

Town gas

Coke oven gas

Other solid fuel

Coke & breeze

Coal

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Coal

Coke & breeze

Other solid fuel

Coke oven gas

Town gas

Natural gas

Electricity

Heat sold

Renewables

Petroleum

Industrial Energy Consumption by Fuel

% of Total

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

Sectoral consumption trend

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

year

mto

e

Domestic

Industry

Services

Transport

Total change in Industry-7.1 mtoe (1990-2007)

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

Industry sub-sector analysis

Total change (between 1990-2007, top) andcontribution from changing output and intensity

0.190.23

1.46-0.64 -0.07

-0.59

0.450.340.40

3.43

-3.66

1.45-0.81

-1.43

-5.81

-0.13-1.03-0.69-0.55

0.38

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

mto

e

Output Intensity

-0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6

0.1 1.6

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

mto

e

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

Our Scenario

General AssumptionsIndustrial energy = f (output, intensity)Energy consumption growth is same as sub-sector growth

-GDP growth: 2% & Population growth 0.65% (70 mil in 2030)-Shift to manufacturing-Effects from increasing population embedded in GDP growth-Manufacturing growth is contributing significantly to GDP growth.

Consumption in mtoe, intensity in mtoe/unit, growth rate in percentage

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

Demand = base consumption (2007) * growth rate * energy intensity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Pet

aJ

Unclassified

Other industries

Construction

Paper, printing, publishing

Textiles, leather, clothing

Food, drink & tobacco

Vehicles

Electrical engineering

Chemicals

Iron & steel, Non-Ferrous Metals,Mechanical Engineering

Projected Energy Demand

UK Energy Demand: Industry 15-MAR-2010 UEA MBA

Fuel Mix

Fuel mix will be decided on the basis of :-Current consumption trend of different fuel types -Dominant fuel used in the high growth industry

Thank you ! Questions ?

-Other industries and unclassified category has large impact.Also in unclassified energy intensity is increasing fastest.-Contrary to intuition, steel and iron energy has one of the highest energy intensity-Forecasting proper growth rate is crucial to the exercise