pratelli, petri, rindone & de bari - input2012

Prof. Antonio Pratelli

A feasibility study for new transport

connections between Italia and Algeria

A feasibility study for new transport

connections between Italia and Algeria

Seventh International Conference on

10-12 May 2012

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Archit., Univ.of Cagliari (Italy)

Informatics and Urban and Regional Planning

Polo Sistemi Logistici di Livorno - Laboratorio LOGIT,

University of Pisa

Prof. Antonio Pratelli

Eng. Massimiliano Petri

Doct. Corrado Rindone

Doct. Francescalberto de Bari

The present study is part of the Executive Scientific Project 2 in the

ItalMed Project which aim is to elaborate feasibility studies for new

transport connections between Italia and Algeria.

AIM

INTRODUCTION

Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

AIM

The main objective of the study is to increase the degree of economic

integration of the two countries’ production systems through

improving commercial exchanges and direct investments by Italian

companies in Algeria.

THE STUDY

The analysis is divided in four parts:

1) Definition of hypothesis of scheduled services between Italian

ports/airports and Algeria;

2) Comparative analysis of the competitiveness of hypothetical

INTRODUCTION


2) Comparative analysis of the competitiveness of hypothetical

scheduled services in relation to existing services;

3) Estimation of the potential demand for the scheduled services

envisaged in the project;

4) Analysis of present and future constraints to the development of the

proposed routes.

In this presentation only the first and third part where described for

their geographical and modeling approach.

ALGERIAN ECONOMY

Algerian economy is nowadays based on production and manufacture of

hydrocarbons (natural gas and oil).

Natural gas fields are almost inexhaustible so that they ensure the future

continuity of the most important item in the budget of the country.

INTRODUCTION


In the last years the value of italian export to Algeria is increasing while import

of Algerian goods to Italy is fluctuating.

Among Italian exports to Algeria there are thermal and hydraulic turbines and

other machines that produce mechanical energy.

The Algerian government is generally committed to open the country's

economy and attract more foreign investment, particularly in areas not related

to hydrocarbons. The expansion of the construction sector should be guided

by the government program to improve infrastructure and building economic

expansion for the growing young population.

ALGERIAN ECONOMY

A large part of the active population works in agriculture and the Government

is committed to this area, strongly rooted in the culture of the country, trying

to increase their yields through programs for the expansion of irrigated areas.

Despite the efforts of the Algerian government, the country is still heavily

dependent on other countries by importing large quantities of food and

INTRODUCTION


dependent on other countries by importing large quantities of food and

agricultural products. This is another outlet for many Italian farms.

The success of the ‘Made in Italy’ in the algerian market (usually characterized

by the 4 A – Agroalimentare -Food, Arredamento-furniture, Abbigliamento-

clothing, Automazione industriale-industrial automation) occurs mainly

through the industrial automation sector, which represents over 75% of the

Algerian demand of Italian goods, confirming its status as a priority sector for

our exports.

ACTUAL IMPORT-EXPORT TRENDS

Data of European section of ISTAT (Italian Statistical Agency) called COWEB.

INTRODUCTION

Total import and export

between Italy and Algeria

in the years 2009 and 2010


The import market from

Algeria is limited to only

20 Italian provinces

where the first 4 cover

more than 98% of the

total. The result is a very

concentrated market

in the years 2009 and 2010

ACTUAL IMPORT-EXPORT TRENDS

INTRODUCTION

Exports from Algeria has

a greater geographical

spread, but smaller

quantities of goods (5.5%

of imports, that’s to say


of imports, that’s to say

21.6 mil. vs. € 394 mil. €).

PASSENGERS TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR ALGERIA

INTRODUCTION

Data from the European

project DATELINE were

collected to evaluate the

demand from passengers

transport from EU to Algeria.

this project has elaborated a

In the central-southern Italy the only area with a number of

Long Distance Journeys to Africa not low is Lazio region.

The European Countries with more LD journeys are France,

Germany, United Kingdom and Spain; the proposed routes

must create a network with these Countries with marittime

ro-ro types or air connections.


this project has elaborated a

survey to European citizens

(interviews with a sample of

more than 86,000 residents in

the European Union and their

journeys with distance greater

than 100 km) and it was

reconstructed the O/D Matrix

for all Long Distance Journey

and relative to all transport

modes.

ro-ro types or air connections.

This first part consisted in the

research and analysis of data and

information related to existing

connections and about the actual

quantities of goods exported and

imported from Algeria so to allow

DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES

EXISTING SERVICES

The analysis of existing routes

showed that the connections are


imported from Algeria so to allow

linking transport supply with

demand.

With regard to information on

existing routes between the two

countries, information from

specialized journals have been

collected (Messaggero Marittimo

and Avvisatore Marittimo of

September 2011).

showed that the connections are

prevalent to the area north-central of

Italy, while the central area between

the south of Tuscany and Lazio is

totally absent of links. In practice this

area is comprised in the center

Tyrrhenian-Adriatic Logistics Platform

(as called in the National Logistics

Plan).

In the central Italy Pisa Airport is one of the more important with many links with

France, Germany and France.


EXISTING SERVICES

50

60Links with Pisa Galilei Airport


0

10

20

30

40

50

Spain Germany England France * Others

In terms of air traffic the company with the largest number of links between these four

Countries and Italy is Ryanair that has its Hub in Pisa Airport.


EXISTING SERVICES

120

140136

Ryanair Network


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PIS

A (Ita

lia)

Alg

he

ro (Ita

lia)

Ba

ri (Italia

)B

olo

gn

a (Ita

lia)

Brin

disi (Ita

lia)

Ca

glia

ri (Italia

)M

ilan

o (Ita

lia)

Pa

lerm

o (Ita

lia)

Ro

ma

(Italia

)T

rap

an

i (Italia

)V

en

ezia

(Italia

)O

slo (N

orve

gia

)M

arra

ke

sh (M

aro

cco)

Fe

z (Ma

rocco

)B

ruxe

lles (B

elg

io)

Billu

nd

(Da

nim

arca

)T

alllin

n (E

ston

ia)

Ta

mp

ere

(Fin

lan

dia

)M

arsig

lia (F

ran

cia)

Pa

rigi (F

ran

cia)

Bre

ma

(Ge

rma

nia

)D

usse

ldo

rf (Ge

rma

nia

)F

ran

cofo

rte (G

erm

an

ia)

Ka

rlsruh

e-B

ad

en

…M

on

aco

(Ge

rma

nia

)R

od

i (Gre

cia)

Brim

ing

ha

m (U

K)

Bo

urn

em

ou

th (U

K)

Bristo

l (UK

)E

ast M

idla

nd

s (UK

)G

lasg

ow

(UK

)Le

ed

s (UK

)Live

rpo

ol (U

K)

Lon

dra

(UK

)M

an

che

ster (U

K)

Du

blin

o (Irla

nd

a)

Rig

a (Le

tton

ia)

Ka

un

as (Litu

an

ia)

Ma

ltaE

ind

ho

ven

(Pa

esi B

assi)

Bre

slavia

(Po

lon

ia)

Cra

covia

(Po

lon

ia)

Po

rto (P

orto

ga

llo)

Fa

ro (P

orto

ga

llo)

Bra

tislava

(Slo

vacch

ia)

Alica

nte

(Sp

ag

na

)B

arce

lon

a (S

pa

gn

a)

Fu

erte

ven

tura

(Sp

ag

na

)G

iron

a (S

pa

gn

a)

Gra

n C

an

aria

(Sp

ag

na

)Ib

iza (S

pa

gn

a)

Ma

drid

(Sp

ag

na

)M

ala

ga

(Sp

ag

na

)R

eu

s (Sp

ag

na

)S

iviglia

(Sp

ag

na

)S

tocco

lma

(Sve

zia)

Te

ne

rife (S

pa

gn

a)

Va

len

cia (S

pa

gn

a)

46

21 2231

14

26

69

12

49

34

19

48

24

12

73

14 11 1322

46

23

4653

12 15 1323

12

2934

23 23

41

26

63

16 20 2228

1522

31 29

18

56

2818

46

31 28

4248

2837

49

34 34

Lin

ks

nu

mb

er

Airport

After Milan and Rome airports, the biggest number

of connections are linked to Pisa Airport

The proposed services are four, one with air and three maritime links.


PROPOSED SERVICES


A transport cost/time model was elaborated

for italian and algerian territory.

Moreover, by means of cost functions, the

travel impedance for each arc was evaluated so

to construct the gravitational area of each port

DEMAND ESTIMATION

DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES


to construct the gravitational area of each port

both for Italy side than Algeria one.

DEMAND ESTIMATION



Time cost functions

DEMAND ESTIMATION



Monetary cost

functions

The first results of the model

with the gravitational area

analysis show how the demand

Italy-side, intercepted from the

port of Livorno, is mainly

DEMAND ESTIMATION



port of Livorno, is mainly

regional, due to the

conformation of the Italian road

network with a possible

expansion to Emilia Romagna

and Veneto regions. Instead, the

Civitavecchia and Naples ports

have a greater gravitational

basin so, therefore, to fully

justify the suggested routes.

A Stated Preferences Survey was elaborated with an interview (always

ongoing) to some companies that have been identified as possible users of the

shipping services designed or that currently trades with Algeria.

DEMAND ESTIMATION

WORKING IN PROGRESS


The first results of the survey show that the potential attractiveness is very

high for both imports than exports to Algeria, but, at present, this possibility is

limited by high port costs (eg. cost of goods handling) and excessive

bureaucracy impact (eg. number of documents and others).

DEMAND ESTIMATION

SOME PROBLEMS

Shipping cost (euro) comparison for some African Countries


DEMAND ESTIMATION

SOME PROBLEMS

Shipping time (days) comparison for some African Countries


pratelli, petri, rindone & de bari - input2012

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