pre-feasibility study_final report.pdf

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Pre-Feasibility Study for the Sustainable Urban Transport

Master Plan for Windhoek including Rehoboth, Okahandja and

Hosea Kutako International Airport

Pre-Feasibility Study for

The Sustainable

Urban Transport Master Plan for

Windhoek including Rehoboth, Okahandja

and Hosea Kutako International Airport

Final Report

June 2015

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The responsibility of the project and its implementation lies with the Ministry of Works and

Transport and the City of Windhoek.

Consultancy services provided by

Project Team: 1. Ministry of Works and Transport

Cedric Limbo

2. City of Windhoek

Clarence Rupingena

3. GIZ GmbH

Prof. Dr. Heinrich Semar

Gregor Schmorl

Michael Engelskirchen

4. Consulting Team

Prof. Dr. Ashraf Hamed

Bruno F. Hegner

Wolfgang Sievers

Georgis Emmanouilidis

Christiane Maier

Yulia Usatova

and

In cooperation with

Contact Cedric Limbo

Ministry of Works and Transport

Windhoek

Email: [email protected]

Clarence Rupingena

City of Windhoek

Email:

[email protected]

Prof. Dr. Heinrich Semar

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale

Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

P.O Box 8016,Windhoek, Namibia,

[email protected]

Windhoek, June 2015

DORNIERCONSULTING

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Table of Contents

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. 10

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 13

2 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 23

Background ............................................................................................................................... 23

Objectives ................................................................................................................................. 24

Report Structure ....................................................................................................................... 24

3 KEY DEVELOPMENT ISSUES ..................................................................................................... 27

3.1.1 Brief description of socio-economic aspects .................................................................. 27

3.1.2 Land Use Consideration .................................................................................................. 30

3.1.3 Location of the Lines ....................................................................................................... 33

4 INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARK OF SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AND OPTIONS ........................... 39

Systems for high-capacity transit – features and best practices .............................................. 39

4.1.1 Standard Bus Technology ............................................................................................... 39

4.1.2 BRT Technologies ............................................................................................................ 40

4.1.3 LRT Technologies ............................................................................................................ 42

5 DEFINITION OF TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEM PARAMETERS ....................................................... 46

BRT / LRT Systems Capacity and Parameters ........................................................................... 46

5.1.1 Capacity and Parameters of different types of BRT ....................................................... 47

5.1.2 Capacity and Parameters of different types of LRT ........................................................ 48

5.1.3 Capacities and System Parameters for Windhoek ......................................................... 49

Technology Response to Demand Development till 2032 ....................................................... 50

Risks .......................................................................................................................................... 52

6 OPERATIONAL CONCEPT ......................................................................................................... 53

Issues of System upgrades at capacity borders........................................................................ 53

6.1.1 Upgrade from Bus to BRT1 ............................................................................................. 53

6.1.2 Upgrade from BRT1 to BRT2 ........................................................................................... 53

6.1.3 Upgrade from BRT1 to LRT ............................................................................................. 54

6.1.4 Upgrade from LRT to BRT2 ............................................................................................. 54

6.1.5 Recommendation ........................................................................................................... 54

Network Development ............................................................................................................. 54

6.2.1 2017 – The base Bus network ......................................................................................... 54

6.2.2 2032 – Full Network ........................................................................................................ 57

6.2.3 Implementation steps towards full network .................................................................. 60

Pre-Feasibility Study for the Sustainable Urban Transport Master

Plan for Windhoek including Rehoboth, Okahandja and Hosea

Kutako International Airport

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June 2015

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Operation characteristics ......................................................................................................... 66

6.3.1 2017 Operation characteristics ...................................................................................... 66



6.3.4 2032 Operation characteristics – BRT only ..................................................................... 68

6.3.5 2032 Operation characteristics – first LRT line ............................................................... 69

6.3.6 Synopsis of operational Data .......................................................................................... 69

7 ANALYSIS AND CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF BRT AND LRT ROUTES / DESIGN AND ROUTE

REFINEMENT .......................................................................................................................... 74

Screening of the BRT and LRT corridors ................................................................................... 74

Positioning of Line – BRT and LRT ............................................................................................ 76

7.2.1 BRT geometric layout considerations ............................................................................. 78

7.2.2 BRT pavement considerations ........................................................................................ 84

7.2.3 LRT design considerations ............................................................................................. 85

8 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ............................................................ 88

Approach .................................................................................................................................. 88

Documentation of the analysis parameters ............................................................................. 88

Financial Analysis of Option 1 (BRT+LRT) ................................................................................. 90

8.3.1 Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (100%) ................................................................ 90

8.3.2 Lower Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (-10%) ..................................................................... 93

8.3.3 Higher Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (+10%) .................................................................... 95

Financial Analysis of Option 2 (BRT+BRT2) ............................................................................... 96

8.4.1 Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2 (100%) ............................................................. 97

8.4.2 Lower Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2 (-10%) ................................................................... 99

8.4.3 Higher Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (+10%) .................................................................. 100

8.4.4 Comparison of Subsidy between the Options .............................................................. 102

8.4.5 Risk Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................ 102

8.4.6 Adjustment to inflation................................................................................................. 104

Socio-Economic Analysis ........................................................................................................ 105

8.5.1 Environmental Aspects ................................................................................................. 105

8.5.2 Socio-Economic Effects ................................................................................................. 108

9 IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS AND RISKS ................................................................... 111

Implementation Arrangements .............................................................................................. 111

Risks and Mitigation Strategies .............................................................................................. 111

10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................ 115




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List of Annexes

Annex 1: Results of the Financial model BRT1-BRT2 2032 – Standard, Low, and High Demand Scenarios

Annex 2: Results of the Financial model BRT1-LRT 2032 – Standard, Low, and High Demand Scenarios

Annex 3: Direct Financial Benefit to the Households from New Bus Services in 2015 (also annexed to

Corporate Plan, as Part 3)

Annex 4: Screening of the Lines 1 and 2 (also annexed as to the Corporate Plan Part 1C)

Related Materials:

Corporate Plan for Development of the Public Transport System in Windhoek (Deliverable of the WP 1)




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Table of Figures

Figure 1-1: Public Transport Network of Windhoek, 2032 15

Figure 1-2: Lines for Pre-Feasibility Investigation 17

Figure 1-3: Introduction of the BRT and BRT2/LRT Elements in the Network 20

Figure 3-1: Income band of waged households in the region 2013 29

Figure 3-2: Main sources of household income in the project areas in 2013 29

Figure 3-3: The polycentric development 30

Figure 3-4: BRT-LRT lines - road reserve for future corridors 30

Figure 3-5: Bay platform for short-turning trains 32

Figure 3-6: Intermediate terminal with split platforms for longer turning trains 32

Figure 3-7: Bus Depot Layout 32

Figure 3-8: Typical storage yard for track and overhead material 33

Figure 3-9: Location of the T1 line – Line Alignment 34

Figure 3-10: Location of the T4 line – Route Alignment 36

Figure 3-11: Location of the Lines T1, T11, and T2 – Route Alignments 38

Figure 4-1: Typical articulated bus with three-door arrangement for standard bus service of London

Transport 39

Figure 4-2: Bogota Transmilenio BRT system with double lanes and no level crossing, neither for

pedestrians nor for car traffic (Heavy BRT) 41

Figure 4-3: Nantes BRT system with separated bus lane, but level crossings (Light BRT) 42

Figure 4-4: Figure 4-5: Double articulated bus (Length about 24 meter) as in use in the city of Aachen 42

Figure 4-6: Low-Floor tram vehicle on road-sharing section in the German city of Bochum. 43

Figure 4-7: Coupled pair of Low-Floor-Vehicles on Light-Rail section with separated right-of-way, but

level crossing with robots in the city of Düsseldorf, Germany 44

Figure 4-8: Typical example for light-metro is Dockland-Railway mostly operating on elevated structures

in the former London harbour area. 45

Figure 5-1: System Capacity 46

Figure 5-2: Capacity of Transportation Systems in Different Systems (example of NewYork North

Line) 47

Figure 5-3: Capacities of different types of BRT, Comparison of Systems 47

Figure 5-4: Capacities of different types of LRT, Comparison of Systems 48

Figure 5-5: Comparison of Public Transport systems feasible for Windhoek 49

Figure 5-6: Synopsis of capacity range per transport system 50

Figure 5-7: System Parameters in 2015 51

Figure 5-8: System Parameters in 2022 51




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Figure 5-9: System Parameters 2027 51

Figure 5-10: System Parameters 2032 52

Figure 6-1: Paris Trans-Val-Marne BRT system – End of bus lane / Changing from standard bus operation

to BRT operation 53

Figure 6-2: Bus network 2017 (Scenario 2A as presented on workshop in October 2014) 56

Figure 6-3: BRT Lines 57

Figure 6-4: BRT Lines 58

Figure 6-5: Full Network Map 59

Figure 6-6: Bus network 2022 with the first BRT route along Independence Avenue (Soweto Market to

CBS) 61

Figure 6-7: Bus network 2027 with BRT routes on Independence Ave. and Monte Christo Road 63

Figure 6-8: Bus network 2027 – Alternative - with BRT routes on Independence Ave and Florence

Nightingale instead of Monte Christo 65

Figure 6-9: Operation Characteristics 2017 66

Figure 6-10 Operation Characteristics 2022 67

Figure 6-11: Operation Characteristics 2027 68

Figure 6-12: Operation Characteristics 2032 (BRT) 68

Figure 6-13: Figure 6-14: Operation Characteristics 2032 – First LRT Line 69

Figure 6-15: Operational Data 2015-2032 70

Figure 7-1: BRT Layout 80

Figure 7-2: Consideration for a BRT Station 80

Figure 7-3: Priorisation considerations 81

Figure 7-4: Traffic Interaction Considerations (T-junction Design– Minor Street joins BRT) 82

Figure 7-5: Traffic Interaction Considerations (Major Street joins BRT) 82

Figure 7-6: Example of Possible Traffic Interaction (Major Street – BRT Junction Design) 83

Figure 7-7: Traffic Interaction Considerations (Roundabout Design) 84

Figure 7-8: General Pavement Structure 84

Figure 7-9: Guideway Geometry LRT 85

Figure 7-10: Types of Landscape adjacent to LRT 85

Figure 7-11: General Dimension for a centre platform 86

Figure 7-12: General Dimension for a side platform 86

Figure 7-13: Pavement Structure LRT Operations 87

Figure 8-1: Subsidy Allocation Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (NAD Million) 92

Figure 8-2: Subsidy Allocation Low Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (NAD Million) 94

Figure 8-3: Subsidy Allocation High Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (NAD Million) 96

Figure 8-4: Subsidy of Option 2 BRT1-BRT2 98




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Figure 8-5: Subsidy of Option 2 BRT1-BRT2 101

Figure 8-6: Sensitivity analysis – Subsidy Level Option 1 103

Figure 8-7: Sensitivity analysis – Subsidy Level Option 2 103

Figure 8-8 Sensitivity analysis – NPV on Operational Activity – Option 1 104

Figure 8-9 Sensitivity analysis – NPV on Operational Activity – Option 2 104




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List of Tables

Table 1-1: Elements of the High-Capacity Public Transport System in Windhoek 18

Table 2-1: Structure of the Pre-Feasibility Study 24

Table 3-1: Socio-Economic Parameters in the Project Area 28

Table 7-1: Positioning of Line – Centre vs. Outside 76

Table 7-2: Effect of BRT bus length on Roundabouts 78

Table 7-3: Road Design Elements 79

Table 8-1: Components of the financial analysis 88

Table 8-2: Financial Results of Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT 92

Table 8-3: Financial Results of Low Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT 94

Table 8-4: Financial Results of High Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT 96

Table 8-5: Financial Results of Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2 98

Table 8-6: Financial Results of High Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2 102

Table 8-7: Subsidy Options for BRT1 – LRT and BRT1-BRT2 102

Table 8-8: Final Adjustment to Inflation 105

Table 8-9: Noise Level Construction Equipment 107

Table 10-1: Costs of the BRT-BRT2 System – Standard Demand 118

Table 10-2: Revenues of the BRT-BRT2 System – Standard Demand 118

Table 10-3: Costs of the BRT-BRT2 System – Higher Demand 119

Table 10-4: Revenues of the BRT-BRT2 System – Higher Demand 119

Table 10-5: Costs of the BRT-BRT2 System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032) 120

Table 10-6: Revenues of the BRT-BRT2 System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032) 120

Table 10-7: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – Standard Demand 122

Table 10-8: Revenues of the BRT-LRT System– Standard Demand 122

Table 10-9: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – High Demand 123

Table 10-10: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – High Demand 123

Table 10-11: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032) 124

Table 10-12: Revenues of the BRT-LRT System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032) 124




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Acronyms and Abbreviations

Approx. approximately

bn billion

BRT Bus Rapid Transit

CAPEX Capital Expenditures

CBD Central Business District

CBS Central Bus Station

cm centimetre

CoW City of Windhoek

CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research

dBA A-weighted decibels - A-weighting is defined in the International standard IEC

61672:2003 and various national standards relating to the measurement of sound

pressure level. A-weighting is applied to instrument-measured sound levels in

effort to account for the relative loudness perceived by the human ear, as the ear

is less sensitive to low audio frequencies.

DC Direct Current

E East

EUR Euro

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für International Zusammenarbeit GmbH

GmbH Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung (ltd.)

ha hectare

HIV/AIDS Human Immuno-deficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome

HOV high occupancy vehicle

ICD Inscribed circle diameter

IFIs International Financing Institutions (e.g. World Bank, KFW)

KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau

km kilometre

km/h Kilometre per hour

LRT Light Rail Transit

LRV Light Rail Vehicle

m meter

M Million

m2 Square meter

max maximum

min minute




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min minimum

mm millimetre

MU Multi-utility

MWT Ministry of Works and Transport

N North

NAD Namibian Dollar

NGL Natural Ground Level

NIES Namibia Informal Economy Survey

NMT Non-Motorized Transport

NOx Nitrogen oxides

NPV Net Present Value

OPEX Operational Expenditures

P Persons

PFS Pre-Feasibility Study

pphpd Passengers per hour per direction

PT Public Transport

PuT Public Transport

ROG Reactive organic gases

S South

SU single unit

SU+T single unit plus trailer

SUTMP Sustainable Urban Transport Master Plan for Windhoek

t tons

T 1 High Capacity Line following the route: CBS – Independence – Soweto Market –

Havana – Monte Christo (Northern Development Area, approx. 16 km) –

extendable in north-western direction

T 11 High Capacity Line following the route: CBS – Independence - Northern Industrial

Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market

T 2 High Capacity Line following the route: CBS – Hosea-Kutako Drive – Northern

Industrial Area – Monte Christo Road – Goreangab

T 3 High Capacity Line following the route: CBS – Moses Garoeb – Otjomuise –

extendable in western direction

T 4 High Capacity Line following the route: CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto

Market

TOD Transit oriented development

TOR Terms of Reference

TPEEG Targeted Intervention Programme for Employment and Economic Growth




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UNAM Please clarify

V Volt

W West

WB World Bank

WP Work Package




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1 Executive Summary

Windhoek is seeking a prioritized public transport investment programme that is economically viable,

environmentally friendly and that gives special attention to the urban poor as well as to other vulnerable

groups. The main objective is to investigate different public transport options in detail that improve long-

term mobility and access for its citizens.

The pre-feasibility study (PFS) is formulating integrated and sustainable projects that address

institutional, technical, financial, economic, social and environmental concerns. The implementation of

these projects will focus on measures that are:

- Inclusive and pro-poor (affordable, accessible and safe for all citizen of different income groups and

with different needs),

- Economically viable (acceptable economic rate of return) and financially sustainable (fare box

revenue, public service obligation payments must be sufficient for funding operational costs) and

- Environmentally sustainable

- Suitable for potential financing by Namibian central government and the local authorities under

applicable financing schemes.

It is recommended that within the infrastructure investment cycle, a comprehensive feasibility study,

agreements on financing arrangement, the project implementation and its operation and maintenance

will follow the pre-feasibility study. Thus, this pre-feasibility puts the Namibian Government and the City

of Windhoek in the position to prepare for the next phase of the project development, i.e. a full feasibility

study or direct financing.

The PFS analyses priority urban transport investments for Windhoek’s citizens based on the Sustainable

Urban Transport Master Plan (SUTMP), and recommendations of the current technical assistance project

on public transport network development. The public transport network (Figure 1-1), discussed and

agreed with the stakeholders is in focus of this pre-feasibility study. Five high-demand lines of the

network undergo the pre-feasibility evaluation for their gradual transfer to bus rapid transit 1 (BRT1),

light rail transit (LRT) or BRT21 technologies. These systems differ from in terms of infrastructure

complexity needed for erecting of those systems and level of service each system is delivering. Primary

considerations in choosing between light rail and heavy bus rapid transit systems are the differences in

urban impact, construction costs, operating costs, capacity, and adaptability and policy considerations.

The following lines undergo pre-feasibility consideration:

T 1 Central Bus Station (CBS) – Independence – Soweto Market – Havana – Monte Christo

(Northern Development Area, approximately 16 km) – extendable in north-western direction

T 2 CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Northern Industrial Area – Monte Christo Road –

Goreangab

T 3 CBS – Moses Garoeb – Otjomuise – extendable in western direction

T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market

T 11 CBS – Independence - Northern Industrial Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market

For these five lines of the network the development analysis under three demand growth scenarios until

2030 were conducted:

- SUTMP demand growth scenario (standard base case);

- Optimistic demand growth (faster demand growth +10%);

1 Various types of transport systems range in terms of their degree of infrastructure complexity and carrying

capacity to accommodate the public transport demand (see Figure 5-3 and Figure 5-4 for system characteristics).




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- Pessimistic demand growth (slower demand growth -10%);

All growth scenarios suggest, that all five lines of the network have a potential to be converted into BRT1

technology overtime. Under the standard and fast growth development scenarios, the line T1 has a

potential to be upgraded from BRT1 to LRT or BRT2 in 2032. All proposed systems upgrades suit the

demand development of the metropolitan Windhoek. These high capacity systems are integral part of

the overall public transport network of the City of Windhoek.

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Figure 1-1: Public Transport Network of Windhoek, 2032

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Therefore, the subject of this pre-feasibility study is two options of public transport system development

suitable for Windhoek with the time horizon of 2032, with BRT 2 or with LRT system. The development

scenarios for line 1 of the network are considered for two options:

- Option 1: Bus Service, BRT Lines and LRT Line: LRT for the Line T1 as of 2032

- Option 2: Bus Service, BRT Lines and BRT2 Line: BRT 2 for the Line T1 as of 2032

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Figure 1-2: Lines for Pre-Feasibility Investigation

Legend: the lines marked in red will undergo pre-feasibility investigations. For Line T1- both BRT2 and LRT systems are considered in 2032.

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The mass rapid transit project, regardless of which system will be put in place, will integrate five

elements to ensure operational efficiency:

Table 1-1: Elements of the High-Capacity Public Transport System in Windhoek

Infrastructure: Option 1 – BRT and LRT: The system is open. It consists of 4 BRT lines,

1 LRT line, terminal stations, and dedicated bus lanes in 2032. The

physical dimensions and geometries of the proposed BRT lines allow

accommodating the LRT operation from 2032, following the growth of

traffic demand in the City of Windhoek and surroundings.

Option 2 BRT-BRT2: The system will need to become a closed in 2032,

with introduction of BRT 2 (segregated lane, flyovers, and tunnels).

From 2032, it consists of 4 BRT lines and 1 BRT2 line, terminal stations,

and dedicated bus lanes.

The physical dimensions and geometries of the proposed lines allow

accommodating such an operation for all technologies.

Fare System: For both options: Open system with validators in the vehicles, and

random controllers. Three tariff zones within Windhoek are defined.

Ticket selling infrastructure is decentralised; ticket selling booths are

available at major stations. Passengers can change from a mass rapid

transit mode to regular bus, as well as one route to another, using the

same tickets valid within respective zones and times. Monthly tickets

and loyalty programs in fares are in place.

Technology: BRT1 Technology: The articulated low floor high occupancy vehicles of

24-m operate on dedicated lanes almost round the clock. BRT buses

use the separated lanes of existing streets; partly longitudinally

segregated from the general traffic, use same level crossings. At

crossings, the BRT share the road with other vehicles, but priority

against other traffic due to ITS installations.

LRT Technology: Similar to bus systems LRT can be defined of different

levels of infrastructure requirements according to different levels of

capacity. On the lowest level LRT is also known as tram or streetcar

and is road-sharing similar to a standard bus. Vehicles can be of a

length from about 25 to 40 meters.

Typical LRT has a high share of separated right-of-way combined with

level crossings and prioritization measures similar to the Light BRT

system. Trains can reach a length of 60 to 75 meters, mostly two units

a coupled to one train.

BRT2 Technology: Completely segregated lanes from general traffic

and pedestrians.

Management For both options:

The operations fleet/rolling centre manages dispatch, notifies

passengers of schedule changes and other updates, produces reports,




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and maintains records. All vehicles are equipped with GPS (global

positioning system) devices linked to the operations centre.

Service: For both options:

This includes the use of high-capacity vehicles, exclusive running

ways/tracks along most of the routes, frequent service, and satisfying

high peak demand.

The BRT system is flexible and can be extended overtime. It is possible

to operate the BRT system on the part of the routes, as soon as they

are constructed, and extend the service as the next segment of the line

is ready.

The LRT system may be put in operation once the overall route is in

place due to signalling configuration. During the construction of the

LRT system, some segments of the BRT lines may need to be rerouted.

The BRT 2 system would require rerouting of the traffic from the

alignment of the route T2, during the construction phase. The

segregation of the BRT2 lane would cause a need for construction of

the flyovers, tunnels for traffic and pedestrian crossings.

Enabling Institutional

Environment:

Currently, there is a limited basis for commercialisation in the public

transport in high capacity transport operation. Both on national and

municipal levels there is a need to undergo a shift from system

operator to system regulator and provider of the public transport

infrastructure. In the future, the role of the state would be not only to

regulate the tariff, but to set the fare recovery target for a commercial

operator and to subsidise the rest of the system costs.

The process of such transformation is a lengthily one. The start of the

system will be under complete public patronage covering both aspects

of infrastructure provision to operation planning and implementation.

For the future, a more commercialised operation is recommended. In

the long run, the role of public sector would be to provide

infrastructural facilities and enabling regulatory environment.

Socio-Economic Effects High-quality public transport systems positively affect the quality of

life, productivity, health, and safety of people living in cities. With

introduction of the high-capacity transit systems an urban lifestyle of

Windhoek will change and positive impact is expected on the level of:

- Social equality and inclusion

- Health consideration, including combating Human Immuno-

deficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome

(AIDS)

- Reduction of the carbon footprint, as well as

- Security and safety within Metropolitan Windhoek

The pre-feasibility study outlines the following development stages of the public network development,

corresponding to the growth of the public transport demand (Figure 1-3):

- Phase 1: present -2017




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- Phase 2: 2018-2022

- Phase 3: 2022-2027

- Phase 4: 2027-2032

Figure 1-3: Introduction of the BRT and BRT2/LRT Elements in the Network

In the time frame from now to 2032 the city will undergo a dynamic development. The same applies to

the transport system. All lines will start as standard bus, operated by standard bus (12 m length) or

articulated bus (18 m length) but with different frequencies.

Line 1, mainly following the Independence Avenue from City Centre (CBS) via Katutura to Wanaheda, is

the most central line and will be the first one to be updated to a higher level of operation. The other

lines will follow up to this updating process with a distance on time.

The first upgrade of the system will be from bus to BRT 1. Increasing demand on a standard bus line will

require utilisation of longer vehicles and introduction of more frequent service. To avoid negative impact

to the bus service operation due to traffic congestions, gradually at intersections priorisation

installations will be put in place. This process should start at a demand of 1,000 Passengers per hour per

direction (pphpd). The first BRT1 line upgrade will be completed to line 1 in 2022 for all demand pattern

scenarios.

The introduction of separated lanes for buses can be done step by step. Each section will be launched

separately, optimising traffic situation. This way the upgrade from standard bus to a BRT type 1 can be

done in a continuous process. There is no need to update the line on full length before starting BRT1

service. As soon as the demand is in a range of 2,500 to 3,000 pphpd the updating should be completed.

With regular demand of Windhoek, the lines T4 and T 11 will be converted to BRT 1 system by 2027. The

lines T3 and T 11 will follow by 2032.

With lower demand (-10%), the conversion to BRT 1 of all lines will take place in 2032.




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If the demand will be higher than forecasted by the model (+10%), already in 2027 the lines T4, T11 and

T3 need to be upgraded to BRT1.

The most crucial factor for this is a need to keep the space along all bus routes for later installation of

additional lanes and the related stops over time.

Upgrade to LRT and BRT 2 system will be completed by 2032, following the demand figures. The Line 1

will reach demand figures of more than 5,000 pphpd around the year 2032. In combination with lines in

parallel the maximum demand is calculated by about 7,000 passengers on Independence Avenue in the

area of the fire brigade circle. At that time the upper limit of BRT1 transportation is reached and the next

step is needed to be installed.

The pre-feasibility study urges to consider the following for upgrade from BRT1 (light) to BRT2 (heavy).

The frequency needed to satisfy such number of passengers will be more than one bus every two

minutes with increasing tendency. Therefore bus and other traffic must become segregated. Segregation

means 100% right-of-way to the bus with no other traffic on its lanes. Pedestrian as well as car traffic

need bridges or underpasses to cross the bus lanes. Along the routes, the separation will be done by

walls or fences that nobody can surmount. This will divide the street and hinder the people significantly

to get on the other side. Still high walls and fences may undermine aesthetics and urbanistic qualities of

Windhoek. Alternatives such as low lying line separators that only allow busses to go over it, but not

passenger cars are recommended for consideration. For the sake of road safety, also whenever possible

a wider barrier as a refuge for pedestrian crossing should be made available.

Bridges or underpasses for car traffic will result in major implication in traffic flow and car traffic. The

area needed for ramps and turning lanes significantly will increase. This upgrade is associated with high

investment costs, and high traffic congestions because of the construction measure. The pre-feasibility

study does not recommend perceiving this option for Windhoek.

The alternative to an upgrade from BRT1 to BRT2 is the upgrade to LRT. Basically a bus lane used as BRT

1 easily can be changed into a right-of-way for LRT. The width of a bus (2.55 m) is similar to a LRT vehicle

(2.65 m). A bus additional needs space for swaying on the lane, a LRT vehicle is fixed by the rails and

cannot sway that much. Some space will be needed to place the poles for the overhead catenary system

and the platforms will be longer (up to 75 meters depending on the vehicle type and the door

arrangement).Those needs of space along the lanes can be taken into account when planning the bus

way. The real challenge is to place the rails. Therefore the bus lane must be closed for a certain time and

no BRT service can be offered in that section. This needs a good planning of construction phases to

reduce the impact to the passengers. LRT operation can be launched as soon as all tracks are installed

and the power supply installations also are working and the related staff got trained.

The current project has issued recommendations to start with the standard bus system. For this system,

the total level of subsidy was estimated to cover both investment and operational costs. The total

amount of public sector obligation for bus network was determined till year 2022 at the level of

Namibian Dollar (NAD) 1.033 Million (M) (taking into account also investment for bus depot and CBS).

Following the network development pattern, this pre-feasibility study takes into account the investment

costs undertaken for BRT1 and LRT/BRT2 systems from the start of network operation till 2032. The pre-

feasibility study estimates the costs of the BRT/BRT/LRT2 system upgrade. The amount of additional

subsidy for this upgrade is also determined. In the same manner, the revenues within BRT/BRT2/LRT

systems are calculated. And the overall financial performance of the concerned lines is evaluated too.

The study also presents required institutional arrangements, and assesses possible risks of the system.

The study recommends starting a network roll-out as a standard bus system. From the beginning the

operation has to be monitored and priorisation measures installed on line 1, but also on lines 2, 3, 4, and

11. Line 1 (north of CBS) should be updated to BRT1 service until 2022. The other lines also continuously

should be updated and step by step converted into BRT1 service. In 2027 line 4 should be fully updated,




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but line 2 has just little lower demand figures and should also become BRT1 service close to this date.

2032 line 1 will undergo the next update to LRT service. Lines 2, 3, 4 and 11 shall be fully updated to BRT

1 service.

The pre-feasibility study recommends upgrading the line T1 to LRT technology to avoid unnecessary cost

and socio-economic burdens (traffic congestions, heavy constructions phases). The LRT system with level

crossings would cope with required mobility levels and parameters for Metropolitan Windhoek.

The recommended BRT-LRT option is feasible in all demand development scenarios, and will satisfy the

mobility requirements for Windhoek.

In financial terms the development of this option would require the overall public sector financing in the

amount of NAD 3.148 Million from 2017 to 2032. In addition under the first implementation phase the

following public sector obligations are required:

- for bus network establishment (NAD 783 M),

- and costs of the terminal CBS (NAD 50 M)

- and new bus depots (NAD 200M).

The fare-box recovery system for BRT/LRT routes is set considering the affordability levels applicable for

inclusion of the population of Windhoek at 10% over the whole period of the pre-feasibility

investigations.

It is recommended to conduct the full-fledged feasibility and detailed design study for the option 1.




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2 Introduction

Background

Windhoek’s population is rapidly growing at 3.1 % per annum, above the national growth rate. As a

result, more housing, more jobs, new infrastructure and services will be required to meet such demand

in the future. One of the key aspects that should accompany such a development is mobility of citizens

and connectivity of infrastructure.

Transport affects Windhoek’s resident’s daily lives in different ways, for instance in getting to and from

work or being able to access essential services such as health, education, recreation in all areas of the

City and for all parts of the population. Transport also affects private sector opportunities and the

efficiency of the transport system can back-up or constrain business.

While the City of Windhoek (CoW) operates on a smaller scale compared to most other cities in the

world, the present trends observed are comparable: reduced accessibility and thus social isolation and

exclusion caused by inadequate mobility of the urban poor, ever increasing traffic congestion,

unacceptable high rate of traffic accidents, high consumer costs, energy dependence and pollution. 87%

low income earners, who cannot afford own cars; 52% of those cannot afford it at all; on average, low-

income earners spend 24% on mobility. The non-motorised traffic consists above all by walking (more

than 97%, while cycling is almost negligible.

A key task of the Government of Namibia and the City of Windhoek is to cater for the growing population

and future demand of the growing economy and to plan for the fast increasing mobility needs.

Recognising this need, the Cabinet in November 2014 has endorsed the Sustainable Urban Transport

Master Plan for Metropolitan Windhoek that promoted transit Oriented Development, Public Transport

Reform and Non-Motorised Transport, prepared with the support of Deutsche Gesellschaft für

Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). The main objective of the Sustainable Urban Transport Master

plan (SUTMP) is to build an integrated network within the modes and between the modes that enables

unimpaired and safe mobility, affordable for the poor, throughout the City.

In July 2014, the current GIZ-funded technical assistance Project on Pre-feasibility Study on urban

transport as per the SUTMP was launched to advance the achievements of the master plan and support

the City of Windhoek in establishment of the modern public transport service. The project provided

technical assistance to address the growing problem of managing urban transport efficiently under two

work packages (WP):

- WP 1: Bus Route Development and Operations Management for the City of Windhoek Division Public

Transport.

- WP 2: Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) in Urban Transport in Windhoek till 2032.

The project proposed the development of the public transport system of Windhoek targeting the year

2032, with the full-pledged high-capacity transit system in Windhoek. The findings are based on current

and future mobility needs of Windhoek, traffic modelling, screening, best practices applicable for

Namibian conditions, and vision of the SUTMP.

The current pre-feasibility study is a deliverable of the Work Package 2 of the current technical assistance

project. The study is prepared against the background of the SUTMP of the City of Windhoek, and the

results of the network development and traffic modelling implemented by the current technical

assistance project from July 2014 to February 2015.

The network development concept was approved by the City of Windhoek, Ministry of Works and

Transport (MWT) and GIZ, and endorsed during an extended stakeholder meeting in October 2014. The

lines of the network with high-demand were selected as subject of the pre-feasibility study for

installation of mass transit systems of BRT (light and heavy), and LRT.




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The pre-feasibility study is based on the results of the assessment of various implementation options,

and provides a road map for a decision on the political level about short-term and strategic steps to

support the development of the urban transport and mobility of the citizens of City of Windhoek. The

proposed option would serve as a pilot initiative to foster the public transport development in Namibia.

Objectives

The main objective of this pre-feasibility study is to prepare grounds for launching a full-fledged

feasibility study for the BRT and LRT routes in Windhoek and prepare a decision for direct financing of

the public transport development by the Namibian Government.

The study provides a vision of gradual improvement of the public transport network in Windhoek, and

proposes the options that secure:

- Reliable network that best satisfies the mobility needs of the citizens

- Affordable public transport service for Metropolitan Windhoek

- High coverage and frequency of the public transport service

- Sustainable development of the urban transport in Windhoek

The pre-feasibility study adheres to the principles of the SUTMP.

It investigates the system roll-out option under three demand growth development scenarios (standard,

lower -10%, higher +10%) to equip the government of Namibia with a reliable planning basis for the next

stages of public transport development.

The study also emphasises the need for enabling institutional environment to support the planned

development in public transport.

Report Structure

The study answers these questions in the following chapters and sections.

Table 2-1: Structure of the Pre-Feasibility Study

Chapter 1: Executive summary Provides an overview of main conclusions of the study regarding

transfer from standard bus network to BRT and LRT systems, and

a brief outline of study contents and major provisions, and steps

to take

Chapter 2: Introduction Elaborates on background, objectives and structure of the pre-

feasibility study

Chapter 3: Key Development

Issues

Outlines the main public transport related development issues,

covering socio-economic aspects, land-use consideration,

describing locations of the network lines to be upgraded to BRT /

LRT modes till 2032

Chapter 4: International

Benchmark of System

Characteristics and Options

Discussing the best practices of high-capacity transit systems and

their major features and system design parameters. The chapter

provides outlook for benchmarking characteristics of the

following public transport technologies:

- Standard Bus Technology

- BRT Technologies

- LRT Technologies




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Chapter 5:

Definition of Technology and

System Parameters

Based on the results of the screening, the suitable technology for

metropolitan Windhoek is recommended taking into account:

- BRT / LRT Capacities and Parameters

- Applicability for Windhoek Conditions

Then, this chapter discussed the system introduction per phase,

based on the demand development pattern, and taking into

account various demand development scenarios till 2032.

The chapter briefly outlines the major risks related to introduction

of the system, which are mainly the need for public acceptance

and the need to securing future land-use for BRT/LRT

technologies at the early stages of the project.

Chapter 6: Operational Concept Providing insights on system upgrade needs as per project

development phase, defined by demand and system capacity

borders as follows:

- Phase 1: Present – 2017 (bus only)

- Phase 2: 2017– 2022 (bus + 1st BRT1)

- Phase 3: 2022-2027 (bus + further lines as BRT1)

- Phase 4: 2028-2032 (bus + further lines as BRT1 + 1st LRT / BRT

line in 2032)

The steps for feasible network development are presented from

the stage of base bus network as 2017, till full network in 2032.

The operation characteristics for various recommended options

are presented.

The study recommends considering 2 options for staged high-

capacity transit system development. The LRT/BRT 2 technologies

are justified from the year 2032 on. The study recommends

implementing an LRT based development from 2032 on.

These operational and system data is used as a basis for financial

calculations under this pre-feasibility study.

Chapter 7: Analysis and

Conceptual Design of BRT and

LRT Routes / Design and Route

Refinement

For the proposed technologies the design and route refinement

consideration are outlined in term of:

- Positioning of the Lines for BRT and LRT

- BRT geometric layout considerations

- BRT pavement considerations

- LRT design considerations

This chapter is supported by pre-feasibility level design drawings.

The route design infrastructure components are incorporated

into the pre-feasibility calculations of the system.

Chapter 8: Financial Analysis and

Socio-Economic Impact

This chapter provide a judgement of the BRT – LRT system pre-

feasibility from the financial and economic points of view. The

summary of costs and incomes for the BRT-LRT system are

provided together with the required level of subsidy per phase,

and in total. The present value of the subsidy levels are provided

for 10% discount rates. The financial evaluation is prepared for

two options that undergo pre-feasibility investigation, namely




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network with extension to BRT2 in 2032, and a network with

extension to LRT in 2032.

The costs and revenues are calculated explicitly for the lines to be

upgraded into BRT1/LRT/BRT2 system for the sake of consistency

between needed investments in the related infrastructure, and

income generated within BRT1/LRT/BRT2 systems.

For each option, three demand development scenarios are

assessed that require various pace of infrastructure upgrade, and

various levels of fare revenues.

The financial calculations confirm the recommendation and speak

for implementation of the LRT based solutions from 2032 on.

The cross-cutting issues, as environmental and socio-economic

aspects are outlined too.

The Cost-Benefit Analysis is not a part of this pre-feasibility study

and should be undertaken on full scope during the detailed

feasibility investigations.

Chapter 9: Implementation

Arrangements and Risks

Development of public transport needs political will and

commitment at the governmental level to allocate required funds,

and secure enabling institutional environment for

implementation of the system. This includes allocation of the

budgetary funds and policy level actions / reforms of public

transport organisation, targeting separation of regulatory

function and operation in the public transport. This chapter

elaborates on implementation arrangements needed for upgrade

and development of the public transport system. The risks on

operation, design, financial / socio-economic, environmental, and

institutional level are identified, and required mitigation strategy

is proposed.

Chapter 10: Conclusions and

Recommendations

This chapter summarises major conclusions and

recommendations of the pre-feasibility study.




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3 Key Development Issues

3.1.1 Brief description of socio-economic aspects

National Socio-Economic Performance

According to population census of 2011, Namibia’s population counted to 2.1 million inhabitants2. In

2013, according to the World Bank, the population was 2.3 million. The highest population densities are

observed in the Northern Regions and in the capital Windhoek. Urban population comprised 42%

(885,500 persons), representing a growth of 10% since 2001. Rural population accounts to 58%

(1,219,400 persons). The overall population growth rate is 0.95%.

The population of Namibia is very young with a median age of 21.7 years in 2011. As throughout

southern Africa, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is severe. In 2009 the adult incidence rate was 13.1%.

The United Nations Human Development Index for Namibia is 0.625 (2011), ranking it 120th out of 187

countries.

Namibia is classified as a middle income country. Namibian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2013 (WB3)

accounted to EUR 9.7 Billion (bn). The economic growth was 4.4 % and the inflation rate 5.6 %.

The Namibia 2011 Population and Housing Census revealed unemployment in Namibia at 37 percent as

opposed to the 51 percent unemployment rate of the 2008 Namibia Labour Force Survey. The 2013

Namibia Labour Force Survey4 showed that the unemployment rate has increased by 2.2 percent.

There is a clear link between unemployment and educational attainment. Amongst those with no

education, primary education and junior secondary education the unemployment rate stood at over

50%, reaching 62 – 67% amongst females. Unemployment rates were significantly lower (around 5%)

amongst those with tertiary education.

A regional comparison reveals that unemployment was highest in Omusati, Ohangwena and Kavango

(70% or more according to the broad definition) while the lowest rates were recorded in Erongo,

Khomas, Karas and Hardap (less than 40%).

In 2011, the Namibian government announced a Targeted Intervention Programme for Employment and

Economic Growth (TPEEG). Under this programme priority projects for investment and job creation are

envisaged in agriculture, transport (mainly road, railway and port projects), housing and sanitation,

tourism and public works jobs).

Socio-Economic Indicators in the Project Area - Metropolitan Windhoek

Windhoek, Khomas region, Okahandja and Rehoboth regions are centrally located hosting the capital

city and provide for this reason superior transportation infrastructure (not service). It has well-developed

economic, financial, and trade sectors. Khomas Region has 15% of the population. The towns of

Rehoboth in Hardap Region and Okahandja in Otjozondjupa region constitute the part of the

“metropolitan” area around Windhoek, and belong to the project area.

The level of social welfare due to inclusion of Windhoek is one of the highest in the country. The data

for average annual income per person in Windhoek and surroundings was reported in 2011 as EUR

27605, the informal income survey to claim the annual income per capita to be EUR 80006 in 2014. At

2 Namibia 2011: Population and Housing Census, National Planning Commission 2012 3 World Bank (WB) (2014): http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/namibia 4 Namibia 2013: http://www.nsa.org.na/files/NLFS%202014_Final_with%20bleed%20and%20crop%20marks.pdf 5 SUTMP 6 Numbeo.com (2014)




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the same time, in the project area the distribution of income is more unequal than in the rest of the

country.

The population number in the project area, according to the census of 2011 was 384,000 persons. Labour

Force Survey of 2013 counted 158104 households in the project area. The annual population growth

rate here is estimated at 1.7% (2011) and in Windhoek at 4-5%. The forecast suggests the increase of

the population in 2017 to 462,500 inhabitants, and by 2032 to 808,000 persons, which will constitute an

increase of about 47%. This is attributed mainly to economic migration growth, since the region is one

of the most significant economic regions in the country.

It is likely that the Windhoek population will continue to grow at higher rate. One of the implications of

this high population increase is that the volume of traffic to transport people to and from their working

places will increase considerably.

Average household size in Namibia is 4.2 persons. The indicators in the project area are comparable with

the ones nationwide.

Table 3-1: Socio-Economic Parameters in the Project Area

Parameter Unit Year Value Source

Population growth in

Windhoek, Khomas,

Okahandja, Rehoboth

(trend)

Persons 2011 384,400 Census 2011, CoW

projections, trends 2017 462,500

2022 555500

2032 808000

Household Size

Khomas

Persons /

household

2011 3.7 Population Census Namibia

Informal Economy Survey

(NIES) 2009-2010,

2013 Namibia Labour Force

Survey

basic assumption:

in-migration mainly due to

lower income households

with larger household

members

2020 4.1

Household Size Hardap

Region (Rehoboth)

Persons /

household

2011 3.9

2013 4.0

2020 4.2

Household size Otjozondjupa

region (Okahandja)

Persons /

household

2011 4.1

2013 3.7

2020 4.1

Economic growth rate

Windhoek

GDP / Capita

growth rate

Recent yrs. 3-4% CoW

2011-2017 3.5% SUTMP

2017-2022 4%

2022-2032 4.5%

Income Khomas Region

Income Windhoek

Income according to quintiles’

EUR/capita p.a. 2009 EUR 2590 NIES 2009-2010

2011 EUR 2780 SUTMP

2017 EUR 3410

2022 EUR 4150

2032 EUR 6500

Discount Rate 2012-2032 3%-10% Pre-feasibility investigations

Source: SUTMP, Consultant interviews and research




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The main source of household income in the project areas are salaries and wages due to urban structure

and concentration of public, services and industrial sector in the project region. The income band of the

metropolitan area, however, shows that majority of regions population living on wages have and

monthly income of up to EUR 200 (47%), while the 19% have an monthly income of EUR 600 and more

(see graphs below.)

Windhoek has a broad distribution of residence areas. Expensive residential areas are located in all parts

of the city. Such settlement structure, however, does not represent the socio-economic characteristics

of the different parts of the city. Low income households with large household sizes in high population

density areas are located mainly towards the North and North-West. The areas with the highest

population are Okuryangava, Wanaheda, Goreangab and Havana with figures ranging from 4.401 to

28.000 inhabitants. Thus, all the low-income households are generally decentralized from the Central

Business District (CBD) and are located to the outskirts of the downtown.

It is forecasted for the years 2015 to 2032 that the City of Windhoek will grow from today about 350.000

inhabitants to about 1 Mio in about 15 years. The demand will increase respectively. Under this

perspective also the public transport supply has to be adapted, that means transport means of a higher

performance than a normal bus have to be introduced on lines of high demand.

Figure 3-2: Main sources of household income in the project areas in 2013

Figure 3-1: Income band of waged households in the region 2013




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3.1.2 Land Use Consideration

The Master Plan tested three scenarios for land-use

development in Windhoek. The sustainable

development approach is based on the scenario

named “Polycentric Development” regarded as the

best option for the sustainable development. This

scenario implies the following characteristics:

- Moderate densification of the City of

Windhoek;

- Moderate mixed land-use, and generally the

implementation of decentralize concentration;

- The major urban development area will lie

along transit corridor being Transit oriented

development (TOD);

- Brakwater and Elisenheim will be tightly

connected to the TOD corridor by high-quality public

transport (PT);

- Additional development is possible in

Finkenstein, Groot Aub, Omeya, International Airport,

Aris and Kappsfarm;

- For the chosen scenario “polycentric development”, detailed population and employment forecasts

were developed for each traffic zone.

This scenario will result in the following impact on modal split:

Transit accessibility: 60% of population <15 minutes to next PT

Modal Split PT: 20-40%

Modal Split Non-Moto-

rized Transport (NMT):

10-30%

Possible new BRT or LRT lines

For the accommodation of both BRT and mixed traffic a roadway width of 38m is required. Allowing 1m

on either side for the inclusion of services or elevation measures (cutting or fills) implies a road reserve

of 40m is required when considering future corridor developments.

Figure 3-4: BRT-LRT lines - road reserve for future corridors

Figure 3-3: The polycentric development

38 m

Fill Cut

40 m




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Apart from the outlined BRT routes it can be envisaged that BRT lines will eventually be required along

the whole length of Otjomuise Road and Sam Nujoma Drive.

Where will land need to be reclaimed

The restriction posed from the build-up CBD area of Sam Nujoma Drive from the intersection with

Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue up to Robert Mugabe Avenue will either require an alternative route to

be reserved or the procurement of land to allow the traffic flow from East to West across the City of

Windhoek.

As this section of the route traversing through the CBD is built-up on either sides, the option to install a

BRT lane can only be accommodated by either buying out the business alongside this section (which

could be very expensive as the Municipality Head Office, Hilton Hotel are situated in this corridor).

Engineering Considerations for Upgrade

A change in the location of the alignment from the Bus to the BRT is required. Whilst the bus service is

encompassed in the mixed traffic lanes, the BRT lanes are reserved within the middle of the roadway.

The Bus service has its stations next to the outer lanes whereas the BRT has its stations in the centre of

the roadway.

Due to these changes, the upgrading of a bus route to BRT standards implies a reorganisation of the road

layout. As presented in the figure above, the BRT2 lanes need to be physically separated from those of

the mixed traffic in order to reserve them for BRT operations. The pavement structure for BRT operations

is also different than that of mixed traffic pavement requirements.

Due to this major earthworks will be required on any roadway that should integrate a BRT line. This

includes the replacement of the central pavement structure and the addition of road pavement to the

edges to create the designed road width. The repositioning of traffic lanes, requiring the adjustment of

road markings, as well as the adjustment of traffic signals is also required. These works are of such a

nature that the roadway will be virtually inaccessible to the public. Careful planning and deviation of

public traffic should be integrated in the design for the upgrading of a route to include the BRT lanes.

The addition of stations to the centre of the road will also have a significant impact on the usability of

the roads during construction.

Should it be considered that the BRT lines be fully segregated (BRT 2 option) from mixed traffic this

would include the additional burden and cost of construction of grade separations such as bridges or

tunnels to carry either the mixed or the BRT traffic.

The conversion of a BRT route to an LRT route will require again the replacement of the pavement

structure. The minimum width of a LRT option is 8.5m (with centre transmission pole) vs the width for

the BRT of 7.5m. Thus this measure requires an addition of 1m to the reserved roadway. This will require

the re-alignment of all traffic lanes (or if extension is considered to one side all traffic lanes on that side)

and could include the addition of pavement works to the sides of the existing roadway (to maintain the

mixed traffic flow). With regard to stations, BRT central stations range generally between 3.5m and 5.5m

and for LRT with uniform passenger flow the central platform width is also 5.5m. Thus the development

of central BRT stations should integrate the possible change to facilitate an LRT platform requiring minor

changes. The heights of both platforms level are at about 30 cm (Low Floor, BRT as well as LRT from

natural ground level (NGL) and is thus also compatible.

It is advisable to upgrade routes, whether upgrading to BRT or LRT, in sections. Thus allowing “normal”

traffic flow in the areas where construction is not taking place.

LRT operations require additional space for the turning of the Light Rail Vehicles (LRV) to be able to

operate in the opposite direction. Thus the location of the terminal stations needs to be planned in such




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a way, to allow future use of the stations for LRT. This could induce land reservation or even require the

purchasing of build-up areas. Some examples of layouts for the turning of LRVs are illustrated below.

Figure 3-5: Bay platform for short-turning trains

Figure 3-6: Intermediate terminal with split platforms for longer turning trains

Depots

BRT busses require a maintenance and storage facility. This needs to be considered during the

construction of the future bus depots. The area should be large enough to include all required

operational aspect as well as parking for all BRT busses. A sample layout of the MyCiti, Cape Town South

Africa, is presented below.

Figure 3-7: Bus Depot Layout

The size of the depot is highly dependent on the number of busses to be accommodated. Higher capacity

sites allowing for future system upgrade are to be considered at the planning phases.

For LRT, enough land needs to be acquired to allow the arrangement and storage of LRVs.




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Figure 3-8: Typical storage yard for track and overhead material

For electrified operations land for substations will also be required. The tailoring of the electrical

distribution system to closely follow the actual needs of the system rather than laying down uniform

standards can lead to significant economies in capital and maintenance cost as well as reducing visual

clutter above the right of way. The design of overhead components, particularly poles and brackets

and the placing of screening elements such as trees can do much to enhance the appearance of the

track area.

3.1.3 Location of the Lines

Based on the figures derived from the SUTMP model the first bus line to be upgraded in 2022 to a BRT

line is from the Central Bus Station (CBS) following Mandume Ndemufayo via, Bahnhof Street into

Independence Avenue. Continuing with Independence Avenue until it reaches Soweto Market. This line

is referred to as T1. (highlighted in red below)

34

Figure 3-9: Location of the T1 line – Line Alignment

35

An extension of the BRT system is required in 2027, with the introduction of an additional section to T1

extending it into Havana continuing on Independence Avenue turning into Otjomuise Road and then left

into Monte Christo.

Additionally a BRT line T4 from CBS following Mandume Ndemufayo, John Meinert, Davey Street,

Pasteur Street, Florence Nightingale, Abraham Mashego up to Soweto Market is illustrated below.

36

Figure 3-10: Location of the T4 line – Route Alignment

37

By 2032 further extensions to the BRT system will include T2, T3 and T11. T2 starts at the CBS, utilising

Mandume Ndemufayo, it turns into John Meinert and then into Hosea Kutako Drive and continuing north

turning into Monte Christo Road. T2 follows Monte Christo Road until it merges with the extended T1.

BRT line T3 also originates at the CBS, it follows Mandume Ndemufayo into John Meinert, diverging into

Bach Street then Hydra Street. It then follows Moses Garoeb Street into Bonn Street where it terminates.

The BRT line T4 follows the same route as T1 with a diversion from T1 at the intersection of

Independence Avenue and Hosea Kutako Drive. It follows Hosea Kutako drive up to the intersection with

Dortmund Street which becomes Plum Street and then Willibald Kapuenene Street. It follows Willibald

Kapuenene Street until the intersection with Independence Avenue whereupon it follows the route of

T1 up to the end at the intersection of Otjomuise Street and Eveline Street.

The introduction of an LRT line is determined to be necessitated in 2032 along the T1 line for the full

stretch from the CBS until Havana.

38

Figure 3-11: Location of the Lines T1, T11, and T2 – Route Alignments

39

4 International Benchmark of System Characteristics and Options

Systems for high-capacity transit – features and best practices

The following systems are considered as options for the city of Windhoek Public Transport service

- Standard Bus System:

- BRT Bus Rapid Transit

- LRT Light Rail Transit

4.1.1 Standard Bus Technology

A standard bus system is the absolute basic system of public transport in most cities of the world. Buses

regularly are using public streets, which means road sharing with private car traffic. To avoid delay by

traffic jam at selected intersections separated lanes can be established and/or priorisation measures

with impact to the phases of a robot can be installed.

Stops are located on the kerb site, marked by a pole and mostly a shelter and can be designed as bays

or caps.

Vehicles used on standard bus regularly are 12 meter long buses with two doors of two wings each on

the kerb side. On lines with higher demand articulated buses can be used with a total length of about 18

meter. The maximum load of a 12-m-bus is about 90 passengers (30 seated); an 18-m-bus has a load of

about 150 passengers (45 seated).

Figure 4-1: Typical articulated bus with three-door arrangement for standard bus service of London Transport

The frequency can range from one bus per hour (and less) to a maximum of about 3 minutes per line.

This leads to a maximum capacity of about 3000 pphpd.

Entrance is low floor which means about 30 to 35 cm from street level. Using the kneeling function

entrance height can be reduced to about 22 to 28 cm which allows easy access to the bus also for baby

strollers or wheelchair users.




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4.1.2 BRT Technologies

The description of BRT in the literature shows a broad range of systems and system elements and is quite

somehow inconsistent and depending on a many criteria. So in the following a detailed description of

basic elements and the consequences for typical system characteristics is done:

In the seventies the Brazilian City of Curitiba needed a transport mean of the capacity of a metro, but

they recognized, that they would never be able to do the related invest and later on the current cost of

an underground rail system. So they opted for a bus system with fully segregated lanes and high capacity

vehicles to reach supply figures close to a metro system, but at much lower cost. The success of the

system led to some copies in other cities, mostly in Latin America and Asia and became known as BRT

(Bus Rapid Transit).

Cities in Europe and North America also wanted to upgrade their bus systems, but – historically grown –

the streets in the city centres are much narrower and the passengers wanted a higher level of comfort

since the private car is on a much higher level of availability and competition. In these areas BRT could

not be copied without modification. So a light version of BRT was developed.

The inventors of BRT had in mind a system performing like a metro, but without rails and not

underground. This way first of all a typical BRT consist of lanes 100% separated from all kinds of other

traffic to ensure undisturbed operation on high speed level (> 60 km/h). Stops and vehicles are matching

in length and height to avoid gaps. There are systems with high floor platforms and entrances as well as

systems based on low entrance buses. Some systems also are using doors on the “wrong” side to serve

centre platforms instead of the lateral platform arrangement on classic bus routes. Passengers need a

valid ticket before entering the stop. Vehicles are designed for a maximum of capacity, so they have just

a few seats inside to allow a high number of standees, and allow fast boarding and disembark by one

door per 5 to 6 m length of vehicle. The original Brazilian systems mostly use 24-m double-articulated

buses; later build systems use also 12-m low-floor buses and other vehicle configurations. Mostly high-

capacity buses are chosen for satisfying the high demand as well as for cost-effective service. One

double-articulated bus and one driver carrying up to 300 passengers per bus is less costly than to do this

in three normal buses with three drivers.

The consequence is the construction of a broad corridor in the middle of the trunk roads. Minimum is

about 12 to 15 meter for two lanes and centre or lateral platform installations. Passengers will have to

use bridges or underpasses to get to the stop. Within this access must be placed the devices for ticketing.

Static and dynamic information devices are needed as well in the access ways as on the platform of the

stop.




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Figure 4-2: Bogota Transmilenio BRT system with double lanes and no level crossing, neither for pedestrians nor for car traffic

(Heavy BRT)

The segregation must be 100% that means: No pedestrian, cyclist or car driver with or without intent

will have a chance to enter the bus lane at any place. The flow of private car traffic must be organized in

a way that no level crossing is needed, either by fly-over or underpass of the bus lane or vice versa of

the road lanes. In case of using a narrow street by BRT it will be closed for any other car traffic to allow

bus operation exclusively.

One of the first Light-BRT-systems was Line 4 in Nantes/France. Here the inventors were not inspired by

a metro, but looking for a less expensive alternative of a LRT- or Tramway-system. The lanes are also

segregated from other traffic, but under a design speed of 50 to 60 km/h. There are at grade crossings

with pedestrian as well as with car traffic, regularly with pre-emption devices for the robots to give

priority to the bus and avoid stopping times. Stops show a special layout, but are accessible from street

level. All buses show low floor entrances. A valid ticket is needed before entering the bus.




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Figure 4-3: Nantes BRT system with separated bus lane, but level crossings (Light BRT)

Light-BRT systems can be done on different levels: The segregation from car traffic can vary from a fence

via a grass strip or concrete bars to a white strip as a road marking (depending on the acceptance by

private car drivers). Segregation sometimes only is used on parts of the route, but not on full length, if

the traffic situation does not require measures like this.

Figure 4-4: Figure 4-5: Double articulated bus (Length about 24 meter) as in use in the city of Aachen

Identical on all kind of BRT is the need of an operation management including control centre and fleet

tracking devices. Regularly BRT systems show a special branding / corporate design on vehicles, stops

and on any kind of marketing activities.

BRT are in use on about 160 cities all over the world, 1/3 of this in Latin America. Mostly one or two

corridors / main routes are in use. Just in Latin America the average is three corridors. Starting in mid-

1970s, the boom time was between 2001 and 2010 when more the 100 systems were launched.

4.1.3 LRT Technologies

Similar to bus systems LRT can be defined of different levels of infrastructure requirements according to

different levels of capacity. On the lowest level LRT is also known as tram or streetcar and is road-sharing

similar to a standard bus. Vehicles can be of a length from about 25 to 40 meters.




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Figure 4-6: Low-Floor tram vehicle on road-sharing section in the German city of Bochum.

Typical LRT has a high share of separated right-of-way combined with level crossings and priorisation

measures similar to the Light BRT system. Trains can reach a length of 60 to 75 meters, mostly two units

a coupled to one train.




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Figure 4-7: Coupled pair of Low-Floor-Vehicles on Light-Rail section with separated right-of-way, but level crossing with

robots in the city of Düsseldorf, Germany

On the third level LRT can also name as a light metro. This level requires 100% segregated right of way

to allow a higher speed and longer train sets.




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Figure 4-8: Typical example for light-metro is Dockland-Railway mostly operating on elevated structures in the former London

harbour area.

A special advantage is the availability of combination of typical LRT on separated right-of-way with short

sections of tram or light-metro if this is required by the local situation.

Signalling is mandatory only at maximum speed above 70 km/h or at underground (Tunnel) sections.

Therefore Light rail vehicles can brake on quite short distance, comparable to a truck or bus. Radii are

about 25 m as a minimum; the maximum gradient regularly shall be about 4 % (1:25) and in extreme 6%

(1:18). Vehicles mostly are electrical motorized units with a width of 2.65 m. Electric power supply is

done via overhead wire system and fed with 750 to 1500 Volt (V) Direct Current (DC). Maximum axle

weight is about 12 t. Platform height at state-of-the-art-systems is between 250 and 450 mm.




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5 Definition of Technology and System Parameters

BRT / LRT Systems Capacity and Parameters

For the purpose of this study, the capacity for the bus system and particularly the BRT system were used

from the reference BUS RAPID TRANSIT planning guide, published by the GIZ. In that guide, the figures

used for vehicle capacity are:

• Standard bus (12-m): 80 to 90 passenger per vehicle

• Articulated bus (18-m): 150 to 160 passenger per vehicle

• Double articulated bus (24-m): 250 to 260 passenger per vehicle

Figure 5-1: System Capacity

Source: BUS RAPID TRANSIT planning guide, published by the GIZ, consultant’s graphic

System Capacity (pphpd) Conclusion

Bus Up to 6.000 Combined with the frequency this will lead to system

capacities of 4.000 to 12.000 pphpd for LRT system and up to

45.000 pphpd for BRT system (with five buses operating

simultaneously at each scheduled on dual lane system

LRT 6.000 – 12.000

BRT 7 3.000 – 45.000

Metro 25.000 – 60.000

The BRT Planning Guide, GIZ 2007, contains the statements that an at-grade LRT-system can achieve a

maximum capacity of 12.000 pphpd. BRT systems are described with a performance of up to 45.000

pphpd. The above picture and table lacks a disaggregation and system modules to judge its suitability

for a city and comparison to the related infrastructure needed.

Also At-grade needs a further elaboration and specification to judge its suitability. For example, a LRT

have at-grade intersection with the capacity of this 12000 pphpd while BRT would need a grade

7 Remark: The figures as described above are BRT “Brazilian style”. Standees are calculated by 8 people per m². In Europe these

values are used for licensing the bus and calculation of the allowable vehicle payload. By comfort reasons the passenger load is

calculated by 4 Persons (P)/m²as the absolute maximum and 3 P/m² as standard maximum with a buffer on top. Under these

circumstances 8.000 pphpd is the upper limitation of BRT with about one double articulated bus every minute. Calculating with

a density > 4 P/m² may result in a passenger migration into other transport means like Taxi and in undesired effects like walking

to terminus stops with long boarding times like today since people will be afraid not get in the bus on a later stop.




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separation at intersection to reach this a high-performance. Inversely, a BRT with comparable

infrastructure to LRT will have a much lower capacity.

The following picture illustrates the Capacities in different cities

Figure 5-2: Capacity of Transportation Systems in Different Systems (example of New York North Line)

(source: http://www.effectivetransportation.org/docs/BRTvsRailCapacityHarkness.pdf)

For this reason, the following sections, discuss the different styles of BRT system and show capacities

related to infrastructure needed.

5.1.1 Capacity and Parameters of different types of BRT

From the above description of the BRT systems we derived three typical ways of operating BRT and do

a comparison of the most important criteria in the following table:

Figure 5-3: Capacities of different types of BRT, Comparison of Systems

Element Heavy BRT Light BRT 2 Light BRT 1 Standard Bus

Right-of-way 100% segregated 100% segregated Separated Road sharing

Number of bus-

lanes

4 (Express lanes) 2 2 Not mandatory

Maximum speed 60 to 70 and more 50 to 60 50 to 60 As generally

allowed

Average speed 25 to 30 20 to 25 20 to 25 15 to 20

Frequency < 3 min < 3 min < 5 min 5 to 60 min




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Element Heavy BRT Light BRT 2 Light BRT 1 Standard Bus

Performance/

Capacity 10.000 to 45.000

pphd 5.000 to 15.000

pphd 2.500 to 6.000

pphd

Max. 3.000

pphpd

Platform access Via concourse

level Via concourse

level From street

level

From street level

Platform /

Entrance height High floor (78 cm)

or low floor (25 to

30 cm)

low floor (25 to 30

cm) low floor (25 to

30 cm)

low floor (25 to

30 cm)

Platform layout Centre (door side!)

or lateral,

matching bus

entrance, up to 5

buses

simultaneously

Lateral, matching

bus entrance Lateral lateral

Payment Before entering

stop Before entering

stop Before

entering

vehicle

Before or while

entering vehicle

Mean of

segregation Wall, fence Wall, fence Green strip,

road marking

Not required

Crossing of other

traffic Fly over,

underpass

� No level

crossing

Fly over,

underpass

� No level

crossing

Level crossing

with

priorisation

Road sharing

Dynamic

Passenger

information

Must have at

Access, Platform,

Vehicle

Must have at

Access, Platform,

Vehicle

Must have at

Platform,

vehicle

Nice to have

The System described above as Heavy BRT cannot be recommended to Windhoek since there is not

sufficient space in most of the roads. Additional there are no figures of demand until 2032 that would

justify a system like this.

5.1.2 Capacity and Parameters of different types of LRT

Similar to the BRT we derived three typical ways of operating LRT and do also a comparison of the most

important criteria in the following table:

Figure 5-4: Capacities of different types of LRT, Comparison of Systems

Element Light Metro Light Rail Tram

Right-of-way Separated Segregated

Road sharing

Number of lanes 2 2 2

Maximum speed 60 to 80 50 to 60 50 to 60

Average speed 25 to 35 20 to 25 17 to 20

Frequency 2 to 3 min 3 to 5 min 5 to 10 min

Performance/ Capacity 8.000 to 18.000 pphpd 3.000 to 15.000 pphpd 1.500 to 3.500 pphpd




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Element Light Metro Light Rail Tram

Platform access From concourse level From street level From street level

Platform / Entrance

height low floor (25 to 30 cm)

/ high floor (80 to 100

cm)

low floor (25 to 30 cm)

low floor (25 to 30 cm)

Platform layout Lateral or central Lateral or central Lateral or central

Payment Before entering station Before entering vehicle Before entering vehicle

Mean of segregation Elevation, Tunnel Green strip, road

marking

Not required

Crossing of other traffic Elevation, Tunnel Level crossing with

priorisation

Road sharing

Dynamic Passenger

information Must have at Platform,

access, vehicle

Must have at Platform,

vehicle

Nice to have

Power Supply Overhead wire or third

rail

Overhead wire Overhead wire

Current 750 or 1500 V DC 750 V DC 600 or 750 V DC

A pure tram system is not recommended for Windhoek since the effort for infrastructure will not be related to the

demand. At this range of demand the supply can be done more cost-effective by bus.

On the other hand a light metro system also is not recommended, since the demand figures will not justify a system

of that high amount of cost for infrastructure and the related maintenance of infrastructure.

This way our recommendation for Windhoek will be a typical LRT system as soon as the demand figure will justify

the installation (may be on line 1 from the year 2032).

5.1.3 Capacities and System Parameters for Windhoek The following system parameters are considered for Windhoek public transport system.

Figure 5-5: Comparison of Public Transport systems feasible for Windhoek

Element Light BRT 2 LRT Light BRT 1 Standard Bus

Right-of-way 100% segregated Separated Separated Road sharing

Number of lanes 2 2 2 Not mandatory

Maximum speed 50 to 60 50 to 60 50 to 60 As generally allowed

Average speed 20 to 25 20 to 25 20 to 25 15 to 20

Frequency < 3 min < 5 min < 5 min 5 to 60 min

Performance/

Capacity 5.000 to 15.000 pphd 3.000 to 15.000 pphd 2.500 to 6.000

pphd

Max. 3.000 pphpd




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Figure 5-6: Synopsis of capacity range per transport system

Technology Response to Demand Development till 2032

It is the expectation of all forecasts that the City of Windhoek will grow during the next 15 to 20 years

from about 350,000 inhabitants today to about 700,000 and more and also do the related number of

jobs. These developments will not take place only within the area of the city so as today but by

extensions mainly in northern (Brakwater), north-western (Havana / Monte Christo) and western

(Otjomuise) direction. Today nobody knows how these areas will look like, but with all the following we

have to have in mind that in future there will be residential as well as industrial areas existing where

now can be found only sand and dust.

From the SUTMP demand figures are available for the current situation (2015) as well as for the long

term future (2032). To get an idea for figures in-between we interpolated from this also figures in a five

years interval (2022 and 2027).

The question is how to satisfy the calculated demand with best suitable and feasible system. So it has to

be done now the choice of the future transportation system so as bus, BRT or LRT. This choice will be

done according to the system capacity, matching the requirements from the demand figures. The two

main factors of system capacity are vehicle capacity and frequency.

The following tables show the demand of the maximum intersection as calculated / interpolated as well

as an approach with a 10 % lower and a 10% higher demand and do a comparison to the capacity figures

as described the chapter before.




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Figure 5-7: System Parameters in 2015

2015/2017 – No line/line section shows a demand that would justify a BRT or LRT system

Figure 5-8: System Parameters in 2022

2022 – Line 1 (Independence Ave.) now justifies measures for installation of a BRT 1 type system.

Figure 5-9: System Parameters 2027

2015 10% 10%

Line Demand BRT2 LRT BRT1 Bus lower BRT2 LRT BRT1 Bus higher BRT2 LRT BRT1 Bus

1 North 1180 X 1062 X 1298 X

1 South 80 X 72 X 88 X

2 540 X 486 X 594 X

3 West 260 X 234 X 286 X

3 South 180 X 162 X 198 X

4 North 570 X 513 X 627 X

4 East 50 X 45 X 55 X

5 North 240 X 216 X 264 X

5 South 30 X 27 X 33 X

6 190 X 171 X 209 X

8 120 X 108 X 132 X

11 North 600 X 540 X 660 X

11 South 40 X 36 X 44 X

12 North 330 X 297 X 363 X

12 East 230 X 207 X 253 X

Options Options Options

2022 10% 10%


1 North (T1) 2607 X 2346 X 2867 X

1 South 357 X 321 X 392 X

2 1143 X 1029 X 1258 X

3 West 1040 X 936 X 1144 X

3 South 460 X 414 X 506 X

4 North 1317 X 1185 X 1448 X

4 East 313 X 282 X 345 X

5 North 580 X 522 X 638 X

5 South 117 X 105 X 128 X

6 457 X 411 X 502 X

8 400 X 360 X 440 X

11 North 1390 X 1251 X 1529 X

11 South 247 X 222 X 271 X

12 North 743 X 669 X 818 X

12 East 517 X 465 X 568 X


2027 10% 10%


1 North (T1) 4033 X 3630 X 4437 X

1 South 633 X 570 X 697 X

2 (T2) 1747 X 1572 X 1921 X

3 West 1820 X 1638 X 2002 X

3 South 740 X 666 X 814 X

4 North (T4) 2063 X 1857 X 2270 X

4 East 577 X 519 X 634 X

5 North 920 X 828 X 1012 X

5 South 203 X 183 X 224 X

6 723 X 651 X 796 X

8 680 X 612 X 748 X

11 North (T11) 2180 X 1962 X 2398 X

11 South 453 X 408 X 499 X

12 North 1157 X 1041 X 1272 X

12 East 803 X 723 X 884 X





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2027 – Line 1 is still in the range of BRT 1 – system; Lines 4 and 11 now almost reached the BRT 1 range,

calculating 10% demand less both lines are just under the limit; Calculating 10 % more also line 3 is just

over the limit of BRT 1 type (Changes to the basic calculation are marked in yellow).

Figure 5-10: System Parameters 2032

2032 – Line 1 now reaches the limit to LRT or BRT 2; Next to the lines 3, 4 and 11 – they already reached

the BRT 1 limit in 2027 – now line 2 also has > 2000 pphpd and fulfils the BRT 1 criteria (Changes to the

basic calculation are marked in yellow).

Risks

Two major risk factors are lying in the process of developing such a network based on the SUTMP

assumptions, which is the best / only document available at this stage, those are:

- Possible / expected change in the supply and the expected change in mobility pattern

- Possible adjustment / maintaining the urban development pattern and work / residents distribution

continuing adding the load on the transport system.

Those two factors combined add a significant portion of risk for system pre-feasibility at this early stage

due to the above given reasons.

As urban development is a dynamic process the demand and the behaviour of the inhabitants and

visitors of Windhoek must be continuously monitored and the planning of public transport adapted to

the results.

2032 10% 10%


1 North (T1) 5460 X X X 4914 X 6006 X X

1 South 910 X 819 X 1001 X

2 (T2) 2350 X 2115 X 2585 X

3 West (T3) 2600 X 2340 X 2860 X

3 South 1020 X 918 X 1122 X

4 North (T4) 2810 X 2529 X 3091 X

4 East 840 X 756 X 924 X

5 North 1260 X 1134 X 1386 X

5 South 290 X 261 X 319 X

6 990 X 891 X 1089 X

8 960 X 864 X 1056 X

11 North (T11) 2970 X 2673 X 3267 X

11 South 660 X 594 X 726 X

12 North 1570 X 1413 X 1727 X

12 East 1090 X 981 X 1199 X





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6 Operational Concept

Issues of System upgrades at capacity borders

In the time frame from 2015 to 2032 the city will undergo a dynamic development and also will do the

transport system. All lines will start as standard bus, operated by standard bus (12 m length) or

articulated bus (18 m length) but different frequencies.

Line 1, mainly following the Independence Avenue from City Centre (CBS) via Katutura to Wanaheda, is

the most central line and will be the first one to be updated to a higher level of operation. The other

lines will follow up to this updating process with a distance on time.

In the following we will describe the measures to be taken into account in case of such update.

6.1.1 Upgrade from Bus to BRT1

Increasing demand on a standard bus line will lead to operation by bigger (longer) vehicles and to a more

frequent service. The more buses will serve a line the more impact will be generated between bus and

car traffic. To avoid negative impact to the bus step by step and intersection by intersection measures

will become installed to separate the bus from other traffic and to give priorisation to the bus at robots.

This process should start latest at a demand of 1,000 pphpd.

The installation of separated lanes for buses can be done step by step in the order of necessity and each

section can be launched separately. This way the upgrade from standard bus to a BRT type 1 can be done

in a continuous process. There is no need to update the line on full length before starting BRT service.

As soon as the demand is in a range of 2,500 to 3,000 pphpd the updating should be completed.

Just from today there is the need to keep the space along all bus routes for later installation of additional

lanes and the related stops.

Figure 6-1: Paris Trans-Val-Marne BRT system – End of bus lane / Changing from standard bus operation to BRT operation

6.1.2 Upgrade from BRT1 to BRT2

Line 1 will reach demand figures of more than 5,000 pphpd around the year 2032. In combination with

lines in parallel the maximum demand is calculated by about 7,000 passengers on Independence Avenue

in the area of the fire brigade circle. At that time the upper limit of BRT1 transportation is reached and

the next step is needed to be installed. This can be as well BRT2 or LRT. First we will describe the

measures to be taken into account in the case of BRT2.

The frequency needed to satisfy such number of passengers will be more than one bus every two

minutes with increasing tendency. In case of level crossings with other car traffic / robots in each phase

more than one bus per direction will pass the intersection. Buses will start queuing and forming throngs

on their separated lanes. Therefore bus and other traffic must become segregated.




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Segregation means 100% right-of-way to the bus with no other traffic on its lanes. Pedestrian as well as

car traffic need bridges or underpasses to cross the bus lanes. The separation will be done by walls or

fences that nobody can surmount.

This will divide the street and hinder the people significantly to get on the other side. Bridges or

underpasses for car traffic will result in major implication in traffic flow and car traffic. The area needed

for ramps and turning lanes significantly will increase.

For the above negative consequences we would not recommend upgrade of the BRT1 to BRT2 system.

6.1.3 Upgrade from BRT1 to LRT

The alternative to an upgrade from BRT1 to BRT2 is the upgrade to LRT. Basically a bus lane used as BRT

1 easily can be changed into a right-of-way for LRT. The width of a bus (2.55 m) is similar to a LRT vehicle

(2.65 m). A bus needs space for swaying on the lane; a LRT vehicle is fixed by the rails and cannot sway

much. Some space will be needed to place the poles for the overhead catenary system and extend

platforms (up to 75 meters depending on the vehicle type and the door arrangement).

Those needs of space along the lanes can be taken into account when planning the bus way. The real

challenge is to place the rails. Therefore the bus lane must be closed for a certain time and no BRT service

can be offered in that section. This needs a good planning of construction phases to reduce the impact

to the passengers. LRT operation can be launched as soon as all tracks are installed and the power supply

installations also are working and the related staff got trained.

6.1.4 Upgrade from LRT to BRT2

From the demand view it makes no sense to go back from high-capacity vehicles as used on LRT (up to

700 passengers per train set) to vehicles of lower capacity (250 passengers on BRT bus) and to destroy

an existing rail infrastructure. If there will be more than 15,000 passengers on a day in distant future on

a corridor in Windhoek the LRT better should be developed to a light metro.

6.1.5 Recommendation

For the development of public transport we recommend the start as a standard bus system. From the

beginning the operation has to be monitored and prioritisation measures installed on line 1, but also on

lines 2, 3, 4, and 11. Lines 5, 6, 8 and 12 will follow at a later stage.

Line 1 (north of CBS) should be updated to BRT1 service until 2022. Other lines also should step by step

be updated and converted into BRT1 service. In 2027 line 4 should be fully updated, but line 2 has just

little lower demand figures and should also become BRT1 service close to this date.

In 2032 line 1 will undergo the next update to LRT service. Lines 2, 3, 4 and 11 shall be fully updated to

BRT 1 service.

Network Development

This chapters show the phased approach of developing the network designed for 2017 to the SUMTP

based network for 2032.

6.2.1 2017 – The base Bus network

The approach pursued is holistic approach. Meaning, from day 1 of new service introduction, the

network is served as whole according to the demand identified by the SUMTP model. For 2017 a network

design was approved by the stakeholders. This system is described below.

Route 1:

Goreangab, Eveline Court – Eveline Street – Soweto Market – Independence Avenue – Katutura State

Hospital – Fire Brigade Circle – Government Office Park – Railway Station – Central Bus Station –

Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue – David Hosea Meroro (Hochland) Road – Rocky Crest (18,64 km;

additional services from Soweto Market to CBS during peak time: 7,63 km)




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Route 2:

Goreangab, Green Mountain Dam – Monte Christo Road – Lafrenz –Northern Industrial Area – Fire

brigade Circle – Government Office Park – Railway Station – Central Bus Station (13,95 km)

Route 3:

Otjomuise, Frankfurt Street – Delhi Square – Moses Garoeb Street – John Meinert Street - Central Bus

Station – Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue – Industrial Area South – Academia – UNAM (17,27 km)

Route 4:

Havana, Matshitshi Road – Soweto Market – Abraham Mashego Street – Florence Nightingale Street -

John Meinert Street - Central Bus Station - Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue – Sam Nuyoma Drive – Avis,

Michael Park (17,29 km)

Route 5:

Goreangab, Eveline Court – Otjomuise Road – Sam Nuyoma Drive – Hosea Kutako Drive – John Meinert

Street - Central Bus Station - Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue – Sam Nuyoma Drive – Robert Mugabe

Avenue – Mose Tjitendero Street – Kleine Kuppe (19,69 km)

Route 6: 8

Okuryangava, Julius Nyerere Street – Ongava Street – Monte Christo Road – Claudius Kandovazu Street

– Hans Dietrich Genscher Street – Mugunda Street – Shanghai Street – Florence Nightingale Street –

Hendrik Witbooi Drive – Pioniers Park – UNAM (21,20 km)

Route 8:

Goreangab, Eveline Court - Claudius Kandovazu Street – Soweto Market – Mugunda Street – Shanghai

Street – Independence Avenue - Katutura State Hospital – Hans Dietrich Genscher Street – Andrew

Kloppers Str. – Kornalyn Str. – Kranswael Street – Otjomuise, Delhi Square (15.03 km)

Route 11:

Okuryangava, Julius Nyerere Street – Omuvapu Street - Soweto Market – Independence Avenue –

Willibald Kapuenene Street - Northern Industrial Area – Rhino Park Hospital – Johann Albrecht Street -

John Meinert Street - Central Bus Station - Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue – Auas Road – Prosperita /

Cimbebasia (22,85 km)

Route 12:

Goreangab, Eveline Court –– Monte Christo Road – Shanghai Street - Independence Avenue – Katutura

State Hospital – Fire brigade Circle – Nelson Mandela Avenue – Jan Jonker Street - Mandume Ndemufayo

Avenue - Central Bus Station (18,75 km)

8 The route No. 7, 9 and 10 are not listed here for the following reason. Route No. 7 was used in SUTMP for a bus

line within Brakwater area, so this pre-feasibility study did not use this for a bus line in Windhoek area. During

network development process the routes 11 and 12 were created, as variations of the Route No. 1 and No. 2. So

they got corresponding numbers, No.11 as variation of line 1 and No.12 as variation of line 2. Later on they got

more and more discrete routes, but they kept its numbers and so No. 9 and 10 stayed unused.

56

Figure 6-2: Bus network 2017 (Scenario 2A as presented on workshop in October 2014)

57

6.2.2 2032 – Full Network

General

Based on the demand figures as calculated and described under chapter 4 the urban transport System

2032 should consist of 5 routes operated by BRT:

a. CBS – Independence – Katutura – Wanaheda – Havana – Monte-Christo (new development area)

b. CBS – Hosea Kutako – Northern Industrial Area – Monte Christo

c. CBS – Moses Garoeb – Otjomuise

d. CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market

e. Willibald Kapuenene – Dortmund – Northern Industrial Area

Each route will be served by minimum one line over the full length, but there will also be other lines

using just a section of this BRT route or combining sections of different BRT routes.

The figures for the demand model of the SUTMP regrettably show no sufficient demand for BRT on a

route in the southern or eastern part of Windhoek, e.g. for a route CBD – UNAM or routes to Klein

Windhoek and Avis. This way some lines become split. Example: Line 1 from Wanaheda to Rocky Crest

(in 2017) gets divided in Line T1 (BRT) from Wanaheda to CBD and Line 1 (urban bus) from CBS to Rocky

Crest.

Network

Independent from the step 2027 now the full network shall become completed. The network now can

be described as follows:

Figure 6-3: BRT Lines

BRT Lines:

T 1 CBS – Independence – Soweto Market – Havana – Monte Christo (Northern Development

Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable in north-western direction

T 2 CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Northern Industrial Area – Monte Christo Road – Goreangab



T 11 CBS – Independence Avenue - Northern Industrial Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market

Remark: It will be helpful for operation if there is not only one terminus at CBS but a second one at

KFC.




Draft Final Report

June 2015

58

Figure 6-4: BRT Lines

Bus lines:

1 CBS – David Hosea Meroro (Hochland) – Rocky Crest

3 CBS – Southern Industrial Area – Academia – UNAM

4 CBS – Klein Windhoek – Avis

5 Okuryangava – Soweto Market – Otjomuise Road – Sam Nuyoma Drive – Hosea Kutako Drive

- John Meinert Street - Central Bus Station - Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue – Sam Nuyoma

Drive – Robert Mugabe Avenue – Mose Tjitendero Street – Kleine Kuppe

6 Okuryangava, Julius Nyerere Street – Ongava Street – Monte Christo Road – Claudius

Kandovazu Street – Hans Dietrich Genscher Street – Mugunda Street – Shanghai Street –

Florence Nightingale Street – Hendrik Witbooi Drive – Pioniers Park – UNAM

8 Goreangab, Eveline Street - Claudius Kandovazu Street – Soweto Market – Mugunda Street

– Shanghai Street – Independence Avenue - Katutura State Hospital – Hans Dietrich Genscher

Street – Andrew Kloppers Str. – Kornalyn Str. – Kranswael Street – Otjomuise, Delhi Square

– Otjomuise West

11 Okuryangava (Ongava) – Monte Christo – Hereford – Shanghai – Willibald Kapuenene –

Mahatma Ghandi – Hosea Kutako Drive – CBS – Auas Road – Prosperita/Cimbebasia

12 Eveline Street – Brug Street – Rand Street – Fire Brigade Circle – Eros Park – Klein Windhoek

– CBS

The following map shows the network in graphical elaboration.

59

Figure 6-5: Full Network Map

60

Bus network 2032 with four BRT routes, used by five lines, on Independence Avenue, Monte Christo

Road, Florence Nightingale Street and Moses Garoeb Street.

6.2.3 Implementation steps towards full network

The intermediate years are shown below. The demand has been linearly interpolated between 2017 and

2032.

2022 - First BRT Route

The first route of the urban BRT system has to be the route with the significant high demand figures:

Route 1 = Line T1 along Independence Avenue from CBS north via Railway Station – Fire Brigade Circle –

Soweto market as the first section (approx. 8 km). Later (2027?) extended to north-west via Otjomuise

Street – Monte Christo Road into new development areas north of Havana (approx. 16 km).

The maximum load on this route is calculated with 3350 pphpd. Therefore trains of double-articulated

buses (capacity 250 passengers each) must serve the route every 4 minutes. So 15 BRT-buses + spare

vehicles are needed.

The bus lines involved are:

1 Reduced to: CBS – David Hosea Meroro (Hochland) Road – Rocky Crest

2 Deviation: CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Fire Brigade Circle - (than as Scenario 2A) – Monte Christo

Road – Goreangab

11 Eveline Court – Monte Christo Road – Hereford – Shanghai – Willibald Kapuenene – Mahatma

Ghandi – Hosea Kutako Drive – CBS

12 Okuryangava – Soweto Market – Dortmund – Fire Brigade Circle – Eros Park – Klein Windhoek -

CBS

61

Figure 6-6: Bus network 2022 with the first BRT route along Independence Avenue (Soweto Market to CBS)

62

2027 - Second Route (Alternative 1: Monte Christo)

The SUTMP recommended as first routes of high performance the Independence Avenue and Monte

Christo Road. Following this recommendation the network can be developed like this:

The second route shall be along Monte Christo and serve the Northern Industrial Area. In addition the

branch via Dortmund Street is added to this network development stage. The BRT routes are now:

T 1 CBS – Independence – Soweto Market – Havana – Monte Christo Road (Northern Development

Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable in north-western direction

T 2 CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Northern Industrial Area – Monte Christo Road – Goreangab

T 11 CBS – Independence - Northern Industrial Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market (approx. 9 km)

The bus lines involved are:

1 Reduced to: CBS – David Hosea Meroro (Hochland) – Rocky Crest (approx. 7 km)

2 replaced by BRT T2

8 Extended to Eveline Street (approx. 2.5 km)

11 partly new route: Okuryangava (Ongava) – Monte Christo – Hereford – Shanghai – Willibald

Kapuenene – Mahatma Ghandi – Hosea Kutako Drive – CBS

12 partly new route: Okuryangava – Soweto Market – Rand Street – Fire Brigade Circle – Eros Park

– Klein Windhoek – CBS

63

Figure 6-7: Bus network 2027 with BRT routes on Independence Ave. and Monte Christo Road

64

2027 - Second Route (Alternative 2: Florence Nightingale)

The demand figures taken from SUTMP data lead to the recommendation that line 4 will be the better

choice to become converted into BRT service. In this case the network would look like this:

T 1 CBS – Independence – Soweto Market – Havana – Monte Christo Road (North-Western

Development Area) – extendable in north-western direction

T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Abraham Mashego Street – Soweto Market


The bus lines involved in this case are:

1 Reduced to: CBS – David Hosea Meroro (Hochland) – Rocky Crest

2 Deviation: CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Fire Brigade Circle - (than as Scenario 2A) – Monte Christo

– Goreangab

4 Reduced to: CBS – Klein Windhoek - Avis

8 Extended to Eveline Street (approx. 2.5 km)

11 partly new route: Okuryangava (Ongava) – Monte Christo – Hereford – Shanghai – Willibald

Kapuenene – Mahatma Ghandi – Hosea Kutako Drive – CBS – Auas Road – Prosperita/Cimbebasia

12 partly new route: Okuryangava – Soweto Market – Rand Street – Fire Brigade Circle – Eros Park

– Klein Windhoek – CBS

65

Figure 6-8: Bus network 2027 – Alternative - with BRT routes on Independence Ave and Florence Nightingale instead of Monte Christo

66

Operation characteristics

Related to the network development the system operation characteristics were also prepared to obtain

necessary input for the cost estimate. These six operation characteristics cover mainly:

- Number of standard buses (12 m)

- Number of Articulated buses (18 m)

- Number of double Articulated buses (24m)

- Number of BRT Units

- Number of LRT vehicles

The numbers calculated show the required units for operation and the capacity reserve (maintenance

and repaid / Down time) to ensure 100% availability.

6.3.1 2017 Operation characteristics

2017 only Bus Lines are operated, on the section between Soweto Market and CBS buses are prioritized

by selected sections of separated lanes to avoid obstacles by traffic jam and pre-emption of robots as a

first step into BRT operation.

For the yellow marked lines articulated buses are recommended. So the need of vehicles is 85 buses of

12-m length and 31 articulated buses of 18 m length. (If only 12-m buses would be available, the number

must be 135 by a higher frequency on the yellow marked lines).

Figure 6-9: Operation Characteristics 2017

max

speed

Average

Speed

Length of

route

Minimum

Roundtrip

Time

Need of

Buses

Frequency

Peak

No of

buses/h

km/h km/h m Min. no. *) min Planned

Line 1: Eveline Court <-> Rocky Crest 50 18,1 17450 140 7 20 3

Line 1A: Eveline Court <-> CBS 50 18,1 11570 100 5 20 3

Line 1B: Soweto Market <-> CBS 50 18,7 7620 70 7 10 6

Line 11: Okuryangava <-> Prosperita 50 17,3 23310 180 12 15 4

Line 12: Eveline Court <-> Eros Park <-> CBS 50 17,2 18750 150 10 15 4

Line 2: Goreangab <-> CBS 50 18,8 13940 120 8 15 4

Line 3: Otjomuise West <-> UNAM 50 17,4 17280 150 5 30 2

Line 3X: Otjomuise <-> UNAM 50 18,4 13270 90 3 30 2

Line 4: Havana <-> Avis 50 16,5 17290 150 5 30 2

Line 4X: Havana <-> CBS 50 16,5 11290 98 13 8 8

Line 5: Eveline <-> Kleine Kuppe 50 18,5 20550 150 10 15 4

Line 6: Maxuilili <-> UNAM 50 16,4 21200 180 12 15 4

Line 8: Eveline Court <-> Otjomuise 50 16,5 15030 120 4 30 2

12-m 74

18-m 27

12-m 85

18-m 31

101

116inc. 15%

spare




Draft Final Report

June 2015

67


2022 the first BRT line is to be operated (red marked in table above). 14 double articulated buses will be

needed for this. The number of 12-m-buses is nearly on the same level as in 2015, but the number of

articulated buses now increased significantly to about 100 vehicles.

Figure 6-10 Operation Characteristics 2022


In the case of realisation Line 4 / Florence Nightingale Road as the second BRT in 2027 the number of

double articulated buses needed is about 50. 12-m buses dropped down to a number of 70, but

articulated buses increased to about 140.

RISK: that Windhoek now has been grown. New settlement areas may require additional bus service in

so a higher number of vehicles than calculated above.

Average

Speed

Length of

route

Minimum

Roundtrip

Time

Need of

Buses

Frequency

Peak

No of

buses/h

km/h m Min. no. *) min Planned

Line 1: Eveline Court <-> Rocky Crest 18,1 17450 140 7 20 3

Line 1A: Eveline Court <-> CBS 18,1 11570 100 5 20 3

Line 1B: Soweto Market <-> CBS 18,7 7620 70 7 10 6

Line 11: Okuryangava <-> Prosperita 17,3 23310 180 12 15 4

Line 12: Eveline Court <-> Eros Park <-> CBS 17,2 18750 150 10 15 4

Line 2: Goreangab <-> CBS 18,8 13940 120 8 15 4

Line 3: Otjomuise West <-> UNAM 17,4 17280 150 5 30 2

Line 3X: Otjomuise <-> UNAM 18,4 13270 90 3 30 2

Line 4: Havana <-> Avis 16,5 17290 150 5 30 2

Line 4X: Havana <-> CBS 16,5 11290 98 13 8 8

Line 5: Eveline <-> Kleine Kuppe 18,5 20550 150 10 15 4

Line 6: Maxuilili <-> UNAM 16,4 21200 180 12 15 4

Line 8: Eveline Court <-> Otjomuise 16,5 15030 120 4 30 2

Number of vehicles per type without spare 12-m 74

18-m 27

Number of vehicles per type incl. spare 12-m 85

18-m 31

101

116inc. 15%

spare

Average

Speed

Length of

route

Minimum

Roundtrip

Time

Need of

Buses

Frequency

Peak

No of

buses/h

km/h m Min. no. min Planned

Line T1: Soweto Market <-> CBS 23,8 7620 60 12 5 12

Line 1: CBS <-> Rocky Crest 18,9 6030 60 4 15 4

Line 11: Eveline Court <-> Prosperita 17,3 23670 180 30 6 10

Line 12: Okuryangava <-> Eros Park <-> CBS 16,8 18920 150 30 5 12

Line 2: Goreangab <-> CBS 18,8 13940 102 17 6 10

Line 3: Otjomuise West <-> UNAM 17,4 17280 132 11 12 5

Line 3X: Otjomuise <-> UNAM 18,1 13270 96 8 12 5

Line 4: Havana <-> Avis 16,5 17290 150 10 15 4

Line 4A: Havana <-> CBS 16,5 11290 98 13 8 8

Line 5: Eveline <-> Kleine Kuppe 18,5 20550 143 19 8 8

Line 6: Maxuilili <-> UNAM 16,4 21200 170 17 10 6

Line 8: Eveline Court <-> Otjomuise 16,6 18070 150 15 10 6


18-m 89

24-m 12


18-m 102

24-m 14

inc. 15%

spare




Draft Final Report

June 2015

68

Figure 6-11: Operation Characteristics 2027

6.3.4 2032 Operation characteristics – BRT only

Final calculation for the situation in 2032: 12-m-buses are not needed anymore (on the lines as described

above, may be on additional routes at new settlement areas), but the number of articulated buses and

double articulated buses increased to 168 resp. 85. The routes operating along Independence Ave now

will have reached a frequency on the level to change into LRT operation.

The following table gives an overview of the development of vehicle needs and in addition the

development of revenue-km per year and the number of drivers needed to operate the lines.

Figure 6-12: Operation Characteristics 2032 (BRT)

Average

Speed

Length of

route

Minimum

Roundtrip

Time

Need of

Buses

Frequency

Peak

No of

buses/h


Line 1: CBS <-> Rocky Crest 19,2 6030 60 8 7,5 8

Line T1: Havana <-> CBS 23,9 11590 79 21 3,75 16

Line 11: Okuryangava <-> Prosperita 17,6 22560 173 23 7,5 8

Line 12: Okuryangava <-> Eros Park <-> CBS 16,2 18780 156 26 6,0 10

Line 2: Goreangab <-> CBS 17,7 12680 100 20 5,0 12

Line 3: Otjomuise West <-> UNAM 17,4 17280 135 18 7,5 8

Line 3X: Otjomuise <-> UNAM 18,1 13270 98 13 7,5 8

Line T11: Soweto Market <-> CBS 25,1 9030 60 12 5,0 12

Line 4: CBS <-> Avis 17,1 6000 60 6 10,0 6


Line 5: Eveline <-> Kleine Kuppe 18,5 19690 140 14 10,0 6

Line 6: Maxuilili <-> UNAM 16,4 21200 168 28 6,0 10

Line 8: Eveline Court <-> Otjomuise 16,8 18070 144 24 6,0 10


18-m 120

24-m 42


18-m 138

24-m 48

inc. 15%

spare

Average

Speed

Length of

route

Minimum

Roundtrip

Time

Need of

Vehicles

Frequency

Peak

No of

buses/h


Line T1: Havana <-> CBS 23,9 11590 78 31 2,5 24

Line T2: Goreangab <-> CBS 21,4 12680 84 7 12,0 5

Line T12: Eveline <-> CBS 22,1 11590 84 7 12,0 5

Line T3: Otjomuise <-> CBS 20,9 7180 60 12 5,0 12






Line 3: CBS <-> UNAM 17,1 7570 75 5 15,0 4

Line 3X: CBS <-> UNAM 18,6 6090 60 4 15,0 4


Line 4: CBS <-> Avis 16,5 6000 60 8 7,5 8


Line 8: Eveline Court <-> Otjomuise West 16,6 20600 165 22 7,5 8


18-m 146

24-m 74


18-m 168

24-m 85

inc. 15%

spare




Draft Final Report

June 2015

69

6.3.5 2032 Operation characteristics – first LRT line

In comparison to the scenario before the number of 12- and 18-m buses did not change. Operation on

the standard bus lines is identic. The number of 24-m-buses drops to about 50 since a big part of

operation is changed to LRT. According to this now 30 LRV are required.

Figure 6-13: Figure 6-14: Operation Characteristics 2032 – First LRT Line

6.3.6 Synopsis of operational Data

The following table summarises operational data for all options.

Average

Speed

Length of

route

Minimum

Roundtrip

Time

Need of

Vehicles

Frequency

Peak

No of

buses/h


Line T1: Havana <-> CBS 23,9 11590 78 26 6,0 10

Line T2: Goreangab <-> CBS 21,4 12680 84 7 12,0 5

Line T12: Eveline <-> CBS 22,1 11590 84 7 12,0 5

Line T3: Otjomuise <-> CBS 20,9 7180 60 12 5,0 12






Line 3: CBS <-> UNAM 17,1 7570 75 5 15,0 4

Line 3X: CBS <-> UNAM 18,6 6090 60 4 15,0 4


Line 4: CBS <-> Avis 16,5 6000 60 8 7,5 8


Line 8: Eveline Court <-> Otjomuise West 16,6 20600 165 22 7,5 8


18-m 146

24-m 43

LRV 26


18-m 168

24-m 49

LRV 30

inc. 15%

spare




Draft Final Report

June 2015

70

Figure 6-15: Operational Data 2015-2032

The operational data is based on the following schedules:

In 2015 (implementation):

Route Frequency length trip roundtrip Trips / day km/a time/a

m time Mo-Fr Sa SoH

oli

Line 1: Eveline Court <->

Rocky Crest

30 17450 2,5 40 38 36 496.976,0 35.600,0

Line 1A: Eveline Court <-

> CBS

30 11570 1,5 40 38 36 329.513,6 21.360,0

Line 1B: Soweto Market

<-> CBS

15 7620 1,1 44 28 0 189.341,8 13.977,0

Line 11: Okuryangava <-

> Prosperita

15 23310 3,0 54 38 36 825.733,4 53.136,0

Line 12: Eveline Court <-

> Eros Park <-> CBS

30 18750 2,5 40 38 36 534.000,0 35.600,0

Line 2: Goreangab <->

CBS

15 13250 1,8 54 38 36 469.368,0 30.996,0

Line 3: Otjomuise West

<-> UNAM

30 17280 2,5 40 38 36 492.134,4 35.600,0

Line 3X: Otjomuise <->

UNAM

30 13270 1,5 14 0 0 92.146,9 5.208,0

Operation Phase 2015

Implementation

2015

Full Service

2022

First BRT

2027

2nd BRT

2032

BRT Complete

2032

First LRT

No of Lines

Bus 9 9 9 9 8 8

BRT 0 0 1 2 5 4

LRT 0 0 0 0 0 1

Performance

Revenue-km/a 5.789.242 7.097.995 13.010.704 15.807.695 17.437.264 15.678.505

Non-Revenue-km/a 289.462 354.900 650.535 790.385 871.863 783.925

Total km/a 6.078.704 7.452.894 13.661.240 16.598.080 18.309.127 16.462.430

Revenue-km per Vehicle type per year

12-m-bus 5.789.242 5.136.222 6.233.355 7.082.452 0 0

18-m-bus 0 1.961.773 5.914.704 5.708.077 10.606.896 10.606.896

24-m-bus 0 0 862.645 3.017.166 6.830.368 4.206.206

Light Rail Vehicle 0 0 0 0 0 865.402

Average km per Vehicle type per year

12-m-bus 76.606 63.373 66.957 107.776 0 0

18-m-bus 0 66.340 60.678 43.431 66.333 66.333

24-m-bus 0 0 65.636 65.591 84.276 89.313

Light Rail Vehicle 0 0 0 0 0 30.390

Average km per Vehicle type per day

12-m-bus 210 174 183 295 0 0

18-m-bus 0 182 166 119 182 182

24-m-bus 0 0 180 180 231 245

Light Rail Vehicle 0 0 0 0 0 83

Number of vehicles per type for peak hour operation

12-m-bus 69 74 85 60 0 0

18-m-bus 0 27 89 120 146 146

24-m-bus 0 0 12 42 74 43


Number of vehicles per type incl. Maintenance and stand-by

12-m-bus 79 85 98 69 0 0

18-m-bus 0 31 102 138 168 168

24-m-bus 0 0 14 48 85 49


drivers duties

hours /a 412.030 510.392 888.354 1.031.121 1.142.472 1.039.894

Number drivers 234 290 505 586 649 591




Draft Final Report

June 2015

71


m time Mo-Fr Sa SoH

oli

Line 4: Havana <-> Avis 30 17290 2,5 40 38 36 492.419,2 35.600,0

Line 4X: Havana <-> CBS 30 11290 1,8 30 28 26 239.122,2 18.532,5

Line 5: Eveline <-> Kleine

Kuppe

30 20950 2,5 40 38 36 596.656,0 35.600,0

Line 6: Maxuilili <->

UNAM

30 21200 3,0 40 38 36 603.776,0 42.720,0


Otjomuise

30 15030 2,0 40 38 36 428.054,4 28.480,0

516 436 386

revenue km/a 5.789.241,9 392.409,5

non-revenue km/a (5%) 289.462,1 19.620,5

Total 6.078.704,0 412.030,0

In 2015 (full service):


m time Mo-Fr Sa SoHo

li


Rocky Crest

20 17450 2,3 47 38 36 557.562,4 37.277,3

Line 1A: Eveline Court <-

> CBS

20 11570 1,7 47 38 36 369.684,6 26.626,7

Line 1B: Soweto Market

<-> CBS

10 7620 1,2 76 52 49 377.083,3 28.866,8


> Prosperita

15 23310 3,0 62 52 49 991.654,0 63.813,0

Line 12: Eveline Court <-

> Eros Park <-> CBS

15 18750 2,5 54 38 36 664.200,0 44.280,0


CBS

15 13940 2,0 62 52 49 593.035,5 42.542,0


<-> UNAM

30 17280 2,5 40 38 36 492.134,4 35.600,0


UNAM

30 13270 1,5 14 0 0 92.146,9 5.208,0

Line 4: Havana <-> Avis 30 17290 2,5 40 38 36 492.419,2 35.600,0

Line 4X: Havana <-> CBS 8 11290 1,6 88 56 0 561.067,8 40.378,0

Line 5: Eveline <->

Kleine Kuppe

15 20550 2,5 54 38 36 727.963,2 44.280,0


UNAM

15 21200 3,0 54 38 36 750.988,8 53.136,0


Otjomuise

30 15030 2,0 40 38 36 428.054,4 28.480,0

678 516 435

revenue km/a 7.097.994,

6

486.087,8

non-revenue km/a (5%) 354.899,7 24.304,4

Total 7.452.894,3 510.392,2




Draft Final Report

June 2015

72

18-m revenue km/a 1.961.772,8

non-revenue km/a (5%) 98.088,6

Total 2.059.861,5

12-m revenue km/a 5.136.221,8

non-revenue km/a (5%) 256.811,1

Total 5.393.032,8

In 2027


m time Mo-Fr Sa SoHo

li

Line T1: Havana <-> CBS 4 11590 1,3 212 160 98 1.562.100,2 44.224,7

Line T4: Soweto Market

<-> CBS

8 7320 1,1 104 84 52 491.962,6 37.804,5

Line T11: Soweto

Market <-> CBS

5 9030 1,0 168 132 72 963.103,7 53.328,0

Line 1: CBS <-> Rocky

Crest

8 6030 1,0 124 104 72 493.302,2 40.904,0


> Prosperita

8 22560 2,9 124 104 72 1.845.588,5 117.599,0


CBS

5 12680 1,7 168 132 72 1.352.398,1 88.880,0

Line 12: Okuryangava

<-> Eros Park <-> CBS

6 18780 2,6 138 104 72 1.666.762,6 115.377,6


<-> UNAM

8 17280 2,3 124 104 72 1.413.642,2 92.034,0


UNAM

8 13270 1,6 104 84 52 891.850,2 54.606,5

Line 4: CBS <-> Avis 10 6000 1,0 94 76 72 383.424,0 31.952,0

Line 5: Eveline <->

Kleine Kuppe

10 19690 2,3 94 76 72 1.258.269,8 74.554,7


UNAM

6 21200 2,8 138 104 72 1.881.542,4 124.252,8


Otjomuise

6 18070 2,4 138 104 72 1.603.748,6 106.502,4

1730 136

8

922 15.807.695,

0

982.020,2

790.384,8 49.101,0

16.598.079,

8

1.031.121

,2

Revenue km / a 12 7.082.451,5

Revenue km / a 18 5.708.077,0

Revenue km / a 24 3.017.166,4

In 2032




Draft Final Report

June 2015

73


m time Mo-Fr Sa SoH

oli

Line T1: Havana <-> CBS 3 11590,0 1,3 336 264 248 2.624.161,4 146.227,0

Line T2: Goreangab <->

CBS

12 12680,0 1,4 69 52 49 583.457,5 32.209,8

Line T12: Eveline <->

CBS

12 11590,0 1,4 69 52 49 533.302,3 32.209,8

Line T3: Otjomuise <->

CBS

5 7180,0 1,0 168 132 124 812.833,4 56.604,0

Line T4: Soweto Market

<-> CBS

5 11080,0 1,0 168 132 124 1.254.344,6 56.604,0

Line T11: Soweto

Market <-> CBS

5 9030,0 1,0 168 132 124 1.022.268,2 56.604,0

Line 1: CBS <-> Rocky

Crest

8 6030,0 1,0 124 104 98 513.056,5 42.542,0


> Prosperita

8 22560,0 2,9 104 84 78 1.590.119,0 101.320,8


> Eros Park <-> CBS

5 18780,0 2,5 168 132 124 2.126.046,2 141.510,0

Line 3: CBS <-> UNAM 15 7570,0 1,3 54 38 36 268.159,7 22.140,0

Line 3X: CBS <-> UNAM 15 6090,0 1,0 44 28 0 151.324,3 12.424,0

Line 5: Eveline <->

Kleine Kuppe

6 20550,0 2,3 138 104 98 1.891.175,4 105.832,2

Line 4: CBS <-> Avis 8 6000,0 1,0 124 104 98 510.504,0 42.542,0


UNAM

8 21200,0 2,9 124 104 98 1.803.780,8 122.308,3


Otjomuise West

8 20600,0 2,8 124 104 98 1.752.730,4 116.990,5

revenue km/a 17.437.263,9 1.088.068,3

non-revenue km/a (5%) 871.863,2 54.403,4

Total 18.309.127,1 1.142.471,7

Revenue 18 10.606.896,4

Revenue 24 6.830.367,5




Draft Final Report

June 2015

74

7 Analysis and Conceptual Design of BRT and LRT Routes / Design and Route Refinement

Screening of the BRT and LRT corridors

The complete screening report has been delivered within the inception phase, and attached as annex 2

to the said report. The mapping of the routes also took place.

The introduction of BRT lines into the bus network will require infrastructural changes such as

reservation of Bus lanes, intersection upgrades and the relocation of the bus stops located on the sides

of the roadway to stations which are in the centre of the roadway.

The absolute minimum width of two BRT lanes next to each other is 7 m (2 x 3.5m). Currently municipal

road widths vary between 3.1m and 3.4m.

Along the full length for the T1 BRT line, the areas with significant restrictions are:

1) Bahnhof Street, as it is fairly within a build-up area and the roadway width will not allow any

mixed traffic lanes.

2) Simon de Wit Bridge, here the full bridge width will be occupied by BRT. Thus this roadway will

no longer be available to mixed traffic. Mixed traffic will have to be diverted to Robert Mugabe

Avenue. The Traffic circle in the vicinity of the Fire Brigade will also have to be upgraded to a T-

junction in order to accommodate the BRT line and retain traffic flow.

3) The traffic circle at the intersection of Mugunda Street and Independence Avenue will have to

be upgraded to incorporate the BRT line.

Along Monte Christo Road the reservation of the road reserve is of utmost importance in order to reduce

additional relocation costs should this land be occupied.

Enough road reserve is available in all other section to allow BRT and mixed traffic. There is variation in

available area along the length of the corridor and the location of BRT stations, allowance of mixed traffic

and possibly bus stations should be carefully considered.

Regarding T2 no definite areas of restriction could be identified. The most prominent areas of interest

are:

1) Within Hosea Kutako drive ample road reserve exists. The narrowest area is within the Northern

Industrial Area with a restriction to 36m but this is still sufficient for a full scope of traffic lanes.

2) Monte Christo road also has ample road reserve but will require a major amount of earthworks.

The addition of the BRT line to the south (and not in the centre) of the current roadway should

also be considered, as here there are only a limited number of crossings to the south and thus

would reduce the traffic intersections with the BRT line.

3) As previously outlined the reservation of roadway reserve after the crossing between Otjomuise

Road and Monte Christo Road should be urgently addressed. The encroachment of houses onto

the road reserve should be strictly controlled to prevent unnecessary land acquisitions and

uprooting of families.

Line T3 will necessitate the closure of a section of John Meinert Street to the mixed traffic as of the

intersection with Johann Albrecht Street up to Bach Street. The Bridge in Hydra Street will require

widening to allow for mixed traffic. Bonn Street will also present a challenge especially in the provision

for an area to turn as well as the area to build a station.

Line T4 will utilise the lanes of T2 and T1 respectively. At its diversion from these lines the major

restriction is the bridge crossing the Western Bypass.




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Utilizing the minimum lane widths both a single BRT and mixed traffic lane in both directions can be

facilitated. The arrangement of stations will require additional attention as the area is build up. It might

require the acquisition of land to enable enough road width.

Existing transit services and infrastructure

Currently only bus stops on the sides of the roadway exist in various locations. These will be inadequate

for the BRT line operations. Stations, also known as platforms, will be required in the Centre of the BRT

line for the utilisation by BRT passengers. This type of facility will also help manage the ticketing process

that accompanies the BRT operations.

Some roads will need to cater for both BRT as well as bus lines. Here the stations should be within close

proximity to each other to allow easy transfers.

Existing and future roadway and intersection geometries

Controlled intersections are required whenever the BRT lines are crossed by mixed traffic or NMT. This

allows the prioritised BRT to operate smoothly but also gives the other traffic an opportunity to cross

the BRT line. Some recommendations regarding right hand turns across BRT lines indicate that this type

of traffic interaction should be avoided and alternatives are to be considered.

The main changes to intersections relates to the upgrading of all traffic circles (Fire Brigade, Katutura

Hospital) crossed by BRT lines to be changed to intersection regulated by traffic lights.

Existing and future traffic conditions and travel flows

In order to increase the efficiency of BRT lines the prioritisation and synchronisation of traffic controls

with the BRT vehicles can be considered.

Due to the BRT lanes the following road sections will have to be closed to mixed traffic.

1) Bahnhof street – from intersection with John Meinert up to Independence Avenue

2) Simon de Wit Bridge

3) Bridge on Prum Street crossing the B1 (or it requires widening to allow mixed traffic)

4) Willibald Kapuenene – from the intersection with Hans Dietrich Genscher Street up to the

intersection with Independence Avenue.

Right of way and other engineering, social and environmental constraints

All 4-way stops encountered in the alignment of a BRT line will need to be converted to a signalised

intersection. The same is required for any existing traffic circles. Currently the following intersections

have been identified:

1) Robert Mugabe & Independence Avenue

2) 4-way stops along Hosea Kutako Drive

3) Otjomuise & Eveline / Claudius Kondovanzu Street

4) Florence Nightingale & Kitaar / Safari Street

5) Moses Garoeb & Bonn Street

6) Willibald Kapuenene & Munjuku Nguvauva

7) Dortmund Street & Newcastle / Bonsmara Street

The following bridges will be affected (either closed to mixed traffic or will require widening):

a) Simon de Wit (on Independence Avenue)




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b) Dortmund / Prum Street, widening possible

c) Hydra Street, widening possible

d) Moses Garoeb Street (close to intersection with Kornalyn / Andrew Kloppers Street), widening

possible

Several culvert structures of various sizes will need to be extended to facilitate the wider roadway.

The alignment of the LRT line along the T1 route will require consideration of the Simon de Wet bridge

super-elevation and gradients.

The continued reservation of currently available road reserves along all BRT corridors is of utmost

importance. This is also applicable especially in the Goreangab and Big Bend areas along Monte Christo

as informal housing tendencies can be noticed.

The closure of Bahnhof Street to mixed traffic will have a significant impact on the business along the

road. Regarding the section of John Meinert, this will require the reassessment and re-organisation of

the mixed traffic for the surrounding residential areas. A diversion of the mixed traffic from

Independence Avenue to Robert Mugabe will also have a significant influence on the traffic flow in

Robert Mugabe. The businesses along Independence Avenue that form the intersection with Bahnhof

until Simon de Wet Bridge will also be affected.

The utilisation of the flood plains or the embankments of rivers, in order to widen the roadway to

accommodate all modes of traffic, should be critically considered not to cause ponding upstream or

erosion downstream or induce any other changes to the river flow. The utilisation of the road reserve

will inevitably require the removal of vegetation that has presided within these areas, but it is

recommended that the utilisation of the road reserve shall be done in the most effective means not to

unnecessarily uproot indigenous vegetation.

Overall the traffic flow within the City of Windhoek will need to be reassessed due to the introduction

of the bus, BRT and eventually LRT lines.

Positioning of Line – BRT and LRT

One major consideration with regard to the location of BRT lines is the location of the lanes. Two options

present themselves which are if the line should be accommodated on the outer lanes or the centre lane

of the roadway. Within the Namibian context the following has been considered in order to decide on

the most economical and feasible location of the BRT line.

The decision parameters weighed up below are considered to be the criteria with a high design impact

and therefore will have the greatest cost impact on the implementation of a BRT system. The upgrading

of the BRT system to a higher capacity LRT system is also considered. The table below depicts the high

level comparison between the two standard options.

Table 7-1: Positioning of Line – Centre vs. Outside

Consideration Having BRT in the Middle Having BRT on the Outside

1 Station location No conflict with alternative

service suppliers - PRO

Conflict with alternative

service suppliers - CON

2 Extension/addition of traffic

lanes

No hindrance - PRO Major hindrance would require

major reconstruction and

interruption to service - CON

3 BRT line crossing or turning at

Intersections

Traffic turning right has to

cross both BRT lines, only

All turning traffic (left & right)

need to cross BRT lines, hinders

both set of turning traffic - CON




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Consideration Having BRT in the Middle Having BRT on the Outside

hinders traffic turning right -

PRO

4 Number of Stations required One station required for both

directions - PRO

Two station required per

stopping location, one per

direction - CON

5 Physical barriers to other

Traffic

On inside of lanes, does not

interfere with loading areas

for other service providers -

PRO

On outer side of each lane,

interferes with loading areas

for other service providers -

CON

6 Curve Radii Median of general traffic,

PRO

Sets minimum curve radii,

therefore curves will require

larger radius overall - CON

7 Upgrade to LRT, positioning in

centre of roadway

BRT lanes reserve required

area for LRT - PRO

BRT lanes on outside but LRT

requires area on inside - CON

8 Upgrade to LRT, Station

location

BRT stations are at correct

position for LRT operation -

PRO

BRT outer stations no longer

required, new stations needed

in centre of roadway - CON

9 Upgrade to LRT, radii at turns Due to being in centre of

roadway radii larger than

minimum of roadway,

minimum impact – PRO

BRT will set minimum radii at

turns, LRT minimum radius

greater than BRT thus

minimum radius needs to be

even greater, major impact -

CON

10 Busses required for operation

of BRT

Buses with doors on LHS and

lateral platforms are also

feasible – but all the

following is based on special

buses. This should be

discussed later on in a

detailed design phase - CON

Bus doors are in correct

position - PRO

11 Expansion/addition of Bus/BRT

Lanes

Reorganisation of all lanes,

affecting mixed traffic lanes

as well - CON

Simple addition of more lanes,

no effect on mixed traffic - PRO

From the above table it is clear that the placement of the BRT and eventually LRT systems in the centre

of the roadway is the most feasible solution. This resolve brings with it the challenge that the current

busses (used in current and future bus operations) will not be directly useable within the BRT context.

The only means of enabling the use of the current busses within the BRT system would be if the BRT

system would operate in the opposite direction compared to the general traffic.

This resolution has the additional advantage that apart from the physical barriers to keep other traffic

off the BRT dedicated lanes, the reverse direction of busses travelling on the BRT lanes will also act as a

deterring factor for any other transportation to utilise the BRT lanes.

The disadvantage of the system is that due to the reversed travelling direction, the full scope of works

in connection with the BRT system will need to take cognisance of the requirements. This includes all

design services, construction activities as well as operation of the BRT busses. The reversed travelling




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direction will affect all intersections, which will become points of major traffic conflict and hazard areas.

In addition the bus drivers would need to be specially trained to enable them to operate the BRT busses.

Due to the above the BRT lines are considered to travel in the current traffic direction, which thus

requires that special BRT busses be procured.

The Guidelines for Human Settlement Planning and Design by the Council for Scientific and Industrial

Research (CSIR) Volume 2 of 2000, considers the following principle design elements as controlling

criteria that require formal approval and documentation each time they are not attained. The

controlling criteria are:

- Design speed [60 km/h]

- Lane width [3,4m]

- Climbing lane [3,4m]

- Shoulder width [1,0m – 3,0m]

- Minimum turning radii [SU – single unit - 12,8m]

- Horizontal curvature [60km/h; 600m]

- Horizontal curve radii [rate of -0,02, 205m; rate of +0,02, 160m]

- Vertical curvature [60km/h; Crest K=16]

- Vertical curve length [60km/h; 100m]

- Gradient [max 6%]

- Stopping sight distance [80m for 60km/h]

- Normal cross slopes (crown) [2% – 3%]

- Super-elevation, mixed usage (high order [4% - 6%])

- Rate of super-elevation runoff [60km/h, 0,6%, min 40m]

7.2.1 BRT geometric layout considerations From the above when considering a BRT system the amended design criteria are:

- Lane width [3,7m for HOV - high occupancy vehicle]

- Climbing lane [3,7m]

- Turning Radii [14,0m SU+T - SU+T = single unit plus trailer; Bus 13,1m]

Effect of BRT bus length on Roundabouts can be classified as follows:

Table 7-2: Effect of BRT bus length on Roundabouts

Roundabout Types

Type or Use Design Vehicle Red Book

Table7.2* Design Speed (km/h)

Inscribed Circle Diameter(ICD)(m)

Mini Roundabout

Mixed (middle order) Link Class 4

Single unit truck (SU) 25 13 – 25

Urban Compact

Mixed (middle order) Link Class 4

SU and BUS 30 25 – 30

Urban Single Lane

Mixed (higher order) Link Class 3

Semi–trailer (WB15) 35 30 – 40




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Urban Double Lane

Mixed (higher order) Link Class 3

Semi–trailer (WB15) 35 45 – 55

*The Red Book: Guidelines for Human Settlement Planning and Design, 2000, CSIR, Pretoria

Thus the radius for any traffic circle would increase from 30m to 40m.

The cross section required to facilitate the full scope of traffic the following has been taken into

consideration. Allowance has been made for:

- BRT

- Mixed traffic (private and public motorised transport)

- NMT (pedestrians as well as bicycles)

In order to provide adequate space to accommodate all discontinuous road elements it is necessary to

provide a strip of continuous area on either side of the road that can be used. We refer to this as the

multi-utility strip, or MU strip. This MU strip will be used in different places for different purposes.

The MU strip can also be used to provide adequate space for vehicles to pull-over. If such space is not

provided at frequent intervals, then vehicles will be forced to stop on the traffic lanes, thus reducing the

capacity of the road. The MU strip should not be used to provide parking areas. Parking areas should be

located at dedicated parking facilities separate from the roadway.

The MU strip has one additional advantage; it can adjust to the varying width of the road. Generally, a

well-design road is one where the continuous elements of the road maintain a constant width

irrespective of the varying road width, in order to avoid the associated capacity and safety issues created

by bottlenecks. The MU strip width can be adjusted to accommodate for such variations, such that the

widths of the other continuous elements of the road are not compromised. Within the MU strip the

facilitation of information signs as well as Bus stops is also possible.

Table 7-3: Road Design Elements

Element Width [meters]

Pedestrian Zone 3.0

Bicycle Zone 2.5

MU 3.0

Mixed traffic lane 3.4

BRT lane 3.7

Half width of the road 19

Total width of the road 38

BRT lanes would generally exist on highly travelled alignments and it is therefore considered that a

double mixed traffic lane will form part of the cross-section. Thus the required width to facilitate the

standard BRT corridor is in the order of 38m.




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Figure 7-1: BRT Layout

The following is an outline of the considerations for the design of a BRT station:

Figure 7-2: Consideration for a BRT Station

The width of the station (which is compensated by the reduction of the MU strip) should be 3 m. With

regard to the BRT system the stations should be able to accommodate at least one bus (24m) and thus

should have a minimum length of 26m, the length of 52m are recommended to allow for simultaneous

stop of two vehicles. The combination of several BRT routes to utilise a single station and dependant on

the scheduling, the stations length will be a multiple of the expected BRT bus lengths to utilise the station

at the same time.

In order for the BRT busses not to wait on each other during loading and offloading, the addition of an

express lane should also be considered where space permits.




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Figure 7-3: Priorisation considerations

In the above figure it should be noted that the passing bus has precedence over the bus on the inside

lane, yield sign provided to indicate this. The express lane speed is recommended to be limited to 30

km/h.

The provisions for U-turns displayed in the above figure are required in the BRT system as the crossing

of the line should be retained to a minimum. These U-turn areas have a two-fold provision that both

allows the crossing of NMT and enables traffic to cross the BRT line to gain access on the right.

With regard to intersections the following highlights the considerations to be considered when a minor

street joins a BRT line. Again it should be noted that right hand turns are not recommended thus reducing

the traffic flow across the BRT line. This consideration needs to be considered as it has a notable effect

on the traffic flow.




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Figure 7-4: Traffic Interaction Considerations (T-junction Design– Minor Street joins BRT)

In contrast the intersection of a BRT line with a major road is illustrated below. The implication and

integration of feeder bus services is also highlighted.

Figure 7-5: Traffic Interaction Considerations (Major Street joins BRT)

Furthermore a more complicated scenario develops when two BRT lines meet at a cross road.




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Figure 7-6: Example of Possible Traffic Interaction (Major Street – BRT Junction Design)

It is to be emphasised that right turns should not be permitted at the intersections. It is rather

recommended that traffic intending to turn right should proceed straight over the intersection, then

make a U-turn at the next traffic signals and returning to the intersection and make a left turn. Another

manoeuvre would be to turn left at the crossing, then make a U-turn at the next traffic and return and

proceed straight over the intersection. Such a scenario is applicable as shown in Figure 6-7: Bus network

2027 with BRT routes on Independence Ave. and Monte Christo Road.

In addition below a concept of a traffic circle with integrated BRT line is presented. It can be debated as

to allow right hand turns which in this scenario are not recommended.




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Figure 7-7: Traffic Interaction Considerations (Roundabout Design)

7.2.2 BRT pavement considerations

The design of the pavement structure has a significant influence on the life cycle cost of the roadway.

The general accepted design principles should be followed but it is clear that the pavement for the mixed

traffic would be different than that for the BRT lanes.

Within the MyCiti development in Cape Town, South Africa, it had been noted that the maintenance cost

of a concrete pavement structure for the BRT routes was more cost effective than a flexible pavement

structure. This is taken as still valid. The general pavement structure for the MyCiti is as depicted below:

Figure 7-8: General Pavement Structure




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Additional cost aspects why the concrete pavement was determined to be more cost effective were the

requirement for the colouring of the BRT lanes which with concrete required no maintenance whereas

when utilising a flexible pavement with asphalt it would require Tyre grip with Jasper Chips which require

a high level of maintenance and are very costly.

7.2.3 LRT design considerations

The rolling stock width for the LRT system has been set at 2.65m which correlates to the LRT systems in

use in Europe. The present DuWag R.T.E.1 car is therefore used to determine the guideway geometry.

Figure 7-9: Guideway Geometry LRT

The above figure shows a side of the road location for a 15 metre L.R.T. right of way which allows for

platforms on each side accessed from a walkway. Various types of landscaping are shown which are

replaceable with platforms as shown below. Figure 7-10: Types of Landscape adjacent to LRT

When considering the geometric requirements with regard to an LRT system the following design criteria

should be amended:

- Based on this a tangent structure clearance of 1550mm is recommended. The distance between

double tracks (from centre line to centre line) is set at 3100mm and where there are centre poles

3500mm.

- The manoeuvrable gradient is set at a maximum of 5.5%

- The turning radii, within a yard with no super-elevation a minimum radii of 25m is possible and at

running speed a minimum radii of 35m is prescribed but on the mainline track the radii should not

be less than 300m.

A continuous safety refuge of 600mm should be provided alongside the track.




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The general dimensions for a centre platform are outlined below.

Figure 7-11: General Dimension for a centre platform

For a side platform the following dimensions can be adopted.

Figure 7-12: General Dimension for a side platform

It is most economical to construct stations with 80 metre platforms to handle 3 car trains with provision

for expansion to handle longer trains as and when the additional capacity becomes necessary.

Platform exits, stairways and passageways should be sized so that the estimated average train load

entering the station over the peak 15 minute period can clear the platform within a four minute period.

When determining the required width of exits, a crush capacity of 80 passengers per minute per 1000

mm width of passageway, 65 passengers per minute per 1000 mm width of stairways and 100

passengers per minute for each 1200 mm escalator. These capacities are attainable only under

unidirectional flow conditions and should be considered as minimum.

Minimum floor to ceiling height should be 2750 mm with 3000 mm preferable to discourage damage by

vandals.

Escalators should be provided whenever stair height exceeds 4000 mm in the up direction and 7000 mm

in the down direction. They should be provided with stop devices for emergency situations and for

manual shutdown to prevent overcrowding of platforms in the case of service delay.” (General guidelines

for the design of Light Rail Transit Facilities in Edmonton, 1984, R.R. Clark)

The general recommended pavement structure for LRT operations is outlined below.




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Figure 7-13: Pavement Structure LRT Operations

The purpose of signals is to give advance information or to relay commands based on an interpretation

of conditions in order to increase safety. Signal protection is required in the following areas:

(a) Against rear-end collisions with stopped or slow-moving trains.

(b) Against conflicting movements at cross-overs and junctions.

(c) Against conflicting movements at highway crossings.

The designs described are the basis for preliminary cost estimates (capital, infrastructure maintenance,

systems management, land acquisition).




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8 Financial Analysis and Socio-Economic Impact

Approach

This chapter consists of two parts – covering financial and socio-economic impact for introduction of the

new system.

The financial section is prepared for all scenarios based on the results of chapters operation planning

and conceptual system design is presented in this chapter. The analysis considers both entire public

transport network of Windhoek and interdependencies between different public transport systems

(bus/BRT1/LRT/BRT2), where detailed financial evaluation of high-capacity transit system is presented.

The financial section covers the period from the start of project design until 2030 and includes

- Preliminary estimates of costs (capital, operational, infrastructure maintenance, systems

management, land acquisition) and financing plan (approx. 20% cost accuracy) for public transport

in Windhoek with focus on BRT/BRT1/LRT/BRT2 systems.

- Proposal for an appropriate fare structure under affordability and fare-box recovery considerations.

- Public transport revenue forecast (analysis of current and future revenue) generated in the

BRT/BRT1/LRT/BRT2 systems

- Assessment of financial viability, and sustainability and calculation the Net Present Value (NPV), as

well as cost recovery ration on operational costs.

- A sensitivity analysis is applied to the financial evaluations – on revenues and cost side.

A strong focus of the project evaluation should be on financial sustainability of the operation phase and

funding requirements for system investments at all stages of implementation.

The socio-economic section covers the cross-cutting issues associated with introduction of the new

system, including environmental impacts related to system installation and construction and expected

socio-economic effects on system introduction.

Documentation of the analysis parameters

Components of the Analysis

The financial analysis captures the components outlined in the table below:

Table 8-1: Components of the financial analysis

Revenue side Cost Side

- generated from fare and non-

fare references

- non-revenue side, mainly

generated from advertising

activities and selling of vehicles

not in use during the overall

implementation of the system

Capital

Expendi-

turs(CAPEX)

Investment and Capital Expenditures:

including:

Cost of the BRT routes

Cost of the stations and terminals (including

installations, equipment and facilities)

Crossings (including upgrade, and new construction, and

installation of the priorisation technologies)

Lights at adjustment areas, park and ride facilities

associated with the new system

Land acquisitions

Traffic Management Centre Costs and ticketing system

extension

Costs for infrastructure upgrade to BRT 2/LRT lines




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where applicable.

Operational

Expendi-

turs(Opex)

Operational Expenditures:

Labour (drivers, management, technicians )

Fuel and lubricants

Tear - wear, maintenance, repair costs

Maintenance of the stations

Maintenance of the stations at terminals

Mass transit data processing per year / ticketing system

It produces that amount of subsidy for each option, and scenario.

The level of fare-box recovery for the BRT lines is also calculated.

The present value of required investments is also assessed.

Assumptions the Analysis

For the revenue side the following assumptions are valid:

- The demand growth as modelled and forecasted is not affected by the changed mobility behaviour

- The average tariff between the zones is set at the level of NAD 9.00 (as assumed with the new zoning

policy, and based on the strategy of reducing cash payments in the system)

- The increase of the average tariff is set at the level of 2%

- The level of high capacity transit system use corresponds to the operation development model and

makes per phase:

Item Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

Passengers using BRT service of the Public

Transport (PuT) network in a corresponding

phase

(percentage of total travel)

0% 25% 47% 67%

- With the progress of the system and introduction of the enforcement mechanisms, that level of fare

evasion is assumed at 1% over the whole period of BRT implementation, the controls of tickets would

are assumed at the level of 50% success.

- The fine amount for dodgy travellers would make at least 10 times of the average tariff.

- The advertising revenues within the system are set in accordance with the pace of the system roll-

out as follows:

Item Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

Advertising revenues within the BRT system

as a percentage of the overall revenues

within BRT system

0% 2% 2% 3%

- The BRT system starts to bring revenues from the first year of BRT operation (100% of the Line T1)

in 2022.

- The Net Present Value (NPV) is calculated at the discount rate set at 10%, and is applied to

operational side only, since infrastructural and fleet/rolling stock acquisition rolling / investments

are considered under funding from public sector obligation sources.

- The calculations are prepared both with and without effect of the inflation, applicable for the mix

inflation for services and industrial goods needed to establish the system.

On the cost side




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- The infrastructure costs fall already at present, and are allocated in accordance to the system roll

out. This explains the negative cash flow on CAPEX side in the years 2017-2022.

- The unit costs for BRT and LRT system are derivatives from typical system costs of the same

parameters as recommended for Windhoek, adjusted to the Namibian price levels. The prices were

adjusted taken into consideration the available local reference prices related to cost components

(labour, machinery, taxation, etc.)

- The prices of imported goods (LRT rolling stock and BRT fleets) are included at current market level.

- The level of risks/other costs that may occur during implementation of the project is integrated into

the cost mode and is set at 10% for CAPEX and 5% for OPEX

- The pace of BRT line upgrade (construction) is phased in accordance to the operation plan

- The effect of inflation is not taken into account.

On forecasting risk sensitivity analysis side:

Sensitivity analysis is undertaken for the following model outputs:

- Total Subsidy

- NPV of OPEX

In addition to the variables defined in the Terms of Reference (ToR) – Traffic Demand – the sensitivity of

the following additional variable are tested for standard demand option:

- Increase of prices for Capital Expenditures

- Increase of prices for Operational Expenditures

- Increase of Ticket Price

The sensitivity analysis is presented at the end of this chapter.

Financial Analysis of Option 1 (BRT+LRT)

The following lines undergo pre-feasibility consideration under this option:

T 1 CBS – Independence – Soweto Market – Havana – Monte-Christo (Northern

Development Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable in north-western direction

T 2 CBS – Hosea-Kutako Drive – Northern Industrial Area – Monte-Christo-Road –

Goreangab




According to the demand development scenario – standard, lower, higher the system exhibits the

following parameters per phase.

8.3.1 Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (100%)

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present

-2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-2027

Phase 4

2028-2032

T1 - CBS – Independence – Soweto Market –

Havana – Monte Christo (Northern Development

Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable in north-

western direction

bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

(till 2032)

LRT

(from 2032)




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Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present

-2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-2027

Phase 4

2028-2032

T 2 CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Northern

Industrial Area – Monte Christo Road –

Goreangab

bus bus bus BRT1(2032)

T 3 T 3 CBS – Moses Garoeb – Otjomuise –

extendable in western direction


T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market bus bus BRT1(2027) BRT1

T 11 CBS – Independence - Northern Industrial

Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market

bus bus BRT1(2027) BRT1

The construction is assumed in the following pace:

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

Length

of the

route

(m)

2017 Level of

completio

n

2018-22 Level of

completion

2023-

2027

Level of

completio

n

2028-

2032

Level of

complet

ion

Line

T1:

11600 2320 20% 9280 100% 0 100% 0 100% 11600

Line

T2:

11400 0 0% 0 0% 6840 60% 4560 100% 11400

Line

T4:

7300 0 0% 3650 50% 3650 100% 0 100% 7300

Line

T11:

2600 0 0% 1560 60% 1040 100% 0 100% 2600

Line

T3:

7200 0 0% 0 0% 4320 60% 2880 100% 7200

Total: 40100 2320 14490 15850 7440 40100

In case of the implementation of the option 1, assuming the standard demand scenario the total amount

of public sector obligations would make NAD 3.148 Million from 2017 to 2032. The phase 1 returns no

records revenue, as only BRT system generated revenues are taken into account to avoid double

counting of revenues of the bus network from 2016-2022.

This amount of subsidy is allocated for BRT and LRT upgrade only, and is additional to the subsidy

reported under the first implementation phase for bus network establishment (NAD 783 M), and costs

of the terminal CBS (NAD 50 M) and new bus depots (NAD 200M).

The subsidy is distributed along the phase in the following manner:




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Figure 8-1: Subsidy Allocation Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (NAD Million)

The higher levels of subsidy in the last phase of project from 2028-2032 are associated with conversion

of the line 1 into the LRT operation, acquisition of the rolling stock and construction of the LRT depot.

The results of the financial indicators for this option and scenario are presented in the table below.

Table 8-2: Financial Results of Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT

The OPEX NPV discounted at the level of 10% makes NAD 55 Million.

Category Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 TOTAL 2017-2032 %

2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 57$ 674$ 1.689$ 2.419$ 90%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 34$ 43$ 80$ 3%

Adversti s ing -$ 1$ 14$ 51$ 66$ 2%

Sel l ing BRT buses -$ -$ -$ 136$ 136$ 5%

Tota l -$ 61$ 722$ 1.918$ 2.701$ 100%

Capex: Tota l Infrastructure 263$ 357$ 260$ 798$ 1.678$

Capex: Fleet Procurement -$ 88$ 214$ 1.129$ 1.432$

Ri sk on Ca pex 26$ 45$ 47$ 193$ 311$

Tota l Costs: CAPEX 289$ 490$ 522$ 2.120$ 3.421$

Opex Costs -$ 60$ 716$ 1.537$ 2.313$

Ri sks of Opex -$ 3$ 36$ 77$ 116$

Tota l Costs: OPEX -$ 63$ 752$ 1.614$ 2.429$

Tota l costs : CAPEX + OPEX 289$ 552$ 1.274$ 3.734$ 5.849$

Tota l amount of subs idy - CAPEX 289$ 490$ 522$ 2.120$ 3.421$

Tota l amount of subs idy - CAPEX+OPEX 289$ 492$ 553$ 1.815$ 3.148$

Revenues BRT -$ 61$ 722$ 1.918$ 2.701$

Operation cost -$ 63$ 752$ 1.614$ 2.429$

Operation cost coverage R-Opex -$ -2 $ -31 $ 305$ 272$

Revenue / Cost Ratio 0,97 0,96 1,19 1,11

BRT Revenue - km 0 983.000 12.338.500 27.315.000 40.636.500

Revenue / Km 62$ 58$ 70$ 66$

Operation Cost / km 64$ 61$ 59$ 60$




Draft Final Report

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93

8.3.2 Lower Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (-10%)

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present -

2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-

2027

Phase 4

2028-2032




western direction

bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1



Goreangab



extendable in western direction bus bus bus BRT1(2032)

T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market bus bus bus BRT1(2032)


Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market bus bus bus BRT1(2032)



Length of

the Lines

2017 Level of

completion

2018-22 Level of

completion

2023-

2027

Level of

completion

2028-

2032

Level of

completion

Line T1: 11600 2320 20% 9280 100% 0 100% 0 100% 11600

Line T2: 11400 0 0% 0 0% 6840 60% 4560 100% 11400

Line T4: 7300 0 0% 2920 40% 2628 60% 1752 100% 7300

Line

T11:

2600 0 0% 1300 50% 780 60% 520 100% 2600

Line T3: 7200 0 0% 0 0% 4320 60% 2880 100% 7200

Total 40100 2320 13500 14568 9712 40100

In case of the implementation of the option 1, assuming the lower (-10%) demand scenario the total

amount of public sector obligations would make NAD 1.804 Million from 2017 to 2032. The phase 1

returns no records revenue, as only BRT system generated revenues are taken into account to avoid

double counting of revenues of the bus network from 2016-2022.








Draft Final Report

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94

Figure 8-2: Subsidy Allocation Low Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (NAD Million)

The higher levels of subsidy in the third phase of project from 2023-2027 are associated with fact that

BRT 1 infrastructure needs to be prepared for the phase 4, acquisition of the fleet and higher levels

infrastructural investments would be required during this period to enable full conversion of the said

lines to BRT1 in as of 2028.

Since under this demand development scenario, no LRT operation is justified as of the year 2032, the

investment costs in the last phase are just those associated to the completion of the last BRT1 lines.


Table 8-3: Financial Results of Low Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT

The OPEX NPV discounted at the level of 10% makes NAD -52 Million.

The same financial results are returned for the BRT1-BRT2 option of the low demand scenario, as BRT2

upgrade is also not justified for this development option.


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 51$ 606$ 1.520$ 2.177$ 94%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 31$ 38$ 72$ 3%

Adversti s ing -$ 1$ 12$ 46$ 59$ 3%

Sel l ing BRT buses -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0%

Total -$ 55$ 649$ 1.604$ 2.308$ 100%


Capex: Fleet Procurement -$ 88$ 214$ 233$ 536$

Ri sk on Capex 26$ 43$ 45$ 39$ 154$

Total Costs : CAPEX 289$ 472$ 499$ 430$ 1.689$

Opex Costs -$ 59$ 713$ 1.535$ 2.307$

Ri sks of Opex -$ 3$ 36$ 77$ 115$

Total Costs : OPEX -$ 62$ 749$ 1.612$ 2.423$

Total costs : CAPEX + OPEX 289$ 534$ 1.248$ 2.041$ 4.112$

Total amount of subs idy - CAPEX 289$ 472$ 499$ 430$ 1.689$

Total amount of subs idy - CAPEX+OPEX 289$ 479$ 598$ 437$ 1.804$

Revenues BRT -$ 55$ 649$ 1.604$ 2.308$

Operation cost -$ 62$ 749$ 1.612$ 2.423$

Operation cost coverage R-Opex -$ -8 $ -99 $ -8 $ -115 $

Revenue / Cost Ratio 0,88 0,87 1,00 0,95

BRT Revenue - km 0 983.000 12.338.500 27.315.000 40.636.500

Revenue / Km 56$ 53$ 59$ 57$





Draft Final Report

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95

8.3.3 Higher Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (+10%)

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present -

2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-

2027

Phase 4

2028-2032




western direction

bus BRT 1

(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

(till 2032)

LRT

(from

2032)



Goreangab

bus bus BRT 1

(2027)

BRT1


extendable in western direction bus BRT 1

(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1


Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1



Length of

the Lines

2017 Level of

completi

on

2018-22 Level

of

comple

tion

2023-

2027

Level of

completion

2028-

2032

Level

of

comple

tion

Line T1: 11600 m 2320 20% 9280 100% 0 100% 0 100% 11600

Line T2: 11400 m 0 0% 0 0% 6840 60% 4560 100% 11400

Line T4: 7300 m 730 10% 3942 60% 2628 100% 0 100% 7300

Line

T11:

2600 m 0 0% 1560 60% 1040 100% 0 100% 2600

Line T3: 7200 m 0 0% 4320 60% 2880 100% 0 100% 7200

Total 40100 m 3050 19102 13388 4560 40100












Draft Final Report

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96

Figure 8-3: Subsidy Allocation High Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (NAD Million)

The higher levels of subsidy in the second phase of project from 2018-2012 are associated with

preparation of the BRT1 infrastructure for launching of the BRT lines in 2027. In the last phase the subsidy

is targeting conversion of the line 1 into the LRT operation, acquisition of the rolling stock and

construction of the LRT depot.


Table 8-4: Financial Results of High Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT

The OPEX NPV discounted at the level of 10% makes NAD 129 Million.

Financial Analysis of Option 2 (BRT+BRT2)

The following lines undergo pre-feasibility consideration under this option:

T 1 CBS – Independence – Soweto Market – Havana – Monte Christo (Northern

Development Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable in north-western direction


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 62$ 741$ 1.858$ 2.661$ 90%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 38$ 47$ 88$ 3%

Advers ti s i ng -$ 1$ 15$ 56$ 72$ 2%

Sel l i ng BRT buses -$ -$ -$ 136$ 136$ 5%

Tota l -$ 67$ 794$ 2.097$ 2.957$ 100%


Capex: Fleet Procurement -$ 88$ 214$ 1.129$ 1.432$

Ri sk on Capex 27$ 52$ 43$ 188$ 311$

Tota l Costs : CAPEX 302$ 572$ 478$ 2.068$ 3.421$

Opex Costs -$ 62$ 724$ 1.539$ 2.324$

Ri sks of Opex -$ 3$ 36$ 77$ 116$

Tota l Costs : OPEX -$ 65$ 760$ 1.616$ 2.440$


Tota l amount of s ubs idy - CAPEX 302$ 572$ 478$ 2.068$ 3.421$

Tota l amount of s ubs idy - CAPEX + OPEX 302$ 570$ 444$ 1.587$ 2.904$

Revenues BRT -$ 67$ 794$ 2.097$ 2.957$

Operation cos t -$ 65$ 760$ 1.616$ 2.440$

Operation cos t coverage R-Opex -$ 2$ 34$ 481$ 517$

Revenue / Cost Rati o 1,03 1,04 1,30 1,21

BRT Revenue - km 0 983.000 12.338.500 27.315.000 40.636.500

Revenue / Km 68$ 64$ 77$ 73$





Draft Final Report

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97

T 2 CBS – Hosea Kutako Drive – Northern Industrial Area – Monte Christo Road –

Goreangab




According to the demand development scenario – standard, lower, higher the system exhibits the

following parameters per phase. The only difference to the Option 1 is that the line 1 is converted to

BRT 2 standards – using segregated lane, and requiring heavy infrastructural rearrangements for traffic

and pedestrians at crossings along the line 1.

8.4.1 Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2 (100%)

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present

-2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-2027

Phase 4

2028-2032


Havana – Monte Christo (Northern

Development Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable

in north-western direction

bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

(till 2032)

BRT2

(from

2032)



Goreangab






Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market bus bus BRT1(2027) BRT1



Length

of the

route

(m)

2017 Level of

completio

n

2018-22 Level of

completion

2023-

2027

Level of

completio

n

2028-

2032

Level of

complet

ion

Line

T1:

11600 2320 20% 9280 100% 0 100% 0 100% 11600

Line

T2:

11400 0 0% 0 0% 6840 60% 4560 100% 11400

Line

T4:

7300 0 0% 3650 50% 3650 100% 0 100% 7300

Line

T11:

2600 0 0% 1560 60% 1040 100% 0 100% 2600

Line

T3:

7200 0 0% 0 0% 4320 60% 2880 100% 7200

Total: 40100 2320 14490 15850 7440 40100




Draft Final Report

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98








The subsidy is distributed along the phase in the following manner as illustrated at the Figure 8-4 (A).

The largest share of costs occurs in last phase, as a consequence of preparation of upgrade from BRT 1

to BRT 2 for the line 1. For the reasons of comparison, the subsidy equivalent of the Option 1 under

standard demand scenario is presented in the Figure 8-4 (B). The costs of construction of BRT2 are higher

as infrastructural upgrade requires intensive construction of flyover, tunnels and crossing upgrades.

Figure 8-4: Subsidy of Option 2 BRT1-BRT2

(A) (B)

The summary of financial parameters is presented in the table below.

Table 8-5: Financial Results of Standard Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2




Draft Final Report

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99

The NPV on OPEX makes NAD 25 Million discounted at the level of 10%.

8.4.2 Lower Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2 (-10%)

This scenario follows the upgrade pattern as indicated below. The demand does not justify the upgrade

to LRT or BRT2. The financial indicator parameters are the same as for Option 1 – BRT-LRT scenario for

the low demand.

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present -

2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-

2027

Phase 4

2028-2032




western direction

bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1



Goreangab


T 3 CBS – Moses Garoeb – Otjomuise – extendable

in western direction bus bus bus BRT1(2032)

T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market bus bus bus BRT1(2032)


Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market bus bus bus BRT1(2032)


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 57$ 674$ 1.689$ 2.419$ 94%

Fine Col lecti on -$ 3$ 34$ 43$ 80$ 3%

Adversti s ing -$ 1$ 14$ 51$ 66$ 3%

Sel l i ng BRT bus es -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0%

Tota l -$ 61$ 722$ 1.782$ 2.565$ 100%

Capex: Tota l Infras tructure 263$ 357$ 260$ 2.038$ 2.918$


Ri s k on Capex 26$ 45$ 47$ 227$ 345$


Opex Cos ts -$ 60$ 716$ 1.537$ 2.313$

Ri s ks of Opex -$ 3$ 36$ 77$ 116$

Tota l Costs : OPEX -$ 63$ 752$ 1.614$ 2.429$

Tota l cos ts : CAPEX + OPEX 289$ 552$ 1.274$ 4.112$ 6.227$

Tota l amount of s ubs i dy - CAPEX 289$ 490$ 522$ 2.498$ 3.799$

Tota l amount of s ubs i dy - CAPEX+OPEX 289$ 492$ 553$ 2.329$ 3.663$

Revenues BRT -$ 61$ 722$ 1.782$ 2.565$

Operation cost -$ 63$ 752$ 1.614$ 2.429$

Operation cost coverage R-Opex -$ -2 $ -31 $ 169$ 136$

OPEX: Revenue / Cost Ratio 0,97 0,96 1,10 1,06

BRT Revenue - km 0 983.000 12.338.500 27.315.000 40.636.500

Revenue / Km (NAD) 62$ 58$ 65$ 63$

Operation Cos t / km (NAD) 64$ 61$ 59$ 60$




Draft Final Report

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100



Length of

the Lines

2017 Level of

completion

2018-22 Level of

completion

2023-

2027

Level of

completion

2028-

2032

Level of

completion

Line T1: 11600 2320 20% 9280 100% 0 100% 0 100% 11600

Line T2: 11400 0 0% 0 0% 6840 60% 4560 100% 11400

Line T4: 7300 0 0% 2920 40% 2628 60% 1752 100% 7300

Line

T11:

2600 0 0% 1300 50% 780 60% 520 100% 2600

Line T3: 7200 0 0% 0 0% 4320 60% 2880 100% 7200

Total 40100 2320 13500 14568 9712 40100

8.4.3 Higher Demand Scenario BRT1-LRT (+10%)

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present -

2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-

2027

Phase 4

2028-2032




western direction

bus BRT 1

(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

(till 2032)

BRT2

(from

2032)



Goreangab

bus bus BRT 1

(2027)

BRT1


extendable in western direction bus BRT 1

(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

T 4 CBS – Florence Nightingale – Soweto Market bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1


Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market bus BRT

1(2022)

BRT1 BRT1



Length of

the Lines

2017 Level of

completi

on

2018-22 Level

of

comple

tion

2023-

2027

Level of

completion

2028-

2032

Level

of

comple

tion

Line T1: 11600 m 2320 20% 9280 100% 0 100% 0 100% 11600

Line T2: 11400 m 0 0% 0 0% 6840 60% 4560 100% 11400

Line T4: 7300 m 730 10% 3942 60% 2628 100% 0 100% 7300

Line

T11:

2600 m 0 0% 1560 60% 1040 100% 0 100% 2600




Draft Final Report

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101

Line T3: 7200 m 0 0% 4320 60% 2880 100% 0 100% 7200

Total 40100 m 3050 19102 13388 4560 40100

In case of the implementation of the option 2, assuming the high demand scenario the total amount of

public sector obligations would make NAD 3.418 Million from 2017 to 2032. The phase 1 returns no






The subsidy is distributed along the phases in the following manner as illustrated at the Figure 8-5 (A).

The largest share of costs occurs in last phase, as a consequence of preparation of upgrade from BRT 1

to BRT 2 for the line 1. For the reasons of comparison, the subsidy equivalent of the Option 1 under high

demand scenario is presented in the Figure 8-5 (B). The construction costs of BRT2 are higher as

infrastructural upgrade required intensive construction of flyover, tunnels and crossing upgrades.

Figure 8-5: Subsidy of Option 2 BRT1-BRT2

(A) B)

The summary of financial parameters is presented in the table below.




Draft Final Report

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102

Table 8-6: Financial Results of High Demand Scenario BRT1-BRT2

The NPV on OPEX makes NAD 99 Million discounted at the level of 10%.

8.4.4 Comparison of Subsidy between the Options

The following table presents the subsidy values for Option 1 and 2 following various demand

development scenarios.

Table 8-7: Subsidy Options for BRT1 – LRT and BRT1-BRT2

Given that the LRT system from 2032 would serve the purposes of all considered demand scenarios, as

the BRT2, and is more efficient in terms of allocation of funds, it is recommended to pursue the option

1 – BRT – LRT system upgrade for Windhoek.

8.4.5 Risk Sensitivity Analysis

The section below demonstrates the results of sensitivity analysis for level of subsidy, and NPV of the

OPEX cash flow for standard demand development scenarios for the option 1 and 2. This is done by

means of tornado plot that displays the result of single variable sensitivity analysis one at a time.


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 62$ 741$ 1.858$ 2.661$ 94%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 38$ 47$ 88$ 3%

Adversti s i ng -$ 1$ 15$ 56$ 72$ 3%

Sel l ing BRT bus es -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0%

Tota l -$ 67$ 794$ 1.961$ 2.821$ 100%

Capex: Tota l Infras tructure 275$ 432$ 220$ 1.991$ 2.918$


Ri sk on Capex 27$ 52$ 43$ 222$ 345$


Opex Costs -$ 62$ 724$ 1.539$ 2.324$

Ri sks of Opex -$ 3$ 36$ 77$ 116$

Tota l Costs : OPEX -$ 65$ 760$ 1.616$ 2.440$


Tota l amount of subs idy - CAPEX 302$ 572$ 478$ 2.446$ 3.799$

Tota l amount of subs idy - CAPEX+OPEX 302$ 570$ 444$ 2.101$ 3.418$

Revenues BRT -$ 67$ 794$ 1.961$ 2.821$

Operati on cost -$ 65$ 760$ 1.616$ 2.440$

Operati on cost coverage R-Opex -$ 2$ 34$ 345$ 381$

Revenue / Cos t Ratio 1,03 1,04 1,21 1,16

BRT Revenue - km 0 983.000 12.338.500 27.315.000 40.636.500

Revenue / Km 68$ 64$ 72$ 69$

Operati on Cost / km 66$ 62$ 59$ 60$

Bus System CBS Bus Depots

Base 783 50 200 3.148 4.181 55

Low Demand 783 50 200 1.804 2.837 -52

High Demand 783 50 200 2.904 3.937 129

Option 2 Scenario

BRT - BRT2

Related Subsidy

2017-2032 Total Subsidy

OPEX NPV

[NAD

Million ]

Base 783 50 200 3.663 4.696 25

Low Demand 783 50 200 1.804 2.837 -52

High Demand 783 50 200 3.418 4.451 99BRT1-BRT2

BRT - LRT

Related Subsidy

2017-2032 [NAD

Million ]

Total Subsidy

[NAD Million ]

OPEX NPV

[NAD

Million ]

Initial Subsidy Bus Network 2017-2022

[NAD Million ]

Initial Subsidy Bus Network 2017-2022

[NAD Million ]

Option 1 Scenario

BRT1-LRT




Draft Final Report

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103

Figure 8-6: Sensitivity analysis – Subsidy Level Option 1

Figure 8-7: Sensitivity analysis – Subsidy Level Option 2

The effect of fluctuation of CAPEX costs, fare level and OPEX costs are checked for the level of subsidy.

The graph shows that a 5% increase in CAPEX costs may cause an increase in level of by NAD 170-200m;

such attributes are typical for large scale infrastructure projects. The subsidy of BRT – BRT2 option is

more cost sensitive and risky in term of uncertainties during the implementation of the project.

Another variable that has been check is level of fare, and increase of fare level by 5% results in changes

of subsidy at the range of up to NAD 120 M in the overall period of the pre-feasibility study. The

fluctuation in operation cost is also an important factor to monitor the level of subsidy that returns NAD

115 changes in the subsidy level.

For the NPV occurring under operation part of the project in addition to transport demand, the influence

of the following variables was checked:

- Level of Fare

- Increase in operation costs

- Other assumed discounting rate

The graphs below represent the results of the NPV sensitivity for both options under standard demand

development scenarios.




Draft Final Report

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104

Figure 8-8 Sensitivity analysis – NPV on Operational Activity – Option 1

Figure 8-9 Sensitivity analysis – NPV on Operational Activity – Option 2

The option 1 is more attractive in terms of NPV value and is less sensitive to changes in the operational

costs.

The analysis on financial level, similar to operation level recommendations, favours considering option

1 for future system extension in Windhoek.

8.4.6 Adjustment to inflation

The calculations above did not directly considered the effect of the inflation, as they were prepared in

current prices. The upper market prices were taken into account to allow for certain fluctuation of

initially assumed cost at the time of construction project start. Also, to allow for price increase the

calculation included a risk factor of 10% percent on overall increase of capital costs per phase, and 5%

on the overall increase of the operation costs per phase. These adjustment factors generally cover

possible inflation effects. Also the sensitivity analysis accounted for additional increase of costs (+5%

on CAPEX and OPEX) and tested the effects of the inflation.

In this section, the Consultant has calculated the final effect of the inflation. Based on National Statistics

Agency information annual inflation for consumer goods was 6.9%, as compared to that for services

which stood at 3.0% in 2014. The inflation rate for industrial goods is not assessed for Namibia. The

global practice shows that non-oil sector industrial goods inflation is lower than consumer good inflation

(for instance in the EU-28 industrial goods inflation as announced by EUROSTAT was 0.4% in 2014, the

consumer goods inflation was 0.6%).




Draft Final Report

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105

Also, the some system components (as for instance, vehicles) would be likely purchased outside

Namibia, in countries (e.g. EU or the South Africa), which demonstrate lower inflation rates.

Bearing the above in mind, the Consultant has assumed an annual inflation level for the composition of

industrial goods and services needed for BRT/LRT system at the level of 3.5%. The system financial

parameters adjusted to inflation are calculated in the table below using the following formula:

FV=PV*(1+IR)PD where:

FV = future value of costs, revenues, or subsidy

PV = present value of costs, revenues, or subsidy

IR = inflation rate, expressed as a decimal fraction

PD = project duration in years.

The calculations for final adjustment to inflation are presented in the table below:

For the present pre-feasibility study the following parameters apply:

PV – calculated values for system costs, revenues and subsidy between two options

IR = 3.5% per annum for the mix of services and industrial goods procured inside and outside Namibia

PD = 17 years assuming project start in 2015 and project end in 2032.

Table 8-8: Final Adjustment to Inflation

Socio-Economic Analysis

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a preliminary assessment of important environmental issues

and social/economic effects related to construction of the five BRT1/LRT/BRT2 lines.

8.5.1 Environmental Aspects

This chapter is not an Environmental Impact Report or Statement prepared in accordance with Namibian

legislation. The depth of the analysis and discussion of potential mitigation if any is limited by the

conceptual engineering provided at the level of this pre-feasibility study. Detailed environmental

analysis would be conducted when more detailed engineering is completed at the feasibility study stage.

Recommendations for such analysis are outlined.

Revenue Cost Subsidy Revenue Cost Subsidy

Low Demand 2.308,00 NAD 4.112,00 NAD 1.804,00 NAD Low Demand 4.142,11 NAD 7.379,71 NAD 3.237,59 NAD

Regular Demand 2.701,00 NAD 5.849,00 NAD 3.148,00 NAD Regular Demand 4.847,42 NAD 10.497,06 NAD 5.649,64 NAD

High Demand 2.959,00 NAD 5.861,00 NAD 2.904,00 NAD High Demand 5.310,44 NAD 10.518,59 NAD 5.211,74 NAD

Revenue Cost Subsidy Revenue Cost Subsidy

Low Demand* 2.308,00 NAD 4.112,00 NAD 1.804,00 NAD Low Demand* 4.142,11 NAD 7.379,71 NAD 3.237,59 NAD

Regular Demand 2.565,00 NAD 6.227,00 NAD 3.663,00 NAD Regular Demand 4.603,34 NAD 11.175,44 NAD 6.573,90 NAD

High Demand 2.821,00 NAD 6.239,00 NAD 3.418,00 NAD High Demand 5.062,78 NAD 11.196,98 NAD 6.134,20 NAD

* same as Option 1 Low Demand

All figures in NAD M

BRT 1 - LRT (Option 1)

BRT 1 - BRT 2 (Option 2)

Adjusted to inflation of In current prices with adjustment factors

In current prices with adjustment factors Adjusted to inflation of

BRT 1 - LRT (Option 1)

BRT 1 - BRT 2 (Option 2)




Draft Final Report

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106

Land Use/Right of Way

The operational improvements related to BRT1 vehicle would be completed within the existing right-of-

way of the roads. The project include restriping of existing lanes; extensions of existing lanes within

existing right-of-way; land-acquisition along Monte Cristo Road (approx. 10 km x 10 m), constructing

restrictive fences to separate the BRT lanes from rest of the road, prohibition of parking on approach

streets; and construction of new stations and park and ride lots along the route, but not at intersections.

There would be no anticipated land use or right-of-way impacts related to these operational

improvements, with the exception of construction of the new park and ride lots planned near new

interchange stations, and acquisition of land for LRT depot. The exact location for the planned park and

ride lots, LRT depot are to be identified at the detailed feasibility study level, and right-of-way and land

use impacts to be assessed.

In case of BRT 1/LRT technology, the system does not include construction of the flyover lanes, as the

BRT will be accommodated on the existing road network mainly.

The BRT line 1 would require acquisition of additional land to support the widening of the road along

Monte Cristo Road. This does not create visual and land use impacts on the adjacent territories. No takes

of adjacent private property would be required or residences affected. It appears that most of the

existing structures would not be directly impacted.

In case of the BRT2 technology, there would be a need to introduced flyover / tunnel crossings along the

route of the Line 1. These options would have higher costs on securing the right of the way.

Biology

There would be only a minor potential for biological issues or concerns to be raised for all of the

operational improvements since most of the improvements would be located within existing urban right-

of-way with low habitat value and little or no potential for occurrence of special-status species or

wetlands. As noted above, the development along BRT routs could affect biological resources of the

Gammans River during the construction phase. Mitigation measures would be needed in the vicinity of

the river bed especially with construction waste disposal measures.

Geology

The geological and seismic impacts associated with construction of stations and elevated structures for

traffic/pedestrian interaction with BRT2 need to be addressed in detail at the feasibility study level by

ensuring that the improvements are designed considering the seismic environment in Windhoek. Any

improvements would need to conform to latest earthquake design standards. The stations are of open

design, and all safety standards regarding the seismic situation will be assured.

Water Quality/ Disposal

The adverse impacts on water quality related to construction activities are limited. A general discussion

about water quality impacts and typical mitigation would apply to all of the routes at the full feasibility

level phase.

The following general discussion about water quality impacts and typical mitigation would apply to

system construction measures, where the highest impact is expected for BRT2 in case of selection of this

option. Typical construction impacts include, but are not limited to: excavations for foundations,

resulting in possible groundwater contamination; potential surface water impacts dewatering

operations where applicable, concrete placement; management and application of chemical products;

the potential for accidental spills from construction equipment and materials; and potential discharges

of waste material.

Namibian environmental legislation will apply during preparation of the full feasibility study and the

construction phase. The potential pollutant sources will be identified that may affect the quality of the




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107

discharges of water associated with the construction activities of the project. In addition, it would need

to identify, construct, and implement water pollution control measures to reduce pollutants in water

discharges from the construction site during and after construction.

The objectives of such measures are to minimize the degradation of off-site receiving waters to the

maximum extent allowed by Namibian standards for the construction industry, and to reduce the mass

loading of chemicals and suspended solids to the downstream drainage systems and possible receiving

water bodies.

To control and abate the discharge of pollutants into receiving waters the following structural devices,

and non-structural devices would be needed, such as good housekeeping and construction related waste

management, including:

- Spill Prevention and Control;

- Solid Waste Management;

- Hazardous Waste Management;

- Concrete Waste Management;

- Sanitary/Septic Waste Management;

- Vehicle and Equipment Maintenance;

- Illicit Discharge/Illegal Dumping Prevention; and

- Liquid Waste Management.

The excavated soils from station foundations should be reused. It is possible that the excavated materials

could be recycled and used as aggregate, used as borrow material to construct needed fills, trucked to a

site that needs fill.

Noise and Vibration

The BRT system in operation would reduce noise and vibration, as it will take the private vehicles of the

road. At the construction phase, the associated activities could generate noise and vibration impacts to

adjacent land uses. However, as noted above, most of the measures would occur within existing rights-

of-way. The proposed improvements that would result in the most significant noise or vibration impacts

include construction of the stations, and the widening of the Monte Cristo road.

Temporary noise will affect the construction side, especially at stations. The following construction

equipment noise levels in A-weighted decibels (dBA) are to expect during the construction side.

Table 8-9: Noise Level Construction Equipment

Construction Equipment Noise Source Typical Noise Level (dBA)

(distance from source)

15 m 30 m 120 m

Pneumatic tools 85 79 67

Surface sawing/jackhammer 70-95 64-89 52-77

Dump truck 88 82 70

Concrete mixer (truck) 85 79 67

Scraper 88 82 70

Bulldozer 87 81 69

Paver 89 83 71




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Pile driver 90-105 84-99 72-87

Backhoe 85 79 67

Generator 76 70 58

Portable air compressor 81 75 63

Air Quality

As with all BRT construction measures, emissions of ozone forming pollutants will continue to decline

over the next twenty years due to cleaner vehicles in the fleet.

The following discussion of air quality impacts would apply for construction of station where freeway

construction or other heavy construction activities would occur in close proximity to existing land uses.

Localized air emissions would be consequently generated by construction equipment at the stations

along the length of BRT/LRT lines. Exhaust from trucks and other heavy construction equipment would

contain hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter. Windblown dust from

grading, excavation, and hauling activities could be extensive, even with typical mitigation such as daily

or even hourly watering of exposed areas. The nearest residences to the construction along would

experience short-term dust levels that will need to be mitigated.

Measures to reduce emissions during construction include the following:

- Watering exposed soil surfaces;

- Covering trucks transporting dust-producing material leaving or entering a construction site;

- Reducing construction vehicle travel speeds on unpaved surfaces;

- Maintaining equipment per manufacturers' specifications; and

- Conforming to all air pollution rules, regulations, ordinances, and statutes.

Based on the requirement that these measures are included in all contract specifications, no further

mitigation has been proposed for a construction.

The BRT service which reduces vehicle miles of travel compared to the baseline, and would have a

positive impact. The change in reactive organic gases (ROG), Nitrogen oxides (NOx), and PM10 emissions

will be significant. This needs to be elaborated and assessed at the detailed feasibility study level of

planning.

Visual

Visual impacts of public transport system appearance would be of positive manner, in case no BRT2 is

constructed. The construction of the BRT2 system would require changes along the line1 route in terms

of construction of flyovers and underground paths, where applicable. Visual impacts during construction

stage could occur to adjacent residences along the routes. Views experienced by residents and

businesses will majorly not be affected.

8.5.2 Socio-Economic Effects

High-quality public transport systems affect the quality of life, productivity, health, and safety of people

living in cities. Below the major impact of the introduction of the BRT 1/ LRT / BRT 2 services in Windhoek

are discussed.

Economic Development

Construction of the BRT lines, high occupancy vehicle, will have beneficial economic development

impacts to the Windhoek as enabling mobility of the citizens, and reducing congestion during peak

periods in some areas.




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Equity

The BRT lines comply with all equity target indicators as outlines in the SUTMP.

In general, low-income communities will enjoy significant improvements in terms of their travel

conditions. The travel time of the communities will significantly decrease, contributing to substantial

increase in the amount of time spent for productive activities contributing to GDP growth or time spent

in families, instead of in bus systems.

The accessibility of the stations will increase; the stations are optimally located following walking patters

of the Windhoek population. Changes in transit travel times to job centres and education, and

accessibility to jobs from communities would also increase.

The most significant benefit is a large improvement in access to jobs by transit from the North-Western

areas of town. For example, the number of jobs accessible by a transit trip within 30 minutes from

Katutura would increase to more than 50% in comparison to baseline conditions.

Gender

Everyone should have the right to get advantages from public transit on equal grounds. Men and women

benefit from a safe and reliable public transport. Neither on the way to or from work or home a bus

shelter and the bus system as a whole should be a space for fear or anxiety.

Recent sociological gender studies suggest that around the globe women ride public transport systems

much more often than typical numbers may suggest. The regular transit surveys often obscure the

number of trips caregivers (particularly mothers) take. These serial trips, women make more often than

men, as recent time-use surveys have found that women spend much more time than men do on tasks

related to child care each day. This entails child to soccer practice, running household errands, etc.

The public transport system in Windhoek will also support this mobility of "care". Its improved facilities

to accommodate these users — replacing stairs with ramps, widening aisles or gates to aid women with

strollers and bags.

Safer and securer system will contribute to mobility of children and elderly. Regular schedules that are

assured by these measures will contribute to better inclusion of vulnerable gender groups into the

society.

It is recommended to conduct "gender audit" to evaluate the ability of the new system to meet the

transport needs of female riders.

Poverty reduction

Transport affects Windhoek’s resident’s daily lives in different ways, for instance in getting to and from

work or being able to access essential services such as health, education, recreation in all areas of the

City and for all parts of the population.

Transport also affects private sector opportunities and the efficiency of the transport system can back-

up or constrain business. While the CoW operates on a smaller scale compared to most other cities in

the world, the present trends observed are comparable: reduced accessibility and thus social isolation

and exclusion caused by inadequate mobility of the urban poor, ever increasing traffic congestion,

unacceptable high rate of traffic accidents, high consumer costs, energy dependence and pollution. 87%

low income earners, who cannot afford own cars; 52% of those cannot afford public transport at all; on

average, low-income earners spend 24% on mobility. The non-motorised traffic consists above all by

walking (more than 97%, while cycling is almost negligible.

The new network and fare structure will considerably improve the urban mobility of the low-income

families. The introduction of the new system in 2016 will have a very pro-poor oriented positive social

impact. The estimated savings of the households of concern would make in 2016 N$ 70 million per

annum (Annex 3)




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110

Health

Health and social well-being are considered as fundamental pre-requisites to, as well as beneficiaries of

socio-economic development. The effect on health will be positive, mainly due to reduced exposure to

air pollutants. Cleaner vehicle technologies and fuels lower concentration of ambient air pollution

citywide would be observed due to introduction of the rapid transit technology. This effect applies not

only to the users of the system but on the society as a whole.

Reducing emissions of local air pollutants the public transport system would eliminate the sick leave

days of the population across Windhoek eliminate new causes of chronic respiratory tract deceases.

The system will have a positive effect on HIV/AIDS prevention and awareness. The terminal facilities and

vehicles may be used for dissemination of HIV/AIDS awareness messages and information, HIV/AIDs

prevention campaigns. The measures are complementary to the main project of development of the

sustainable urban transport in Namibia, and will indirectly contribute to HIV/AIDs prevention

mainstream in other areas. The availability of mobility to Katutura Hospital will also increase HIV/AIDs

awareness.

Higher mobility for people and better accessibility, reduction of travel time of people. Reduction of traffic

congestion within the CBD will also be of positive impact on population health.

The passengers with limited mobility will be targeted by the new system that will provide a barrier free-

access to public transport service.

Security

By providing well-lit routes and stations, security cameras within the system, and pedestrian-scale

lighting around stations, the new public transport system systems can create a securer environment in

those areas they serve. The best practices worldwide report up to 85% drops in aggregate crime in the

mass transit area in comparison to the times without mass-transit systems.

The decrease in petty crime such as pick-pocketing is also expected in comparison to current situation

with overcrowded buses and stations during the operation time.

Safety

When people switch from taking taxis and driving their cars to riding the bus, a number of environmental

costs, most notably air pollution, decrease. Accident rates also decrease.

In terms of safety, the upgrade of the public transport system will improve pedestrian crossings. In

addition, the travelled vehicle km will be reduced, as passengers will move to buses and high-capacity

buses from taxis.

The new system may driver behaviours by reducing on-the-road competition and improving defensive

driving behaviour, due to introduction of priorisation means of traffic control. The effect on reduction

of fatalities and injuries in urban transport will be also positive, due to fewer vehicles in transport process

and off-setting private and taxi vehicle from the road in favour of bus.




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9 Implementation Arrangements and Risks

For development of the public transport system implementation arrangements are considered in

different phases. The implementation arrangements have inherited risks that are illustrated below.

Implementation Arrangements

The following action should be considered to support implementation of the public transport system.

Phase Aspect Content

2016 Institutional Framework Realisation of enabling framework as described in PuT

corporate plan

2016 Taxi Integration Redefine the roles of taxi according to international

best practice to complement PuT backbones and

feeders

2017 Legal Framework Insure legal framework for provision of public

transport service by commercial operators

2017 Land reservation Land-use for right of way and supporting

infrastructure

2017 Monitoring urban development Balanced development according to the master plan

2017 Revisit demand values Check the public transport demand values and their

impact on pre-feasibility study results .

2017-

2022

Enable policy reforms for public

transport

Integrate the public transport policy reform agenda

into the White Paper on transport and in other

strategic level documents

2017 –

2032

Promote the system development Organise marketing promotion and awareness

campaigns

2017 –

2032

Enable cooperation between the

stakeholders

Coordinate the urban development needs and

monitor the development patterns

2017-

2032

Earmarking funds for public

transport funding

State as a provider of the public transport

2017-

2032

Institutional reform and adherence

to mobility charter

Start the reforms and gradual change in the

institutional setting

All stages Continuation of cross-institutional

cooperation

Cooperation and coordinated action between all

stakeholders involved is a pre-requisite for system

development and upgrade.

Risks and Mitigation Strategies

Potential institutional, socio-economic, operational, system development and environmental risks are

identified. The mitigation strategies for major risks are outlined too.




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112

Risk Level Probability of

occurrence

Changed mobility behaviour changes

demand patterns

Institutional High

Mitigation

strategy

- Constant system monitoring

- Phased implementation

- Cooperation between the involved stakeholders


occurrence

Absence of the policy environment for

system improvement

Institutional Medium

Mitigation

strategy

- Integrate an public transport policy reforms into the White Paper on

transport and other strategic level documents

- Adherence to corporate plan

- Cooperation between the involved stakeholders


occurrence

Land-use for right of way and supporting

infrastructure is not secures

Operational and financial Medium

Mitigation

strategy

- Stakeholder consultations, public hearings, involvement of the urban

planning department of the CoW in the planning process.

- Currently for the planned systems the space is available, but for future

development the urban planning needs to secure spaces

- Adherence to the SUTMP


occurrence

Uncertainty in system acceptance Operational, Financial, Socio

Economic

Medium

Mitigation

strategy

Uncertainty in system acceptance may result in:

- Mistrust of the system, and no acceptance / mobility pattern will not be

affected to the extend planned

- “Over acceptance” of the system, and attraction of the unplanned traffic

flows

Mitigation:

- Work with marketing department at early stages of the system introduction

to assure public awareness

- Campaigns to advertise the system – improve image

- Adherence to implementation and operational concepts (reliability of the




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113


occurrence

system)

- Constant monitoring on implementation via performance indicators and

corrective action

- Public awareness campaigns and education programmes will be necessary

from kick-start of the system


occurrence

Effect on properties (expropriation needs,

damages, etc.)

Socio Economic Medium

Mitigation

strategy



- Currently for the planned systems the space is available, but for future

development the urban planning needs to secure spaces



occurrence

Resettlement of squatters, low-income

housing or subsidised dwellings

Socio Economic Low

Mitigation

strategy

- Adherence to urban development needs





occurrence

Lack of funding Operational, Financial Medium

Mitigation

strategy

- Earmarking funds for public transport funding

- Institutional reform and adherence to mobility charter

- Continuation of cross-institutional cooperation


occurrence

Change of unit cost prices Financial Medium

Mitigation

strategy

- Financial evaluation envisages risks on both CAPEX and OPEX side to allow

for certain price fluctuations in unit costs

- Further costs reassessment at the feasibility study level




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114


occurrence

Capacity of the staff for implementation Operational and

Institutional

Medium

Mitigation

strategy

- Work of the integrated expert

- Adherence to the training measures indicated in the corporate plan

- Additional technical assistance projects / programmes to support

implementation of the system roll-out


occurrence

Lack of skill for LRT technology Operational and

Institutional

Medium

Mitigation

strategy

- Include training component in LRT delivery contract

- Organise needed training capacities for LRT – drivers, include training

programmes into the capacity building plans (including study / training of

public transport operation at peer institutions world-wide, hiring LRT driving

trainers, etc.).

The key mitigation measure in risk management primarily requires recognition of the risks and

adherence to policy and strategic planning documents, in terms of cooperation, cooperation,

commitment and actions. The risks are to be monitored by the owners of the project during the system

implementation, and correction measures are to be introduced. The identified risks are to be assessed

in greater detail at the level of the full-fledged feasibility study.




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10 Conclusions and Recommendations

The project is in line with the SUTMP objectives. It also supports the programming steps of the Namibia’s

Vision 2030, and National Strategic Development Plans.

On the network and operational level the pre-feasibility study concludes to develop the option 1 – BRT

/ LRT mix for five lines to be upgraded as follows:

Line Technology

Phase 1-

Present

-2017

Phase 2

2018-

2022

Phase 3

2023-2027

Phase 4

2028-2032


Havana – Monte Christo (Northern

Development Area, approx. 16 km) – extendable

in north-western direction

bus BRT 1

(2022)

BRT1 BRT1

(till 2032)

LRT

(from

2032)



Goreangab


beginning

of the

operation



beginning

of the

operation



Area – Dortmund – Soweto Market bus bus BRT1(2027) BRT1

This option remains feasible in all demand development scenarios, and will satisfy the mobility

requirements for Windhoek.

In financial terms the development of this option would require the overall public sector financing in the

amount of NAD 3.148 Million from 2017 to 2032. In addition under the first implementation phase the

following public sector obligations are required:

- for bus network establishment (NAD 783 M),

- and costs of the terminal CBS (NAD 50 M)

- and new bus depots (NAD 200M).

The fare-box recovery system for BRT/LRT routes is set considering the affordability levels applicable for

inclusion of the population of Windhoek at 10% over the whole period of the pre-feasibility

investigations.

It is expected that the City of Windhoek will grow during the next 15 to 20 years from about 350,000

inhabitants today to about 700,000 and more and also will do the related number of jobs. These

developments will take place both in area of the city as of today in northern (Brakwater), north-western




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(Havana / Monte Christo) and western (Otjomuise) direction. The growing city would need a reliable

mobility to foster development, social inclusion and economic growth.

The BRT/LRT system in 2032 will form an integral part of the reliable public transport network. This

system satisfies the calculated demand in the best suitable and feasible way.

On institutional level the system requires creation of the enabling environment. The provision of the

public transport services should become a government obligation, and required funding needs to be

provided for securing mobility needs of the citizens. In addition, a gradual transfer towards

commercialisation of the public transport should take place as a prerequisite of the development.

For the system extension the required land along the routes, for future depots and station is to be

secured at early stages of construction. The system is to be planned allowing for future extensions.

The major risk associated with the feasibility of the system is the mobility behaviour, and hence the

transport demand. The new high capacity transit system will change the mobility pattern in Windhoek,

and the mobility pattern will have an impact on transport demand. It is recommended to monitor

constantly the demand development and level of the system acceptance within the population of

Windhoek at least at the 1st year of implementation. This would enable the decision makers to monitor,

analyse and flexibly respond to the new demand patterns.

Still, pre-feasibility level investigations demonstrate high necessity of the BRT/LRT of the project for

improvement of mobility of Windhoek. The BRT/LRT will:

- Facilitate development and accessibility and connectivity for key strategic economic and housing

sites; Provide a public transport system which has a significant step up in both reliability and quality,

to open up new opportunities for travel and actively encourage use of public transport;

- To improve access to existing urban employment centres where congestion frustrates the business

communities and remove the transport barriers to growth

- Improve access to public health and education services in Greater Windhoek;

- Assist in meeting the requirements of the Air Quality Management Areas by cutting carbon

emissions from travel.

It is recommended to conduct a full – feasibility project to detail the route alignment, develop

implementation schedule and start construction of the reliable mobility network for Windhoek.




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Annex 1:

Results of the Financial Model

BRT1-BRT2 2032

– Standard, Low, and High

Demand Scenarios




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Table 10-1: Costs of the BRT-BRT2 System – Standard Demand

Table 10-2: Revenues of the BRT-BRT2 System – Standard Demand

Summary of the costs

BRT System Costs Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Total

2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2017-2032

I CAPITAL COSTS - CAPEX

A Infrastructure

1 cost of the BRT routes of year 23,4$ 146,1$ 159,8$ 75,0$ 404,2$

2.1 Station costs per year 2,5$ 14,1$ 15,6$ 7,1$ 39,3$

2.2 Equipment / facilities at stations 0,4$ 2,4$ 2,6$ 1,2$ 6,6$

3.1 Stations at terminals- 50 m - costruction costs per year 0,5$ 2,7$ 2,7$ -$ 6,0$

3.2 Equipment / facilities at terminal stations 0,2$ 0,9$ 0,9$ -$ 2,0$

4.1 Crossing type 1 - upgrade -costruction costs per year 0,8$ 4,2$ 4,2$ 1,7$ 10,9$

4.2 Crossing type 2 - new -costruction costs per year 2,5$ 13,9$ 13,9$ 6,3$ 36,5$

5.1 Lights, park and ride, etc - completion per year 8,2$ 51,1$ 55,9$ 26,2$ 141,5$

6.1 land acquisition cost per year 200,0$ -$ -$ -$ 200,0$

7.1 robots type 1 - upgrade - installation costs per year 0,4$ 2,9$ 2,5$ 1,3$ 7,1$

7.2 robots type 2- new - installation costs per year 0,1$ 0,6$ 0,7$ 0,3$ 1,8$

7.3 Clearing / Traffic Management Centre Costs per year 23,3$ 116,7$ -$ -$ 140,0$

8.1 ticketing system extension costs per year 0,3$ 1,3$ 1,3$ 1,3$ 4,2$

8.2 System Upgrade by 2032 Infrastructure Costs -$ -$ -$ 1.917,6$ 1.917,6$

B Operating Capital Investment

9.1 BRT fleet purchase per year -$ 88,2$ 214,2$ 233,1$ 535,5$

9.2 System Upgrade by 2032 Infrastructure Costs -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

II Operation Costs - OPEX

10.1 Labour (drivers, management, technicians ) -$ 23,1$ 290,2$ 642,4$ 955,8$

10.2 Fuel and lubricants -$ 17,9$ 224,6$ 497,1$ 739,6$

10.3 Tear - wear, maintenance, repair costs -$ 7,2$ 89,8$ 198,9$ 295,8$

10.4 Maintenance of the stations -$ 2,9$ 22,9$ 32,1$ 57,9$

10.5 Maintenance of the stations at terminals -$ 0,1$ 0,6$ 0,6$ 1,2$

10.6 Mass transit data processing per year / ticketing system -$ 0,7$ 7,8$ 17,6$ 26,1$

Total: 262,8$ 497,0$ 1.110,2$ 3.659,8$ 5.529,7$

thereof:

Capex: Total Infrastructure 262,8$ 356,9$ 260,2$ 2.037,9$ 2.917,8$

Capex: Fleet Procurement -$ 88,2$ 214,2$ 233,1$ 535,5$

Total Costs: CAPEX 262,8$ 445,1$ 474,4$ 2.271,0$ 3.453,3$

Total Costs: OPEX -$ 59,7$ 716,5$ 1.536,7$ 2.312,9$

Total costs: CAPEX + OPEX 262,8$ 497,0$ 1.110,2$ 3.659,8$ 5.529,7$

Risk CAPEX 26,3$ 44,5$ 47,4$ 227,1$ 345,3$

Risk OPEX -$ 3,0$ 35,8$ 76,8$ 115,6$

TOTAL COSTS CAPEX + OPEX + RISKS 289,0$ 544,5$ 1.193,4$ 3.963,7$ 5.990,7$

Total Costs


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 57$ 674$ 1.689$ 2.419$ 94%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 34$ 43$ 80$ 3%

Advers ti s ing -$ 1$ 14$ 51$ 66$ 3%

Sel l i ng BRT bus es -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 0%

Tota l -$ 61$ 722$ 1.782$ 2.565$ 100%




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Table 10-3: Costs of the BRT-BRT2 System – Higher Demand

Table 10-4: Revenues of the BRT-BRT2 System – Higher Demand



2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2017-2032


A Infrastructure














8.2 System Upgrade by 2032 Infrastructure Costs -$ -$ -$ 1.917,6$ 1.917,6$







10.3 Tear - ware, maintenance, repair costs -$ 7,2$ 89,8$ 198,9$ 295,8$




Total: 275,0$ 572,7$ 1.073,6$ 3.613,6$ 5.534,9$

thereof:

Capex: Total Infrastructure 275,0$ 431,7$ 220,3$ 1.990,9$ 2.917,8$



Total Costs: OPEX -$ 61,7$ 723,7$ 1.538,8$ 2.324,2$


Risk CAPEX 27,5$ 52,0$ 43,5$ 222,4$ 345,3$

Risk OPEX -$ 3,1$ 36,2$ 76,9$ 116,2$


Total Costs


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 62$ 741$ 1.858$ 2.661$ 94%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 38$ 47$ 88$ 3%

Adversti s ing -$ 1$ 15$ 56$ 72$ 3%


Total -$ 67$ 794$ 1.961$ 2.821$ 100%




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Table 10-5: Costs of the BRT-BRT2 System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032)

Table 10-6: Revenues of the BRT-BRT2 System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032)



2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2017-2032


A Infrastructure

























Total: 262,8$ 480,5$ 1.087,9$ 1.778,5$ 3.609,6$

thereof:

Capex: Total Infrastructure 262,8$ 340,5$ 239,4$ 157,5$ 1.000,2$


Total Costs: CAPEX 262,8$ 428,7$ 453,6$ 390,6$ 1.535,7$

Total Costs: OPEX -$ 59,3$ 713,2$ 1.534,9$ 2.307,5$


Risk CAPEX 26,3$ 42,9$ 45,4$ 39,1$ 153,6$

Risk OPEX -$ 3,0$ 35,7$ 76,7$ 115,4$


Total Costs


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 51$ 606$ 1.520$ 2.177$ 94%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 31$ 38$ 72$ 3%

Advers ti s ing -$ 1$ 12$ 46$ 59$ 3%


Tota l -$ 55$ 649$ 1.604$ 2.308$ 100%




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Annex 2:

Results of the Financial Model

BRT1-LRT 2032

– Standard, Low, and High

Demand Scenarios




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Table 10-7: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – Standard Demand

Table 10-8: Revenues of the BRT-LRT System– Standard Demand


System Costs Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Total

2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2017-2032


A Infrastructure














8.2 System Upgrade by 2032 Infrastructure Costs -$ -$ -$ 677,9$ 677,9$











Total: 262,8$ 497,0$ 1.110,2$ 3.316,1$ 5.186,1$

thereof:


Capex: Fleet Procurement -$ 88,2$ 214,2$ 1.129,1$ 1.431,5$


Total Costs: OPEX -$ 59,7$ 716,5$ 1.536,7$ 2.312,9$


Risk CAPEX 26,3$ 44,5$ 47,4$ 192,7$ 311,0$

Risk OPEX -$ 3,0$ 35,8$ 76,8$ 115,6$


Total Costs


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 57$ 674$ 1.689$ 2.419$ 90%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 34$ 43$ 80$ 3%

Adversti s ing -$ 1$ 14$ 51$ 66$ 2%

Sel l ing BRT buses -$ -$ -$ 136$ 136$ 5%

Tota l -$ 61$ 722$ 1.918$ 2.701$ 100%




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Table 10-9: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – High Demand

Table 10-10: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – High Demand



2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2017-2032


A Infrastructure

























Total: 275,0$ 572,7$ 1.073,6$ 3.269,9$ 5.191,2$

thereof:


Capex: Fleet Procurement -$ 88,2$ 214,2$ 1.129,1$ 1.431,5$


Total Costs: OPEX -$ 61,7$ 723,7$ 1.538,8$ 2.324,2$


Risk CAPEX 27,5$ 52,0$ 43,5$ 188,0$ 311,0$

Risk OPEX -$ 3,1$ 36,2$ 76,9$ 116,2$


Total Costs


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 62$ 741$ 1.858$ 2.661$ 90%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 38$ 47$ 88$ 3%

Advers ti s ing -$ 1$ 15$ 56$ 72$ 2%

Sel l i ng BRT buses -$ -$ -$ 136$ 136$ 5%

Tota l -$ 67$ 794$ 2.097$ 2.957$ 100%




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124

Table 10-11: Costs of the BRT-LRT System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032)

Table 10-12: Revenues of the BRT-LRT System – Low Demand (No BRT2 operation as of 2032)



2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032 2017-2032


A Infrastructure

























Total: 262,8$ 480,5$ 1.087,9$ 1.778,5$ 3.609,6$

thereof:



Total Costs: CAPEX 262,8$ 428,7$ 453,6$ 390,6$ 1.535,7$

Total Costs: OPEX -$ 59,3$ 713,2$ 1.534,9$ 2.307,5$


Risk CAPEX 26,3$ 42,9$ 45,4$ 39,1$ 153,6$

Risk OPEX -$ 3,0$ 35,7$ 76,7$ 115,4$


Total Costs


2017 2018-2022 2023-2027 2028-2032

Fare revenue -$ 51$ 606$ 1.520$ 2.177$ 94%

Fine Col lection -$ 3$ 31$ 38$ 72$ 3%

Advers ti s ing -$ 1$ 12$ 46$ 59$ 3%


Tota l -$ 55$ 649$ 1.604$ 2.308$ 100%

1


The Sustainable




Annex 3: Direct Financial Benefit to the

Households from New Bus Services in 2015

February 2015

2

The responsibility of the project and its implementation lies with the Ministry of Works and Transport and the City of Windhoek.



Cedric Limbo

6. City of Windhoek

Clarence Rupingena

7. GIZ GmbH

Prof. Dr. Heinrich Semar Gregor Schmorl Michael Engelskirchen

8. Consulting Team

Prof. Dr. Ashraf Hamed Bruno F. Hegner Wolfgang Sievers Georgis Emmanouilidis Christiane Maier Yulia Usatova Betina Victoria

and

In cooperation with

Contact Cedric Limbo Ministry of Works and Transport Windhoek Email: [email protected] Clarence Rupingena City of Windhoek Email: [email protected] Prof. Dr. Heinrich Semar Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH P.O Box 8016,Windhoek, Namibia, [email protected]

Windhoek, 30/01/2015

Pre-Feasibility Study for the Sustainable Urban Transport Master Plan for Windhoek including Rehoboth, Okahandja and Hosea Kutako International Airport

DORNIERCONSULTING

3

Contents

1 SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT ....................................................................................................... 4

2 MONETARY BENEFITS .............................................................................................................. 5

2.1 Trip purpose of individuals ......................................................................................................... 5

2.2 Households ................................................................................................................................. 6

3 NON-MONETARY BENEFITS .................................................................................................... 11

3.1 Time savings ............................................................................................................................. 11

3.2 Improvements in terms of Quality of Life ................................................................................ 11

3.3 Environmental effects .............................................................................................................. 11

4 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................... 12

4

1 Scope of the document

This document is based on the scope of work done under the Terms of Reference for the Pre-feasibility

Study for the SUTMP. The objective is to demonstrate the effect of the introduced services (new Bus service)

on the population within the city of Windhoek.

Within this document the direct and indirect monetary as well as the non-monetary implications due to the

new Bus Service is highlighted.

The direct monetary implications will present the savings per average household when utilising the new bus

service instead of currently (January 2015) available alternative public transportation. A household

consisting of different individuals such as a worker (full time employed), student and housewife (part time

or not employed). Indirect monetary indicators are also listed.

Non-monetary estimations are based on factors such as time savings, improvements of quality of life and

environmental savings due to reduction of pollution. This document will also give an indication on passive

benefits such as the reduction of congestion thereby increasing the capacity of the roads as the bus service

will consolidate mass public transportation needs.

For the mobility pattern and mode of transport, the data obtained from the stated preference survey is

used.

5

2 Monetary benefits

Monetary benefits are benefits is where recipients receive benefits in terms of cash. These have been

rounded to the nearest N$ 0.05.

Calculation indicators

2.1.1 Trip purpose of individuals

For the purposes of this document a trip has been defined as the process of travelling from one place to

another, staying there, usually for a short time, and coming back again. Trips are generated due to the need

of the traveller to achieve a specific purpose. Several major purpose groups have been identified during the

stated preference survey. These are for Work, Education, Leisure, Health and to a lesser extend others

(which do not fall within the previously mentioned groupings). For the purposes of this document the trip

purposes have been categorised as Work, Education and Leisure. Leisure also includes trips for health

reasons as well as for other reasons.

The mode of transport column refers to the choice of public transportation utilised to execute a trip.

Currently three types of public transport categories are easily distinguishable. These are services offered by

Taxis, CoW Busses and privately organised trips such as Mini-busses or by Pick-ups.

2.1.2 Fare paid calculation

The fare is the sum charged or paid for conveyance in any mode of public transport. It should be noted that

the “2x Taxi” refers to trips by Taxi for which you have to generally pay double the standard “Taxi” fare. This

applies mainly for morning trips as the same trip in the afternoon generally costs the standard Taxi fare.

2.1.3 Mode choice pattern

The stated preference survey conducted in September 2015 in the framework of this study has confirmed

a certain pattern of mode choice. These patterns are used in the following calculations.

Currently it is estimated that 50% of workers utilising Taxi pay the “2x Taxi” fare to reach their places of

employment. These highest affected user group is expected to be the utilizers of “2x Taxi” fare which is

estimated to decrease drastically based on the cost savings. The distribution is shown in Table 2-1

2.1.4 Changes in the mode pattern in 2016

With the introduction of the scheduled bus system, it is targeted to reach 80% of the current public service

users between 2016 and 2020. This target is achieved through successive service improvement (Frequency,

coverage) hence reducing dependency on the taxi system. The high utilisation rate is deduced from the high

importance that the cost of a trip had as well as the underlying principles to be achieved by the new bus

service. With the scheduled service and the network approach applied, the need for taxis before or after

the bus will be significantly less. Also the use of taxi will be increasingly substituted by the schedule bus

service

Table 2-1: Work trip distribution

Trip purpose Work

Mode of

Transport

Fare paid

[N$]

Current distribution

(Jan 2015) [%]

Expected Distribution

(2016) [%]

Taxi

2x Taxi

CoW Bus

Private

10

20

6

8

20.5

20.5

37

22

11

3

80

6

Sum 100 100

Total Saving per trip [N$] 5.25

Education trips include not only trips to school but also trips to universities and colleges.

6

Table 2-2: Education trip distribution

Trip purpose Education

Mode of

Transport

Fare paid

[N$]


(Jan 2015) [%]


(2016) [%]

Taxi

2x Taxi

CoW Bus

Private

10

20

6

8

30

45

4

21

7

7

80

6

Sum 100 100


Leisure trips encompass all trips apart from trips required for work or educational purposes.

Table 2-3: Leisure and Other trip distribution

Trip purpose Leisure

Mode of

Transport

Fare paid

[N$]


(Jan 2015) [%]


(2016) [%]

Taxi

2x Taxi

CoW Bus

Private

10

20

6

8

80

20

0

0

14

6

80

0

Sum 100 100


Savings per Households

2.2.1 Household size

Based on the 2011 census an average household consists of 3.8 people. For purposes of this document it

shall be assumed to represent 4 persons. This is taken as an average household consisting of 1x Worker, 2x

children of school going age and 1x unemployed or partially employed adult.

Therefore two family compositions have been considered. The families are as follows:

and

Family A

Members

Working person

Student / Pupil

Student / Pupil

Unemployed

Family B

Members

Working person

Student / Pupil

Student / Pupil

Part Time employed

7

The primary target group for this study is the lower income population group. The trips for work purposes

for this population group is based on a travelling requirement of 6 working days per week and 4 weeks per

month. Thus a month has been estimated to consist of 24 working days on average.

For leisure it is estimated that an average family of 4 consisting out of 2 adults and 2 children at least each

will generate 3 return trips within the month. Thus 12 leisure trips will be generated each month by an

average household.

2.2.2 Mobility patterns and average costs

The following mobility patterns were estimated for typical persons

Table 2-4: Mobility pattern

Family A Mobility Pattern (trips per month)

Type Work Education Leisure Others Total

Working

person

24 (6*4) - 3 - 27

Student /

Pupil

- 20 (5*4) 3 23

Student /

Pupil

- 20 (5*4) 3 23

Unemployed - - 3 6 9

Family B Mobility Pattern (trips per month)

Type Work Education Leisure Others Total

Working

person

24 (6*4) - 3 - 27

Student /

Pupil

- 20 (5*4) 3 23

Student /

Pupil

- 20 (5*4) 3 23

Part Time

employed

12 (3*4) 4 (1*4) 3 2 21

Table 2-5: Current Average Cost below outlines the average cost incurred by public transport users based

on Table 2-1: Work trip distribution.

8

Table 2-5: Current Average Cost

With reference to the Figure below

(The current condition of the local

economy in terms of costs of

transport9); and based on the

statement that “on average, low

income earners have to spend 24 % of

their disposable income for their

mobility needs10, the above Table 2-5:

Current Average Cost gives an average

income per household to be in order of

N$ 6 900.00.

2.2.3 Patter change

The availability of a reliable, scheduled

and customer friendly new bus service

will result in more people utilising the

bus. Due to this the high “2x Taxi” rate will mainly not be utilised which will be the main portion of the

savings affecting mainly workers and students. Furthermore savings will also be realised by the marginal

difference between the N$ 6 bus fare and the N$ 10 Taxi fare.

The above will have as a consequence that more people will utilise the new bus service. It is expected that

from the present public transport ridership that 80% will make use of the new bus service. Therefore with

the introduction of the new bus service it is expected that the direct financial costs will reduce to the figures

as presented below in Table 2-6: Estimate Cost (80% Bus Usage).

9 Source: http://www.movewindhoek.com.na/news/why-do-we-need-re-think-our-transport-system-part-i-povertyreduction) 10 Source Assoc. Prof. Madejski E., Ms. Amushila R and Ms. Kulatau L, The effect of Regulations on the efficiency of Bus and Taxi

Services in Windhoek

Family A

Type To From To From To From Sum

Working person 243 194 36 30 503

Student / Pupil 278 188 36 30 533

Student / Pupil 278 188 36 30 533

Unemployed 108 90 198

Cost [N$] 1 767

Family B



Student / Pupil 278 188 36 30 533

Student / Pupil 278 188 36 30 533

Part Time employed 122 97 56 38 60 50 422

Cost [N$] 1 991

Cost [N$]

Work Education Leisure & Others

Cost [N$]

Leisure & OthersWork Education

9

Table 2-6: Estimate Cost (80% Bus Usage)

It can be deducted that from the comparison of Table 2-5: Current Average Cost and Table 2-6: Estimate

Cost (80% Bus Usage) that the financial benefit for an average household savings per use will be as

presented in Table 2-7: Savings per usage below.

Table 2-7: Savings per usage

Based on Table 2-4: Mobility pattern and Table 2-7: Savings per usage the savings per household can then

be summarised to be as shown in Table 2-8: Savings per Household.

Family A



Student / Pupil 138 124 22 20 305

Student / Pupil 138 124 22 20 305

Unemployed 67 61 128

Cost [N$] 1 107

Family B



Student / Pupil 138 124 22 20 305

Student / Pupil 138 124 22 20 305

Part Time 84 80 30 27 37 34 291

Cost [N$] 1 271

Estimate Cost (80% Bus Usage) [N$]



Estimate Cost (80% Bus Usage) [N$]

Family A

Type To From To From To From

Working person 3 1 5 3

Student / Pupil 47 21 5 3


Unemployed 5 3

Family B

Type To From To From To From

Working person 3 1 5 3



Part Time employed 3 1 7 3 5 3

Savings per Use [N$]



Savings per Use [N$]

10

Table 2-8: Savings per Household

and

The highest beneficiary due to the change of public transportation will be the persons travelling for

education. A cost saving of 43% is envisaged for this particular group.

Based on the above findings, an average household will save in the order of N$ 700.00 per month. This is

about 36% of their transport budget and this will be a direct monetary benefit.

Family A

Type N$ %

Working person 133 26%

Student / Pupil 228 43%


Unemployed 70 35%

Cost Savings [N$] 659 37%

Savings

SUM Family B

Type N$ %

Working person 133 26%



Part Time employed 131 31%

Cost Savings [N$] 720 36%

Savings

SUM

11

3 Non-Monetary benefits

Time savings

The current bus service generally required up to 1.5 hrs to complete a trip. Due to the implementation of

the SUTMP this service will be reduced to less than an hour. This means that the trip time for all current bus

service users will be shortened by 2 hours per day. This equates to a total of 48 hours or 2 days per month

that the user would spend less on the bus.

Improvements in terms of Quality of Life

Quality of life is defined as the general well-being of a person or society, defined in terms of health and

happiness, rather than wealth.

The reduction of trip time has a far reaching effect on the quality of life of its users.

With regards to students making use of the bus service, they will arrive at their destinations (be it home or

school) faster. Which means that they will be more alert and receptive to their studies which in turn will

yield a better performance.

For the working user the faster service translated into being more productive at work.

The reduced time spend on travelling will increase the available time users will have with their family and

friends.

The new bus service will also drastically increase the accessibility for the majority of the City of Windhoek

population.

Environmental effects

The major environmental effect will be the reduction of pollution emissions. A bus will replace in the order

of 20 sedan vehicles. With an average frequency of 20 minutes per cycle time a single line will replace the

need of 60 sedan vehicles. This extended to about 10 lines results in the reduction of about 600 sedan

vehicles during peak hour traffic.

12

4 Conclusion

The introduction of the new bus services would result in the following impact on poverty reduction (figures

rounded to nearest N$ 5.00)

• Monetary saving per average worker of N$ 135.00 per month.

• Monetary saving per average student / pupil of N$ 230.00 per month.

• Monetary saving per average part time / unemployed person of N$ 100.00 per month.

• A total monetary per average household in the order of N$ 700.00 per month.

Based on an estimated 150 000 person trips to be generated utilizing public transport services per week,

the estimated savings are in the order of N$ 70 million per annum.

1


The Sustainable




Annex IV: Screening of the Lines 1 and 2

2

The responsibility of the project and its implementation lies with the Ministry of Works and Transport and the City of Windhoek.



Cedric Limbo

2. City of Windhoek

Clarence Rupingena

3. GIZ GmbH

Prof. Dr. Heinrich Semar Gregor Schmorl Michael Engelskirchen

4. Consulting Team

Dr. Ashraf Hamed Bruno F. Hegner Wolfgang Sievers Georgis Emmanouilidis Christiane Maier Yulia Usatova Victoria Betina

and

In cooperation with

Contact Cedric Limbo Ministry of Works and Transport Windhoek Email: [email protected] Clarence Rupingena City of Windhoek Email: [email protected] Prof. Dr. Heinrich Semar Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH P.O Box 8016,Windhoek, Namibia, [email protected]

Windhoek, 31/12/2014

Pre-Feasibility Study for the Sustainable Urban Transport Master Plan for Windhoek including Rehoboth, Okahandja and Hosea Kutako International Airport

DORNIERCONSULTING

3

Contents

1 SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT ....................................................................................................... 5

2 APPROACH ............................................................................................................................... 6

2.1 Screening of of the Line 1 and 2 ................................................................................................. 6

2.1.1 Routing .............................................................................................................................. 6

2.1.2 Criteria .............................................................................................................................. 6

3 PHASE 1: BRT LINES ON TRUNK ROADS – NORTHERN REGION OF WINDHOEK ............................ 7

3.1 The Line 1 BRT (indicated in RED) .............................................................................................. 7

3.2 The Line 2 BRT (indicated in BLUE) ............................................................................................. 7

4 PHASE 2: PROLONGED BRT LINE AND ADDITIONAL BHLS LINES (2022) ..................................... 11

4.1 The Line 1 BRT (indicated in RED) ............................................................................................ 11

5 SCREENING OF GEOMETRIC ADEQUACIES – LINES 1 AND 2 ...................................................... 13

4

Table of Figures

Figure 3-1: Line 1 (phase 1) 7

Figure 3-2: Line 2 8

Figure 3-3: Phase 1 (Line 1 & 2) 10

Figure 4-1: Line 1 (phase 2) 11

Figure 4-2: Line 1 (phase 1 & 2) 12

Figure 5-1: Route 1, phase 1 Screening Parameters 13






Fare System & Ticketing

November 2014

5

1 Scope of the Document

The following document presents the results of the screeming of the Lines 1 and 2. The screening was

undertaken in the inception phase, and revised during the implementation of the Phase 1.

The screening was organised via site visits, driving under bus-suitable conditions along the routes, and

accompaned by GPS-tracing of the route, and videos.

The screening process was coordinated with the City of Windhoek, and the staff of the Public Transport

Deparment was directly involved in the process.

The related video and GPS materials were transferred to the City of Windhoek. Training of videa and GPS

– screening has been provided.





November 2014

6

2 Approach

Screening of of the Line 1 and 2

This sectiopn focuses on screening the suitability of geometric characteristics of the routes

recommended by the Master Plan for the bus services, be it BRT or BHLS.11

The Consultant pursued a documented verification of the adequacy of the corridor. The documentation

is carried out using a GPS based video HD-capturing device that was captured for the GIS coordinates of

the cross section and plot that to an online google map.

Due to the fact that the routes recommended by the SUTMP are not real alignment but more or less a

recommended corridor around roughly simulated demand lines; it was necessary to choose a

methodology that allowed a revisiting of the roads cross sections and review its environment at different

stages, possibly from different perspective.

The entire video documentation (over 10 hours of videos) of the route is available on the Flash memory

of this report the corporate plan the software necessary to review those files (Super Car). The evaluation

of this documentation is given in this chapter and further details are documented in Enclosure.

2.1.1 Routing

The screening followed a north bound route while screening BRT route as well as when discussing the

geometric adequacies and challenges with regard to the route lines.

It is further assumed (based on the SUMTP) that the Central Bus Station (CBS) would be located at the

mainly vacant lot, currently being used by mini busses travelling to Rehoboth as well as the informal car

wash used by Taxis. This lot is enclosed by John Meinert Street to the north, Hosea Kutako Drive to the

West, Dr Frans Indongo Street to the south and Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue to the east.

2.1.2 Criteria

For the geometric adequacy; the following criteria are screened at successive section of the route / road:

i) Number of existing lanes

ii) Available land for addition of traffic lanes for motorized transport or the inclusion of NMT

(cycle lane and pedestrian walkway)

iii) Geometric features:

a. Adequacy of turning radii for bus

b. Traffic control facilities (lights, Four-ways, Traffic Circles, Speed humps)

c. Location of existing bus stops and details thereto

iv) Safety considerations in terms of the lanes proximity to public institutions, points of interest

or the existence of unofficial pedestrian crossings (which are not regulated by traffic

facilities) as far as these could be determined.

11 Terms of Reference requirement





November 2014

7

3 Phase 1: BRT Lines on Trunk Roads – Northern Region of Windhoek

Reference is made to the layout as portrait in Fig 5.14 of the SUMTP Final Report 2013 page 125. The

general route alignments are outlined below:

The Line 1 BRT (indicated in RED)

- The first phase of Line 1 starts at the envisaged Central Bus Station on Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue

and continues in a northerly direction until it turns right into Bahnhof Street. It follows Bahnhof

Street until it turns left into Independence Avenue. The route continues along Independence Avenue

and terminates at the junction with Otjomuise Road. The route is shown in Figure 3-1: Line 1 (phase

1).

- Based on the assessment under Enclosure, Table 1-1, it should be noted that Line 1 phase 1 is

adequate in terms of geometry to harbor the expected busses. Some upgrading of the alignment

would be required for dedicated bus lanes.

Figure 3-1: Line 1 (phase 1)

The Line 2 BRT (indicated in BLUE)

- Starts at the Central Bus Station. It follows a northerly direction along Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue





November 2014

8

turning right into Bahnhof Street up to the junction with Independence Avenue. It then turns left

into Independence Avenue. It follows Independence Avenue until it turns right into Hosea Kutako

Drive. It proceeds in a northerly direction along Hosea Kutako Drive up to the junction with Monte

Christo Road which it follows in a westerly direction and terminates at the crossing with Matshitshi

Street. This is shown in

.

- Based on the assessment under Annex 2, Table 2, it can be noted that Line 2 exhibits a minor

challenge regarding the geometric adequacy, through the existence of two kerbed islands in Monte

Christo Road which would need to be removed. Otherwise the geometric standard is acceptable and

would cater sufficiently for the utilization by the expected busses. For dedicated bus lanes the

existing geometry can be expanded to cater for additional lanes as required.

Figure 3-2: Line 2





November 2014

9

- Figure 3-3 shows the development for Phase 1: BRT Lines on Trunk Roads – Northern Region of

Windhoek.





November 2014

10

Figure 3-3: Phase 1 (Line 1 & 2)





November 2014

11

4 Phase 2: Prolonged BRT Line and additional BHLS lines (2022)

The Line 1 BRT (indicated in RED)

- This line is extended to the south. The SUTMP is unclear (refer to pages 114 and 115) of the

alignment for the extension. On page 114 the extension commences from Mandume Ndemufayo

Avenue (near the University of Namibia [UNAM]) whereas on page 115 it commences from Hochland

Road. In order to create a network on generally equal length the consultant has opted to accept the

version on page 115 (extension to commence at Hochland Road).

- Thus the alignment now commences at the bridge on Hochland Road over the Western Bypass. It

proceeds along Hochland road and turns left into Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue. It follows

Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue in a northerly direction up until the CBS. This is shown in Figure 4-1:

Line 1 (phase 2).

- Hereafter as described under phase 1: it then follows Mandume Ndemufayo Avenue until it turns

right into Bahnhof Street and then proceeds left into Independence Avenue. The route continues

along Independence Avenue and terminates at the junction with Otjomuise Road. This is shown in

Figure 4-2: Line 1 (phase 1 & 2).

- The route is sufficient to cater for dedicated bus lanes and sufficient land has been reserved for the

addition of lanes if required.

Figure 4-1: Line 1 (phase 2)





November 2014

12

Figure 4-2: Line 1 (phase 1 & 2)

13

5 Screening of geometric adequacies – Lines 1 and 2

Figure 5-1: Route 1, phase 1 Screening Parameters



1

Ministry Work and Transport

Head Office Building

6719 Bell St

Snyman Circle

Windhoek, Namibia

City of Windhoek

Head Office

80 Independence Avenue

P.O Box 59

Windhoek, Namibia,

www.windhoekcc.org.na

Deutsche Gesellschaft für

Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

P.O Box 8016

Windhoek, Namibia,

www.giz.de

pre-feasibility study_final report.pdf

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