predicting possible natural disasters robert slomp

7/28/2019 Predicting Possible Natural Disasters Robert Slomp

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10 maart 2011

Predicting Possible

Natural disastersmodels for risk mapping andforecast models

Robert Slomp


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Predicting Possible Natural disasters2 10 maart 2011Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

contents

models for risk mappingmulti layer risk strategy

how we make flood risk maps

worst credible floods

flood scenarios

forecast models

we receive weather forecasts

Role of the LCO (set up in 2010), integrating both


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Multi layer risk strategy

Katrina, New Orleans 2005, wake up call

For spatial planning and emergency services

Flood safety policy is a mix of:

- Emergency services measures (& planning)

- Spatial planning building of a flood

resilient environment (housing & services )

- Flood protection: dunes, dikes, barriers


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Tools to determine flood risk,

a folder is available


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Worst Credible floods

National scenarios

Single floodevents:- River floods

- coastal floodsnorthern coastwestern coast

- Combinations


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Time table


4300 square km

120 Mld Euro10.000 casualties



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Western coast scenario flood depth after 48 hours


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Flood forecasting

Storms

Two services merged in the Water management center of theNetherlands (WMCN)

Stormvloed Seind Dienst (SVSD) for the coast

Waarschuwingsdienst Dijken IJsselmeergebied (WDIJ) for the largelakes


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The Netherlandsprotected by:

Dikes

Dunes

Barriers

WMCNStorm surge warning service

Dike watch


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Measurements

& forecasts

WMCN

Storm Surge Warning Service

KNMI(Royal met-office)

Dike-authorities (Water boards)

Safety regions (Firebrigade)

Provinces

Rijkswaterstaat

Decision teams Stormsurge barriers

Eastern-Scheldt

Krimpen a/d IJssel

Maeslant barrier & Hartelcanal

Press

Radio en TV

Internet / public

Headquarters

Rijkswaterstaat

Online

measurements

Waterlevel

Windspeed

WinddirectionWaves

Forecasts

Weather

Waterlevel

Warnings

Info

rmation

Advise

Dikewatch

Waterlevel

fo

recasts

Warning by

phone callfor very high

waterlevel

Alarm by

phone call forextreme high

waterlevel

Information

Measurements

Storm surge Alert

Measurements

Forecasts

Waterlevelforecasts

Meteo forecasts

Information

Organisation Storm surgewarning service

LCOalerting


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Hirlam downscaling 50 km grid picture


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Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Warning levelsWarning levels

Frequency 2/year 1/year 1/5year

Sector Basis station pre-W-level W-level A-level

Scheldt Flushing 310 330 370

W Holland Hook of Holland 200 220 280

Dordrecht Dordrecht - - 250

Den Helder Den Helder - 190 260

Harlingen Harlingen - 270 330

Delfzijl Delfzijl 260 300 380

storm surge barriers

SVKY Krimpen a/d IJssel 210* - -

SVKO Roompot buiten 275 300* -

SVKW Hook of Holland - 250 300*

*) level when storm surge barriers will be locked


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Step 33-48 hrs before HW

DCSM8 water level forecast

Every 6 hours

Step 23-48 hrs before HW

HIRLAM Meteo forecast

Every 6 hours

Step 1

Early indication of storm surges3 8 days before HW

ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Every 12 hours

Step 43-12 hrs beforeWaterleveldata

AssimilationEvery 3 hours

Process of makingstorm surge warnings

Step 6

Evaluation and validationprocess and modells

Measurements

Eastern Scheldt Barrier / Maeslantbarrier

Dike Watch

3-12 hrs beforeStep 6 SVSD warning systedike watch recommendatioalert authoritiesalert emergency services

advice closing barrierspublication

internet

Report

SVSDStep 5

ExperienceMan / Machine

MixEvery hour


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Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Storm surge barriers

There are different movable barriers along the Dutchcoast:

Krimpen aan de IJssel 1957

Haringvliet 1970

Oosterschelde 1986

Nieuwe Waterweg 1997

Hartelkanaal 1997

Different dike (rail)road crossings

Fi Coupure Delfzijl


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Accuracy storm surge sometimes it goesforecastings wrong

All saints storm tide 1st Nov 2006

Maxwindspeed


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winddirection

Track of storm

Windforce 9 Bft


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Models to predict dune erosion

HIS KUST

Find picture


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Models to predict run-up on the dikes (WDIJ)

FEWS MEREN

Include picture


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LCO National Committee on floods (since 2010)

Integration of risk mapping/scenarios and prediction

(using the ten day ensemble prediction)

We are never done, improving, our models and improving our skills inusing them. (Every storm of river flood is unique, and offers new

insights on how nature works)

Because of uncertainty and models errors interpretation and floodwarnings cannot be automated


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Questions?


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Pictures I will not use, since they are more a matter of themeteorological services


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Ten day ensemble for wind and precipitation


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predicting possible natural disasters robert slomp

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