predictions 2014: advance & intelligence
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Predictions 2014Advance. Intelligence.
Predictions was first published in 2001
Death of the PC
67% at Oct ‘14
Which device is more important to you —that is, which device could you least do without?
(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)
Global Internet Traffic by Device Type
4K TV
8
11 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Smartglasses
You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost ~$500, and may violate various laws, right?
Smartglasses for smartworkers
Is it time for smartwatches?
But what about fitness trackers?
We have had the decade of the device
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
99
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E
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PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
The decade of the device
Bil
lio
ns
Smartphone replacement cycles are getting longer
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e
Ha
nds
et
rep
lac
em
en
t c
yc
le in
mo
nths
Source: US data, Recon Analytics, BI Intelligence
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13P 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E
5 year trailing CAGR
Less money forhardware means
more money for…
U.S. consumer electronic sales as a percent of global sales of PCs, smartphones,
tablets, TVs and game consoles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E
67%
23%10%
5.1” to 5.9”
6.0” to 6.9”
Phablet ownership breakdown
5.0” to 5.1”
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely
Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely
After seeing Predictions, how likely are you to spend more money with Deloitte?
(normal distribution)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely
Somewhat unlikely I'd rather be attackedby weasels
Thinking about your next mobile device, how likely
are you to purchase a phablet?
(55+ only, n=351)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-34 35-54 55+
Likely (T2B)
Very Unlikely (BB)
Phablet intent to purchase as next
mobile device
n=184 n=230 n=129
16%Overall(n=1,032)
46%
Phablet intent to purchase as next
mobile device (cont’d)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Likely (T2B)
Unlikely (BB)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
16%Overall(n=1,032)
46%
5.0 - 6.9 inches - phablets <5.0 inches
Phablets will be 25% of the global smartphone market of 1.2 billion devices.
At an ASP of $417, that’s $125 billion in sales.
Global smartphone sales
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
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$700
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$900
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PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
Putting $125B in context
Bil
lio
ns
APEJ portable PC, tablet and phablet shipments,
2011 Q4 - 2013 Q2
0 M
3 M
6 M
9 M
12 M
15 M
18 M
21 M
24 M
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Unit Shipments
Portable PC Tablet Phablet
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /
Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /
Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Germany
France
Netherlands
United States
UK
Japan
Spain
South Korea
Singapore
Proportion of phablet owners having a smaller smartphone too
Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, Developed countries, May-June 2013
Base: All Smartphone owners: 16, 378, Smartphone owners 12,313, Large smartphone owners 8,269
27.626.7 27.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Hours of traditional TV watched per week by all Canadians aged 2+
0–20% Quintile – average hours per week
4.13.8
3.63.4
3.1
5.8 5.9
4.94.6
4.33.9
7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6
7.16.9
7.16.8
6.6
7.1 7.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E
Av
era
ge
Ho
urs
pe
r W
ee
k
Total TV Eng (0-20%) Total TV French (0-20%)
Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a
*PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009
Adjusted to compare to PPM data
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female
n=244 n=437 n=351 n=454 n=578
Canadians who currently subscribe to a video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in the free first month
Overall(n=1,032)
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Current Subs/First Month
Former Subs
Video subscription services (i.e. Netflix)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
Overall(n=1,032)
19%
7%
H1 2014 North American Fixed
TMT Predictions tailored events
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