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October 30-November 3, 2011 Orlando, Florida Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress Hotel Hosted by Predictive Analytics with Simulation Conference 2011 Keynote Speakers HENRY T. GLISSON Lieutenant General U.S. Army Retired Managing Director True North Logistics Enabling the Army’s Materiel Enterprise Industry Focus Conference Topics Include: DoD Readiness/Transformation Forces and Staff Planning Materiel Synchronization Decision Support Cost and Readiness Relationships Course(s) of Action Analysis Accelerate Lean Six Sigma Initiatives Continuous Process Improvement Bottleneck and Throughput Analysis Predictive Capacity Modeling Strategic Initiatives Supply Chain/Logistics Service Level Improvement Enterprise Decision Support Optimization Project and Portfolio Planning & Optimization Project Selection Resource Capacity Planning Strategic Planning Project & Portfolio Risk Analysis Providing High Quality Healthcare for an Uncertain Future Strategic Patient Flow New Facility Design – Ensuring Capacity Meets Future Demand Schedule Optimization to Improve Bed Utilization Simulation Wars Academic Competition Students will be competing to develop the best “Future State” in manufacturing, healthcare and portfolio planning Attend presentations from the Army, Navy, Pfizer, Lockheed Martin, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Panda Restaurants, The VA, General Dynamics and more to learn how they are using leading edge simulation solutions to achieve breakthrough performance at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. • DoD • Government • Healthcare • Pharmaceutical • Manufacturing • Logistics • Academia MARK W. SHAFER Senior Vice President of Revenue Management & Analytics Walt Disney Parks & Resorts Game-Changing Analytics: A Disney Perspective

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October 30-November 3, 2011Orlando, Florida

Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress Hotel

Hosted by

Predictive Analytics with Simulation Conference 2011

Keynote Speakers

HENRY T. GLISSONLieutenant General U.S. Army RetiredManaging Director True North Logistics

Enabling the Army’s Materiel Enterprise

Industry Focus

Conference Topics Include:• DoD Readiness/Transformation

Forces and Staff PlanningMateriel Synchronization Decision Support Cost and Readiness RelationshipsCourse(s) of Action Analysis

• Accelerate Lean Six Sigma InitiativesContinuous Process ImprovementBottleneck and Throughput AnalysisPredictive Capacity Modeling

• Strategic InitiativesSupply Chain/LogisticsService Level ImprovementEnterprise Decision Support Optimization

• Project and Portfolio Planning & Optimization

Project SelectionResource Capacity PlanningStrategic PlanningProject & Portfolio Risk Analysis

• Providing High Quality Healthcare for an Uncertain FutureStrategic Patient FlowNew Facility Design – Ensuring Capacity Meets Future Demand Schedule Optimization to Improve Bed Utilization

• Simulation Wars Academic CompetitionStudents will be competing to develop the best “FutureState” in manufacturing, healthcare and portfolio planning

Attend presentations from the Army, Navy, Pfizer, LockheedMartin, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Panda Restaurants, The VA, General Dynamics and more to learn how they are using leading edge simulation solutionstoachievebreakthroughperformance at strategic, tactical, and operational levels.

•DoD•Government•Healthcare•Pharmaceutical

•Manufacturing•Logistics•Academia

MARK W. SHAFERSenior Vice President of Revenue Management & AnalyticsWaltDisneyParks&Resorts

Game-Changing Analytics: A Disney Perspective

Discoverthe latest predictive analytic technology and techniques being used by your peers in both traditional and non-traditional ways to help them make better decisions – faster. Enjoy valuable networking time in a variety of settings with these simulation users to envision how these solutions can be implemented in your organizations.

The entire ProModel team will also be at your disposal during the week. Network with one of our executives for an enhanced perspective on various industry trends. Meet with your regional representative to see how you can further benefit from the use of our technologies. Team up with one of our expert support engineers or consultants to solve that puzzling modeling problem that seems to defy solution. Whatever your needs, you will have access to the representative with your answer.

Predictive Analytics with Simulation Conference 2011

KeynoteSpeakers

Enabling the Army’s Materiel Enterprise

Discover how the use of decision support tools can facilitate better decision-making and management across the enterprise as it performs the equipping

function of the recurring Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN) process.

Game-Changing Analytics: A Disney Perspective

We live in a world of constant change and evolution. Yesterday’s strategic advantage can quickly become tomorrow’s industry standard. Your company’s ability

to compete on analytics and leverage the unique competitive advantages gained in this area is no

exception to this hard cold truth. To stay competitive, companies must continue to invest and evolve at an ever increasing rate. In this plenary talk, Shafer will explore some of the ways one of the most creative

companies in the world thinks about analytical-based decision making and how it integrates technology

and analytical innovation into delivering world-class experiences to its fans and guests across

multiple platforms.

HENRY T. GLISSONLieutenant General, U.S. Army Retired

Managing Director, True North Logistics, LLC.

MARK W. SHAFER

Senior Vice President of Revenue Management and Analytics

Walt Disney Parks and Resorts

SpeakerPreview:Capabilities to Synchronize Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN)Fred Rawcliffe, FORSCOM G3 Plans, Strategy, Policy, and Transformation Division, Enterprise ArchitectArmy Force Generation (ARFORGEN) is a force management process that leverages modular unit designs and operational cycles to provide a sustained deployment capability of operationally ready units. ARFORGEN synchronizes people, equipment, training, resources and formations over time to satisfy force requirements placed on the Army’s force inventory. Individual units undergo a structured progression of increased readiness over time, culminating in full mission readiness and availability to deploy in their “Available” cycle. The necessary manning, equipping, resourcing, and training processes are synchronized to generate ready forces from the active and reserve components to achieve a sustained deployment capability and a capability to surge forces for other requirements.

AST provides an Enterprise methodology and mechanism for global synchronization of Army capital. AST harmonizes actual force requirements with projected force structure and also provides prognostic analysis on force generation to previously analog and stove-piped assessments. AST has provided substantial new predictive analytical capability within this new force generation process. Specifically, AST provides ARFORGEN functional “drag & drop” applications containing graphical time-based depictions of force requirements, unit schedules, and events by unit over time by location for Army Enterprise synchronization.

Model-BasedEnterpriseJourneyforProgramConfidencePAULA.RODRIAN,SeniorProgramManager,LockheedMartinSpaceSystemsCompanyLockheed Martin (LM) selected the Portfolio Simulator tool for the NASA Orion program supply chain, and the LM Corporate modeling and simulation (M&S) strategy element evaluations. Our space experience over the past 50 years has given us exceptional expertise in all aspects of production and mission operations; however not all journeys are smooth. By leveraging the modeling & simulation capability, the integration of elements and conditions can occur to improve program performance. The understanding of demands, priorities, resource availability, and time factors including the potential “what-if” scenarios are key to successful operations by ensuring the “best” sequence of efforts occurs. For the supply chain, insight into the capability and risk to costs and schedule were of primary interest. For the LM Corporate M&S Strategy, the focus was on reflecting the effects of decisions that would influence the tactical implementation. In both cases, the tool application enabled setting expectations and making recommendations for the programs.

Navy Synchronization Toolset MIKE MACEDONIA, President, SASI Defense TechnologiesThe Navy Synchronization Toolset (NST) initiative is aimed at improving the U.S. Navy’s resource management capabilities through the synchronization of operational demand driver schedules for naval units/assets with maintenance and training schedules required by those units/assets. The initial focus of NST is aviation resource management where the highest level demand requirements are operational schedules for the Navy’s fleet of nuclear powered aircraft carriers. NST provides the infrastructure and fidelity to convert these high level operational demands into specific utilization projections for individual tactical aircraft, specifically the Department of the Navy’s F/A-18s. This capability will enable aviation resource providers to more efficiently manage the assignment, maintenance and modification of their assets. Furthermore, NST will more accurately project fleet-wide aviation inventory impacts resulting from scheduled operational and training patterns – a critical capability for managing the Navy’s fleet of aging aircraft in a constrained budgetary environment.

NST is funded by the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) and Commander Naval Air Forces (CNAF).

The Role of Simulation in Optimizing the Lung Cancer Treatment Process at the VA Pittsburgh Healthcare SystemROBERT MONTE, Director Veterans Engineering Resource Center, VA Pittsburgh Healthcare SystemThe VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System (VAPHS) Lung Cancer Collaborative Team successfully competed to become one of eighteen Veterans Health Administration (VHA) sites selected from a national pool of applicants to participate in the VHA National Cancer Care Collaborative in March 2009. The VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System Lung Cancer Team was chartered to improved the timeliness and reliability of lung cancer care for Veterans in the Veterans Integrated Service Network 4 (VISN 4). Through the use of LEAN/Six Sigma and simulation the team significantly reduced the time from detection to diagnosis and treatment and achieved a return on investment by December 2009.

The VAPHS Veterans Engineering Resource Center (VERC) built a computerized simulation model of the process and tested scenario modifications to resources, activities, and process (sequential vs. parallel) to optimize the lung cancer care treatment algorithm.

In 2010 The VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System (VAPHS) Lung Cancer Collaborative Team won the VHA National Systems Redesign Champion Clinical Award , Hospital Association of Pennsylvania Award and VHA Federal Executive Board Chairman’s Award. In 2011 the team was interviewed for an article to be published in US Medicine.

Simulation-Based Manpower Planning With Optimized Scheduling in aDistributed Multi-User EnvironmentMelanie De Grano, Advanced Analytics and Optimization, IBM Corporation The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staffs and operates over 450 airports in the US. TSA has been using simulation to determine staffing requirements since 2005 and has recently completed a refresh of their manpower planning and scheduling system. The objectives of the effort were to replace the GPSS simulation engine, scheduling optimizer, and user-interface (UI) to take advantage of current network-based systems technologies. The previous system was distributed to the 200+ users as a stand alone application. This presented maintenance, security, and performance issues, especially during the annual budgeting process. This presentation focuses on the creation and integration of the simulation engine which was required to replicate and improve on the existing model accuracy and performance. Additional considerations included providing TSA an easy-to-use simulation platform to maintain the simulation engine, make model logic changes and data edits, and expand the use of simulation technology within TSA.

Strategic Resource and Portfolio Planning at Panda Restaurant GroupLEONARDYIP,SeniorVPandChiefInformationOfficer, Panda Restaurant Group, Inc. IT project management is one of the most challenging areas in IT functional operation. It is estimated that most IT projects are delayed and 200% over-budget. Given the slower economy, delivering critical projects on time and within budget demonstrates the tremendous value that an IT organization can provide. Critical projects are those that drive revenues, promote efficiency and productivity, or satisfy compliance requirements. With the help of discreet event simulation in ProModel’s Portfolio Simulator, Leonard and his team were able to achieve more than 85% successful project delivery in the first year of its implementation. Leonard and his team will share how they did that by carefully selecting projects based on ROI, and forecasting resource utilization prior to the beginning of each year.

USArmyOfficerFlowModelLT. COL. PAUL KUCIK, GENE LESINSKI and JOHN PINTER, US Military AcademyA descriptive, discrete- event simulation was created in ProModel © to simulate the flow of newly commissioned Army officers from their commissioning source to their first unit of assignment. Specific focus is placed upon the Basic Officer Leadership (BOLC-B) training and required specialty training which is conducted between commissioning and arrival at the first unit. Using FY10’s officer cohort data, “what if” analysis is conducted by varying BOLC-B training capacities and allocation of training seats to determine the effects on BOLC-B wait time, time from commissioning to first unit of assignment, and when in the ARFORGEN cycle individuals arrive at their unit.

Using Simulation to Reduce Elective Surgical Patient Census Variability AbstractEVAN S. FIELDSTONDivision of General Pediatrics, The Children’s Hospital of PhiladelphiaThe Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, the first pediatric hospital in the United States, is ranked the #1 pediatric hospital by Parents magazine and is one of only eight on the prestigious U.S. News & World Report Honor Roll for 2010. As part of our commitment to providing safe and patient centered care, we launched an initiative to reduce over-crowding in critical areas such as our Pediatric ICU and surgical Patient units. Simulation was a key part of helping us understand the complex relationships among surgical block scheduling, variability in surgical lengths of stay, seasonal changes in surgical Patients, and dozens of other factors.

Exploring Cost and Readiness Relationships – Using Discrete Event Simulation to Power Rapid Insight ToolsPHIL A. FAHRINGER and HEATHER M. MILLERPrincipalOperationsResearcher/StaffOperationsResearcher,LockheedMartinCorporationHave you ever presented analysis to leaders only to have them ask “What about…?” for a case that wasn’t in the original assumptions? This talk will demonstrate how discrete event simulation using Process Simulator can be used to feed rapid insight tools for decision makers to enable them to rapidly explore the range of outcomes under alternate assumptions providing understanding of sensitivities and effective solutions. Specifically we will discuss how we have used process simulator to feed these tools for exploration of the relationships between cost and platform readiness over the platform lifecycle.

Capacity Modeling of a Dual Robot Photolithography Cluster Tool in the Semiconductor IndustryROLAND SCHELASIN, Modeling and Simulation Engineer, Texas InstrumentsSemiconductor wafer fabrication facilities are highly complex queuing networks with process flows consisting of hundreds of steps utilizing a wide array of sophisticated manufacturing equipment. Each piece of equipment itself incorporates multiple process steps. Static capacity and cycle time calculations can provide a sufficiently accurate prediction of factory equipment needs for production scenarios as long as equipment throughput is well understood. For serially processing equipment throughput can be calculated using a spreadsheet. However this methodology does not work for equipment types that process multiple steps and allow either reentrant process flows or parallel processing of multiple process flows with different recipes and/or step sequences. For such equipment types flexible simulation models can allow evaluation of configuration and process scenarios to more accurately determine throughput. This paper outlines the challenges associated with building a simulation model for a dual robot photo lithography cluster tool. Results from throughput improvement projects are presented.

MitigateRiskThroughPhasedDynamicSimulation ModelingJAMES E. HATCH and JORGE A. GUDINOStaff Manufacturing Engineer / Staff Research EngineerLockheedMartinAeronauticsCompanyMinimize risk in transitioning to a high-rate production system by utilizing dynamic discrete event simulation modeling. Enable enhanced decision making by providing predictive analysis capability in determining optimal phased production system requirements. Varying levels of risks are linked to this type of development, one of which is loss of production capacity, due to inefficiencies. Some contributing factors are schedule perturbations, inadequate availability of resources (equipment, labor, tools, etc.), material shortages, and process variation. Many of these result from unrealistic assumptions and/or poor planning models. Applying Modeling to Evaluate the Maintenance WorkFlowinaManufacturingFacilityJOSEPH CANCELARICH, Director of EngineeringPfizerGlobalEngineeringThe presentation will discuss how modeling has been applied to help communicate how organizational changes in the maintenance work flow in a manufacturing facility will improve operations and reduce costs. The planning and scheduling of maintenance activities has been found to be a large area for savings in improving maintenance costs and reliability within our manufacturing facilities, however it is difficult to communicate how these changes impact the operation and how they will improve the cost structure at a facility. Also communicate is an improved understanding of how variability and managing unplanned maintenance significantly impacts costs.

SCOTT MOORE and JAHAN TAHERIIndustrial Engineer/Systems Engineering Fellow, VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System

ATANU MUKHERJEE, M NDastur & Company

ROBERT DORSEYSenior Director of Process DevelopmentBumble Bee Foods

ROGELIO ENRIQUEZBARAJASEmerson Climate Technologies (Mexico)

JEFF BRUNOZZIVice President, Large Caliber Ammunition OperationsGeneral Dynamics, Ordnance and Tactical Systems

FARHAD ZAHEDIDirector of Industrial Placement, University of Salford, UK

KURT COLVINProfessorCal Poly, San Luis Obispo

TOM PEARSONData Analyst, Business TransformationFranciscan St. Francis Hospital

JOHNSON VARGHESEAssociate DirectorAnalytical LaboratoryMedImmune Inc.

SCOTT METLENProfessor, Production Operations Management University of Idaho

Why Attend? Learn from Industry ExpertsThe conference is loaded with presentations that will help you improve your business using simulation.

NetworkwithProfessionalsIncluding professionals from many industries, this conference offers a broad range of industry experience. Learn how others are using simulation to solve problems.

Share Ideas and Techniques with Other AttendeesWalk away with ideas and techniques that you can apply the minute you get back to the office.

EnhanceYourSkillsbyAttending One or More of Our Training CoursesMany of these courses are offered only at the conference and are a great value – giving you the knowledge you need to succeed with simulation.

Discover the Future of ProModel Products and ServicesSee the newest trends in the simulation technology industry and see a preview of the latest development efforts.

Academic CompetitionParticipate in the student competition; Network with leading professors and the brightest students.

Who should attend?Decision-makers in the manufacturing, logistics, government, Department of Defense, healthcare, pharmaceutical, and academic industries who would like to be able to make faster, more accurate decisions with a higher degree of confidence when it comes to complex strategic and mission critical issues.

Otherspeakersinclude:

Training

Day 1 - November 2nd

TWO DAY (November 2-3)

• Simulation Essentials• Advanced Simulation Concepts

ONE DAY (November 2)

• Enterprise Portfolio Simulator Basics • Process Simulator Basics• Real World Simulation Case Studies

HALF DAY (November 2)

• Flexible Modeling• Optimization Essentials• 3D Animator Essentials• ProModel Power Tools and Techniques

Day 2 - November 3rd

ONE DAY (November 3)

• Portfolio Simulator Basics• LEAN Six Sigma for Manufacturing

and Logistics• LEAN Six Sigma for Healthcare • ProModel Automation with Excel• Advanced Process Simulator Training

HALF DAY (November 3)

• Supply Chain Modeling• Simulation for the Manager and

DecisionMaker• Managing Simulation Projects

Preliminary AgendaConference Sessions

Sunday, October 30Leisure Activities 9:00am - 5:00pm Welcome Reception 6:00pm - 8:00pm

Monday, October 31Sessions 8:00am - 12:00pmLunch 12:00pm - 1:30pm Sessions 1:30pm - 5:00pmNetworking Reception 6:00pm - 8:00pm

Tuesday, November 1Sessions 8:00am - 12:00pmLunch 12:00pm - 1:30pm Sessions 1:30pm - 5:00pm

Training Courses

Wednesday, November 2Training 8:00am - 12:00pmLunch 12:00pm - 1:00pm Training 1:00pm - 5:00pm

Thursday, November 3Training 8:00am - 12:00pmLunch 12:00pm - 1:00pm Training 1:00pm - 5:00pm

Free ProModelConsulting SessionsSign up for one-on-one access to ProModel’s expert simulation consultants. Whether it’s current projects, discussing future projects, brainstorming on projects you’re only thinking about, or just to get more details on a conference topic, schedule your one hour long time block now because slots will go fast.

Accommodations & Travel Hyatt Regency Grand CypressOne Grand Cypress BlvdOrlando, FL 32836(407) 239-1234hyattregencygrandcypress.com

The conference will be held at the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress in Orlando, FL. This hotel is conveniently located just minutes from the Orlando airport (MCO) is across the street from Walt Disney World and Epcot® Center and is close to many other attractions. For more information, visit www.hyattregencygrandcypress.com/local-attractions Contact the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress directly at 888-421-1442 and specify that you are with ProModel to get the discounted rate. The hotel rate is $139 per night. You can also receive the discounted rate by making your reservation through our website, please visit www.promodel.com/solutionsconference/2011

Please reserve your accommodations soon, space is limited.

Contact InformationIf you have any questions, please email [email protected] call (801) 223-4601.

www.promodel.com

ActivitiesSunday Activities – October 30th

ProModel Golf Tournament $125Enjoy a day of golfing at the Grand Cypress Golf New Course. The New Course is Jack Nicklaus’ tribute and homage to the famed Old Course at St. Andrews, Scotland. Price is $125. Club rentals not included but available for an additional cost (pricing varies).

Kennedy Space Center $100Take a tour of the Kennedy Space Center and learn everything about our travels in space. This tour departs from Orlando and includes transportation as well as admission to the complex.

For further details about the Kennedy Space Center,visit kennedyspacecentertours.net.

Wednesday, November 2nd

LA NOUBA, Cirque du Soleil Show $87This evening performance is a renowned attraction in Downtown Disney.

For more information about the show, visit cirquedusoleil.com.

Conference-DiscountedParkPassesWaltDisneyWorldThemeParksConference special pricing is available for a variety of ticket options for you and your family at disneyconventionear.com/PMC.

UniversalStudiosThemeParkConference special pricing is available for a variety of ticket options for you and your family at universalorlando.com/convention.

Choose a 2-day class, or a combination of one-day and half-day classes:

Credit Cardo VISA o MASTERCARD o AMERICAN EXPRESS o DISCOVER

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Expiration Date MONTH DAY YEAR _____ / _____ / ______

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Please choose your conference package:

Conference Packages Standardo $1,495

Discount with Current Maintenance Contract o $795

License # ______________Promotional Code _________

Day 1 - Wednesday - November 2, 2011

Two Day — $1,600 o Simulation Essentialso Advanced Simulation Concepts

One Day — $800

o Enterprise Portfolio Simulator Basicso Process Simulator Basicso Real World Simulation Case Studies

Half Day AM — $400

o Flexible Modelingo 3D Animator Essentials

Half Day PM — $400

o Optimization Essentialso ProModel Power Tools and Techniques

Day 2 - Thursday - November 3, 2011

One Day — $800

o Portfolio Simulator Basicso LEAN Six Sigma for Manufacturing & Logisticso ProModel Automation with Excelo Advanced Process Simulatoro LEAN Six Sigma for Healthcare

Half Day AM — $400

o Simulation for the Manager and Decision Maker o Supply Chain Modeling

Half Day PM — $400

o Managing Simulation Projects

Choose a 2-day class, or a combination of one-day and half-day classes:

Shirt Size o WOMENS o MENS o S o M o L o XL o XXL o XXXL

To register, please fax this form to: (801) 226.6046, or visit our online store: www.promodel.com

Register

o Golf $125 Club rentals: right_____ left______ Attendees____

Price does not include rentals (additional cost, pricing varies).

o Kennedy Space Center $100 Attendees____

o LA NOUBA, Cirque du Soleil $87 Attendees____

o Walt Disney World Theme Parks Prices vary. To purchase tickets visit www.disneyconventionear.com/PMC

o Universal Studios Theme Parks Prices vary. To purchase tickets visit www.universalorlando.com/convention

o Free one-hour session with ProModel consultant

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