predictive and prescriptive maintenance€¦ · our software solution presentation of the synapse...

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Alessio Bonfietti, CEO Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance

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Page 1: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Alessio Bonfietti, CEO

Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance

Page 2: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

OutlineA summary for this presentation

Maintenance ProgramsOverview of the most adopted

maintenance programs

Prediction/Prescription AnalyticsWhat is Prediction/Prescription

Analytic and why it is important

Page 3: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use CasesDescription of use cases applied in the

energy and automatic machines sectors

Our Software SolutionPresentation of the Synapse

Maintenance Suite

Our TeamBrief presentation of the team and its

awards.

Our PortfolioOverview of our main past and

current projects

Page 4: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Maintenance Expenses

Maintenance expenses are almost as big a part of a building’s budget as energy costs.Maintenance costs consume nearly as much of a typical

facility’s operating budget as utility costs and amount to more

than one-third of the total operating expenses.

35%

38%

27%

Maintenance Utilities Janitorial

Page 5: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Failures:• Unexpected breakdowns

• Unplanned downtime

• Production loss

• Secondary failures

• Inefficient use of the staff resources

• Unneeded maintenance.

Failure Expenses

Page 6: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Maintenance Programs Adoption

55%Reactive

31%Preventive

12%Predictive

Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Survey 2014

“Too many companies inaccurately think that maintenance consists solelyof waiting for an asset to go down, and then fixing or replacing it.”

Reid Paquin, Research Analyst,Manufacturing and Product Innovation & Engineering (PIE)

Page 7: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Reactive Maintenance

“Referring to reactive maintenance as ‘maintenance’ is a

misnomer; it should really just be called ‘repair.’”

55%Reactive

Advantages• Low cost

• Less staff

Disadvantages• Frequent unplanned downtime of equipment.

• Increased labor cost, especially if overtime is needed.

• Cost involved with repair or replacement of equipment.

• Possible secondary equipment or process damage from

equipment failure.

• Inefficient use of staff resources

Page 8: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

31%Preventive

Preventive Maintenance

Advantages• Flexibility allows for the adjustment of maintenance

periodicity.

• Increased component life cycle

• Estimated 12-18% costs savings over reactive programs

Disadvantages• Unplanned downtime of equipment.

• Unneeded Maintenance.

• Labour Intensive

Page 9: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

12%Predictive

Predictive Maintenance

Advantages• Increased component operational life/availability.

• Decrease in equipment or process downtime.

• Decrease in costs for parts and labor.

• Estimated 30-40% costs savings over reactive programs

Disadvantages• Increased investment in diagnostic equipment.

• Increased investment in staff training.

Page 10: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Maintenance Programs Costs in Power Generation

Piotrowski, J., Pro-Active Maintenance for Pumps

$13

$9

$18 Reactive

usd/hp p.a.

Preventive

usd/hp p.a.

Predictive

usd/hp p.a.

Page 11: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Predictive Maintenance

75% Breakdown reduction

A well-orchestrated predictive

maintenance program tends to

eliminate the equipment failures.

45% Downtime reduction

30% Maintenance cost reduction

25% Production increase

A predictive maintenance program

reduces the downtime of the

devices.

Surveys show that in some specific

areas, the savings can be even 10X

return on investment

The reduction of the failures implies

the increase in production

continuity

Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Survey 2014

Page 12: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Human intervention in decisions

Source: Gartner 2013

Page 13: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Industrial adoption of data analytics

Source: SAP

Page 14: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

interactive�prescriptive

analytics

Batch�prescriptive

analytics

data visualization

Predictive analytics

data streams

Near real-time processing distributed DBMS (noSQL)

PLANT DATA

ASSET MGT PREMISEDATA WH

WEATHERDEMAND

Page 15: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault PredictionData streams

• coming from 120 sensors sampled every 20 seconds

Data preprocessing

• Divided per machine average/variance per minute/hour

Using Predictive Maintenance to Approach Zero Downtime

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Page 16: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault Prediction

Predicts: • Time to fault/probability of fault• Which sensors are representative

Using Predictive Maintenance to Approach Zero Downtime

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Raw sensor data stream

Billions of rows – low data density

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Time series data stream

Look-back period Step size

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Figure: Survey SAP on predictive maintainance

Page 17: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault Prediction

There are Machine Learning methods that enable to identify the most representative values

Machine Learning Classification/Regression

Decision trees/random forests• Attribute values: sensors and sensor values• Class: fault/no-fault• Decision trees identify the most informative sensors• Sometimes low accuracy

Page 18: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault PredictionDeep Learning can Help!

Auto-encoders are neural networks that learn a representation of the input and is able to reconstruct it

Input Output

Encode Decode

Figure: http://www.asimovinstitute.org/neural-network-zoo/

Page 19: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault PredictionAuto-encoders

Number of hidden units lower than input features

• Feature selection• Dimensionality reduction

Number of hidden units larger than input features • Parameter induced sparsity• Discover non-linear relations in data that are not easily captured by

statistical methods

Page 20: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault PredictionDeep Learning can Help!

InputSensors Data

Encode

Compared to ML method using average and variance on a time windows

10-20% Accuracy improvement

Page 21: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Use Case: Fault Prediction

Beside predictions, we need an optimization component being able to exploit predictions to

• OPTIMALLY PLAN MAINTENANCE INTERVENTION

• DEFINE OPTIMAL PRODUCTION/MAINTENANCE PLANS

• DEFINE MAINTAINANCE CREWS SHIFTS

• DEFINE OPTIMAL OPERATIONS CONDITIONS TO DECREASE FAULT PROBABILITIES

Page 22: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

PLANT DATAStatic data on plant config.

Asset Mgt

TEMPORAL SERIESProduction data

per component/plant

HISTORICAL MAINTAINANCE

DATAProcesses/costs/

Time/loss

MARKET DATADemand/

Energy cost Predictions

DATA LAYER

FAILURE MODEL For plant/componentTemporal model for failureprediction with confidence levels

COST MODELFor plant/componentFunction that links intervention plan with corresponding cost

PRODUCTION MODELFor plant/componentFunction that links intervention plan with production losses

Machine Learning Machine Learning Machine Learning

MARKET MODELDemand profileCost of energy

OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONSMaintenance costsBreakdownsDowntime Production

Model Integration

Stochastic Multi-Criteria Optimization Model

SOLVING COMPONENT

OUTPUTMAINTAINANCEPLANS

MAINTAINANCEPLANSVISUALIZATION

BDSS

Page 23: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

Proprietary AI Based Framework

The Synapse Maintenance Suite

Synapse

SYNAPSE MONITORING SYSTEM

SYNAPSE INTELLIGENT SCHEDULER

SYNAPSE PREDICTION ENGINE

Real Time Anomaly Detection

Failures Prediction

Maintenance and Production Plan

Page 24: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

The Synapse Maintenance Suite

Anomaly Detection

Predict failures Optimal maintenance

and production plan

Sensors

SYNAPSE MONITORING SYSTEM

SYNAPSE PREDICTION ENGINE

SYNAPSE INTELLIGENT SCHEDULER

Page 25: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

The Team

Alessio BonfiettiCo-founder,

CEO

Federico CaselliCo-founder,

Project Manager

Raffaele IannielloCo-founder,

CTO

Michele LombardiCo-founder

Michela MilanoCo-founder

PhD Computer Engineering Computer Engineering Computer Engineering Assistant Professor Full Professor

Alessandro BosiStakeholder,

Chairman

Entrepreneur, Engineer

Page 26: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

The Team

Expertise:1 Research Grant and 1 Award from

Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Combinatorial Optimization, Distributed Systems

Team creation: 2008

Grants:

Awards:1 Best Italian AI Researcher Award

2 Best Italian PhD Thesis in Artificial Intelligence

Page 27: Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance€¦ · Our Software Solution Presentation of the Synapse MaintenanceSuite Our Team Brief presentationof the team and its awards. Our Portfolio

It is time to change the world of industrial maintenance

with (Artificial) Intelligence