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Use this title slide only with an image Predictive Quality Management Optimize manufacturing operations with SAP Predictive Analytics and SAP HANA Public

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Page 1: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

Use this title slide only with an image

Predictive Quality Management Optimize manufacturing operations with SAP Predictive Analytics and SAP HANA

Public

Page 2: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

©  2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2 Internal

Predictive Analytics: Typical use cases

q  Prospect

q  Cross-sell & Up-sell

q  Churn

Marketing

q  Credit risk

q  Insurance risk

q  Fraud

Finance

q  Predictive Maintenance

q  Warranty Analysis

q  Demand forecast

Industry

Page 3: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

©  2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 3 Internal

q  Customers q  Products q  Transactions q  Equipments

q  Appetency q  Risk q  Fraud

q  Marketing q  Finance q  Maintenance

Historical data Typical and recurrent behaviors Predict and act

Predictive Analytics concepts

Page 4: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

LEVERAGE DATA FOR CONTINUOUS PROCESS IMPROVEMENT

Get the Data Securely connecting potentially millions of devices/sensors to a

central place, collecting enormous amounts of data

Automate Actions Provide platform to create and run

value-added applications, integrated with all IT assets

Insight from Data Enable real-time analysis of vast

amount of data applying consistent predictive algorithms

leveraging sensor and other structured and unstructured data

SENSE All relevant variables (temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.)

2_1 2_2

2_3

INTEGRATE Integrate captured data (like image recognition) plus IT data

ANALYZE Automated analysis of error patterns PREDICT

Real-time prediction of quality results

IMPROVE Incorporate insights into production process

Page 5: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

COLLECTING AND MONITORING SENSOR DATA

Streaming data collected every second from sensors

SAP HANA real-time data

platform

SAP BI real-time

dashboards

Position

Vibration

Temperature

Pressure

Humidity

10101010101 01000101001 10010110110

1. Sensors measure activity indicators every second

2. Sensor data is collected and stored in real-time into the SAP HANA platform

3. Users can monitor sensor activity in real-time using SAP BI Dashboard

4. Big Data produced by sensors can be archived into low-price Hadoop

Page 6: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

BUILDING MODELS FROM SENSOR DATA

SAP HANA real-time data platform

SAP Hana Predictive Libraries

SAP Predictive Analytics

1. Data scientists transform IoT raw data into analytical data with SAP Predictive Analytics Data Manager

2. They can easily access to Hadoop historical data and merge it with HANA data using SAP HANA Smart Data Access

3. SAP Predictive Analytics Modeler leverages SAP HANA Predictive libraries and SAP Spark Predictive libraries to avoid data duplication and enable in-memory model training

Data scientist SAP Spark Predictive Libraries

Page 7: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

REAL TIME PREDICTIONS WITH SAP HANA

Streaming data collected every second from sensors

Position

Vibration

Temperature

Pressure

Humidity

10101010101 01000101001

1.  SAP Predictive models are deployed into the HANA streaming process

2.  They will predict events such as potential upcoming failures in real-time

3.  Alerts can be raised and sent to business users through various channels

Predictive Models

SAP Mobility

SAP HANA real-time data

platform

SAP BI real-time

dashboards

Page 8: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

SAP Digital ManufacturingValue Creation through Digitization

Eric ThierenEMEA Solution Sales FBS, Manufacturing Industries

Page 9: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2Internal

Trends Impacting Digital ManufacturingDigital transformation in the extended supply chain

Sharing EconomyBusiness Network

Resource ScarcitySustainability

DesignRe

spon

dEnd-to-EndVisibility

Customers &Markets

Suppliers &Logistics

Products &Assets

People &Resources

Individualized ProductsIndustry 4.0

Customer CentricityOmni-Channel

Page 10: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 3Internal

Connecting Things with People and ProcessesSAP Leonardo Innovation Portfolio

Page 11: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 4Internal

SAP Digital Manufacturing is ConnectedEnd-to-End Business Process and Business Partner Integration

Seamlessly Integrated Business Processes: Top 5 Scenarios

• Top Floor to Shop Floor

Live response in production planning and scheduling for high flexibility with lastminute demand changes

Manufacturing execution & orchestration of the automation layer in lot size of 1

• Machine-to-Machine communication

• E-Commerce integration: Sales order entry with configuration andpersonalization for individualized products

• Machine Cloud integration

• Direct replenishment, Outsourcing

Insight-to-Action based on machine & business data for high transparency

ServiceProvider

E-CommerceConsumer/Customer

MachineCloud

ERP

SAP ManufacturingExecution Suite

Supplier

Top Floor

Shop Floor

1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

5

4

34BusinessNetworks

Page 12: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 5Internal

Digital Manufacturing InsightsInsights to Action @ All Levels

CxO

Supervisors

Review Revenue, Cost, Delivery Performance, Quality &Customer satisfaction across manufacturing plants and takedecisions

KPI Score Card

Monitor and Analyze Manufacturing Performance

real time production insights and expedited actions

Continuous improvement

Real time visibility of manufacturing

Drive improvement with insight to action toimprove core KPI’s

Flexibility to untether from the desk

Key PerformanceIndicators

ManufacturingPerformance

Indicators

ManufacturingActivity Indicators

PeopleQuality Cost Delivery

Planned Innovation

Operators

Devices and Machines

Safety

Guidance &Real-timefeedback

Automation &PredictiveAnalytics

Clear and consistent guidance

Real-time feedback

Reduced operator burden of non-value adding tasks

Automation of data

Better information

Device to Enterpriseconnectivity

Plant &Unit Heads

Page 13: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing
Page 14: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 7Internal

Industry 4.0Digitization has big pay back

PerformanceCost -7%Net Margin + 19%Dividend +25%Share Repurchase >2.5MMDemand +40%From 21 day schedule to 6 hour

Page 15: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 8Internal

Industry 4.0 in Paper ProductionReal Time Costing – Energy Management

Page 16: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 9Internal

Digital Operations in Glass MakingReal time visibility across the value chain

Architectural glassMonitor raw material, through batching, float glass and finishingMaterials monitoring for qualityEnergy analysisEmbedded solar panels create IOT opportunity

Page 17: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 10Internal

Packaging and Palletizing AutomationPallet Labeling Provides High Return on Investment

Page 18: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.

Thank youContact information:

Eric ThierenFocused Business Solutions Sales, EMEA,Discrete [email protected]+32499513726

Page 19: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

Philippe Nemery, SAP BeLux

Bi and Predictive Presales - Presales Manager Platform Solutions Group

Predictive Quality ManagementCustomer References.

Page 20: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

4INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Page 21: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

5INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Koehler Paper Group

Koehler Paper Group – one of the very fewindependent and family owned papergroups in Europe

7 paper machines and 1 board machine at 4 locations

• Sales Volume 2014: 500.000 t

• Sales Value 2014: 650 Mio. €

• Employees 2014: 1.694

Papierfabrik August Koehler SE

Oberkirch

Koehler Kehl GmbH

The company is a producer of high-quality special papers.

Page 22: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

6INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Page 23: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

7INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Predictive Models for Production Quality ParametersProject Overview

Goals

Reduce time-to-quality on product switchover

Monitor and guarantee quality standards continuously

instead of through one lab measurement at the end

Understand and verify central drivers for quality

parameters

Approach

Pilot phase: built predictive models for 6 fundamental

quality parameters using SAP PA

Usage of type-blending models to overcome small

training data sizes and adaptation to first-time

materials

Model export to SAP HANA DB for real-time

prediction of quality parameter

Challenges

Few training data due to relatively expensive lab tests

for ground truth

Large variety of materials with different quality goals

Data from waste production is not recorded (lack of

variance in training data)

Outcome

Model evaluation phase indicated sound reliability of

quality predictions for regularly produced products

Correlation analysis confirmed production expert’s

conjectures about quality drivers

Bias of one hardware sensor detected

Software training to enable continuing model

improvements by customer using newly available data

Page 24: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

8INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Predictive Models for Production Quality ParametersModel Performance

Average Model fit (blue)

to validation data (green)

Typical model variance

(1 sigma area)

Model prediction (red)

vs. lab results (blue)

Model performance assessment

PA model built for each quality parameter based on training

set with ~500 samples

Model validation showed typical model variance well within

acceptable tolerances for all relevant parameters (top chart)

Implementation of predictive models in SAP HANA for real-

time quality prediction

Model evaluation phase for ~1 month showed sound match

with lab results (right chart)

Page 25: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

9INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Predictive Quality: Paper Producer

Benefits

• Reduce waste and rework

• Faster “Time-to-Quality” for small lot sizes and first time materials

• Superior product quality

• Detailed automated quality documentation

Process Innovation

Data Selection

Visualization

Statistical Analysis

Expert Review Step-by-

step root

cause

analysis

“Predictive Quality means we calculate in real-time what the quality of the product that is currently in production will be.”

Page 26: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

10INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Page 27: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

11INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Devices

BO Dashboards

External

DataFinancial,

Sales

Big Data Lake Training of Predictive Models

SDS

Triggering of alarms/actions

based on predictive models

SDS: Smart Data Streaming

SDI - SDQ

Hana Vora

Kafka &

Zookeeper

Real Time

Gateway

System

Real-time Stream

Analysis

Visual

Exploration

SAP HANA

Platform

HDFS SparkHIVE

Page 28: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

16INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

© SAP 2009 / Page 16

Predictive Analytics InsightsFocus on a single Predictive Analytics Use Case that is

time-boxed for rapid delivery and directional insights (2) weeks

Design and pilot deployment:

(4-6) weeksData Science Solution Design and

pilot Deployment

Data Science Production

Iterations & Customer

Enablement

Deploy

Increment 1

Go or no-

go decision

Predictive analytics

(PA) Go or no-go

decision

Predictive Process: from test and pilot to deploymentData Science team

Deploy

Increment 2

Deploy

Increment 3

Deploy

Increment n

(8-12)

weeks

Page 29: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

17INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Predictive Team

Strategic Manager

o Defines the business strategy.

o Subject-matter expert.

o Judges the value and the ROI.

(Citizen) Data Scientist

o Creates the data sets.

o Creates quality models.

o Keeps models up-to-date.

Business Requirements

Line of Business

Predictive Project Team

Business-Relevant Insights

IT Support

IT Operations

o Give (Access to) Data

o Installs products

o Manages security

Support

Page 30: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

18INTERNAL© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ

Predictive Team

Strategic Manager

o Defines the business strategy.

o Subject-matter expert.

o Judges the value and the ROI.

(Citizen) Data Scientist

o Creates the data sets.

o Creates quality models.

o Keeps models up-to-date.

Operational Decision Maker

o Consumes the information.

o Perform recommended actions.

Data Architect

o Federates the data sources.

o Builds data models.

o Integrates model-generated data.

Project Lead

o Drives the predictive project.

o Orchestrates the different roles.

o Make sure of the business value.

Developer

o Integrates the predictive project results in front-ends, applications, or business-intelligence reports.

Business Requirements

Line of Business

Predictive Project Team

Business-Relevant Insights

IT Support

IT Operations

o Operates servers

o Installs products

o Manages security

Database Admins

o Manages databases

o Defines access rights

Support

Page 31: Predictive Quality Management - SAP Eventssapevents.be/AnalyticsBriefings/presentations/SAP_PQM.pdf · Typical use cases q Prospect q ... Customer Machine Cloud ERP SAP Manufacturing

Thank you.

Contact information:

Philippe Nemery

[email protected]