predictive services · 2020-08-01 · valid for july 16 - october 31, 2020 released july 16 depicts...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Predictive Services
Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook
Thursday October 1st 2020
![Page 2: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Temperature for September 2020
Observed in SepTemp Outlook for Sep
Characterization: The entire western
United States was warmer than
typical in September.
![Page 3: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Rainfall for September 2020
Observed in Sep
Characterization: Most of the west
side wetter than typical. Most of the
east side much drier than typical.
Rainfall Outlook for Sep
![Page 4: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Lightning Strike Counts for Oregon/Washington
Sept Biggest Day:18th-19th
1294 strikes
SEPTEMBER 202O
2628 strikes32% of normal
![Page 5: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Lightning Strike Counts for Oregon/Washington
21,171 strikes31% of normal
Jun-Sep 2020
![Page 6: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Fires 2020
Avg: 1,432 fires
2020: 1,533 fires
Avg: 2,133 fires
2020: 1,808 fires
![Page 7: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Avg: 320,469 ac
2020: 823,094 ac
Avg: 558,725 ac
2020: 1,074,429 ac
Acres 2020
![Page 8: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Avg: 3,568 fires
2020: 3,341 fires
Fires 2020
![Page 9: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Avg: 880,446 ac
2020: 1,897,523 ac
Acres 2020
![Page 10: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
U.S. Drought Monitor
![Page 11: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Energy Release Component
1000hr dead fuels
National Fire Danger Rating System: Sep 30th
![Page 13: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Energy Release Component – OR/WA
National Fire Danger Rating System: Sep 30th
![Page 14: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
October 2020 Outlook
Temperature Outlook Rainfall Outlook
![Page 15: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
September 10th Synopsis: La Niña
conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
ENSO Status: La Niña Advisory
![Page 16: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Climate Risks during a La Niña:
October through December
Temperature Precipitation
![Page 17: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Temperature Outlook Rainfall Outlook
Nov 2020 – Jan 2021 Outlook
![Page 18: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Nov Large Fire Outlook
Dec Large Fire Outlook Jan Large Fire Outlook
Oct Large Fire Outlook
![Page 19: Predictive Services · 2020-08-01 · Valid for July 16 - October 31, 2020 Released July 16 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by shon-](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050503/5f9532be8e05dc22767a1fe9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Next Outlook:
Around November 2nd 2020