Preferences of decision makers for criteria around selection of foot-and-mouth disease

control strategies

EuTteum Kim

Tim Carpenter, Sarah Rosanowski, Mark Stevenson and Naomi Cogger

The EpiCentre

Foot-and-mouth disease

• Relative importance of factors in choosing Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) control strategies– Survey representative of Chief veterinary officers from

21 countries in Asia and Pacific regions

– Determine if there are differences in preferences by FMD status of country

• FMD positive =12 • FMD-free =9

Goal of study

• Questionnaire– Epidemiological, Economics, and Social-environmental criteria– 6 indicators for each criterion

• Epidemiologic criterion– Duration of outbreak– Size of outbreak area– Number of infected farms(IP) / animals(IA)– Number of depopulated farms(DP) / animals(DA)

Questionnaire

• Economic criterion– Direct operating cost of FMD control measures(eg. vaccination)– Farm loss from the amount of depopulated animals– Farm loss from movement restriction– Industry loss from the amount of depopulated animals– Loss from export ban– Loss from tourism decrease

• Social-Environmental criterion– Mental health in FMD affected farmers– Mental health in the public– Welfare of the infected / non-infected animals– Air / ground pollution from carcass disposal

Questionnaire

Questionnaire example

Result

Criteria FMD Status Minimum Median Maximum p-value

Epidemiologic Positive 80 90 100 0.26

Free  50 95 100  

Overall 50 90 100  

         

Economic Positive 50 80 95 0.04

Free 40 95 100  

Overall 40 85 100  

         

Social-environmental Positive 25 61 80 0.13

Free 30 80 98  

Overall 25 80 98  

Table 1. The relative importance scores of criteria for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategy

Figure 1. The relative importance scores of epidemic indicators in the epidemiologic criterion for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategy

Epidemicduration

Outbreakarea size

No. ofinf. farms

No. ofinf. animals

No. ofdep. farms

No. ofdep. animals

Figure 2. The relative importance scores of economic indicators in the epidemiologic criterion for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategy

Operationcost

Farm loss fromdepopulation

Farm loos frommov. restriction

Industry loss from depopulation

Loss from export ban

Loss from tourism decrease

Figure 3. The relative importance scores of social indicators in the epidemiologic criterion for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategy

Farmer mental health

Publicmental health

Welfare ofinf. animals

Welfare of non-inf.animals

Air pollution Ground pollution

Criteria/Indicators Overall FMD positive FMD freeEpidemiologic criterion      

FMD outbreak size 1 3 2Duration of FMD 2 1 1No. of infected farms 3 2 3No. of infected animals 4 4 4No. of depopulated farms 5 5 4Number of depopulated animals 6 6 6

Economic criterion      Cost of control measures 1 1 2Farm loss from movement restriction 2 3 3Farm loss from depopulation 3 2 4Industry loss from movement restriction 3 4 1Export loss 5 5 5Tourism decrease 6 6 6

Social-environmental criterion      Mental health of affected farmers 1 1 3Mental health of the public 2 2 4Welfare of infected animals 2 3 4Welfare of non-infected animals 4 4 5Air pollution 4 6 2Ground pollution 4 5 1

Table 2. The rank of indicators for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)

control strategy

• Epidemiological criterion was regarded as the most important

• Relative importance of economic criterion was differed according to the FMD status

• FMD status of country is an important factor to understand the background of decision making about control strategy

• The results of this study could be used in decision analysis of FMD control strategy

Conclusion

Thank you

The EpiCentre