Dushanbe - 2015

Preliminary results of «National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period

to 2015 (NDS)»

Session of National development council under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

1

NDS- the main strategic document

• initiated by President of the Republic of Tajikistan and approved by Parliament (from June, 28 2007 № 704).

•defines the priorities and the general directions of State policy. It is addressed to achievement of sustainable economic growth, access of population to basic social services and reduction of poverty.

•basis for elaboration of PRS, LSIS and others sectoraland regional strategies.

2

NDS priorities

1. Public administration reform;

2. Private sector development and attraction of investments ;

3. Development of human potential .

3

Core structural elements of NDS(Core chapters of NDS)

3 interconnected sectorial chapters

•Creating institutional conditions for development•Ensuring economic growth•Creating of the human capital

Each section includes:

•The system of prioritized directions and objectives•The expected results•Targets

4

Uniqueness of NDS

Difference of NDS from other programs and strategies:• long-term vision of social and economic development;•based on Millennium Development Goals (MDG);•Comprehensive program for the implementation of the

reforms but not actions only;•application of scenario approach – 3 version;• consideration of sector problems as a single completed

system;•Development of mainstreaming topics (for example

Public administration reform passes through all blocks);•Constant monitoring of NDS implementation through

monitoring of mid terms strategies. 5

Main goals of the

preliminary report\results of

NDS

•Presentation of preliminary conclusions on implementation of NDS;

•To define the status of achievement through:• target indicators, • the expected results and • the prioritized objectives consisting from important actions.

•to ensure of constant process for strategic planning;

•to define objectives which can be achieved during 2015 and the state bodies actions against their implementation.

6

The process of review of NDS

•Conducted national consultations (28 focus groups on all NDS directions):•On national level - 6 FG•On sectorial level – 12 FG•On regional level – 10 FG

•Involvement of all stakeholders;

•Use of all available methods of preparation.

7

Mid-term strategies as a core tool for implementation of NDS

•Intermediate monitoring of NDS conducted through preparation of reports on the implementation of mid-term strategies.

•Financing of NDS ensured through provision of resource to mid-term strategies.

8

Financing of NDS

9

Total amount – 122 152,3 mln. Somoni

- 27 345,3 mln. USD

5968.08445.0

11344.313860.3

18621.719786.4

25744.8

18381.8

1733.6 2462.9 2738.5 3165.2 4039.8 4154.45403.8

3647.2

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

30000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PRS 2007-2009 PRS 2010-2012 LSIS 2013-2015

mln. Somoni mln. USD

Main Results

(by 01.01.2015)

•Number of the reached target indicators –57,1% (20 of 35)

•Quantity of the expected and significantreached results– 77,3% (41 of 53)

•Quantity of prioritized objectives, on thosebasis is observed intermediate or higherprogress – 72,9% (113 of 155)

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Achievements of Functional block

• Poverty Reduction

11

64

5046.7 45

4138.2

35.632

64

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fact Target

Achievements of Functional block

• Growing GDP on 2006 prices in compare with NDS Scenario

12

1.11.1

1.21.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

in t

imes

: co

mp

are

wit

h b

asis

yea

r (2

00

5)

Fact

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Achievements of Functional block

• Decreasing of the inflation rate

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Fact

Achievements of Functional block

• Reduction of the public external debt to GDP

14

39

30.6 30.126.6

34.0 34.4 32.628.6

25.722.5 21.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Fact

Achievements of economic block

• Growth of investments in the transport sector (mln. USD)

83.9 83.9119.8 148.6

206.9251.9

521.1

670.7

1037.5

1159

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

15

Achievements of economic block

Growth of volumes of international transit of goods & Road construction

16

430.2

800.5908

1353.3

386.5 447.6

1632.61790

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2005 2008 2010 2014

Growth of volumes of international

transit of goods (thousand ton)

Road construction (km)

Achievements of social block

• Infant mortality up to 1 years old (Per 1000 born alive)

17

MoH MICS MDS

Achievements of social block

• Mortality of children under 5 years old (Per 1000 born alive)

18

MoH MICS MDS MDG

Achievements of social block

• Malaria rates is practically zero (per 100 000 of

population)

19

37.4

16.8

8.8

4.32.1 1.4

0.1 0.4 0.1

37.4

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Воќеї Њадаф Fact Target

Conclusions and Recommendations

1. Still there are opportunity for improvement of execution ofseparate prioritized objectives.

2. There are objectives which status of execution was lowbecause of non-performance only of one action. Adoption ofthe relevant normative legal document in such cases will leadto increase of the status of execution of a priority task.

3. A number of target indicators and the expected results isvery close to achievement. Perhaps, it is necessary to acceptthe separate plans of measures in 2015 which will lead totheir final achievement.

4. In some cases has provided incorrect information or it hasnot provided completely. In such cases the strengthening thesystem of monitoring in appropriate authorities will allow tostrengthen control of execution of reforms of NDS and by theend of 2015 to specify all necessary conditions of itsexecution.

20

Further steps

•To set steps on implementation of number ofunperformed objectives

•To summarize the review of NDS, in accordancewith achievements of 2015

•To start up the process of formulation of newstrategy of development,

•New strategy should take into account issuesregarding transition to new Sustainable developmentGoals (SDG) after 2015,

•Development of new vision should take into accountthe process of the strategic planning on the base ofwide participation of all parties concerned.

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Final conclusion

Results of the preliminary review show that

• NDS - the main strategic document which formulated the mainagenda of large-scale reforms in the country over the last 10 years.

• NDS leads reforms at all levels of public administration bothsectorial, and territorial.

• NDS - new approach to creation of system of national developmenton the basis of accurate construction down all strategic documents,programs and plans and creation corresponding. It shows an exampleof dialogue of society and power,

• The system of strategic planning installed by NDS showed theeffectiveness. At it there are all basic elements which are improvedin process of development and acceptance of PRS.

• NDS is a unique document, it is completely constructed on theMillennium Development Goals.

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T h a n k s!

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