preliminary seasonal assessment of resource adequacy for the ercot region, summer 2015

17
1 of 17 Release Date: March 2, 2015 PRELIMINARY Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region Summer 2015 SUMMARY The ERCOT Region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve forecasted peak demands in the upcoming summer season (June - September 2015). For the summer season, expected new capacity additions include the natural gas fired Goldsmith Peaker project with a summer rating of 294 MW, as well as 346 MW of summer peak wind capacity. This peak wind capacity was derived by applying new summer peak capacity percentages approved by the ERCOT Board of Directors in October 2014: 12 percent for non-coastal resources and 56 percent for coastal resources. Notable capacity reductions include the three R.W. Miller gas-fired steam units (summer capacity rating of 403 MW), which are now on extended outage due to lack of cooling water. Based on ERCOT's drought risk analysis, no other changes to unit capacities due to drought conditions are anticipated or reflected in the summer assessment at this time. ERCOT will continue to monitor the potential effect of drought conditions on generation capacity. Additionally, capacity for the Notrees Battery Storage facility was changed from 34 MW to zero MW because the facility provides regulation reserves in the Ancillary Services market and is not available to deliver energy on a sustained hourly basis. This SARA report includes a forecast of 2,689 MW of unit outages, based on historical outage data since the start of the Texas Nodal Market in December 2010. At this time, ERCOT does not anticipate changes to available generation capacity for the summer season due to compliance with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) or Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). CSAPR came into effect on January 1, 2015, and the compliance deadline for the MATS rule for units that have not received compliance extensions is April 15, 2015. ERCOT continues to monitor implementation and consults with generation resource owners on their compliance plans for CSAPR, MATS and other environmental regulations.

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1 of 17

Release Date: March 2, 2015

PRELIMINARY Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region

Summer 2015

SUMMARY The ERCOT Region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve forecasted peak demands in the upcoming summer season (June - September 2015). For the summer season, expected new capacity additions include the natural gas fired Goldsmith Peaker project with a summer rating of 294 MW, as well as 346 MW of summer peak wind capacity. This peak wind capacity was derived by applying new summer peak capacity percentages approved by the ERCOT Board of Directors in October 2014: 12 percent for non-coastal resources and 56 percent for coastal resources. Notable capacity reductions include the three R.W. Miller gas-fired steam units (summer capacity rating of 403 MW), which are now on extended outage due to lack of cooling water. Based on ERCOT's drought risk analysis, no other changes to unit capacities due to drought conditions are anticipated or reflected in the summer assessment at this time. ERCOT will continue to monitor the potential effect of drought conditions on generation capacity. Additionally, capacity for the Notrees Battery Storage facility was changed from 34 MW to zero MW because the facility provides regulation reserves in the Ancillary Services market and is not available to deliver energy on a sustained hourly basis. This SARA report includes a forecast of 2,689 MW of unit outages, based on historical outage data since the start of the Texas Nodal Market in December 2010. At this time, ERCOT does not anticipate changes to available generation capacity for the summer season due to compliance with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) or Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). CSAPR came into effect on January 1, 2015, and the compliance deadline for the MATS rule for units that have not received compliance extensions is April 15, 2015. ERCOT continues to monitor implementation and consults with generation resource owners on their compliance plans for CSAPR, MATS and other environmental regulations.

2 of

17

Ope

ratio

nal R

esou

rces

(exc

ludi

ng w

ind)

, MW

64

,260

Bas

ed o

n cu

rren

t Sea

sona

l Max

imum

Sus

tain

able

Lim

its re

port

ed th

roug

h th

e un

it re

gist

ratio

n pr

oces

sSw

itcha

ble

Capa

city

Tot

al, M

W3,

496

Ins

talle

d ca

paci

ty o

f uni

ts th

at c

an in

terc

onne

ct w

ith o

ther

Reg

ions

and

are

ava

ilabl

e to

ERC

OT

less

Sw

itcha

ble

Capa

city

Una

vaila

ble

to E

RCO

T, M

W(4

70)

Bas

ed o

n su

rvey

resp

onse

s of S

witc

habl

e Re

sour

ce o

wne

rsM

othb

all R

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rces

, MW

1,93

3 B

ased

on

seas

onal

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hbal

l uni

ts p

lus P

roba

bilit

y of

Ret

urn

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onse

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othb

all R

esou

rce

owne

rsPr

ivat

e U

se N

etw

ork

Capa

city

Con

trib

utio

n, M

W4,

344

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rage

cap

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ty o

f the

top

20 h

ours

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ons f

or th

e pa

st th

ree

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n of

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d Re

sour

ces,

MW

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ased

on

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of i

nsta

lled

capa

city

for n

on-c

oast

al w

ind

reso

urce

s per

ERC

OT

Nod

al P

roto

cols

Sect

ion

3.2.

6.2.

2 an

d ap

prov

ed N

PRR

611

Capa

city

Con

trib

utio

n of

Coa

stal

Win

d Re

sour

ces,

MW

941

Bas

ed o

n 56

% o

f ins

talle

d ca

paci

ty fo

r coa

stal

win

d re

sour

ces p

er E

RCO

T N

odal

Pro

toco

ls Se

ctio

n 3.

2.6.

2.2.

and

app

rove

d N

PRR

611

RMR

Reso

urce

s to

be u

nder

Con

trac

t, M

W0

No

RMR

Reso

urce

s cur

rent

ly u

nder

con

trac

tN

on-S

ynch

rono

us T

ies C

apac

ity C

ontr

ibut

ion,

MW

517

Ave

rage

cap

abili

ty o

f the

top

20 h

ours

in th

e su

mm

er p

eak

seas

ons f

or th

e pa

st th

ree

year

s (20

12-2

014)

Plan

ned

Reso

urce

s (no

t win

d) w

ith si

gned

IA a

nd A

ir Pe

rmit,

MW

294

Bas

ed o

n in

-ser

vice

dat

es p

rovi

ded

by d

evel

oper

s of g

ener

atio

n re

sour

ces

Capa

city

Con

trib

utio

n of

Pla

nned

Non

-Coa

stal

Win

d w

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gned

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MW

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ed o

n in

-ser

vice

dat

es p

rovi

ded

by d

evel

oper

s of g

ener

atio

n re

sour

ces a

nd 1

2% o

f ins

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paci

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r non

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stal

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d re

sour

ces

Capa

city

Con

trib

utio

n of

Pla

nned

Coa

stal

Win

d w

ith si

gned

IA ,

MW

113

Bas

ed o

n in

-ser

vice

dat

es p

rovi

ded

by d

evel

oper

s of g

ener

atio

n re

sour

ces a

nd 5

6% o

f ins

talle

d ca

paci

ty fo

r coa

stal

win

d re

sour

ces

[a] T

otal

Res

ourc

es, M

W76

,968

[b] P

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Dem

and,

MW

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umm

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fore

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is b

ased

on

norm

al w

eath

er c

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tions

for 2

002

– 20

13

[c] R

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ve C

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, MW

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Fore

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ed

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mer

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son

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Loa

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Extr

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Load

/

Typi

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es

Extr

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Load

/

Extr

eme

Gene

ratio

n O

utag

es

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onal

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just

men

t2,

298

2,29

8

T ypi

cal M

aint

enan

ce O

utag

es32

8

32

8

328

T y

pica

l For

ced

Out

ages

2,36

1

2,

361

2,36

1

90th

Per

cent

ile F

orce

d O

utag

es-

-

2,45

6

[d] T

otal

Use

s of R

eser

ve C

apac

ity2,

689

4,98

7

7,

443

[e] C

apac

ity A

vaila

ble

for O

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ting

Rese

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(c-d

), M

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222

2,92

4

46

8

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00 M

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tes r

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1

Bas

ed o

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stor

ical

ave

rage

of p

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utag

es fo

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e th

roug

h Se

ptem

ber w

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ays (

star

ting

in A

ugus

t 201

0).

Bas

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ical

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June

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AR

IS E

NE

RG

Y C

EN

TER

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2TN

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A_G

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MA

RG

AS

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1989

76.0

149

PA

RIS

EN

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GY

CE

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SK

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RG

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1990

87.0

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N20

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N E

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2007

74.0

154

QU

AIL

RU

N E

NE

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Y C

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2008

72.0

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QA

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AS

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2008

98.0

157

QU

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N E

NE

RG

Y S

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AS

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2007

74.0

158

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N E

NE

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AS

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2008

72.0

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2003

50.0

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102

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2002

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2002

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2003

50.0

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2003

50.0

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SA

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AS

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2004

145.

016

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1974

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1974

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0096

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NG

AS

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2000

131.

618

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1963

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2004

212.

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2002

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1973

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2004

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2012

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AS

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AR

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AS

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1988

68.0

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PE

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IAN

BA

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GA

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T19

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AS

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1988

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AS

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AR

DG

AS

WE

ST

1990

70.0

241

R W

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RG

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PIN

TOG

AS

NO

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2000

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2001

75.0

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UR

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1963

11.0

246

SA

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AC

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SE

S C

TG 1

SJS

_SJS

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AS

HO

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TON

1995

81.0

247

SA

N J

AC

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SE

S C

TG 2

SJS

_SJS

_G2

HA

RR

ISG

AS

HO

US

TON

1995

81.0

248

SA

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L E

NE

RG

Y C

EN

TER

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101

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0041

SA

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HS

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ISTA

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ER

DE

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RO

WE

ST

1983

37.9

354

AU

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N H

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US

TIN

G1

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VIS

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1940

8.0

355

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VIS

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1940

9.0

356

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1938

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1938

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MA

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ALL

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MA

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1951

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1951

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1941

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1941

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1953

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1989

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17 of 17

Release Date: March 2, 2015

Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region Background The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report is a deterministic approach to considering the impact of potential variables that may affect the sufficiency of installed resources to meet the peak electrical demand on the ERCOT System during a particular season. The standard approach to assessing resource adequacy for one or more years into the future is to account for projected load and resources on a normalized basis and to require sufficient reserves (resources in excess of peak demand, on this normalized basis) to cover the uncertainty in peak demand and resource availability to meet a one-in-ten-years loss-of-load event criteria on a probabilistic basis. For seasonal assessments that look ahead less than a year, specific information may be available (such as seasonal climate forecasts or anticipated common-mode events such as drought) which can be used to consider the range of resource adequacy in a more deterministic manner. In contrast to the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report, which addresses the sufficiency of planning reserves on an annual basis as described above, the SARA report focuses on the availability of sufficient operating reserves to avoid emergency actions such as deployment of voluntary load reduction resources. Consequently, load reduction resources included in the CDR report, such as Emergency Response Service (ERS) and Load Resources that provide operating reserves (LRs), are excluded from the SARA. The SARA report is intended to illustrate the range of resource adequacy outcomes that might occur, and thus help fulfill the reporting requirement per Public Utility Commission of Texas rule 25.362(i)(2)(H). Several sensitivity analyses are developed by varying the value of certain parameters that affect resource adequacy. The variation in these parameters is based on historic values of these parameters or adjustments by any known or expected changes.