premium developments since 1960335c0142-6224-4f41... · 1 swiss re sigma no. 3/2018 swiss re sigma...
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![Page 1: Premium developments since 1960335c0142-6224-4f41... · 1 Swiss Re sigma No. 3/2018 Swiss Re sigma No. 3/2018 2-6-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 9 8 1](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051910/600006928df0c7754c4adc48/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Premium developments since 1960 andemspaemsplookemspaheademsptoemsptheemspnextemspfiftyemspyearsemspofemspsigmaemspregionalemspgrowthemsppatternsemspandemspinsuranceemsppenetration
Foremsp50emspyearsemspsigmaemsphasemspbeenemsppublishingemspdataemsponemsppremiumsemspwrittenemspinemsptheemspglobalemspinsuranceemspmarketsemspTheseemspdataemspprovideemspanemspunmatchedemspoverviewemspofemsptheemspchangingemspgrowthemsppatternsemspandemspdevelopmentsemspofemspinsuranceemsppenetrationemspoveremsptheemsppastemspsixemspdecadesemspandemspareemsphelpfulemspinemsppredictingemsptheemspfutureemsp
A first shift to AsiaemspUpemspuntilemsptheemsplateemsp1970semspNorthemspAmericaemspandemspWesternemspEuropeemspwereemsptheemspmainemspcontri-butorsemsptoemspglobalemsprealemsppremiumemspgrowthemspAfteremspWorldemspWaremspIIemsptheemspmassemspproductionemspofemspautomobilesemspinemsptheemsp1950semspboostedemsptheemspmotoremspinsuranceemspbusinessemspemspemspemspemspemspConsequentlyemspnon-lifeemspinsuranceemsppenetrationemsp(premiumsGDP)emspwasemsponemspanemspupwardsemsppathemsp(seeemspleftemspfigures)emspieemspinsuranceemspmarketsemspexpandedemspmoreemspstronglyemspthanemspGDPemsp(seeemspFigureemsp6emspsigmaemspNoemsp32018)emspLifeemspinsuranceemspinemsptheseemsptwoemspregionsemsphoweveremspgrewemspatemspaboutemsptheemspsameemsprateemspasemspGDPemspieemsppenetrationemsplevelsemspremainedemspstableemspuntilemsptheemsplateemsp1970semsp
TheemspinsuranceemspindustryemspalsoemspexpandedemsprapidlyemspinemsptheemspadvancedemspAsianemspmarketsemspdomi-natedemspbyemspJapanemspWithemsptheemspeconomyemspgrowingemspatemsp8emsponemspaverageemspinemsptheemsp1960semspandemsp1970semspandemspGDPemspperemspcapitaemspconvergingemsptowardsemspUSemsplevelsemsplifeemspinsuranceemspgrowthemspoutpacedemspeconomicemspgrowthemspLifeemspinsuranceemspinemspJapanemspwasemsppopularemspdueemsptoemsptheemspsoaringemsplevelsemspofemsphouseholdemspsavingemspandemsptheemspcountrylsquosemspdevelopingemspsocialemspsecurityemspsystememspforemspoldemspageemspprovisionemspsigmaemspNoemsp111981emspnotesemspthatemspinemsptheemsp1960semspandemsp1970semspinsuranceemspgrowthemspcyclesemspfollowedemsptheemspeconomicemspcyclesemspquiteemspcloselyemspInemsptheemsplifeemspsectoremspthisemsplinkemsphasemspsinceemspweakenedemspLifeemspinsuranceemspmarketsemspinemspNorthemspAmericaemspandemspWesternemspEuropeemspsurgedemspinemsptheemsp1980semspuntilemsptheemspturnemspofemsptheemspcenturyemspLifeemspsavingsemspbusinessemspgrowthemspwasemspsupportedemspbyemsptaxemspincentivesemspattractiveemspinterestemsprateemspguaranteesemspandemspinnovationsemspemspsuchemspasemspunit-linkedemspproductsemspwhichemsptiedemsptheemspreturnemsptoemsptheemspperformanceemspofemspaemspparticularemspinvestmentemsp
Fast growth in the 1980semspNon-lifeemsppremiumemspgrowthemspgainedemspstrongemspmomentumemspinemsptheemsp1980semspafteremspaemspweakemspstartemsptoemsptheemspdecadeemspandemspanemspoilemsppriceemspshockemspAccordingemsptoemspsigmaemspNoemsp51995emspgrowthemspwasemspdrivenemspbyemspbdquoextraordinarilyemsphighemspclaimsemsppaymentsemspthatemspwereemspincurredemspinemsptheemspUSemspbecauseemspofemspchangingemsplegalemspprecedentsemspinemspquestionsemspofemspliabilityldquoemspThisemspstrainedemsptheemspcapitalemspbaseemspofemsptheemspinsuranceemspindustryemspandemspgaveemspriseemsptoemspmassiveemsppremiumemsprateemspincreasesemspbutemsptheemsprevivingemspeconomyemspalsoemsphademspaemsppositiveemspeffectemspAsemspaemspresultemsppremiumsemspwereemsprisingemspatemspaemsprateemspthatemsphademspneveremspbeenemspseenemspbefore
TheemsplifeemspboomemspinemspJapanemspcameemsptoemspaemsphaltemspinemsp1990emspMeanwhileemsptheemspEuropeanemspandemspUSemsplifeemspsectorsemspcontinuedemsptoemspbeemsptheemspmainemspgrowthemspdriversemspforemsptheemspglobalemspinsuranceemspmarketsemspwellemspafteremsptheemspturnemspofemsptheemspcenturyemspasemspsavingsemspproductsemspwereemspattractiveemspinemspanemspenvironmentemspemspofemspgraduallyemspdecliningemspinterestemspratesemspInemspcontrastemspnon-lifeemspmarketsemspgrewemspmoreemspslowlyemspemspinemsptheemspUSemspandemspinemspEuropeemspduringemsptheemspsameemspperiodemspasemspderegulationemspalternativeemspformsemspemspofemspriskemsptransferemspandemspcompetitionemspfromemsptraditionalemspsuppliersemspputemsppressureemsponemsppremiumemspratesemspThisemspchangedemsphoweveremspwithemsptheemspterroremspattackemspofemsp911emspwhichemsptriggeredemspanotheremsphardemspmarketemspSinceemspthenemsppenetrationemspinemspNorthemspAmericaemspandemspEuropeemsphasemspremainedemspvirtuallyemspunchangedemspinemsptheemspnon-lifeemspsectoremsp‒emspexcludingemsptheemsp911emspspikeemsp‒emspandemsphasemspdeclinedemspgraduallyemspinemsptheemsplifeemspsector
The second shift to Asia and the rise of emerging marketsemspEmergingemspmarketsemspespeciallyemspChinaemsphaveemspstartedemsptoemspmakeemspaemspbiggeremspcontributionemsptoemsppremiumemspgrowthemspsinceemsptheemspturnemspofemsptheemspcenturyemspThisemspbecameemspclearemspinemsptheemspaftermathemspofemsptheemspfinancialemspcrisisemspinemsp20082009emspwhichemspaffectedemspadvancedemspmarketemspnon-lifeemspgrowthemspandemspfurtheremspweakenedemsptheemspalreadyemspstrugglingemsplifeemspinsuranceemspmarketsemspSinceemsp2010emspEmergingemspAsiaemsphasemspbecomeemsptheemsplargestemspsourceemspofemspgrowthemspinemsptheemspglobalemspinsuranceemspmar-ketsemspalthoughemsppenetrationemsplevelsemsphaveemspbeenemspgraduallyemspincreasingemspacrossemspallemspregionsemsp
TheemspeconomicemspoutlookemspforemsptheemspadvancedemspmarketsemspremainsemspsolidemspTheyemspwillemspremainemspanemspimportantemspsourceemspofemspgrowthemspgivenemsptheiremspcurrentemspmarketemspshareemspofemsp78emsp(seeemspfiguresemsptoemsptheemspleft)emspHoweveremsptheemspabilityemspofemsptheemspinsuranceemspindustryemsptoemspofferemspsolutionsemspforemspnewemsprisksemspsuchemspasemspcyberemspandemsptoemspofferemspviableemspsavingsemspproductsemspwillemspbeemspvitalemspforemspfutureemspgrowthemsp
InemsptheemspshorteremsptermemspChinaemspisemsplikelyemsptoemspbecomeemsptheemspnextemspJapanemspforemspinsuranceemspmarketemspgrowthemspgivenemsptheemsprecentemspsteepemspincreasesemspinemsppenetrationemsplevelsemspandemspstrongemspeconomicemspgrowthemspDueemsptoemsptheemspsheeremspsizeemspofemspitsemsppopulationemspandemsptheemspeconomyemspChinaemspwillemspremainemsptheemspbiggestemspcontributoremsptoemspglobalemspinsuranceemspmarketemspgrowthemspamongemspemergingemspmarketsemspforemsptheemspnextemspdecadeemspatemspleastemspHoweveremspfiftyemspyearsemspfromemspnowemspwhenemspsigmaemspcelebratesemspitsemsp100themspanniversaryemsptheemspworldlsquosemspfastestemspgrowingemspinsuranceemspmarketemspcouldemspbeemspIndiaemspemspIndonesiaemspBrazilemspMexicoemspPakistanemspNigeriaemsporemspEthiopiaemspOnlyemsptimeemspwillemsptell
Lifeemspandemspnon-lifeemspinsuranceemspemsppenetrationemspinemspemsp1960‒2017emsp
Contributionemspofemspmainemspregionsemsp(inemsppercentageemsppoints)emspemsptoemsptotalemsprealemsppremiumemspgrowthemsp(inemspemspindicatedemspbyemspwhiteemsplineemspforemspyearsemspwithemspnegativeemspregions)emsp1960‒2017emspemsp
Regionalemspmarketemspsharesemsp1960‒2017
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1977
1997
2017
NorthemspAmericaemsp
AdvancedemspEMEAemsp
AdvancedemspAsiaemspPacificemsp
LatinemspAmericaemsp
EmergingemspEMEAemsp
EmergingemspAsia
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HowemspmuchemsplongeremspwillemspEmergingemspAsiaemspcontinueemsptoemspdriveemspglobalemsppremiumemspgrowth
Remarkemspsomeemspstructuralemspbreacksemspaffectemspseriesemspandemspcountryemspcoverageemspisemsplimitedemspforemsptheemsp1960semspandemsptheemsp1970semspemspSourceemspforemspallemspchartsemspSwissemspReemspInstitute
North America
Advanced EMEA
Advanced Asia Pacific
Latin America
Emerging EMEA
Emerging Asia
- North america
- Advanced EMEA
- Advanced Pacific
- Emerging ASIA
- Latin America
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