prepared by: dr dirk a prinsloo - waterfall · 2 urban studies waterfall business estate, midrand,...

Waterfall Business Estate Midrand 1 09v 4078

PREPARED BY:

DR DIRK A PRINSLOO

WATERFALL BUSINESS ESTATE, MIDRAND

FOR

ATTERBURY WATERFALL INVESTMENT COMPANY

FEBRUARY 2010

2

URBAN STUDIES Waterfall Business Estate, Midrand, 2010 Tel. (011) 888-2169 E-mail: [email protected] www.urbanstudies.co.za

CONTENT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................... 8

2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................ 8

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................... 9

3.1 Desk survey .............................................................................................................. 9

3.2 Field survey .............................................................................................................. 9

4. SOUTH AFRICAN PROPERTY MARKET ........................................................................ 12

4.1 General economic indicators for South Africa ............................................................ 12

4.2 Economy/GDP per Province ..................................................................................... 15

5. POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE - MACRO LEVEL ........................................... 18

5.1 Total Gauteng Population and Projected Growth ....................................................... 18

6. RETAIL SUPPLY IN SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................ 21

6.1 Geographical Distribution of Shopping Centre Retail Space ........................................ 22

6.2 Gauteng retail market ............................................................................................. 23

7. OFFICE MARKET .......................................................................................................... 25

7.1 National office market in the major metropolitan areas .............................................. 25 7.2 Johannesburg office market – take-up rates ............................................................. 29

8. RESIDENTIAL MARKET ............................................................................................... 31

8.1 House prices in Johannesburg vs. the rest of South Africa ......................................... 31

8.2 Growth nodes in Gauteng ........................................................................................ 32

9. BROADER MIDRAND AREA ......................................................................................... 35

9.1 Population numbers, growth and projections ............................................................ 35

9.2 Socio-economic and demographic profile .................................................................. 40 9.3 Socio-economic and demographic profile of the more affluent residents in the western

side of Midrand: ............................................................................................ 42

9.4 Socio-economic and demographic profile of the below average households in the eastern side of Midrand: ................................................................................ 43

9.5 Building plans approved and completed in Midrand :2000-2009 ................................. 44 9.6 Retail Supply in the Midrand area ............................................................................. 48

9.6.1 Existing retail facilities in the area ............................................................................ 48

9.6.2 Shopping behaviour: More affluent western side of Midrand ..................................... 50 9.6.3 Shopping behaviour: Below average suburbs Midrand East ........................................ 50

9.6.4 Rental levels ........................................................................................................... 51 9.7 Industrial Developments .......................................................................................... 52

9.8 Office market in Midrand and adjacent office nodes .................................................. 57 9.9 House prices and sales in the area ........................................................................... 60

9.10 Single residential units ............................................................................................. 60

9.11 Multiple units .......................................................................................................... 64

10. NODAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE IN GREATER JOHANNESBURG .......................... 69

10.1 Centurion ............................................................................................................... 69 10.2 Fourways ................................................................................................................ 74

10.3 Sunninghill/Rivonia .................................................................................................. 78

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11. MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE ............................................................................. 82

11.1 Age of the surrounding nodes .................................................................................. 83

12. NEW DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................. 84

13. SITE EVALUATION ...................................................................................................... 89

13.1 Meso environment/broader area .............................................................................. 89

13.2 Office site evaluation ............................................................................................... 89 13.3 Retail site evaluation ............................................................................................... 90

13.4 Industrial site evaluation ......................................................................................... 92 13.5 Waterfall Business Estate Master Locality Plan .......................................................... 93

14. MARKET POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS LAND USE CATEGORIES .................................... 95

14.1 Residential development .......................................................................................... 96 14.2 Retail development ................................................................................................. 99

14.3 Industrial development .......................................................................................... 100 14.4 Office development ............................................................................................... 101

14.5 Other activities as part of a New Town development ............................................... 101

15. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................. 103


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Attributes Comments

Macro Economic Indicators

GDP Slow recovery – Time lag. Will grow at 3.5% by 2012.

Interest Rates Down by 5.5%. Will remain in this range for next 3 years.

Inflation First time in 51 months within government target. Currently down from 15.5% to 5.9%.

Gauteng Market

GDP Economic barometer still negative. Recovery expected from end of Q2 2009.

GDP Contribution 33% of national economy

GDP Sectors Finance, manufacturing and retail trade

Economic indicators Growth, construction and financial services indices are still negative while electricity

and manufacturing are positive.

Population 2010 - 10,4 million people

2025 – 12,7 million people 2050 – 17,4 million people

Johannesburg

Tshwane/Pretoria Midrand

2008 – 3,4 million people

2008 – 2 million people 2008 - 400 000 people

Socio economic

profile

Johannesburg has the highest socio-economic and demographic profile (46% in LSM

7-10).

Retail Market Supply 8% growth in 2004-7 with 12% currently (time lag since 2006). Expected to be

down to 5-6%.

Gauteng represents 45% of all the shopping centre space in South Africa.

This is higher than the 33% contribution made to the GDP by Gauteng;

Gauteng represents 64% of all the shopping centres with a size of

>50 000m².

Office Market of all A and B grade office space in South Africa, Johannesburg represents

59% compared to 17% in Pretoria and 14% in Cape Town;

vacancy levels in the whole of Johannesburg is currently at 8.2%; Midrand represents the third largest office node in Greater Johannesburg after

Johannesburg CBD and Sandton.

Broader Midrand Market

Population Numbers

and growth

there is currently ±105 000 households living in the Midrand area;

with a 2% growth rate this figure could increase to almost 115 000 households in

2015.

has a dual socio-economic profile with people in informal houses and affluent

households forming part of golf and security estates.

This will clearly be highlighted in the next section.

Midrand building

plans

very good residential growth,

a consistent growth in the market supply of office space,

a lower supply of industrial space because of electricity shortage and

a low take up rate for retail space.

Retail supply in

Midrand

In total almost 150 000m² of shopping space is located within 5 km from Midrand

Central;

These retail facilities consist of a number of local and smaller convenience

centres;

The Boulders is the largest at almost 50 000m², mainly catering for customers

living to the east of Midrand.




1 Annual take-up rates once the area has been established as an office address could vary between 20 000m² and 50 000m².

Shopping behaviour

Western side

No one shopping centre dominates.

Centres in Kyalami cater for the convenience needs, while a number of bigger

centres are patronised for other retail products.

It is clear from the above mentioned that very little support is directed to

shopping facilities on the eastern side of Midrand.

Shopping behaviour Eastern side

The two community type centres in Tembisa is more or less the same size at ±18

000m² each; most of the retail support is still directed towards the Kempton Park area

especially Festival Mall and The Boulders in Midrand.

Industrial Market Linbro Industrial Park - located on the N3 at Marlboro Road

(estimated annual take up of 12 500m²)

Longmeadow Business Park – located on the N3 at Modderfontein Road

(estimated annual take up of 64 000m²) Grand Central Airport area

Randtjiespark

Industrial rentals Most industrial rentals declined during difficult economic times.

Office Market the supply of office space in the suburbs of Woodmead, Sunninghill, Fourways

and Midrand was 1.3 million m² for 2009; the vacancy rate is currently 7.3%;

It is important to note that the highest annual take-up rate1 also reflects the

most attractive/popular office nodes in Johannesburg:

Midrand ±41 000m² p.a.

Sunninghill ±15 000m² p.a.

Woodmead ±34 000m² p.a.

The take up rate for offices in Midrand is the second highest after Sandton.

This take up is slightly higher than the supply of new space of±30 000m².

Office Rentals Rivonia increased,

Midrand moved sideways

Sunninghill and Woodmead are down.

Residential Market

Single residential

units

More than 10 000 residential units came on the market in these specific

residential areas since 2001;

Sales peaked during 2007 at almost 1 700 units,

Average house prices during 2009 varies between R700 000 - R2.5 million;

During 2008/9 some suburbs reflected good growth, while others indicated

negative growth;

45% of all the sales in this market was in the price range R1 million to R2

million; A further 16% was sold above R2 million. This clearly emphasise the nature of

this market, reflecting a high socio economic status area.

Residential Market Multiple

residential units

the number of multiple units sold in this area represents more than 17 000

units between 2001 and 2009. The most popular price range was between R500 000 and R800 000 (50% of all

sales);

Only 14% of the units sold for more than R1 million.

3 700 multiple units sold in total during 2007.



Nodal Comparison

Centurion Very strong in all sectors of property market. Main growth south towards Midrand.

Fourways One of the fastest growing nodes in South Africa.

Part of the most affluent sector of Johannesburg. The node covers a very wide area with developments on various fronts.

Sunninghill/Rivonia/

Woodmead

Area closest to Waterfall Business Estate. Since the 1990s this area has developed

into a strong office node. The one section on the southern side of the highway is getting old and needs an upgrade, while new offices are being built on the northern

side. Residential growth is mainly in the newer suburbs on the northern side.

Market Attractiveness Score

Adjacent nodes part of the top 10

markets

1 Sandton 4 Fourways

6 Centurion

8 Midrand 10 Sunninghill/Rivonia

Waterfall Business Estate will fall in the same positive range

New Developments

Midrand Residential

Development

Actively suspended – 3409

Almost completed – 306 Awaiting rezoning – 120

Completed – 5 749

In process - 870 Low activity – 201

Recently announced – almost 3 000 units with one third sold All indicating negative economic growth period.

Midrand Commercial

Development

Mainly offices and warehouses.

No certainty with regards to Zonkizizwe. Forest Hill shopping centre in Centurion approved.

Power shortage will determine tempo of growth

Site evaluation

Offices Rating 77% indicating a very good address for offices.

Utilise visibility and accessibility from the highway.

Close to 2 Gautrain stations.

Retail Rating 75%. Provide sufficient ingress and egress to the Town Centre.

Ensure required number of households.

Industrial Rating 73.5%. Use central location and visibility to promote industrial development.

Market Potential

Residential units Between 800 - 1 200 units per annum

80% LSM 10

20% LSM 7-9

House prices R800 000 – R2.5 million

Multiple units R600 000 – R800 000

Retail Required no of households must be reached before retail start

Good growth of up to 20 000 houses are expected

Retail potential 2010 = 32 000m²


Market share of proposed centre = 22%

Can increase to 33%

Be aware of all existing and new retail facilities



Industrial Potential take up 15 000 – 20 000m²

Could increase to 20 000 – 30 000m² per annum

Potential for proposed site is positive because of excellent location

Office Excellent office address

Current take up rate 40 000m² – 50 000m²

Waterfall Business Estate could capture 16 000 – 20 000m² during good

economic times

Other 4 star hotel with 90 - 120 beds;

Medical facilities;

Private hospital of 250 beds;

Private school facilities from grade 0 - 12;

School size – total of 1200 learners. Conclusion It is expected that GDP will accelerate more in Midrand

Must be seen as a 10 – 15 year project

Retail must „follow the roofs‟ strategy

Part of infill strategy which normally develops faster than Greenfields

developments

Office excellent, accessible and visible location

The time lag based on the economic downturn will delay the development

tempo by 2 – 3 years The Waterfall precinct offers a unique opportunity in South Africa and will

become one of the main new nodes in future.


8


MARKET POTENTIAL FOR WATERFALL BUSINESS ESTATE, MIDRAND

1. BACKGROUND Waterfall Business Estate is one of the most sought after properties in Central Gauteng. The area consists of 2 200ha land. This land offers infill opportunities, mainly because of historical reasons. An infill opportunity in the growth direction of two metropolitan areas is unique in the South African situation. This will clearly impact on market potential in future. The site offers very high accessibility and visibility from the N1 running through the area. The site is also located on prime land and is the only portion of land between Johannesburg and Pretoria of this nature and size. The rest of the infill development between Johannesburg and Pretoria will now be linked with development all along this very busy route. This land is ideally located for a variety of different land uses. The timeframe of the development is also regarded as 15-20 years+. It is therefore of utmost importance to obtain the best market information and to update market trends on a regular basis (every 2nd or 3rd year).

This report will highlight the market dynamics of the broader area and its impact on the Waterfall development.

2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The main objectives of the research were the following: to get a good understanding of the dynamics of the area;

to get a good understanding of all current and proposed developments on the

site as well as in the broader region; to focus on future property developments that will impact on the performance of

the proposed development;

to identify catalytic projects within the Midrand and other adjacent areas that will stimulate further growth;

to conduct a detailed site evaluation for different urban market/land uses as

part of the broader piece of land; to give a broad indication of development potential for each of the different

urban markets and sub segments; to link each development to a specific timeframe;

and to address specific issues regarding the image and perception of the area.




9

All this will be used as input for the rest of the professional team and as marketing information.

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY To achieve the above mentioned objectives the research mainly focused on two components namely: desk survey; field survey.

3.1 Desk survey In the desk survey existing sources of information were used:

Stats SA 2001, 2009/10 adjusted for 2015; SACSC Shopping Centre Directory 2009/10; SAPOA office vacancy survey 1993 September 2009; Rode Report on the South African Property Market 2009:3 Volume 20 number 3. Global Demographics 2009,Urban Land Institute. Washington.

Urban Studies‟ databank 2005-2007; various websites; Property 24 BMR, 2009 Global Insight, 2008 Discussions with the following people:

o Kobus Potgieter, town planner City of Joburg, Tel 011 407 6156. o Nicolai Claassen, Stats SA, Tel 012 336 0142. o Geoff O'Connell, Century Property Development, Tel 082 448 8143. o Ohran, Joburg Centre of Education, Tel 079 508 5139.

3.2 Field survey A detailed field survey was undertaken from the 6th until the 31st of October 2009, focusing on the following:

growth trends in the area, indicating the type, numbers and the quality of different developments. This included:

o developments especially on the western side of Midrand, o new developments east of the N1 highway and o south towards Woodmead up to Longmeadow;

focus on all town planning applications in process / approved for the broader area to indicate the level of activity as well as the nature of future proposed developments. It can be expected that a large number of these developments would be in competition with Waterfall Business Estate. It was therefore of utmost importance to get a clear indication of all proposed town planning schemes;



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focus on current development trends as far as commercial, residential and other developments are concerned.

The information highlighted the following for each of the different land uses:

growth over a 10-15 year period; annual demand and supply per land use; rental levels; type of barriers.

Diagram 3.1 gives an indication of the research approach. DIAGRAM 3.1

RESEARCH APPROACH

MAIN APPROACH TO CONDUCT A SITE

EVALUATION

OUTCOME: DETAILED UNDERSTANDING OF TOTAL MARKET

Broad understanding

of macro economic

indicators/metro

MESO LEVEL

MACRO LEVEL

Market potential

MICRO LEVEL

SPECIFIC

MICRO

Site Selection:

Identify new locations

Optimise/rationalise

Branch Profile

Specific Location:

Accessibility

Visibility



11

Diagram 3.2 gives an overview of the approach followed to evaluate the Waterfall market in the light of the abovementioned approach. The Gauteng Province was included as part of the macro environment, Centurion, Sunninghill and Fourways together with the rest of Midrand on the meso level. The focus on the different precincts as part of Waterfall Business Estate must be regarded as micro market analysis, highlighting the market potential. DIAGRAM 3.2

Waterfall Business Estate

MAIN OBJECTIVES: Understand dynamic nature of the area.

To calculate the development potential for various land use(s).

To link a specific timeframe to the

project. Input for rest of development

Residential Retail Offices Other

Profile

Growth

- House/multiple

unit prices: - 2001-2009

- changes Take-up rate

Competitors

Population

Profile

Shopping

patterns

Expenditure

levels Competition

Office

market

Take-up

rate Vacancies

New

growth

nodes

Hotels

Medical

Convention

and training

Warehouses

DYNAMIC NATURE

SITE EVALUATION

MARKET POTENTIAL

INPUT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENT



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4. SOUTH AFRICAN PROPERTY MARKET

4.1 General economic indicators for South Africa Diagram 4.1 gives a summary of the different attributes impacting on the performance of the property industry in South Africa. Note the following:

the colour of the arrow clearly indicates the changes in the economy since 2006; during 2006 most indicators were positive; trends started changing in 2007, also indicating sideways movements;

the trend in 2008 also changed more negative which continued through the early parts of 2009;

during the current fourth quarter 2009 figures indicate the following: o green shoots appearing as far as interest rates are concerned, a drop in

inflation and a turnaround of most of the property market economic indicators.

The two indicators impacting most on property performance in South Africa are:

GDP growth and prime interest rates.

The GDP growth figures for the third quarter 2009 was released late November 2009 and the following trends are applicable:

43 quarter consecutive growth period ended during the fourth quarter in 2008.The GDP figures indicated a growth of 0.9% for quarter 3 of 2009, indicating that South Africa is out of this latest recession. It is expected that the growth for the next 2-3 years would be slow, especially as far as property development is concerned.

the interest rates have come down 500 basis points. The prime interest rate came down from 15.5% at the end of 2008 to 10.5% currently. The inflation expectation for 2010 is not looking favourable and can cause the Monetary Committee to increase the interest rate in order to control inflation.

The main economic indicators for property development have turned positive, however, a time lag of up to two years could be expected.



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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Jan

-00

Jun

-00

No

v-0

0

Ap

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Sep

-01

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-02

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02

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2

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-03

Oct

-03

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-04

Au

g-0

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Jan

-05

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-05

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r-0

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Sep

-06

Feb

-07

Jul-

07

De

c-0

7

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Au

g-0

9

INTEREST RATESJAN 2000 TO SEPT 2009

All this is positive for property development on the longer term. The main concern, however, is the time lag based on the very strong decline of 6%.



14

DIAGRAM 4.1

ECONOMIC INDICATORS INFLUENCING PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT

Attributes Trend 2006

Trend 2007

Trend 2008

Latest 2009Q4

Comments

GDP growth

2009Q3 showed a positive 0.9% increase, this takes SA out of recession. The overall growth in 2008 was 3.1%. -6.4% in 2009Q1 and -3% in 2009Q2 (annualised Q/Q figures) Forecast for 2009, -2% and 2% for 2009.

Inflation CPI

Currently: CPI for Nov 09 = 5.8% PPI for Nov 09 = -1.2%.

Rand/Dollar

Currently around ±R7.60 to the dollar.

A strong rand could hurt exports, but would make imports cheaper and benefit domestic inflation.

Building plans passed

Jan-Oct 08 vs Jan-Oct 09 (constant prices) Residential (-41.4%), Non-residential (-9.9%), Addition & Alteration (-12%). In Total plans passed is 25.9% down.

Building plans completed

Jan-Oct 08 vs Jan-Oct 09 (constant prices) Residential (-27.3%), Non-residential (-1.3%), Addition & Alteration (7.8%). In total, plans completed is 14.1% down.

Domestic Cement Sales

Moving Annual Total October 2009 vs Moving Annual Total October 2008

-13.8%

Car sales

In 2009 new car sales dropped by 25.9% compared to 2008. Total sales 395 000 in 2009 vs 497 000 in 2008. Record sales in 2006 – 714 000 units

House prices

Real y/y %change: October 2009: -2.2% November 2009: -1.1% Jan-Nov 2009: -7.4%

Formal employees

Unemployment in 3Q09 was 24.5% up from 23.6% in the previous quarter. Over 1 million jobs were lost in 2009

Retail sales (Real Value)

Latest: November 09 y/y: -6.6 October 09 y/y -6.1 & September 09 y/y – 4.9%.

SACCI: Bus. Confidence Index

Currently (Des 09) 83.5 points, this show a 0.6 point decrease from Nov 09.

Interest Rates

Repo 7% and Prime 10.5% The effect of 5% interest rate cut since Des 08 has not completely turned into positive confidence, expectations and consumption.

Manufacturing

Nov 09 y/y shows -4.5% decrease. Signs of recovery are starting to show. PMI: Increased to 47.6 in Oct 09 from 45.9 in Sept 09.

Oil prices

Currently ±77$/barrel. Higher prices could hamper inflation prospects, especially if the rand weakens.

2010/01/19



15

4.2 Economy/GDP per Province The main metropolitan areas are located in three provinces with larger cities in the other provinces. Gauteng is by far the most important province followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape. The GDP contribution to the national economy is indicated below. Figure 4.1 shows the contribution of each province to the economy of South Africa. Note the following:

the largest contribution of the country came from Gauteng (33,3%) followed by KwaZulu-Natal (16,7%) and Western Cape (14,4%);

the smallest contribution came from the Northern Cape at 2,2%. FIGURE 4.1

Northern Cape2%

Free State6%

Limpopo7%

North West6%

Mpumalanga7%

Eastern Cape8%

Western Cape14%

KwaZulu Natal17%

Gauteng33%

GDPR Contribution to the Economy, 2007

Source: Stats SA, Gross Domestic Product 2004. More recent data does not exist for Stats SA,

but data does not vary much from year to year. Only slight differences occur.



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The major economic sectors of each province are indicated in Table 4.1. TABLE 4.1

PROVINCES VS. MAJOR ECONOMIC SECTORS

Province Agri-

culture Mining Manu-

facturing Elec- tricity

Con- struction Trade

Trans- port

Finan- cial

Comm./soc /personal Services

General government

Free State 4.6 10.9 12.6 2.8 1.2 10.3 7.5 15.8 10.3 13.6

North West 2.6 24.9 7 1 1.6 11 8.1 13.6 7.7 12.1

Western Cape 4.4 0.3 17.6 1.6 2.7 14.5 9.1 25.4 4.8 9.2

Limpopo 3.1 21.7 3.5 2.8 1.4 11.5 8.3 15.6 4.5 17.3

Mpumalanga 3.8 17.9 18.6 4.5 1.4 10.2 8 11.4 4.9 9

Northern Cape 8 25.8 3.4 2.2 1.2 9.6 8.2 11.9 8.2 11

Eastern Cape 1.9 0.2 16.6 1.1 1.7 13.1 7.9 19.4 8.9 18.7

KwaZulu Natal 4.3 1.6 21.8 2.3 2.1 12.7 11.6 15.9 5.5 11.9

Gauteng 0.5 1.7 20.5 2 2.5 13.4 8.2 21.4 4 15.4

Source: Stats SA, 2007 – Provincial Profiles

The strengths of Gauteng lie in the size and the diversification of the local economy. The focus is however on manufacturing, trade and finance. All three these land use categories have a major influence on property development.

Diagram 4.2 gives a summary of the different attributes impacting on the performance of the property industry in Gauteng. The latest economic indicators for Gauteng highlight the following: DIAGRAM 4.2

ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR GAUTENG

The growth index is still down but starts recovering from the 3rd quarter of 2009.

The construction index will take longer to recover because of the time lag of at least 3 years in major property development. This would be applicable for residential, commercial as well as hotel facilities.



17

This index has already shown a turning point. Future supply of electricity will remain a concern for property developers for the next 3-5 years until Eskom increases capacity.

Growth in the manufacturing sector contributed most to the GDP growth during the 3rd quarter of 2009. This is also reflected in this graph.

This lag will impact on office development for at least the next 2-3 years, slowing down take-up rates.

Source: Sake 24, 2009



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5. POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE - MACRO LEVEL

5.1 Total Gauteng Population and Projected Growth The purpose of this section is to focus on the next level of operation and to get a clear understanding of different population, household and commercial activities per city. Population growth and projections – Gauteng Province Table 5.1 gives an indication of the population projections until 2050 per province. TABLE 5.1

GAUTENG AND SOUTH AFRICA POPULATION PROJECTIONS UNTIL 20502

Provincial Population Outcomes - Thousands

2005 2010 2015 2025 2035 2050

Western Cape Red 4,816 5,133 5,372 5,779 6,107 6,270

Blue 4,838 5,216 5,558 6,313 7,107 8,176

Green 4,964 5,533 6,010 7,100 8,336 10,348

Eastern Cape Red 6,435 6,405 6,338 6,313 6,371 6,404

Blue 6,411 6,315 6,165 5,975 5,748 5,120

Green 6,453 6,385 6,207 5,866 5,360 4,048

Northern Cape Red 1,057 1,083 1,098 1,138 1,194 1,247

Blue 1,057 1,083 1,099 1,150 1,215 1,270

Green 1,050 1,063 1,076 1,123 1,176 1,204

Free State Red 2,868 2,821 2,747 2,663 2,599 2,440

Blue 2,868 2,815 2,736 2,654 2,542 2,189

Green 2,812 2,696 2,574 2,359 2,033 1,194

KwaZulu-Natal Red 9,955 10,015 10,023 10,373 10,842 11,255

Blue 9,970 10,048 10,112 10,742 11,454 12,001

Green 10,046 10,253 10,445 11,285 12,165 12,853

North West Red 3,467 3,484 3,468 3,497 3,537 3,488

Blue 3,470 3,488 3,480 3,556 3,601 3,437

Green 3,346 3,199 3,116 3,014 2,784 2,017

Gauteng Red 9,655 10,144 10,465 11,134 11,727 11,948

Blue 9,720 10,384 11,014 12,728 14,692 17,413

Green 9,914 10,998 12,065 14,826 18,170 23,707

Mpumalanga Red 3,634 3,706 3,762 3,957 4,172 4,375

Blue 3,639 3,712 3,777 4,022 4,237 4,275

Green 3,613 3,659 3,734 3,967 4,101 3,837

Limpopo Red 5,241 5,457 5,655 6,091 6,571 7,216

Blue 5,226 5,391 5,510 5,718 5,796 5,451

Green 5,163 5,236 5,277 5,232 4,859 3,368

Total Red 47,128 48,248 48,928 50,947 53,119 54,643

Blue 47,199 48,453 49,451 52,859 56,391 59,331

Green 47,362 49,022 50,505 54,772 58,984 62,576


2005 2010 2015 2025 2035 2050

Western Cape Red 4,816 5,133 5,372 5,779 6,107 6,270

Blue 4,838 5,216 5,558 6,313 7,107 8,176

Green 4,964 5,533 6,010 7,100 8,336 10,348

Eastern Cape Red 6,435 6,405 6,338 6,313 6,371 6,404

Blue 6,411 6,315 6,165 5,975 5,748 5,120

Green 6,453 6,385 6,207 5,866 5,360 4,048


Blue 1,057 1,083 1,099 1,150 1,215 1,270

Green 1,050 1,063 1,076 1,123 1,176 1,204

Free State Red 2,868 2,821 2,747 2,663 2,599 2,440

Blue 2,868 2,815 2,736 2,654 2,542 2,189

Green 2,812 2,696 2,574 2,359 2,033 1,194


Blue 9,970 10,048 10,112 10,742 11,454 12,001

Green 10,046 10,253 10,445 11,285 12,165 12,853

North West Red 3,467 3,484 3,468 3,497 3,537 3,488

Blue 3,470 3,488 3,480 3,556 3,601 3,437

Green 3,346 3,199 3,116 3,014 2,784 2,017

Gauteng Red 9,655 10,144 10,465 11,134 11,727 11,948

Blue 9,720 10,384 11,014 12,728 14,692 17,413

Green 9,914 10,998 12,065 14,826 18,170 23,707

Mpumalanga Red 3,634 3,706 3,762 3,957 4,172 4,375

Blue 3,639 3,712 3,777 4,022 4,237 4,275

Green 3,613 3,659 3,734 3,967 4,101 3,837

Limpopo Red 5,241 5,457 5,655 6,091 6,571 7,216

Blue 5,226 5,391 5,510 5,718 5,796 5,451

Green 5,163 5,236 5,277 5,232 4,859 3,368

Total Red 47,128 48,248 48,928 50,947 53,119 54,643

Blue 47,199 48,453 49,451 52,859 56,391 59,331

Green 47,362 49,022 50,505 54,772 58,984 62,576


2005 2010 2015 2025 2035 2050

Western Cape Red 4,816 5,133 5,372 5,779 6,107 6,270

Blue 4,838 5,216 5,558 6,313 7,107 8,176

Green 4,964 5,533 6,010 7,100 8,336 10,348

Eastern Cape Red 6,435 6,405 6,338 6,313 6,371 6,404

Blue 6,411 6,315 6,165 5,975 5,748 5,120

Green 6,453 6,385 6,207 5,866 5,360 4,048


Blue 1,057 1,083 1,099 1,150 1,215 1,270

Green 1,050 1,063 1,076 1,123 1,176 1,204

Free State Red 2,868 2,821 2,747 2,663 2,599 2,440

Blue 2,868 2,815 2,736 2,654 2,542 2,189

Green 2,812 2,696 2,574 2,359 2,033 1,194


Blue 9,970 10,048 10,112 10,742 11,454 12,001

Green 10,046 10,253 10,445 11,285 12,165 12,853

North West Red 3,467 3,484 3,468 3,497 3,537 3,488

Blue 3,470 3,488 3,480 3,556 3,601 3,437

Green 3,346 3,199 3,116 3,014 2,784 2,017

Gauteng Red 9,655 10,144 10,465 11,134 11,727 11,948

Blue 9,720 10,384 11,014 12,728 14,692 17,413

Green 9,914 10,998 12,065 14,826 18,170 23,707

Mpumalanga Red 3,634 3,706 3,762 3,957 4,172 4,375

Blue 3,639 3,712 3,777 4,022 4,237 4,275

Green 3,613 3,659 3,734 3,967 4,101 3,837

Limpopo Red 5,241 5,457 5,655 6,091 6,571 7,216

Blue 5,226 5,391 5,510 5,718 5,796 5,451

Green 5,163 5,236 5,277 5,232 4,859 3,368

Total Red 47,128 48,248 48,928 50,947 53,119 54,643

Blue 47,199 48,453 49,451 52,859 56,391 59,331

Green 47,362 49,022 50,505 54,772 58,984 62,576 Source: Global Insight, 2008

Gauteng represented just more than 20.5% of the total population in South Africa during 2005. This will increase to 24% in 2025 and still further to 29.3% in 2050. This clearly indicates the level of growth expected for Gauteng Province. It also confirms the role Gauteng is playing as the economic hub of South Africa.

Population growth projections

Gauteng

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Mill

ion

s

Blue

Green

Red

2 Three different growth scenarios were used. Low/RED: Decentralised population growth by assuming lower inter-provincial migration than the migration measured between 1991 and 2001. High HIV Aids, which results in lower life expectancy. Middle/Baseline/BLUE: Inter-provincial migration rates at the same level were measured between 1991 and 2001. HIV/AIDS assumptions of greatest likelihood. High: GREEN: Centralised population growth by assuming higher inter-provincial migration and resulting urbanisation. Low HIV/AIDS: Higher anti-retroviral treatment roll-out to patients; Higher international in-migration; Higher outflow of people from "rural" provinces, those without a metropolitan area.



19

Table 5.2 indicates the total number of people per area. TABLE 5.2

TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER AREA

Area % Total no of

people

Johannesburg 37 3 225 810

Ekurhuleni 28 2 480 282

Pretoria/Tshwane 17 1 985 984

Sedibeng (Consisting of Emfuleni, Midvaal, Lesedi)

9 794 608

West Rand (Consisting of Mogale City,

Randfontein, Westonaria)

8 527 870

Motsweding (Consisting of Kungweni, Nokeng) 1 159 901

Total 100 9 174 455 Source:BMR, 2008

Socio-economic and demographic profile According to Table 5.3 note the following:

the Johannesburg age profile is slightly older at 38 years compared to the province and the rest of South Africa;

77% of the population is black; in Johannesburg 74% of the people speak an African language with the majority

speaking Zulu, Sotho and Xhosa;

of the economically active people, 44% are employed; 44% are employed in white collar occupations and 16% in blue collar occupations; the most important sectors of the economy are financial/insurance (18%),

community related services (17%), retail/wholesale (19%) and manufacturing (12%). This clearly indicates the diverse nature of the Johannesburg economy;

41% of the adults have matric and higher qualifications; the median household income for Johannesburg is between R4 000 and R7 000 per

month. This clearly indicates the level of affluence in Johannesburg; 46% of the total Johannesburg population falls in LSM3 7 – 10;

65% of the total population live in houses or multiple units.

All this emphasises the importance of Johannesburg with the highest socio-economic and demographic profile.

3 LSM = Living Standard Measurement – a classification used countrywide by all marketers. The income per LSM category

reflects the monthly household income. (LSM 1 = deep rural, LSM 10 = affluent) LSM 1 – 4 = <R800 – R3 000 / LSM 5 – 7 = R3 001 – R8 000 / LSM 8 – 9 = R8 001 – R25 000 LSM 10 = R25 000+



20

TABLE 5.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

SA Gauteng Jhb

SA Gauteng Jhb

Age Groups % % % Individual Monthly Income % % % <19 years 43 32 31 No income 2 2 2 20 to 34 26 33 35 R1-400 14 7 6 35-54 21 26 25 R410-800 17 13 12 55+ 10 9 9 R801-1600 23 25 28

Population Groups

R1601-3200 19 21 21 Black 77 73 77 R3201-6400 14 16 15 Coloured 8 3 5 R6401-12800 8 11 9 Asian 3 2 3 R12801-25600 3 5 5 White 13 22 15 R26501-51200 1 2 2

Language Groups

R51201-102400 0 1 1 Afrikaans 13 14 7 R102401-204800 0 0 0 English 8 13 18 R204801+ 0 0 0

African 78 72 74 Annual Household Income

Other 0 1 1 No income 24 19 19

Employment

R1-4800 11 6 5 Employed 37 45 44 R4801-9600 23 14 14 Unemployed 24 26 28 R9601-19200 21 21 22 Not economically active 39 29 27 R19201-38400 17 19 20

Occupation

R38401-76800 12 14 14 Legislators, officials, managers 3 7 7 R76801-153600 9 12 10 Professionals 6 9 10 R153601-307200 5 9 7 Technicians 11 10 9 R307201-614400 2 4 4 Clerks 8 13 13 R614401-1228800 0 1 1 Service 10 11 13 R1228801-2457600 0 1 1 Skilled agriculture 5 1 0 R2457600+ 0 0 0

Crafts/trade 11 12 11 Median hh income 2001 16 898 29 186 27 841 Plant and Machinery 8 8 7 Median hh income 2009 26 815 46 314 44 181 Elementary occupations 33 20 21 Median hh income pm 2009 2 235 3 859 3 682

Undetermined 5 7 7 LSM Groups 2007 2007 2007

Occupation

LSM 1-3 34 20 19 White Collar 27 41 44 LSM 4 21 21 22 Blue Collar 23 19 16 LSM 5-6 13 19 30 Low Skilled 50 40 39 LSM 7-9 16 11 18

Sector

LSM 10 21 29 28

Agriculture 10 2 1 No of people in sub place 44819783 8837177 3008643 Mining 4 3 1 No of hh in sub place 11205692 2651220 933065

Manufacturing 13 14 12 Dwelling Unit

Electricity 1 1 1 House 56 54 50 Construction 5 6 6 Flat in block 5 7 10 Retail/Wholesale 15 17 19 Townhouse 3 5 5 Transport 5 6 6 House in back yard 4 7 8 Financial/Insurance 9 14 18 Traditional/informal dwelling 19 8 9 Community 19 18 17 Informal unit not in back yard 12 17 14 Other 0 0 0 Room/flat on shared property 1 2 2 Private household 10 10 10 Caravan/tent/other 0 0 0 Undetermined 9 10 0

Education

No schooling 18 8 7

Some primary 16 11 10

Complete primary 6 5 6

Some secondary 31 34 36

Std 10/Grade 12 20 28 28

Higher 8 13 13

Source: Census 2001, adjusted for 2009



21

6. RETAIL SUPPLY IN SOUTH AFRICA The following are key aspects to understand the retail market in South Africa:

the estimated retail space in South Africa is between 31 and 35 million m²; almost 17 million m² of the total retail space is located in shopping centres (this

represents 50% of the total retail space);

the importance of the shopping centre industry is reflected in the fact that ±53% of all money spent on retail is spent in shopping centres;

the total annual retail spend is in the vicinity of R700 billion per year. Graph 6.1 gives an indication of the high growth trend in the supply of shopping centre space in South Africa since 1969. GRAPH 6.1

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

Be

fore

19

70

19

70

-19

74

19

75

-19

79

19

80

-19

84

19

85

-19

89

19

90

-19

94

19

95

-19

99

20

00

-20

05

20

06

-20

10

M²

ADDITIONAL SUPPLY OF RETAIL SPACE 1970-2010

Source: SACSC Shopping Centre Directory, 2009/10

Table 6.1 gives an indication of the growth in the supply of retail facilities since 1993. Note the following:

The retail market has been growing at an average of 8% per annum since 1993; The growth accelerated to over 12% per annum during the last two years, reflecting

very good economic times.



22

TABLE 6.1

GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF CENTRES >30 000m² 1993-2009

Size 1993 1999 2007 2009

30 000-50 000m² 12 19 51 68

50 000-100 000m²+ 24 39 37 48

Number of centres * 36 58 88 116

Total floor area m² 1 879 246 2 772 949 4 746 069 5 994 847

Growth rate p.a.

1993–2008/9 8.0%

Growth rate p.a. 1999–2008/ 9

8.9%

Growth rate p.a.

2007-2009 12.4%


Graph 6.2

12 19

5168

2436

37

48

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1993 1999 2007 2009

Number of shopping centres in different size categories1993-2009

30 000-50 000m² 50 000-100 000m²

6.1 Geographical Distribution of Shopping Centre Retail Space According to Graphs 6.2 to 6.3, note the following:

Gauteng represents 45% of all the shopping centre space in South Africa. This is higher than the 33% contribution made to the GDP by Gauteng;

Gauteng represents 64% of all the shopping centres with a size of >50 000m².



23

GRAPH 6.3


GRAPH 6.4

2% 2%

64%

10%

5%17%

% Retail Space Per Province - centres above 50000m²

Eastern Cape

Free State

Gauteng

KZN

Mpumalanga

Western Cape


6.2 Gauteng retail market The retail supply of shopping centre space in Gauteng reflects a very strong position. This will continue as the highest disposable income also because of population growth in the province. Table 6.2 indicates the total retail market in Gauteng with a very strong level of representation in major growth nodes in close proximity to Waterfall Business Estate. Map 6.1 gives an indication of the distribution of retail space in Johannesburg and Midrand. Note the very strong northern growth coinciding with affluent residential growth.



24

TABLE 6.2

RETAIL MARKET IN GAUTENG

GLA m²

GLA m²

Alberton 171 158 Lenasia 63 491 Bedfordview 202 556 Midrand 149 884

Benoni 163 374 Nigel 8 243

Boksburg 289 628 Pretoria 1 596 896 Brakpan 47 407 Randburg 545 672

Centurion 368 032 Randfontein 36 089 Edenvale 201 415 Roodepoort 542 971

Germiston 132 565 Sandton 998 991

Johannesburg 1 181 597 Soweto 54 715 Katlehong 21 114 Springs 96 462

Kempton park 213 910 Tembisa 35 748 Krugersdorp 93 481 Westonaria 9 905

Total 3 086 237 Source: SA Council of Shopping Centres‟

Shopping Centre Directory 2009/10

MAP 6.1 JOHANNESBURG CENTRES

Retail centres in Johannesburg and Midrand

Most important Growth sector

Waterfall City


There is strong growth in the supply in the north western sector of the city. This corresponds with high residential growth. It also corresponds with the more affluent suburbs of Greater Johannesburg. The northern sector very much depends on the tempo of residential growth. There is also a clear market distinction between east and north of the N1 highway. Other nodes (east and south) are much slower to develop.



25

7. OFFICE MARKET

7.1 National office market in the major metropolitan areas Table 7.1 highlights the following:

of all A and B grade office space in South Africa, Johannesburg represents 59% compared to 17% in Pretoria and 14% in Cape Town;

vacancy levels in the whole of Johannesburg is currently at 8.2%; Midrand represents the third largest office node in Greater Johannesburg after

Johannesburg CBD and Sandton.



26

TABLE 7.1 DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF OFFICE SPACE

IN FOUR METROPOLITAN AREAS - 1993-2009(m²)

Johannesburg Cape Town

Year Supply Demand Year Supply Demand

1993 4552970 3962035 1993 1333100 1193600 1994 4645100 4079300 1994 1405700 1260400 1995 4871700 4240850 1995 1491000 1327700 1996 5257100 4732125 1996 1511200 1415000 1997 5544600 4928300 1997 1549000 1479270 1998 5584800 4968400 1998 1588199 1522950 1999 6196306 5244059 1999 1679615 1560662 2000 6048236 5373455 2000 1436371 1359797 2001 6382119 5533564 2001 1503310 1364359 2002 6613995 5577322 2002 1527317 1350511 2003 7468935 6106094 2003 1521816 1355515 2004 7470246 6173439 2004 1544456 1367242 2005 7545120 6589987 2005 1733408 1645798 2006 7591123 5912281 2006 1771661 1705974 2007 7766631 6180378 2007 1811360 1741087 2008 8130713 7684946 2008 1944672 1827740 2009 8175359 7508008 2009 2003290 1846266

% change 93-09 3.7% 4.5% % change 93-09 2.6% 2.8%

% change 2005-2009 2.0% 5.3% % change 2005-2009 3.7% 2.9%

Vacancy rate % 8.2 Vacancy rate % 7.8

Market share % 59 Market share % 14

Annual take up rate 93-09 221 623 Annual take up rate 93-09 40 792



Durban Tshwane

Year Supply Demand Year Supply Demand

1993 828500 729700 1993 1435200 1247268 1994 830700 735600 1994 1446600 1282000 1995 892200 813600 1995 1492100 1345200 1996 932400 833700 1996 1546050 1385950 1997 952000 845400 1997 1599600 1434286 1998 973350 861605 1998 1634700 1458350 1999 1084368 917466 1999 1692795 1526007 2000 1084752 907670 2000 1290205 1149356 2001 1102720 904938 2001 1315659 1179202 2002 1144348 935044 2002 1334694 1199743 2003 1172876 979332 2003 1390963 1299746 2004 1171568 1025435 2004 1648371 1577832 2005 1101110 938843 2005 1822121 1757003 2006 1076604 926986 2006 2153722 2101114 2007 1088471 967992 2007 2135911 2084197 2008 1131584 1015067 2008 2305784 2241220 2009 1154081 996269 2009 2563217 2462293

% change 93-09 2.1% 2.0% % change 93-09 3.7% 4.3%

% change 2005-2009 1.2% 1.5% % change 2005-2009 8.9% 8.8%

Vacancy rate % 13.7 Vacancy rate % 3.9

Market share % 8 Market share % 17




Source: SAPOA Office Vacancy survey, 1993-2009

* Also as a result of reclassification/degrading of office space to C type space



27

According to these two graphs, note the following:

the steady supply and demand in the Johannesburg office market; the position well above that of the other three major metropolitan areas; the growth in the Pretoria office market, which also confirms the importance of the

broader Gauteng area for office development. High levels of office growth to the south are also important to note.

GRAPH 7.1

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

SUPPLY OF OFFICE SPACE IN METROPOLITAN AREAS: 1993-2009

Jhb Durban Tshwane Cape Town

Source: SAPOA, 1993-2008

GRAPH 7.2

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

DEMAND FOR OFFICE SPACE IN METROPOLITAN AREAS 1993-2009

Jhb Durban Pta Cape Town




28

The Johannesburg offices reflect a steady take-up rate of ±200 000m². The growth rate also remains 5.3% per annum. The market share of Johannesburg has dropped slightly with increases in office supply in Pretoria, Cape Town and Durban. GRAPH 7.3




29

Map 7.1: Johannesburg Office Supply

Office Supply in Johannesburg and Midrand

More than 90% of all decentralised office space has taken place in a northerly / north-westerly direction.

7.2 Johannesburg office market – take-up rates Table 7.2 gives an indication of the annual take-up rate for some of the most important office nodes in Johannesburg. Two different periods are reflected namely:

1993 – 2009 (the data base has started including different economic cycles), and 2000 – 2009 (reflecting the more recent development trends).

It is important to note that the highest annual take-up rate4 also reflects the most attractive/popular office nodes in Johannesburg:

Midrand ±41 000m² p.a.

Sunninghill ±15 000m² p.a. Woodmead ±34 000m² p.a.

The take up rate for offices in Midrand is the second highest after Sandton. This take up is slightly higher than the supply of new space of ±30 000m² as indicated in Section 4.3 above. The take-up rate also includes the supply provided earlier.

4 Annual take-up rates once the area has been established as an office address could vary between 20 000m² and 50 000m²



30

The older, more mature nodes reflect a much lower annual take-up rate. TABLE 7.2

ANNUAL TAKE-UP RATE JOHANNESBURG OFFICE NODES

1993-2009 2000-2009

Take up rate Take up rate

Bedfordview/Bruma 9504 6211 Braamfontein 3029 4753

Bryanston 24639 28229 CBD -2334 7787

Constantia Basin 0 22672

Fourways 0 5455 Houghton/Killarney 0 4208

Hyde Park 3207 1688 Illovo 8458 11664

Melrose 0 6814

Midrand 28527 33843 Milpark 10372 24932

Parktown 3218 1165 Randburg 8466 7676

Rivonia 7902 -914 Rosebank 4159 3300

Sandton 46698 55738

Sunninghill 13624 15877 Woodmead 7712 13599

Source: SAPOA Office Vacancy Survey, 1993-2009



31

8. RESIDENTIAL MARKET

8.1 House prices in Johannesburg vs. the rest of South Africa The average house prices in Johannesburg are higher than those in the rest of South Africa. The graph clearly indicates the growth trend in house prices as well as the consistency in which Johannesburg outperforms the rest of the country.

Absa Group: Residential Property Perspective, 3rd q 2009



32

8.2 Growth nodes in Gauteng Maps 8.1 – 8.4 indicate the annual take-up rate of new residential units in certain sectors of Johannesburg and Pretoria. The 2006 figures reflect the peak of residential growth in each area, while 2008/9 reflects a time period which was not positive for residential development.

VAN RIEBEECKPARK

ANDERBOLT

DAWN PARK

KLIPPOORTJE

GLENVISTA

PARKVIEW

BRYANSTONNORTH RIDING

NOORDHEUWEL

RUIMSIG

MOFOLO NORTH

DHLAMINI

CRAIGHALL PARK

ELDORADO PARK

JOHANNESBURG: NEW GROWTH AREAS 2006

300 PA

VAN RIEBEECKPARK

ANDERBOLT

DAWN PARK

KLIPPOORTJE

GLENVISTA

PARKVIEW

BRYANSTONNORTH RIDING

NOORDHEUWEL

RUIMSIG

MOFOLO NORTH

DHLAMINI

CRAIGHALL PARK

ELDORADO PARK

JOHANNESBURG: NEW GROWTH AREAS 2008/9



33

MAMELODI

FAERIE GLEN

WATERKLOOF RIDGE

MUCKLENEUK

MONTANA

THE ORCHARDS

ANDEON

ELANDSPOORT

LYTTELTON

MORELETA PARK

KOEDOESPOORT

ROSSLYN

DOORNPOORT

ERASMIA

Midrand

1500 p.a

2600 p.a

800 p.a

Pretoria Growth areas 2006

600 p.a

±3000 p.a

±600 p.a

MAMELODI

FAERIE GLEN

WATERKLOOF RIDGE

MUCKLENEUK

MONTANA

THE ORCHARDS

ANDEON

ELANDSPOORT

LYTTELTON

MORELETA PARK

KOEDOESPOORT

ROSSLYN

DOORNPOORT

ERASMIA

400 p.a

650 p.a

200 p.a

Map: Pretoria Growth areas 2008

150 p.a

Midrand

±500 p.a

±75 p.a



34

General conclusions as far as the broader Johannesburg market are concerned: Based on all the above mentioned, the outstanding performance of the Gauteng Province and specifically the Johannesburg market, is very clear. This is reflected in the following:

GDP growth which has just come out of a recession; quality of the socio-economic and demographic profile; micro economic indicators turning positive again with manufacturing

leading the economic recovery;

the strength in retail growth; strong growth in the office sector; the strength of the industrial market, all during 2004-2008; the decrease in building plans approved and completed indicates the

depth of the recession and the time it will take to recover to the high growth period of 2004-2007.



35

9. BROADER MIDRAND AREA The Waterfall Business Estate forms part of the growth in the northern and north eastern suburbs of Johannesburg as well as the Midrand area. The future growth prospects for this particular precinct will be determined by growth from the north as well as from the south. The market potential will also be influenced by the micro location of this infill property.

9.1 Population numbers, growth and projections Table 9.1 as well as Photo 9.1-9.2 give an indication of the surrounding areas. Note the following:

there is currently ±105 000 households living in the area;

with a 2% growth rate this figure could increase to almost 115 000 households in 2015.



36

TABLE 9.1

TOTAL POPULATION AND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE AREA

Broader area Specific area Number of

people in area

Number of households in

area

Diepsloot NONE 47486 21486 Diepsloot Diepsloot 2247 908 Ebony Park NONE 16208 4979 Ivory Park NONE 103377 33349 Ivory Park Ivory Park 9141 2961 Midrand NONE 7730 2742 Midrand Austin View 827 310 Midrand Barbeque Downs 460 167 Midrand Blue Hills AH 2840 1020 Midrand Bridle Park AH 456 154 Midrand Carlswald AH 797 327 Midrand Country View 2138 599 Midrand Crowthorne AH 616 322 Midrand Diepsloot AH 403 153 Midrand Erand 1957 831 Midrand Erand AH 1268 479 Midrand Glen Austin AH 3707 1477 Midrand Glen Fernes 415 72 Midrand Glenferness AH 927 180 Midrand Halfway Gardens 1131 453 Midrand Halfway House 79 24 Midrand Kyalami 2406 524 Midrand Kyalami Estates 2760 1015

Midrand Noordwyk 4281 1334 Midrand President Park AH 663 266 Midrand Randjesfontein AH 1509 500 Midrand Vorna Valley 5821 2184 Midrand Waterfall 444 93 Midrand Witpoort 930 411 Rabie Ridge Rabie Ridge 17322 5451 Rabie Ridge Rabie Ridge Ext 5 4874 1567 Sandton Paulshof 4496 1928 Sandton Sunninghill 4634 1908

Total 254 350 90 174

2% Growth 2009 298 012 105 653 2% Growth 2015 322 577 114 362

4% Growth 2009 348 096 123 409 4% Growth 2015 407 223 144 371

Source: Stats SA Census 2001 projected for 2009/15


37


Photo 9.1: Broader Midrand Area

Vorna ValleyHalfway House

Buccleuch

Sunninghill

Randjesfontein

Tembisa

Kyalami

Noordwyk

Blue Hills




38

Photo 9.2: Midrand Area

Vorna Valley

Halfway House

Buccleuch

Sunninghill

Randjesfontein

Tembisa

Kyalami

Noordwyk

Blue Hills

Crowthorne

Louwlardia

Paulshof

Woodmead

Lonehill

Waterfall City



39

Photo 9.3: Micro Location of Waterfall Business Estate


40


9.2 Socio-economic and demographic profile The demographic profile of the Midrand area can be divided into two parts, namely the more affluent western part that includes suburbs like Kyalami and Crowthorne, and then the below average part to the east of the highway including Ebony Park and Ivory Park. Table 9.2 gives an indication of the current socio-economic profile of the whole Midrand area. Note the following:

the average age of the household heads is 40 years; 61% of the total population is black and 16% white; 29% English speaking households and 69% speak an African language; of all the economically active people, 33% are employed;

mainly employed in low skilled occupations, in the retail and community related sectors of the economy. 15% are employed in manufacturing;

28% have matric and higher qualifications; the median income for the total population is between R3 000 and R8 000 per

month;

26% of the total population falls within LSM 7 – 10.

It is very clear that this area has a dual socio-economic profile with people in informal houses and affluent households forming part of golf and security estates. This will clearly be highlighted in the next section.




41

TABLE 9.1 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE

OF RESIDENTS

Midrand Midrand

Age Groups % Individual Monthly Income % <19 years 39 No income 2 20 to 34 26 R1-400 15 35-54 22 R410-800 28 55+ 13 R801-1600 21

Population Groups R1601-3200 17 Black 61 R3201-6400 12 Coloured 1 R6401-12800 5 Asian 21 R12801-25600 1 White 16 R26501-51200 0

Language Groups R51201-102400 0 Afrikaans 0 R102401-204800 0 English 29 R204801+ 0

African 69 Annual Household Income Other 0 No income 19

Employment R1-4800 12 Employed 33 R4801-9600 23 Unemployed 24 R9601-19200 19 Not economically active 43 R19201-38400 19

Occupation R38401-76800 13 Legislators, officials and managers 5 R76801-153600 8 Professionals 4 R153601-307200 4 Technicians 9 R307201-614400 1 Clerks 10 R614401-1228800 0 Service 12 R1228801-2457600 0 Skilled agriculture 3 R2457600+ 0

Crafts/trade 11 Median hh income 2001 17 090 Plant and Machinery 9 Median hh income 2009 31 632 Elementary occupations 27 Median hh income pm 2009 2 636

Undetermined 9 LSM Groups

Occupation LSM 1-3 35 White Collar 32 LSM 4 19 Blue Collar 21 LSM 5-6 19 Low Skilled 47 LSM 7-9 8

Sector LSM 10 18

Agriculture 15 No of people in sub place 254 350 Mining 0 No of hh in sub place 90 174

Manufacturing 15 Dwelling Unit Electricity 1 House 45 Construction 4 Flat in block 12

Retail/Wholesale 17 Townhouse 2 Transport 4 House in back yard 1 Financial/Insurance 7 Traditional/informal dwelling 27 Community 15 Informal unit not in back yard 10 Other 0 Room/flat on shared property 2 Private household 8 Caravan/tent/other 0

Undetermined 13

Education No schooling 19 Some primary 18 Complete primary 6 Some secondary 29 Std 10/Grade 12 20 Higher 8

Source: Census 2001, adjusted for 2009



42

9.3 Socio-economic and demographic profile of the more affluent residents in the western side of Midrand:

Urban Studies Data bank The following graphs give an indication of the profile of residents in the area. This was compiled from research done by Urban Studies in the area.

4

2939

25

3

86

5 4 3 2

85

105 1

0102030405060708090

100

18-2

4

25-3

4

35-4

9

50-6

5

65+

En

glish

Afr

ikaan

s

Afr

ican

Lan

guage

Asia

n

Oth

er

Wh

ite

Bla

ck

Asia

n

Co

loure

d

Age (years) Home language Population Group

%

DEMOGRAPHICS

Average: 42 years

11 915

28

1510 12

4 4 36

3

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

<10

10-2

0

20-3

0

30-4

0

40-5

0

50-6

0

60+

LS

M1-5

LS

M 6

LS

M 7

LS

M 8

LS

M 9

LS

M 1

0

Total household income (R'000) LSM Profile

%

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE

Average: R 36 000 Median: R 39 500

Note the following: a slightly older profile than the eastern part with an average age of 45 years; 86% speaks English; A median household income of R39 500 and; 80% in the LSM10 and 10+ category.



43

9.4 Socio-economic and demographic profile of the below average households in the eastern side of Midrand:

Urban Studies Data bank This information is based on interviews conducted in the area and households forming part of the broader Ivory Park, Kaalfontein and Ebony Park residential areas. The associated graphs reflect a more affluent profile than the general households as indicated by the census statistics above. Note the following: a younger profile with an average age of 35 years; Zulu, Tswana and Pedi the most important languages; mainly representative of the young and full nest lifecycle stages; 35% in the income category <R5 000

20

36 34

9

4841

92

55

39

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

18

-24

25

-34

35

-49

50

-65

Zu

lu

So

tho

/Tsw

an

a/P

ed

i

Xh

osa

Tso

ng

a/V

en

da

Yo

un

g

Fu

ll n

est

Em

py n

est

Age (years) Home language Life Cycle

%

DEMOGRAPHICS

Average: 35 years

7

28

24

27

14

7

28

17

7

18

9

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

<3 3-5 5-10 10-20 20+ LSM 1-4

LSM 5 LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8 LSM 9 LSM 10

Total monthly income (R'000) LSM Profile

%


Average: R 8 500 Median: R 7 400



44

9.5 Building plans approved and completed5 in Midrand :2000-2009 The following graphs indicate the following: Residential growth

The number of residential units completed in Midrand peaked at 2 000 units during 2005;

Fewer but larger properties were built during the period of 2005-2007; The number of units completed dropped to just over 500 in 2008 and down to less

than 200 in 2009;

This level of residential growth is lower than what used to be before 2000. Office growth

On average between 20 000m² and 25 000m² of office space has been completed in Midrand since 2000;

This figure remains very consistent; The approval of new office rights has been very slow since 2003; This also gives an indication that not many stands are currently available for office

development;

It is also important that in certain areas older office blocks (office blocks built since 1984) have been demolished to make provision for newer and better office facilities.

Retail growth

Retail building plans approved and completed: as far as retail rights are concerned. a few stands offering between 20 000m² and 40 000m² of retail rights have been approved since 2004;

The completion of the new retail was restricted to one centre of 20 000m². This also indicates that this market is reaching saturation for the time being.

Industrial growth

Applications for new industrial space did not show major increase during the period 2000 to 2008. Electricity shortage was the main reason for this;

The approval of industrial rights of 40 000m² and higher was only reflected in 2000/2/6;

The completed industrial space averaged at approximately 10 000m² – 15 000m² per annum.

From all the above mentioned is clear that Midrand is showing:

very good residential growth, a consistent growth in the market supply of office space, a lower supply of industrial space electricity/power shortage, and a low take up rate for retail space.

5 Approved plans give an indication of the „mood‟ for development at a specific point in time (including a number of months being part of the planning approved period). Completed units/m²/rand value indicates the actual facilities where construction had been completed. This is not a reflection of whether space has been taken up or occupied.



45



46



47



48

9.6 Retail Supply in the Midrand area The broader Midrand area forms part of a number of very old regional centres as well as smaller newer community centres. Residents from the area is also strongly supporting shopping centres outside the particular study area, for instance support for Fourways, Sandton and Centurion is very prominent. The Boulders Shopping Centre mainly caters for the LSM 5-7 market from Tembisa and the surrounding township areas. The more affluent shopping facilities are located on the western side near the New Road off-ramp, were a number of new facilities have been established. There are also major plans to develop one of the largest super regional centres in South Africa on the eastern side of the N1, called Zonkizizwe. No clarity exists as far as the progress of this centre is concerned. A number of other centres are being planned and will be discussed in detail.

9.6.1 Existing retail facilities in the area

Table 9.2 indicates retail facilities in the Midrand area. The following should be noted:

In total almost 150 000m² of shopping space is located within 5 km from Midrand Central;

These retail facilities consist of a number of local and smaller convenience centres; The Boulders is the largest at almost 50 000m² mainly catering for customers living

to the east of Midrand.



49

TABLE 9.2

EXISTING RETAIL FACILITIES

Centre Classification GLA Comments

Sanridge Square Neighbourhood 9 376

Tenants are a mixture between convenience, eating places, services and some destination shops.

Carlswald Lifestyle Centre

Community 14 197

Complementing the tenant mix at Sanridge Square. Destination stores, services, eating places and convenience stores.

Midway Mews Neighbourhood 7 481

Well established convenience stores, services and eating places.

Vodacom Speciality ±2 000 Specialist cell phone and related stores

The Boulders Small regional 48 268

Small regional – broad tenant mix. Mainly serving households on the eastern side of Midrand.

Midrand City Neighbourhood 11 340 Adjacent to Boulders – forms one shopping precinct.

Vorna Valley Centre

Neighbourhood 6 000

Localised sub-urban neighbourhood centre

Noordwyk Shopping Centre

Local convenience ±2 000

The size is indicated as 5 000m²

Halfway Gardens Local convenience 1 500 Small localized centre

Value Fair – Midrand

Neighbourhood Value 11 434

Value/Big box orientated centre

Midrand Motor City Speciality 8 402 Specialist motor related centre

Corporate Park SC Neighbourhood 5 140 Link to industrial area and surrounding suburbs

Penny Lane Shopping Centre

Local convenience 2 500

Street level as part of Midrand CBD

Crowthorne Shopping Centre

Neighbourhood 6 509

Excellent convenience orientated centre catering for needs of community

Waterfall Centre Local convenience 3 000 Local Neighbourhood centre

Kyalami Downs Centre Neighbourhood 7 500

Local Neighbourhood centre

Total 146 647

Source: SA Council of Shopping Centres‟ Shopping Centre Directory 2009/10

Also see Appendix A with a detail retail analysis of facilities in this area.

Most retail facilities are neighbourhood and community type centres.



50

9.6.2 Shopping behaviour: More affluent western side of Midrand

Residents in the Kyalami area visit a number of shopping centres in the broader area. Not one shopping centre dominates. Shopping behaviour depends on the area in which the resident lives, works and where the children go to school. The following centres are visited depending on the needs of the household, as well as the offering and the location of the shopping facility. Regarding shopping behaviour, note the following:

Residents to the north of the site go to Centurion Mall, Mall @ Reds, Southdowns or even Irene Village Mall;

Residents in the central part go to Sanridge Square and Carlswald Lifestyle Centre or to smaller centres closer to home, while

Residents to the south either go to Fourways Mall, Fourways Crossing, Sandton or even to Woodmead.

Menlyn is also visited by residents to the north of the site especially for higher order shopping needs and entertainment, while those to the south go to centres towards Johannesburg for higher order purposes and entertainment.

Smaller centres in Kyalami are regarded as convenience centres catering for everyday needs of the residents.

No one shopping centre dominates. Centres in Kyalami cater for the convenience needs while a number of bigger centres are patronised for other retail products. It is clear from the above mentioned that very little support is directed to shopping facilities on the eastern side of Midrand. The western side will therefore become much more attractive for new centre development compared with eastern lower income suburbs.

9.6.3 Shopping behaviour: Below average suburbs Midrand East

People in these areas mainly support the centre that is closest to them and where transport is available. Therefore the centres in Tembisa are mainly supported. Note the following:

The two community type centres in Tembisa is more or less the same size at ±18000m² each;

most of the retail support is still directed towards the Kempton Park area especially Festival Mall as well as the Midrand area with The Boulders.

This area will in future cater more for the lower LSM groups and a number of centres have already been established in the Eastern quadrant.



51

9.6.4 Rental levels

The table and graph below indicates the rental growth for different size centres in the different metropolitan areas. The annual growth in rental levels are also in line with escalation rates of 8-10%. TABLE 9.3

RENTAL LEVELS IN GAUTENG AND SELECTED OTHER PROVINCES (R/m²/month)

Type of Retail Facility 2007

June

2008

June

2009

June

% Growth

per annum

Super Regionals – Gauteng 205 224 238 8%

Regionals – Gauteng 118 129 145 11%

Small Regionals – Gauteng 109 121 121 5%

Community – Gauteng 132 146 158 9%

Average Rentals - Gauteng 141 155 168 9%

Regionals - Western Cape 150 146 164 5%

Small Regionals - Eastern Cape 104 129 129 11%



52

9.7 Industrial Developments The main industrial nodes that will have an effect on future industrial development at the Waterfall Business Estate node, are as follows:

Linbro Industrial Park - located on the N3 at Marlboro Road Longmeadow Business Park – located on the N3 at Modderfontein Road Grand Central Airport area Randtjespark

These nodes are listed in detail in Appendix D. The following is important to note for each node. Linbro Park Linbro Industrial Park is a well situated industrial node in terms of the accessibility, visibility, proximity to the market and location of other uses. There are currently a very low percentage of vacancies and expansion of the node is possible in future. The main focus in terms of the type of industrial uses is mostly car related, pharmaceutical, electronics and steel companies. Longmeadow The Longmeadow industrial node is recently established and has shown good growth. The location of this node is ideal for the surrounding market and it is close to logistical hubs. This node is mainly focused on distribution centres, logistic companies and Bidvest productions. Grand Central The Grand Central industrial area is mainly related to the activities at the Grand Central Airport. There are currently numerous vacancies and future growth looks bleak. Randjiespark The Randjiespark industrial area is mainly focussed on distribution warehousing. This node developed because of the good visibility from the highway and its ideal central location.



53

Table 9.4 shows the mean prime industrial market rentals in R/m² per month for the industrial nodes in close proximity to Waterfall Business Estate.

The rentals for industrial space of 1 000m² in and around Midrand varies between R55 per m² to R40 per m²;

The lowest rentals were achieved in the older Halfway House industrial areas, while the highest levels were achieved for Cambridge Park, Linbro Park and Samrand Centurion;

This also clearly indicates that the newer facilities are achieving higher rentals. TABLE 9.4

Mean prime industrial market rentals

(R/m² p.m.)

Area size

leased in

m²

1000

2008Q4 46.67

2009Q1 52

2009Q2 50

2008Q4 43.4

2009Q1 44.4

2009Q2 41.4

2008Q4 42.5

2009Q1 44

2009Q2 39

2008Q4 52

2009Q1 53.29

2009Q2 50.2

2008Q4 43

2009Q1 43.67

2009Q2 41.25

2008Q4 50

2009Q1 52.5

2009Q2 55

2008Q4 46.4

2009Q1 46.75

2009Q2 46.25

Kyalami Business Park

Samrand Centurion

Marlboro North

Linbro Park

Cambridge Park

Halfway House:

Richards Drive

Halfway House: hi-tech

strip



54

The following table shows the growth in Linbro Park and Longmeadow since the beginning of 2008. Therefore the average annual take up rate of industrial space was 12 500m² and 64 000m² for Linbro Park and Longmeadow respectively. TABLE 9.5

NEW INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN LINBRO PARK AND LONGMEADOW SINCE 2008

Linbro Park Longmeadow

Stands Size (m²) Stands Size (m²)

1* 7 000 1 10 000

2 8 000 2 15 000

3 2 000 3 20 000

4 8 000 4 8 000

25 000 5 45 000

6 30 000

128 000

*The stands are located on Photos 9.4 and 9.5 below

Activities in these two areas are mainly driven by the availability of electricity and the age of the different areas. Linbro Park is much older and more built up than the more recent developed Longmeadow area. The following two maps indicate the stands that were developed in Linbro Park and Longmeadow since the end of 2007:


55


Photo 9.4: Linbro Park

12

3

4



56


Photo 9.5: Longmeadow

1

4

3 5

2

6



57


9.8 Office market in Midrand and adjacent office nodes According to Table 7.2, note the following:

the supply of office space in the suburbs of Woodmead, Sunninghill, Fourways and Midrand is 1.3 million m² for 2009;

the vacancy rate is currently 7.3%; All this clearly indicates the attractiveness of offices in this northern sector of Johannesburg. (See Map 7.1)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

No

v-9

3

No

v-9

4

No

v-9

5

No

v-9

6

No

v-9

7

No

v-9

8

No

v-9

9

No

v-0

0

No

v-0

1

No

v-0

2

No

v-0

3

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

MIDRAND: OFFICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1993-2009

Supply Demand

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

No

v-9

3

No

v-9

4

No

v-9

5

No

v-9

6

No

v-9

7

No

v-9

8

No

v-9

9

No

v-0

0

No

v-0

1

No

v-0

2

No

v-0

3

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

WOODMEAD/SUNNINGHILL: OFFICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1993-2009

Supply Demand

*Adjustment in the area of reporting

*




58

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Mar

-03

Jan

-04

No

v-0

4

Sep

-05

Jul-

06

May

-07

Mar

-08

Jan

-09

No

v-0

9

m²

FOURWAYS: OFFICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2003-2009

Supply Demand

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

No

v-9

3

No

v-9

4

No

v-9

5

No

v-9

6

No

v-9

7

No

v-9

8

No

v-9

9

No

v-0

0

No

v-0

1

No

v-0

2

No

v-0

3

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

CENTURION: SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1993-2009

Supply Demand



59

Table 9.5 shows the market rentals for office buildings in four different areas. These areas have their own significant characteristics and it is important to take note of all of them. It is clear that the Sunninghill market eroded in the last 12-18 months, Midrand showed neither positive nor negative growth, and the Rivonia market experienced good growth in rental levels. TABLE 9.5

MONTHLY RENTAL RATES OF OFFICE NODES IN SURROUNDING AREAS

It is very important to understand that the office market is mainly driven by the more affluent suburbs and decision makers in most western cities. Both situated in the north/north western sectors, clearly corresponding with the level of affluence, quality residential units as well as the presence of decision makers of large companies.

Market rental rates for office buildings (R/m² per month)

Woodmead

2008Q4 116 101.1 80.8

2009Q1 116.75 108.83 82

2009Q2 112.83 105.1 85.4

Sunninghill

2008Q4 112.5 97.4 95

2009Q1 109.5 94.5 85

2009Q2 102.67 94 84.33

Midrand

2008Q4 93 84.33 70.83

2009Q1 93.25 83.2 70.2

2009Q2 92.2 84.57 71.14

Rivonia

2008Q4 101.7 92.86 75.17

2009Q1 106.75 95 75.5

2009Q2 111.33 97.86 82.1

Office NodesGrade A+ Grade A Grand B



60

9.9 House prices and sales in the area In this section the focus is on the residential market, focusing on single residential units and multiple units in specific suburbs portraying similar characteristics than the proposed Waterfall Business Estate.

9.10 Single residential units According to the tables and the graphs, note the following:

in total more than 10 000 residential units came on the market in these residential areas since 2001;

the majority forms part of Noordwyk and Kyalami; these figures also include sales prices of stands; because of the diversity of the different suburbs that were included in this section,

the price parameters had to be adjusted to include all sales. All sales from R300 000 to R5million were included.

TABLE 9.6

NUMBER OF HOUSE SALES AND PRICES

Suburb Year No of sales Ave Price % Increase

2008/9

Country View 2001 3 336000

2002 17 382000

2003 21 512000

2004 30 547000

2005 29 698000

2006 34 758000

2007 66 741000

2008 15 671000

2009 4 733000

219 14% 9.2%

Noordwyk 2001 24 504000

2002 55 423000

2003 119 643000

2004 170 491000

2005 180 537000

2006 265 714000

2007 250 748000

2008 160 743000

2009 62 805000

1285 8% 8.3%

Vorna Valley 2001 93 431000

2002 107 428000

2003 115 468000

2004 216 857000

2005 147 822000

2006 147 1061000

2007 124 1192000

2008 75 1097000

2009 41 967000

1065 14% -11.9%

Sunninghill 2001 174 481000

2002 177 632000

2003 190 727000

2004 226 961000

2005 240 978000

2006 184 1273000

2007 196 1479000

2008 162 1554000

2009 87 1366000



61

1636 19% -12.1%

Paulshof 2001 102 475000

2002 118 642000

2003 126 692000

2004 112 907000

2005 132 1059000

2006 101 1261000

2007 114 1521000

2008 94 1201000

2009 58 1283000

957 18% 6.8%

Kyalami 2001 84 1061000

2002 109 968000

2003 172 1268000

2004 261 1159000

2005 255 1350000

2006 261 1293000

2007 507 996000

2008 180 1685000

2009 83 1835000

1912 10% 8.9%

Halfway House 2001 11 815000

2002 17 1836000

2003 15 1371000

2004 24 1564000

2005 22 1575000

2006 32 2276000

2007 22 2587000

2008 15 2107000

2009 3 2533000

161 21% 20.2%

Buccleuch 2001 68 455000

2002 92 445000

2003 96 554000

2004 122 675000

2005 104 815000

2006 119 890000

2007 125 1190000

2008 54 1034000

2009 32 917000

812 12% -11.3%

Woodmead 2001 106 904000

2002 97 911000

2003 99 1227000

2004 164 828000

2005 110 1409000

2006 100 1886000

2007 75 2168000

2008 59 2399000

2009 30 2259000

840 16% -5.8%

Halfway Gardens 2001 79 1055000

2002 113 836000

2003 123 680000

2004 145 675000

2005 177 1064000

2006 159 850000

2007 216 896000

2008 76 1132000

2009 62 1331000

1150 4% 17.6%

Source: Property24.com



62

The number of sales in single residential units during the 9 year period from 2001 -2009 clearly reflects a very active market in the >R1 million category. In total more than 10 000 single housing units were sold with the highest peak periods during 2004 – 2007;

The number of sales peaked during 2007 at almost 1 700 units, subsequent to this there have been a substantial decrease, reflecting the poor economic conditions during 2008 and 2009;

Average house prices during 2009 various between R700 000 up to R2.5 million; During 2008/9 some suburbs reflected good growth, while others indicated negative

growth; 45% of all the sales in this market was in the price range R1 million to R2

million; A further 16% was sold in four different price categories of R2 million+. This clearly

emphasise the nature of this market, reflecting a high socio economic status area.

Future development in this area will strongly be influenced by current and historical trends.

TABLE 9.7

GROWTH IN THE MARKET

Suburb No of sales

2001-9 Ave Price 2009 % Increase 2008/9

Country View 219 733 000 9.2% Noordwyk 1285 805 000 8.3% Vorna Valley 1065 967 000 -11.9% Sunninghill 1636 1 366 000 -12.1% Paulshof 957 1 283 000 6.8% Kyalami 1912 1 835 000 10.0% Halfway House 161 2 533 000 7.6% Buccleuch 812 917 000 -11.3% Woodmead 840 2 259 000 -5.8% Halfway Gardens 1150 1 331 000 17.6%

Total 10037 Source: Property24.com



63

744

902

1076

14701396 1402

1695

890

462

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TOTAL SALES PER YEAR

TABLE 9.8

PRICE CATEGORY PER SUBURB

R300000-R500000

R500000-R800000

R800000-R1m R1m-R2m >R2m

Buccleuch 3 5 16 8 0

Woodmead 1 1 0 10 18 Halfway

Gardens 0 0 0 3 0 Vorna Valley 2 8 13 18 0

Paulshof 3 9 2 40 2

Country View 0 3 0 1 0 Kyalami 8 9 2 27 37

Sunninghill 3 6 8 62 8 Noordwyk 9 32 10 10 1

Halfway Houses 0 0 0 3 0

Total 29 73 51 182 66

% 7 18 13 45 16 Source: Property24.com



64

7

18

13

45

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

R300

000-

R500

000

R500

000-

R800

000

R800

000-

R1m

R1m

-R2m

>R2m

%

% OF SALES IN EACH PRICE CATEGORY:HOUSE SALES

9.11 Multiple units According to Table 9.9, the number of multiple units sold in this area represents more than 17 000 units. This clearly reflects the popularity of this particular area. Sales prices for multiple units were included between R300 000 to R5 million (see graph).

The multiple unit market is very strong in this segment of the market with more than 17 000 sales during 2001 – 2009;

Suburbs like Halfway House Gardens, Sunninghill, Paulshof and Vorna Valley reflected >2 000 sales;

The price range for multiple units is from R540 000 to R1.4 million; Most areas have shown a decrease in house prices during 2008/9; The most active years were 2005-2007, during which more than 3 000 units were

sold per annum. This dropped to very low levels in 2009;

It is a very good reflection of what could be expected during different economic cycles;

The most popular price range was between R500 000 and R800 000 (50% of all sales);

Only 14% of the units were sold for more than R1 million; This indicates a very active market with almost 3 700 multiple units sold in total during 2007.



65

TABLE 9.9 NUMBER OF MULTIPLE UNIT SALES AND PRICES

Suburb Year No of sales Ave Price % Increase

2008/9

Country View 2001 29 150000

2002 38 144000

2003 47 193000

2004 45 395000

2005 256 503000

2006 101 605000

2007 75 828000

2008 87 837000

2009 15 600000

693 26% -28.3%

Noordwyk 2001 29 156000

2002 28 192000

2003 58 251000

2004 85 373000

2005 57 427000

2006 276 583000

2007 349 602000

2008 173 650000

2009 11 538000

1066 23% -17.2%

Vorna Valley 2001 28 200000

2002 92 240000

2003 244 249000

2004 227 340000

2005 330 419000

2006 713 454000

2007 704 537000

2008 353 650000

2009 69 525000

2760 17% -19.2%

Sunninghill 2001 6 329000

2002 49 351000

2003 582 464000

2004 703 541000

2005 662 567000

2006 970 650000

2007 701 749000

2008 284 851000

2009 161 789000

4118 16% -7.3%

Paulshof 2001 32 307000

2002 57 372000

2003 328 442000

2004 251 504000

2005 600 519000

2006 533 533000

2007 693 705000

2008 666 810000

2009 259 845000

3419 18% 4.3%

Kyalami 2001 0 0

2002 2 671000

2003 1 640000

2004 64 532000

2005 349 699000

2006 91 816000

2007 156 748000

2008 91 847000

2009 43 864000



66

797 4% 2.0%

Halfway House 2001 9 412000

2002 16 345000

2003 18 406000

2004 19 525000

2005 25 721000

2006 25 727000

2007 64 804000

2008 47 1127000

2009 14 1384000

237 22% 22.8%

Buccleuch 2001 10 314000

2002 14 363000

2003 45 390000

2004 160 396000

2005 250 435000

2006 240 501000

2007 434 549000

2008 151 589000

2009 47 588000

1351 11% -0.2%

Woodmead 2001 21 555000

2002 25 575000

2003 60 695000

2004 81 594000

2005 83 898000

2006 71 906000

2007 70 1167000

2008 36 1299000

2009 13 1060000

460 11% -18.4%

Halfway Gardens 2001 38 465000

2002 18 308000

2003 96 352000

2004 503 391000

2005 799 446000

2006 712 541000

2007 496 577000

2008 300 611000

2009 84 607000

3 046 5% -0.7%

Source: Property24.com

TABLE 9.10

CHANGE IN MULTIPLE – UNIT PRICES 2007/8 PER SUBURB

Suburb No of sales

2001-9 Ave Price 2009 % Increase 2008/9

Country View 693 600 000 -28.3% Noordwyk 1066 538 000 -17.2% Vorna Valley 2760 525 000 -19.2% Sunninghill 4118 789 000 -7.3% Paulshof 3419 845 000 4.3% Kyalami 797 864 000 10.0% Halfway House 237 1 384 000 7.6% Buccleuch 1351 588 000 -0.2% Woodmead 460 1 060 000 -18.4% Halfway Gardens 3046 607 000 -0.7%

Total 17 947 Source: Property24.com



67

202339

1479

2138

3411

3732 3742

2188

716

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TOTAL SALES PER YEAR

TABLE 9.11

PRICE CATEGORIES PER AREA

R300000-R500000

R500000-R800000

R800000-R1m R1m-R2m >R2m

Buccleuch 26 17 3 1 0 Woodmead 0 3 3 6 0 Halfway Gardens 17 59 7 1 0 Vorna Valley 33 35 0 1 0 Paulshof 13 112 82 49 3 Country View 7 5 1 2 0 Kyalami 1 18 18 5 1 Sunninghill 9 100 29 21 2 Noordwyk 3 7 1 0 0 Halfway Houses 2 3 1 6 2

Total 111 359 145 92 8

% 16 50 20 13 1 Source: Property24.com



68

All the above mentioned confirm a very active single residential market in the price range above R1 million and multiple unit market in the price range of R500 000 – R800 000. The annual take up rates of existing and new houses were amongst the highest in South Africa. This clearly indicates the attractiveness of the broader market for residential development.



69

10. NODAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE IN GREATER JOHANNESBURG The main reason for this comparison is to highlight specific trends in similar areas that could be applicable in the development of Waterfall Business Estate. It is also important to take cognisance of other nodal developments in the same sector of the Gauteng Province. Included are references to the fast growth:

in Fourways to the west of the development, Sunninghill/Rivonia to the south of the development and Centurion to the north of the development.

10.1 Centurion

LOCATION, CURRENT POSITIONING AND DYNAMIC NATURE

Centurion has developed into one of the fastest growing residential, retail and commercial areas in the country. For the first time the link between Johannesburg and the southern part of Centurion has clearly established itself to fully complete this development corridor. Based on its location, Centurion currently represents amongst the highest retail and residential growth and this will continue in future.



70

Centurion Area

The Reeds

Heuweloord

Rooihuiskraal

Louwlardia

Raslouw

Valhalla

Olievenhoutbosch

Clubview

Highveld

Eldoraigne

Sunderland Ridge

Pierre van Ryneveld Park

The growth in Centurion will be southwards strengthening the link between Pretoria and Johannesburg.



71

POPULATION NUMBERS, GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS

In total almost 55 000 households live within Centurion.

Area Number of

people in area

Number of households

in area

Total 141 538 46 838

2% Growth 2009 165 834 54 878 2% Growth 2015 179 504 59 402

4% Growth 2009 193 705 64 101 4% Growth 2015 226 607 74 989


69% of the economically active people are employed; 59% is employed in white collar occupations; the median household income is between R25 000 and R32 000 per month 68% is in LSM 10 72% have matric and higher qualifications

Study area

Greater Tshwane

Study area

Greater Tshwane

Age Groups Median hh income 2001 129 692 51 841 <19 years 28 32 Median hh income 2009 240 050 95 955

20 to 34 31 32 Median hh income pm 2009 25 004 8 000

35-54 30 26 LSM Groups 55+ 11 10 LSM 1-3 10 14

Population Groups LSM 4 8 16 Black 25 62 LSM 5-6 7 17 Coloured 1 2 LSM 7-9 6 16 Asian 10 2 LSM 10 68 36

White 63 35 Education

Employment No schooling 4 7 Employed 69 50 Some primary 5 8 Unemployed 6 19 Complete primary 2 4 Not economically active 25 31 Some secondary 17 28

Occupation Std 10/Grade 12 35 33 White Collar 59 48 Higher 37 20 Blue Collar 16 16 Low Skilled 25 36



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RETAIL SUPPLY – ABOVE 20 000m²

Centre GLA

Centurion Retail Node: 1.

Centurion Mall & Boulevard 104 701

Centurion Lifestyle Centre 55 000

Mall @ Reds 50 000

Eco Boulevard 35 000

Irene Village Mall 30 000

Centurion Retail Facilities

The Centurion Mall was extended 4 years ago, offering a very large super regional retail outlet. The retail offering is still very traditional. This market is very strong and the most important future competitor might be the Zonkizizwe and Forest Hill developments. The impact of these malls on Waterfall Business Estate will be determined once more detail is available on both these developments.

OFFICE MARKET

Most future office growth will take place in Centurion Central mainly because of the influence of the Gautrain Station. Supply (m²) 332 906

Demand (m²) 315 695

Vacancy % 5.2

Growth direction



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% Growth 2000-2009 6.3

Further growth expected. The Gautrain station will also stimulate further development.

RESIDENTIAL GROWTH

This area is earmarked for major residential growth with more than 22 000 housing units in the pipeline. Future economic growth will determine the tempo of housing demand.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

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CENTURION: SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1993-2009

Supply Demand



74

10.2 Fourways


In terms of residential, office and retail facilities this is one of the fastest growing nodes in South Africa. The area also forms part of the most affluent sector of Johannesburg with high disposable income households and lifestyles, driven by competition and expenditure. The node covers a very wide area with developments on various fronts. There is still land available for development in as well as on the fringe of the node. Future growth will mainly take place towards the northwest of the current node. The office address will remain very good. It is expected that this area will continue growing as an office and commercial node. The residential market will remain very attractive. This is a very good example of what could happen at Waterfall Business Estate.

Fourways Area

Bloubosrand

Broadacres

FourwaysGardens

Dainfern

Lonehill

Jukskei Park

Witkoppen

Beverley

Cedar Lakes

Magaliessig

Paulshof

The green shading indicates the growth areas: Fourways is one of the fastest growing sub areas in South Africa. The growth tempo of Waterfall Business Estate as well as the type of development will closely resemble the Fourways node.

±10 000 housing units planned



75

POPULATION NUMBERS, GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS – TOTAL MARKET

According to Table 1, the broader Fourways node consists of ±77 000 households, which will increase to almost 96 000 by 2018. This is based on 4% growth, which is in line with the high growth experienced in Gauteng Province.

Fourways area

People in

catchment

area

Households in catchment area

4% Growth 2009 194 326 76 522 4% Growth 2018 245 884 96 825 5% Growth 2009 209 787 82 610 5% Growth 2018 281 134 110 706


74% of the economically active people are employed; 55% is in white collar occupations; the median household income is R35 000 per month; 66% is in LSM 7-10; 74% have matric and higher qualifications and the more affluent sector of the market earn well above R30 000 per month

Study area

Greater Jhb

Study area

Greater Jhb

Age Groups Median hh income 2001 175 105 27 841 <19 years 27 31 Median hh income 2009 300 099 47 715 20 to 34 28 35 Median hh income pm 2009 25 008 3 976

35-54 34 25 LSM Groups 55+ 11 9

Population Groups LSM 1-3 7 19 Black 36 77 LSM 4 13 22 Coloured 1 5 LSM 5-6 7 20 Asian 2 3 LSM 7-9 7 11 White 61 15 LSM 10 66 28

Employment Education Employed 74 44 No schooling 2 7

Unemployed 4 28 Some primary 5 10 Not economically active 23 27 Complete primary 2 6

Occupation Some secondary 16 36 White Collar 55 44 Std 10/Grade 12 29 28 Blue Collar 14 16 Higher 45 13 Low Skilled 30 39



76

RETAIL SUPPLY – ABOVE 20 000m²

The area represents one of the strongest retail areas in South Africa with more than 320 000m². The area is very scattered with no one shopping mall dominating.

Fourways Retail Facilities

Centre GLA Suburb

Broadacres Lifestyle Centre 24 150 Broadacres

Fourways Mall 62 109 Fourways

Fourways Crossing 47 790 Fourways

Cedar Square 43 113 Fourways

Montecasino 27 158 Fourways

Design Quarter 25 000 Fourways



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OFFICE MARKET

The area has also developed into a very strong office market. Supply (m²) 124 306

Demand (m²) 116 112

Vacancy % 6.6

% Growth 2000-2007 11.2

RESIDENTIAL GROWTH

Apart from the current new developments in this area, a further 10 000 residential units will be built directly to the north of Dainfern. In total almost 20 000 new housing units will be built in this area over the next 10 – 15 years. Most of these residents will be part of the high socio-economic profile, professionals and households, with a very high disposable income. All this will impact on further development in the Fourways area.

OTHER ACTIVITIES

A wide variety of other facilities are also represented in this area. Included are a number of hotels, theatres, entertainment and Montecasino. This represents a very strong mixed use market.



78

10.3 Sunninghill/Rivonia


This is also the area closest to Waterfall Business Estate. Since the 1990s this area has developed into a strong office node. The one section on the southern side of the highway is outdated and needs an upgrade, while new offices are being built on the northern side. Residential growth is mainly in the newer suburbs on the northern side.

Sunninghill/Rivonia Area

Woodmead

SunninghillPaulshof

Rivonia

Buccleuch

Gallo Manor

Petervale

Lonehill



79

POPULATION NUMBERS, GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS

The number of permanent households in the area is only ±20 000 units. There is, however, strong growth taking place in the area north of Sunninghill.

Area Number of people in

area

Number of households

in area

Total 40 548 16 981 2% Growth 2009 47 508 19 896

2% Growth 2015 51 425 21 536 4% Growth 2009 55 493 23 240

4% Growth 2015 64 919 27 187


75% of the economically active people are employed 55% are employed in white collar occupations the monthly median household income is >R20 000 per month 60% represents LSM 7-10+ 73% have matric and higher qualifications the affluent sector of the market earns >R30 000 per month

Study area

Greater Jhb

Study area

Greater Jhb

Age Groups Median hh income 2001 145922 27841 <19 years 22 31 Median hh income 2008 270091 44181 20 to 34 26 35 Median hh income pm 2008 22508 3682

35-54 36 25 LSM Groups 55+ 16 9 LSM 1 0 0

Population Groups LSM 2-3 7 19 Black 37 77 LSM 4 18 22 Coloured 1 5 LSM 5-6 8 20 Asian 3 3 LSM 7-9 7 14 White 59 15 LSM 10 60 24

Employment Education Employed 75 44 No schooling 3 7 Unemployed 2 28 Some primary 6 10 Not economically active 22 27 Complete primary 3 6

Occupation Some secondary 16 36 White Collar 55 44 Std 10/Grade 12 25 28 Blue Collar 11 16 Higher 48 13 Low Skilled 34 39



80

RETAIL SUPPLY ABOVE 20 000m²

Rivonia Retail Facilities

Centre GLA Suburb

Rivonia Square 26419 Rivonia

Rivonia Village 20870 Rivonia

Woodmead Retail Park 52333 Woodmead

Woodmead Value Mart 17222 Woodmead

The area is characterised by a large number of smaller convenience and community centres falling within the broader catchment areas of Fourways Mall and Sandton City. It is very well provided with retail facilities, although more on a neighbourhood/community level. The nature of the retail is very dispersed with no major concentration.

OTHER ACTIVITIES

The Rivonia office market has developed into one of the strongest decentralised office nodes in Johannesburg with low vacancies and high growth. Currently 25 000 are employed in this area. This is one of the outstanding characteristics of the Rivonia/Sunninghill area.

RESIDENTIAL GROWTH

Rivonia is fairly stable with little new developments, although Sunninghill is still in a process of filling up.



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OFFICE MARKET

Sunninghill/Woodmead

Supply (m²) 702 246

Demand (m²) 650 705

Vacancy % 7.3

% Growth 2000-2007 4.4

0

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200000

300000

400000

500000

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WOODMEAD/SUNNINGHILL: OFFICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1993-2009

Supply Demand



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11. MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE The Market Attractiveness Scores6 were developed by Urban Studies to give an indication of the past, current and expected growth taking place in each node. Table 13.1 gives an indication of the Market Attractiveness Scores for the different nodes in close proximity and in the same quadrant as Waterfall Business Estate. The scores in these areas are substantially higher than the average (Market Attractiveness Index 100 = Average). According to Table 13.1 note the following:

very strong market in Sandton; very strong market in the Fourways area; strong markets in Centurion and Menlyn as well as Centurion, Fourways, Midrand and Sunninghill all fall under the Top 10 sub-nodes in

South Africa. TABLE 11.1

MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE PER SUB-NODE RANKED FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST

Town/Suburb Market

Attractiveness Score

Market Attractiveness

Index

% Score

Sandton 273 165 85

Cape Town CBD/V&A Waterfront 257 156 80

Century City 242 146 76

Fourways 236 143 74

Umhlanga/Gateway 230 139 72

Centurion 229 139 71

Menlyn 225 136 70

Midrand 219 133 68

Tyger Valley 215 130 67

Rivonia/Sunninghill 213 129 67

Bryanston 208 126 65

Brooklyn 204 123 64

Woodmead 203 123 63

Southern Suburbs (Cape Town) 202 122 63

Morningside 200 121 62

Rosebank 200 121 62

Illovo/Melrose Arch 191 115 60

In comparison with the high scores of the surrounding sub-nodes it could be expected that Waterfall Business Estate will have the same rating after the initial

6 The MAS for each nodal area was based on the following variables: total workforce; composition; office floor area; office

vacancy; business image; strength of node (image); size of retail attraction/centres; conference facilities; tourists; growth prospects for current node - residential growth; LSM profile etc. Each area was then rated based on knowledge and understanding of the area. Certain weights were assigned to certain variables. The total score reflects the MAS for each area. In the analysis of these scores different scores/index figures were used namely:

an index figure based on the average MAS for the 67 analysed nodes expressed as a percentage, i.e. o MASi X 100 o Averagei-3 1 where:

MASi is the individual score and

Average-3 is the average of all nodes



83

starting phase.

11.1 Age of the surrounding nodes The most important aspects regarding the nodes discussed above are the following:

the very important economic role they play in the market in terms of acting as catalysts for strong mixed use growth in the node;

the timeframe of the existing nodes clearly indicate the following: o a close correlation with GDP growth and o the catalytic nature of these strong nodes.

Table 11.2 indicates the age of the different nodes. TABLE 11.2

AGE OF NODES

Node Age

Centurion First established in 1984. Accelerated growth since 1999

Fourways 1993/4. Strong growth since 2000

Sunninghill Early 1990‟s with strong growth since 2000

Midrand 1985. Very strong growth since 2000

East Rand Mall Late 1980s with specific growth since 1994/5

All this indicates that these nodes reached an excellent growth rate only after 10 – 15 years. Waterfall Business Estate could be different in reflecting the same growth in a shorter time period because of its location and infill opportunities.



84

12. NEW DEVELOPMENTS The following tables (Tables 12.1-12.4) give a summary of the new residential developments in the Midrand area and the status of that development, currently. The completed tables are attached as Appendix B .From these tables note the following:

Since 2007, 5 749 residential units were completed in the broader Midrand area;

Most of these completed units were in Halfway Gardens, Erand Gardens and Noordwyk;

3 409 units were suspended because of the poor economic conditions during 2009;

Only 306 units are still under construction and almost completed, and

870 are still at an early stage of construction.

This clearly indicates the impact the low economic growth period had on residential development in the area. These activities will resume once the economy has recovered efficiently to stimulate strong GDP growth.

TABLE 12.1

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MIDRAND AREA: PHASES OF DEVELOPMENT

Construction Phases

Suburb Activity

suspended Almost

completed Awaiting rezoning Completed

In process

Low activity

Not started yet still

selling stands

Summerset Ext 20

68 Allandale

120

Barbeque Downs 170

133 51 Blue Hills 9

112

Blue Hills Ext 21.

199

Carlswald

99

339 Country View

28

Eran Gardens 30

1247 143

770 Grand Central Ext 13

171

Grand Central Ext 3

159 Halfway Gardens 191

1121 65

Kyalami 212 8

371 239

55

Midridge Ext 12

325 Noordwyk

671

President Park Ext 2 0 Sagewood 2758

486

201

Vorna Valley 39

288

Willaway

21 214 Grand Total 3 409 306 120 5 749 870 201 825

Source: Urban Studies field survey, 2009



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TABLE 12.2

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SUNNINGHILL AREA: PHASES OF DEVELOPMENT

Construction Phases

Suburb In Process Planning Total

Beverley 143 143 Paulshof 615

615

Paulshof Ext 54 34

34 Sunninghill 380 300 680

Sunninghill Ext 84 9

9 Sunninghill Gardens 135

135

Grand Total 1 316 300 1 616 Source: Urban Studies field survey, 2009

The Sunninghill area still shows good growth and 1 316 are in progress.

It is also important that in spite of low economic growth during the last year a number of units has been announced in the Midrand area. In total almost 3 000 units are on the drawing board;

Most of these facilities are north of the Halfway House area. TABLE 12.3

RECENTLY ANNOUNCED DEVELOPMENTS IN MIDRAND AREA

Name Address No of Units Sold Unsold Price Sizes

Blue Valley Estate Blue Valley 1500 800 700 500000 700m2 to 870m2

Phoenix View Estate c/o 14th Av & Galencia Rd 496 0 496 440000 to 760000 Crowthorne Estate Whisken Rd 16 8 8 1280000 to 1920000 2000m² stands

The Sparrow Pretorius Rd 22 22 0 500000 to 610000 2 bedrooms

Gaja Janadel Rd 38 12 26 515000 71.2m2

Everglades c/o Gibson & Buccleigh Dr 40 3 37 569000 to 659000 72m2 to 84 m2

32 Wessels Rd 32 Wessels Rd 6 0 6 18500 m2

Edenspring 12 th Av. Edenburg 16 0 16 1000000 to 1200000

Busy with rezoning to fit in more units

Grand Central Complex Diagonal/Grand Centra/ Market/Church F1 64 64 0

Grand Central Complex F2 84 84 0 Grand Central Complex F 3& F4 153 0 153 Next to Midmill Estate 8 th Ave

Summit Heights Waterloo/Landmarks/Oshpro 450 Villa Montigo Langeveld Rd

Total 2885 993 1442


A number of commercial activities are planned for Midrand including warehouses and distribution in the vicinity of Corporate Park. More office developments are planned throughout the area. There is no clear indication as to what the future of the Zonkizizwe development will be.


86


TABLE 12.4

RECENTLY ANNOUNCED COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MIDRAND AREA

Business Address Comments

Corporate Park South Old Johannesburg Rd

3-Blocks of 2000m² each, available for Warehousing & Distribution. Waiting for tenants before progressing with project. Land only leveled. Johan 011 300 3900

c/o Olifantsfontein Rd & Old Pta Rd

Just before Allandale Rd 8600m² - planned for tunnels for agricultural use. Werner 083 271 5814

c/o 16 th Ave & Old Pta Rd

3200m² Warehouse & 800m² Office space. Looking for tenants before progressing with project. Ryan 011 775 1307

c/o Maxwell & Peltier Rd

Offices being constructed for Massmart & Makro. 4 to 5 storeys. Directors not prepared to release any info. Dianne 031 259 3140

Bentley Office Park Bevan Rd Renovating offices.

Carlswald Close c/o 7th Ave & New Rd 4000m² office space. Looking for tenants before progressing with project. Jopie 082 499 3208.

Alllandale Business & Retail Park K101 & Le Roux Rd Warehousing. Waiting for info from Selben 011 894 1904

c/o K101 & Jonic Vacant land. No activity.

c/o K101 & Church Groundworks. No information.

Between K101 & Grand Central Between K101 & Grand Central

72000m² for Mixed use ie. residential, retail, hotel & commercial. Waiting for tenants, no hurry as land is prime property opposite Gautrain station. Gavin 011 286 7822

Big Building Between Waterloo/Landmark/Oshpro

Could be Warehousing, Offices. No info available as NON DISCLOSURE agreement exists. Marty Jasper 011 770 8000

Zonkizizwe c/o New Rd & Old Pretoria Rd

1million m² Old Mutual mixed use development. Project STOPPED, can't obtain necessary rights for the project. Old Mutual Investment Group

Johannesburg Centre of Education & Dialogue K101 & Le Roux Rd

Mosque (replica of mosque in Istanbul). Big tourist attraction, non-profitable organisation. Schools for 800 pupils. Residential for staff, hostel.

Shopping centre 2 200m², traditional shops ( small bazaar ), clinic for 50 people, dining facility for poor people, sport facilities, possible school facility.

Development on 10 ha, cost R300m, Mosque complete end 2011. Project to be completed within 5 years.




87


According to Me Tshepiso Lintsoane the following planning guidelines apply to the Kyalami area adjacent to the north of Waterfall Business Estate:

In terms of the Northern Areas Framework (NAF) Erven 5-10, RE/4 and 2/4 Kyalami A.H is earmarked for a district mixed use nodal core, permitting uses such as high density residential, accommodation, education, medical, business (offices, retail and entertainment). This NAF should be read in conjunction with the Growth Management Strategy which categorises and prioritises areas into three:

High priority areas (2008-2011) are Marginalised Areas and Public Transportation Priority Areas

Medium Priority Areas (2011-2015) are Consolidated areas and Expansion areas Long Term Priority (2020) Peri Urban areas

Kyalami has serious infrastructure constraints. Kyalami falls within the Consolidated Areas (medium term) which means in terms of capital investment and immediate remedial infrastructure upgrading, the Municipality may only commit to invest on infrastructure between year 2011- 2015. Unless the service providers can proof that the existing infrastructure can accommodate the proposed development, no development will be supported in the area. Residential Development The whole north western sector (north of Main and east of the R55) will not develop into smaller residential units in the near future. It may take 10 years+ to start with subdividing these agricultural holdings because of the planning guidelines not allowing it and resistance from estate owners. The same applies for some of the existing Crowthorne and Carlswald agricultural holdings to the east and north east of the site. The state owns the 800-900 ha land around Leeuwkop Correctional Services and this land will not be developed in the near future. Residential units will be developed as part of Summerset suburb to the east of the R55 as well as in the western part of Blue Hills close to Summerset. Mr Kobus Potgieter from the Landuse Department, is of the opinion that nothing will happen over the next 2 years. Development will resume at a very slow pace after that. M&T owns 60ha land to the west of Noordwyk on which they intend to build 2 000 medium to low type residential units. With the current economic climate as well as the oversupply of M&T residential units, this development might also take much longer to materialise. The only large scale residential developments that will take place in the near future are the ±6 200 residential units planned for the Waterfall Park area. Services According to Mr Danie Potgieter, city engineer, the sewerage system is not adequate to allow any new developments in that area. There are also no plans to upgrade the system in the near future. The same applies to electricity which is partly provided by Eskom and Joburg City Power.




88

Retail Development The following retail developments are in early planning stages:

Retail Africa is busy investigating the feasibility of a new shopping centre on the corner of R55 and Main Road in Kyalami AH. The size of the centre is not fixed yet and will probably be between 35 000 and 40 000m².

There are talks about the development of a shopping centre in Blue Hills on the corner of Summit Road and the R55. No application has been received.

The owners of Waterfall Park are planning a regional shopping centre which could develop into a super regional centre in future. No application has been received.

Transport and related issues The impact of Gautrain on this whole development would be of secondary nature. It will increase the accessibility of the whole area. Many of the Waterfall Business Estate workers might use the train and link transport should be provided from the station to the workplace. Timeframe A township application has been received for the proposed land at Waterfall. This will take 8-12 months to be approved with another 6-8 months to be proclaimed. With retail applications, a number of other studies like traffic and environmental impact studies need to accompany the application.



89

13. SITE EVALUATION A site evaluation is normally conducted on two levels namely:

meso environment/the broader area and the micro location.

13.1 Meso environment/broader area The meso environment includes the area around the proposed development. The area as analysed above will include areas from Fourways, Rivonia, Sunninghill, Midrand and Centurion. According to the ratings of the meso environment, Waterfall Business Estate will compare favourably with Centrurion, Midrand, Fourways and Sunninghill and forms part of the top 10 meso areas for property development in the country. TABLE 13.1

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE MESO LOCATION

Variables Rating

Total Population 5

Number of Households 5

Residential Growth 8

Housing Density 7

LSM 7

Existing Retail 6

Total Workforce 5

Composition 7

Office floor area 7

Office vacancy 7

Strength of node 8

Growth Prospects 9

Level of Competition 7

Road Infrastructures 7

Attraction: Tourism 4

Industrial 7

Total % 66

All this clearly indicates a very positive meso environment.

13.2 Office site evaluation It is of utmost importance to understand the requirements for office development. Worldwide in most of the westernised cities, office developments take place in the direction of the more affluent suburbs. This is also the case in Johannesburg as well as in Pretoria, linking with the Midrand area. The rapid growth that has been experienced in Midrand to make this area the third largest office node in Johannesburg, clearly confirms the attractiveness of this area as an office address. The Waterfall Business Estate area will add high visibility, accessibility and close proximity to the Gautrain stations at Rand Central and Marlborough. The outstanding aspect with regards to offices in Waterfall Business Estate is the visibility from the highway. This office “infill” opportunity creates good interest and high development potential.



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TABLE 13.2

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR OFFICE LOCATION

Key Success Factors Rating

Micro location 8

Accessibility 7

Visibility 8

Residential area 7

Image 7

Boss theory 7

Workforce 7

Dependence on face to face

contact/Access to clients 6

Proximity to retail facilities 5

Attractive environment 7

Good security 6

Infrastructure 6

Proximity to a Gautrain Station 6

Part of an existing office node 7

Rentals/Price 7

TOTAL % 76.8

13.3 Retail site evaluation The rating of the Waterfall Town Centre area is high with a rating above 75 points in the highest category of retail location. The outstanding aspects are:

highway road access; high level of visibility; all the adjoining uses are complementary to retail development and high passing traffic.

The key aspect with regards to future retail development is the infill of new housing units to reach the threshold value for shopping centre development.



91

TABLE 13.3

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR RETAIL LOCATION

Micro Location Rating Rating

General accessibility

highway road access 9

arterial roads 8

local roads 6

travel barriers (10 good - no barrier) 4

availability of public transport 8

motor car ownership 8

Visibility

from which direction 9

from what distance 8

obstuction (10 good - no obstruction) 6

topography (10 good - no slopes) 6

Type of location

metropolitan suburban 8

Adjoining uses

complementary 8

competition (10 good - no competition) 6

changes over time (medium term) 8

site access 7

Parking

Importance 8

Passing traffic

traffic flows 8

character of traffic 7

daily flows 8

average speed 6

Total % Score 75



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13.4 Industrial site evaluation Portions of the valuable land are ideal for high tech industrial development, distribution and warehousing and large distribution centres. The visibility from this site is equal to that for offices and retail. The accessibility should be improved and good industrial address could be established similar to that of corporate park. TABLE 13.4

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR INDUSTRIAL LOCATION

Location Factors Rating

Proximity of market 7

Rental of buildings 7

Electricity/Energy 9

Transport costs of final product 7

Assessment of supporting services 8

Price of land 6

Proximity of intermediary products 8

Housing of employees 6

Water 7

Good road access 8

Access to freight airport 7

Backward linkages 8

Forward linkages 8

Existing infrastructure to support

manufacturing 6

Growth prospects 7

Micro location 7

Total % Score 73.5

This whole infill area offers great opportunity for further property development. The area is already surrounded by very good growth areas, good address and very successful developments.



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13.5 Waterfall Business Estate Master Locality Plan Table 13.5 gives an indication of all the proposed developments for the Waterfall Business Estate precinct. The market potential for each of the different land use categories will be indicated below. The timing of the whole project would be of critical importance. This will be determined by a very good location as well as macro economic conditions. TABLE 13.5

PROPOSED WATERFALL PRECINCT DEVELOPMENT

Map Reference Urban Design Comment

5 Waterfall Equestrian Estate 120 stands -- 116 sold. Stand prices R6.4m. Built 34, under construction 67. Prices R20m to R60m

13 Waterfall Hills (Mature Lifestyle Estate)

197 Freehold Homes -- 135 Sold. Prices R1.7m to R3.5m. Size 122m² to 320m²

55 Apartments -- 25 Sold. Prices R1m to R1.7m. Size 74m² to 129m²

30 Bed Frail Care by 24/7-Care SA

17 Stone Field (Polo Fields) Existing

15 Waterfall Retail Sections Atterbury – Zoning approved 2 Gyms, Virgin Active and private gym at clubhouse. Both standard Virgin Active Gym sizes. 15

11 Waterfall Country Lifestyle Estate 1200 Stands. Sizes 1100m² to 1200m²

F1 480 Stands -- 456 Sold (95%). Prices R1.4m to R2.2m

Proclamation End Nov 2009

Registration Mid Jan 2010

Building period 4 years from registration

F2

60 Stands -- Price increase by 10% on phase 1 prices (R1.54m to R2.42m)

Proclamation end March 2010

Registration mid May 2010

Building period 4years from registration

F3

350 Stands -- Price increase by 10% on phase 2 prices (R1.695 to R2.662)

Proclamation end Aug 2010

Registration mid Oct 2010


F4

310 Stands - Price increase by 10% on phase 3 prices

(R1.865 to R2.928)

Proclamation End Nov 2010

Registration Mid Jan 2011

Building period 4years from registration

14 Waterfall Country Lifestyle Village 1200 Stands. Sizes 600m² to 650m²

F1 420 Stands - 407 Sold (97%). Prices R720000 to R970000

Proclamation end Feb 2010

Registration mid April 2010


F2

418 Stands -- Price increase by 10% on phase 1 prices (R792000m to R1.067m)

Proclamation end July 2010

Registration mid Sept 2010


F3

250 Stands -- Price increase by 10% on phase 2 prices (R871 200 to R1.174m)



94

Proclamation end Sept 2010

Registration mid Nov 2010


F4

112 Stands -- Price increase by 10% on phase 3 prices (R958 320 to R1.291m)

Proclamation April 2011

Registration Mid June 2011


F2A 418 Stands open to the public

Proclamation End May 2010

Registration Mid July 2010


F2B 350 Stands

Proclamation end Aug 2010

Registration mid Oct 2010


8 Offices & Showrooms Atterbury. 3 years from now to be completed (2012/2013 )

9 International Hotel Negotiating with Sun International Hotel Group. 5 Star grading. 260 Bedrooms

10 Private Schools To host 1200 pupils from the Estate. Redan International College, part of Crawford College

12 Offices & Showrooms Atterbury

10 Waterfall CBD Atterbury 380000m². Regional shopping centre like Melrose Arch. All under one roof

25 Private Hospital 600 Beds, by Netcare. To be bigger than the Sunninghill Clinic. Started with ground works

18 Waterfall Islamic Institute In use. Rumours about extensions with a possibility of a mosque

19 World of Golf Existing golf course

20 Woodmead North Office Park Occupied. No signs of building activities. Settled.

17 Petrol Stations Belonging to the Mias Family. Probably only being developed in the next 2 to 3 years

21 Woodmead View Office Park Rights being approved. Land still open, not started yet.

23 Woodmead Retail Park Occupied. No signs of building activities. Settled.

22 Woodmead East Office Park. Rights being approved. Land still open, not started yet.

16 Waterfall Fields Lifestyle Estate Originally planned for retirement village. Other options being discussed. No plans handed in yet.

27 Existing Clients M & J Brick tiles, Sanj Medical Distributors. Top Rock Granite & Marble.

9 Allandale Commercial Park Some rights approved - Commercial, Light Industrial. Not yet proclaimed

26 Cosmos Building Supplies Some rights approved - Commercial, Light Industrial. Not yet proclaimed

8 Allandale Light Industrial Park

Some rights approved - Commercial, Light Industrial. Not

yet proclaimed

6 Quarry In operation

7 Quarry Commercial Some rights approved - Commercial, Light Industrial. Not yet proclaimed

11 Gautrain & Maintenance Yard In Operation

24 Warehouse & Distribution Status unknown. No activity.

3 Waterfall Wedge Housing Housing projects, high density, light commercial. Applications submitted, not yet approved

2 Waterfall Cemetery Rights approved. Already in use and being expanded

1 Jukskei View Housing Ext 21 to Ext 27 & Ext 59 to Ext 62 and Jukskei Heights Ext 1: Township applications submitted, not yet approved.

Roads, Street lights in for a while. Highly neglected.

33 Waterfall Commercial & Distribution Status unknown.



95

Photo 13.1: Waterfall Business Estate Location Plan

14. MARKET POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS LAND USE CATEGORIES The above mentioned information will be used to guide future developments as far as the whole Waterfall Business Estate precinct is concerned. This must be regarded as a very large mixed use approach with a time frame of between 10-15 years. This long development period will have to make provision for different economic cycles that will have an impact on property development. The size and the micro location of specific portions of land will guide the broader layout of the Waterfall Business Estate precinct. Visibility from the highway was taken into consideration in this precinct plan.

Very large volumes of traffic through the area; the close proximity of the Gautrain Station and a very good infill opportunity.



96

14.1 Residential development

Local housing market

More than 10 000 single housing units were sold between 2001 and 2009;

The number of sales peaked during 2007 when almost 1 700 units were sold;

Average house prices range between R700 000 and R2.5 million;

45% of the sales were between R1 million and R2 million and

A further 16% above R2 million;

The multiple unit market were even more active with 17 000 sales;

The average price ranged between R540 000 and R1.4 million;

During 2005 - 2007, 3 000 multiple units were sold per annum;

The most popular price range is between R500 000 and R800 000;

14% of the units were sold for above R1 million.

All this indicates one of the most active residential markets in the whole of South Africa.

Local markets Apart from the 27 000 units sold since 2000, another 11 000 units are in various stages of completion, construction or delayed construction; An additional 3 000 units were announced recently;

This is definitely the most active residential market forming part of the more affluent households found anywhere in South Africa.

Local Market Conditions The broader market consists of a very strong mixed use orientation with major work opportunities created by office firms, shopping centres, industrial developments, hotels and other community related facilities. This type of development will become more popular in future and will increase the demand for housing.



97

Affordability level Table 14.1 indicates the following:

A clear distinction in terms of housing facilities between Waterfall Business Estate East and Waterfall Business Estate West;

The difference will also determine the type and quality of housing facilities; The market potential on the western side is as follows:

o 80% of all the units should be in the price range above R800 000, this could go up to R2.5 million depending on the type of development;

o 20% of all housing units should fall in the price range R400 000 to R800 000; On the eastern side the emphasis moves to the majority of houses in the price range

R300 000 to R500 000; During the peak period of 2004 – 2007, approximately 5 000 housing units were

taken up;

The market potential for the Waterfall Business Estate development could be in the vicinity of between 800 – 1200 units per annum, depending on the prevailing economic conditions.

o The type of development will also determine the tempo of construction. TABLE 14.1

BROAD INDICATION OF LSM CATEGORIES, AFFORDABILITY LEVELS AND MONTHLY BOND REPAYMENTS

LSM

Classifi-cation

Average

Monthly Income

Afford-

ability Level ( R)

Approximate

Home Loan

Whole of

Midrand LSM

Waterfall

Business Estate West

Waterfall

Business Estate East

1-4 - - 54%

0%

2-3 - - 30%

4 <R 3 000 1 000 R 100 000-

5 R5 000 1 650 R 150 000 19%

0%

40%

6 R 8 000 2 650 R 250 000

7 R 12 500 4 125 R 400 000 8%

20%

8 R 15 000 5 000 R 500 000 20%

9 R20 000 6 600 R 650 000

10 R24 000 8 000 R 800 000

18% 80%

10+ R 40 000 13 200 R1 300 000

R60 000 18 000 R1.8 million 10%

R80 000 24 000 R2.4 million

R 100 000 33 000 R 3.3 million

The residential market could develop over a 10 – 12 year period to complete 80% of the construction.



98

DIAGRAM 14.1

RECOMMENDED ALLOCATION OF HOUSING UNITS PER LSM CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT AFFORDABILITY LEVELS AND FUTURE UPFILTERING

Upper LSM 10

80%/10%

18% LSM 10

Lower LSM 10

8% LSM 7-9

19% 20%/20% LSM 5-6

54% LSM 1-4 25%/70%

Waterfall Business Estate West Waterfall Business Estate East

>R1.2m

>R800k-R1m

>R400k-R650k

>R400k-R650k

>R150k-R250k

>R0-R100k

TOTAL MIDRAND

MARKET

RECOMMENDED FOCUS FOR

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT:

WATERFALL BUSINESS ESTATE WEST/EAST

UPFILTERING



99

14.2 Retail development Retail development as part of Waterfall Business Estate will be determined by the following:

The existing number of households around the site including Sunninghill, Fourways and Midrand;

A total of 28 000 housing units already exist in the broader Midrand/Sunninghill area. Future growth in the area will further stimulate the demand for retail; An expected 10 000-15 000 housing units will be constructed over a 8-12 year

period; Retail development potential will further be determined by existing poor and

mediocre facilities especially in the Halfway House area, the outflow to areas like Sandton, Fourways and Woodmead.

The proposed retail developments like Forest Hill, Kyalami Equestrian Mall and the

possible continuation of Zonkizizwe should be closely monitored. The role and function of all new retail facilities should be carefully planned to indicate

a regional or a small regional role. The time frame for any large retail facility should adhere to the threshold values required for a specific type and size of facility. See Table 14.2.

TABLE 14.2 GENERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR RETAIL FACILITIES

Type of Centre GLA (m²) No. of

Stores No. of Housing Units Average

Radius

Local convenience centre

1 000 – 5 000m

5 - 25 700 – 3 600 1.5 km

Neighbourhood centre

5 000 – 12 000

25 – 50 Group of suburbs 2000 - 6000

2.5 km

Community centre

12 000 – 25 000

50-100 Group of suburbs, depending on total area 8 000 – 12 000

3.5 km

Small regional

centre

25 000 –

50 000

75-150 17 000 -35 000 5 km

Regional Centre 50 000-100 000

150-250 30-60 000 8km

The following retail facilities should be provided

two or three neighbourhood centres; 1 community centre and one large regional centre over time.

The total market potential for the Waterfall Business Estate precinct by 2010 and 2015 is indicated below:



100

TABLE 14.3 MARKET POTENTIAL FOR 2010 AND 2015

2010 2015 Product

Categories Warranted Space % of Total Warranted Space

% of Total

(GLA) Floor Area (GLA) Floor Area

Groceries 6 466 20 9 437 21 Clothing and shoes 8 182 26 12 000 26 Furniture and appliances 2 250 7 32 04 7 Household goods 3 960 12 5 730 13 Restaurants and take-aways 1 512 5 2 208 5 Entertainment 0 0 0 0 Other 7 942 25 11 651 25 Banks/Services 1 500 5 1 500 3

Total area warranted 31 811 100 45 730 100

Expected turnover p.a. in Rand

R703 million R1 billion

TABLE 14.4

TOTAL MARKET SIZE AND SHARE CAPTURED BY PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

Expected turnover Total Market Size Market Share of proposed centre

R703 million R3.2 billion 22%

This will increase to 33% because of densification and further residential growth. The node will also have to establish itself to warrant additional retail space.

14.3 Industrial development The take up rate for industrial space completed in Midrand during the last 9 years equals ±10 000 – 15 000m² per annum. It is expected that with economic growth and the availability of very good visible industrial space this could increase to between 20 000m² and 30 000m² per annum. The expected take up rate for industrial space in the Waterfall Business Estate area could be between 50%-60% of the total industrial space available per annum. The availability of sufficient power at the Waterfall Business Estate compared to the lack of power to the rest of Midrand will accelerate industrial growth. An expected take up rate of 15 000m² - 20 000m² of industrial space, could be realised per annum. This is higher than the current industrial space completed in Midrand, indicating a very good location as well as availability of power. The potential for large distribution and warehousing will depend on the size of individual tenants.



101

14.4 Office development Based on various sources the demand and the actual take-up rate for office space in Midrand fluctuates between 25 000m² and 41 000m² per annum. The good quality and visible office locations along the highway could increase the take up rate to at least 50 000m² per annum. The Waterfall Business Estate with its exposure to the highway can attract between 40%-50% of the total new developments. This represents an annual take up rate of between 16 000m² and 20 000m².

14.5 Other activities as part of a New Town development Based on the location and the mixed use development proposed for the whole Waterfall Business Estate precinct, the following should also be considered:

4 star hotel with 90 -120 beds; Medical facilities; Private hospital of 250 beds; Private school facilities from grade 0-12; Total of 1 200 learners.

It is also important that the proposed town square development cater mainly for the local households within 5-8 km. The rest of the residential facilities would be located closer to regional and super regional centres.



102

TABLE 14.5

MARKET POTENTIAL SUMMARY

Land use Market Potential

Residential units Between 800 - 1 200 units per annum

80% LSM 10

20% LSM 7-9

House prices R800 000 – R2.5 million

Multiple units R600 000 – R800 000

Retail Required no of households must be reached before retail start

Good growth of up to 20 000 houses are expected



Market share of proposed centre = 22%

Can increase to 33%

Be aware of all existing and new retail facilities

Industrial Potential take up 15 000 – 20 000m²

Could increase to 20 000 – 30 000m² per annum

Potential for proposed site is positive because of excellent location

Office Excellent office address

Current take up rate 40 000m² – 50 000m²

Waterfall Business Estate could capture 16 000 – 20 000m² during good

economic times

Other 4 star hotel with 90 - 120 beds;

Medical facilities;

Private hospital of 250 beds;

Private school facilities from grade 0 - 12;

School size – total of 1 200 learners.



103

15. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS In spite of a negative market during 2008 and 2009, the Midrand area has shown

continued growth. It is expected that with the acceleration in GDP growth, the Midrand area will recover as one of the most important growth nodes in South Africa.

The proposed Waterfall Business Estate project should be seen as a 10-15 year

project. Especially the retail component must be completed only once the required number of housing facilities is available. In this case a “follow the roofs strategy” should be followed.

The rest of the development forms part of an „infill strategy‟ which can be

developed immediately. The focus will be to utilize very good visibility along the highway and to create awareness for property development.

The economic time lag will however have a delayed effect of 2-3 years on property

development; It is of utmost importance that this document should be updated every year to

track the changes in the Midrand area as far as existing and new developments are concerned.

The Waterfall precinct offers a unique opportunity in South Africa and will become

one of the main new nodes in South Africa in future.

The availability of sufficient electricity supply for the whole development is one of the most important strengths associated with the development;

The value drivers of this project should be to highlight the unique location with a prestige address and a „green building approach‟ to offer state of the art properties to the market.

Photograph 15.1 gives an indication of the spatial development of Midrand over the next 10 years.


104


PHOTO 15.1 : SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF MIDRAND – 2010-2020

Growth in Township

Frankenwald

Greenstone

Kyalami Mall

Centurion Mall

Irene Mall

Samrand

Strengthen

commercial

node

Expansion of

township areas

Residential

Projected

growth

Commercial growth

Proposed

Retail

Impact

Residential

Eco Park Regional

Waterfall

City



105


Appendix A Tenants – Most important shopping centres in Midrand area

Waterfall Centre

BP Garage The Body Shop (massage parlour) Hair Salon Sexplicit Adult Chinese Take-away Vacant Taj Mahal Pizza Perfect Barber Shop Laundry Mochachos Nino's S. Bank ATM Sandwich (Deli) Surebank Loans

Midrand City

S. Bank Shoprite Pep Stores Fin Services

San Ridge

WW food Jewellery Shop Indian Cuisine KFC S. Bank Royal Trends Bathroom Bizarre Remax Bidvest Bank Tile Centre Clicks Altech Autopage Medical Centre Flight Centre Vacant Ocean Basket Ink for less Liquor City Primi Postnet Picture Shop Newscafe Nino's Sungless Boutique Roman's Musica Laundery PNP Family Teren Co Vet Deli Vacant Interior Optometrist Computer Corporation Carpets Shop Nedbank ATM DVD Nedbank Roneld's Restaurant Tizco Café Hair Salon Fabulous Party Shop

Nail & Body




106

The Boulders

Best Electric American Swiss Totalsports Sure Travel Master Birklands Computers Galaxy & Co Truworths Telkom Sound & Vision NWJ UZZI Transman Ackermans Soni's Jewellers Aggi's flower shop Vodashop Awol Sterns Anat Falafel American Express BATA Cosmetic Marketing Farmhouse Fare Capitec Bank Beaver Canoe Dentist Fontana Roastery FNB Bondi Blu Hair Debonairs Pizza Nedbank ATM Daniel J Nails KFC Rennies DFX MGC King Pie Standard Bank Dino Bigioni Reproductive Choices Lenz Bottle Store Bed & Couch Edgars Specsavers Nandos Dicks Paint Exact Spectacular Vision Pantsula bites shop Diamond Furnishers Fashion World Optometrist Something Fishy Geen & Richards Foschini AI Internet Café Steers Lubners Identity Beautiful Photo Mania Wimpy Sheet Street Jet Cell C Clicks M Gordon Footwear John Craig Flight Centre CAN Verve

Legit Glomail Discom Reliable Music Warehouse

Markham Jetline E. Com Game Tobacco Zone Mikka Sport Levingers PnP ABSA ATM Milady's Midrand Computerise Engravers Musica MTN

Mr Price Midrand Electrical Skipper Bar Ogilvy's Conference Centre

NWJ Midrand Tailoring Spitz Protass Security Saks Classics Midway Locksmith Studio 88 SA Post Office Sales house MSC College Shoe City

Carlswold

Wimpy Cappacino's Super Spar Dischem DVD Tops Fab & Funky Flight Centre Gunami Studio Coca Brazil Laundry Yale Security Sorbet Nail & Pharmacy Torga Placecol Beauty At Home Cell C FNB Bank No Name S. Bank ATM Nedbank Bank Galito's Chicken Debra Lee Boutique Sheet Street St Elmo's Pizza Mugg & Bean Vacant Dros Hair Salon Feminise Mr Price Florist Mr Price Home Jimmy's Killer Prawn



107

Noodwyk Centre

Building Material DIY Depot Building Postal Pharmacy Surgery Liquor Store Spar

Crowthorne Centre

Zenex Post Office Spar Hair Salon Spur Hardware Video Town S. Bank Atm Medical Centre FNB ATM Pharmacy Pam Golding Flight Centre M&A Top Carpets Country Cupboard Gift Dry Clean Raj Indian Cuisine WW Food Riders & Sallery Liquor SA Equestrian Foundation Office Space on 2nd floor Fitness Studio Paint your own pottery

Midway Mews

Mica Photo Shop Top floor many vacant Aida Mimmos FNB ATM House of Spices Pnp Family Fish Aways Auto Page Vacant Indian Cuisine Nandos Steers Matrix Warehouse Debonairs Chinese Take aways Blockbusters Health 7 Fitness Hair Studio Florist Liquor Music Outlet C NA Clicks Midway Fashion Engen Garage & Wash



108

Vorna Valley

Super Spar Nedbank ATM Pleasuredome Dig. Photo Vacant Hair London Pie Beauty Video Vacant Black Steers Halaal Butchery Postpoint Dry Cleaners Pizza Perfect Spice Centre Eastern Cuisine Hardware S. Bank ATM Tops Liquor Gifts & Cards Vacant Estate Agent Vacant Vacant Chemist Medical Centre

Nagiah's Mall

Romans Pizza Nagiah's Butchery Car Wash Thai Restaurant Hair Salon Open Fruit & Veg Market (small) Surgery 8 Vacant (2nd level)


109


Appendix B

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MIDRAND AREA: IN VARIOUS DEVELOPMENT STAGES

Node Suburb Name of Dev Sect.title/Cluster No. of Units in Complex Price Min

Price Max

Stage of development/ Comments

Midrand Blue Hills La Fayette Cluster 9 1550000 1700000 Stand sold. Building stopped

Midrand Carlswald Summerset Ext 18 Break Free Estate Cluster 99 900000 2000000 Still building, almost completed

Midrand Carlswald Summerset Ext 15 Carlswald Meadows Cluster 151 804000 1650000 Completed

Midrand Sagewood Ext 13 Terrace View Sectional Title 102 464900 690000 Completed

Midrand Allandale Gallager Mews Cluster 120 0 0 Awaiting rezoning

Midrand Sagewood Ext 2 Sagewood Manor Cluster 290 689900 929900 Building stopped at about slab height

Midrand Kyalami Ext 10 Kyalami Poplar Lane Cluster 112 626000 750000 No sign of any activity

Midrand Kyalami Ext 10 Kyalami Poplar Lane Sectional Title 100 No sign of any activity

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 81 Hill of Good Hope Cluster 143 1306000 2100000 Still building, almost completed

Midrand Grand Central Ext 3 Boardwalk Crescent Sectional Title 159 365000 575000 Completed

Midrand Grand Central Ext 13 Villa D' Algeria Sectional Title 171 590000 690000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 71 Carlswald Crest Sectional Title 86 595000 825000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 25 Carlswald Presidents Units Sectional Title 28 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 25 Carlswald Décor Centre Sectional Title 7 Completed

Midrand Summerset Ext 20 Montecello Estate Cluster 68 995000 2500000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Protea Estate Sectional Title 219 330000 595000 Not started yet

Midrand Eran Gardens Protea Estate Sectional Title 551 0 0 Not started yet

Midrand Vorna Valley Mont Sorano Cluster 15 1095000 1200000 Building stopped at about slab height

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 13 Bonne Vie Cluster 110 989000 1550000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 111 9 th on Lever Sectional Title 208 480000 600000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 81 Monte Close Cluster 43 834000 1030000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Laura's Place Sectional Title 50 514000 614000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Laura's Place Sectional Title 38 625000 795000 Completed

Midrand Midridge Ext 12 Sanridge Village Sectional Title 325 500000 860000 Completed

Midrand Country View Country View Gardens Sectional Title 28 785000 1038000 Completed Only 7 sold so far

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 72 Golden Rose Gardens Cluster 39 940000 1500000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 102 Constantia Estate Cluster 0 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Hills Ext 10 Kyalami Boulevard Cluster 198 698000 1095000 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Hills Ext 8 Royal Kyalami Country Estate Cluster 44 1500000 3000000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 92 Sumatra Sectional Title 90 1385000 1500000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Murati Place Sectional Title 44 540000 790000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Murati Place Sectional Title 44 560000 820000 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Ext 13 Kyalami Ridge Cluster 107 1200000 1900000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 1 Midlands View Sectional Title 70 495000 655000 Nothing done so far. No activity

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 2 Midlands View Sectional Title 64 Nothing done so far. No activity




110

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 3 Midlands View Sectional Title 57 Nothing done so far. No activity

Midrand Barbeque Downs Ext 29 Sunninghill River Club Cluster 170 295000 550000 Only some roads in. No activity

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 58 Midview Village Cluster 37 1100000 1300000 Complete

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 73 Protea Mews Cluster 60 695000 895000 Complete

Midrand President Park Ext 2 Sageview Lifestyle Estate Cluster 0 Project sold. Not started with any activity

Midrand Barbeque Downs Ext 38 Matekula Cluster 54 1500000 2000000 Completed

Midrand Barbeque Downs St Aiden Sectional Title 0 No sign of even boards. Can't find it

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 71. San Baranto Cluster 47 950000 1400000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 71. San Baranto Cluster 27 950000 1400000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 65 Carlswald Manor Sectional Title 81 615000 779000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 69 Midhill Cluster 52 855000 1100000 Completed

Midrand Sagewood Ext 10 Crescent Wood Cluster 201 769900 7999000 Building very slowly, activity low

Midrand Noordwyk Petite Provence Sectional Title 0 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk Mahogany 0 Project discarded in early stages

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 72 Simonsig Cluster 20 469000 615000 Completed



Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 127 Palm Gardens Sectional Title 93 460000 680000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Fountain View Sectional Title 224 385000 660000 Completed

Midrand Sagewood Ext 12. Crescendo Glades Sectional Title 115 349900 700000 Project stopped sometime last year. Some blocks already roofed

Midrand Sagewood Ext 12. Crescendo Glades Sectional Title 172 369900 719900 Project stopped sometime last year. Some blocks already roofed

Midrand Sagewood Ext 12. Crescendo Glades Sectional Title 2163 Project stopped sometime last year. Some blocks already roofed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 92 Hilltop Lofts Sectional Title 184 440000 795000 Completed

Midrand Vorna Valley Vorna Village Sectional Title 148 399000 520000 Completed

Midrand Vorna Valley Ext 52 Elton Close Cluster 25 1250000 1400000 Completed

Midrand Sagewood Ext 10 Vega View Cluster 18 1320000 1650000 In Crescent Wood .Not started building yet

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 103 Villeroy Court Sectional Title 136 339000 680000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 38. Cottenwood Sectional Title 85 318000 528000 Completed



Midrand Vorna Valley Ext 75 Hillton Heights Sectional Title 55 495000 505000 Completed

Midrand Barbeque Downs Jubi Manor Cluster 0 Not started, problems with ground not yet solved

Midrand Kyalami Gardens Ext 12 Kyalami Glen Estate Cluster 0 In progress. Building activity on the move

Midrand Kyalami Gardens Ext 14 Kyalami Glen Estate Cluster 50 1460000 1530000 In progress. Building activity on the move









111

Midrand Vorna Valley Casabella Sectional Title 60 450000 550000 Completed

Midrand Vorna Valley Bel Aire Estate Sectional Title 300 490000 650000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 87. St George Sectional Title 72 370000 900000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 87. St George Sectional Title 60 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 87. St George Sectional Title 173 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Ext 15 Lindor Manor Cluster 41 1000000 1600000 Had problems with electricity, Project going ahead

Midrand Willaway Ext 2 & 10 Park Twenty Four Cluster 24 2900000 6000000 In progress. Building activity on the move

Midrand Willaway Ext 7 Kyalami Downs Cluster 21 2700000 3300000 Completed

Midrand Willaway Ext 9 Nonyani Lodge Cluster 21 1900000 2600000 Completed

Midrand Carlswald Summerset Ext 12 & 17 Tallyns Ranch Cluster 80 1350000 2000000 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Ext 5 Villa Velvithia Sectional Title 22 545000 645000 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Hills Ext 14 Aloe Vale Cluster 55 1300000 2400000 Still selling stands

Midrand Barbeque Downs Ext 14 Annabella Sectional Title 79 900000 1250000 Completed

Midrand Barbeque Downs Ext 42 Mont Rose Cluster 51 680000 1250000 Selling and building still in progress

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 57. Grande Mirande Sectional Title 26 590000 850000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 57. Grande Mirande Sectional Title 30 Project stopped.

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 60 Carlswald Glades Sectional Title 62 497000 740000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 61 Carlswald Glen Sectional Title 65 820000 940000 Project still in progress

Midrand Blue Hills Ext 21. Summit View Cluster 121 790000 1700000 Close to complete

Midrand Blue Hills Ext 21. Summit View Cluster 78 850000 1850000 Close to complete

Midrand Blue Hills Blue Hills Cluster 112 335000 520000 Very slow progress, busy with roads

Midrand Vorna Valley Keagan Manor Sectional Title 24 657000 960000 Project shelved due to different reasons

Midrand Noordwyk Ext 6 Westbrooke Estate Cluster 165 930000 1100000 Completed

Midrand Kyalami Sandlewood Cluster 8 1500000 1700000 5 units occupied. Rest still open stands

Midrand Sagewood Ext 14 Willow Crescent Sectional Title 384 316000 727000 Completed

Midrand Noordwyk The Finches Sectional Title 0 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 32 Colin Brooke Sectional Title 90 485000 585000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 1 Chestnut Glen Cluster 46 1500000 1700000 Still waiting power supply, going ahead. Chris (011)805 0702

Midrand Willaway Ext 11 & 13. Kyalami Terrace Cluster 150 1400000 1900000 Busy with services

Midrand Willaway Ext 11 & 13. Kyalami Terrace Cluster 40 Busy with services

Midrand Carlswald Summerset Ext 6 Carlswald Lofts Sectional Title 108 614000 745000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 131 & 132 Weavers Nest Sectional Title 56 525000 835000 Completed

Midrand Halfway Gardens Ext 77 Midrand Gardens Sectional Title 64 585000 625000 Completed

Midrand Eran Gardens Ext 94 Eran Court Sectional Title 216 360000 460000 Completed

Source: urban Studies field survey, 2009



112

Appendix C

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SUNNINGHILL AREA

Suburb Name of Dev Address (Street) Legal Property description Sect.title/Cluster

No. of Units in Complex Price Min

Price Max Ave Price

Beverley Stone River on William Nichol Rd Beverley Cluster 143 440000 670000 500000

Waterfall

Paulshof Ext 54 Paulshof Residential Village

Wroxham Rd Paulshof Ext 54 Paulshof Ext 54 Sectional Title 34 490000 535000 510000

Completed

Sunninghill Riverside Manor Retirement Village Leeukop Rd Sunninghill

Portion 1 of Erf 1037 Paulshof Ext 79 Cluster 54 1328000 1740000 1400000

Completed

Sunninghill Riverside Manor Retirement Village Leeukop Rd Sunninghill

Portion 1 of Erf 1037 Paulshof Ext 79 Sectional Title 40 640000 1025000 810000

Completed

Sunninghill Ext 84 Lemontree Lane

Tana Rd Sunninghill Ext 84 Sunninghill Ext 84 Cluster 9 1475000 2000000 1700000

Completed

Paulshof Bogoria Wroxham Rd Paulshof Plot 133 Paulshof Sectional Title 108 536000 857000 697000 Completed

Paulshof Lavenderlane Mitchell Str Paulshof Plot 129 Paulshof Sectional Title 202 399000 799000 459000 Completed

Sunninghill The Kanyin Leeukop Rd Sunninghill Sectional Title 84 859000 1059900 959900 Phase 1

Sunninghill The Kanyin Leeukop Rd Sunninghill Sectional Title 96 629900 1109900 869900

Phase 2


Phase 3


Phase 4


Phase 5


Phase 6

Paulshof Matika Capricorn Av Paulshof Paulshof Sectional Title 168 459000 979000 719000

Completed

Paulshof St Paul Wroxham Rd Paulshof Paulshof Sectional Title 137 450000 1100000 775000

Completed

Sunninghill Gardens Kearnsney

Nanyuki Rd Sunninghill Gardens Sunninghill Gardens Sectional Title 61 700000 1500000 1000000

Completed

Sunninghill Gardens Kenswick

Nanyuki Rd Sunninghill Gardens Sunninghill Gardens Sectional Title 74 600000 1100000 850000

Completed

Sunninghill Earlington Lingrette Rd Sunninghill Sunninghill Sectional Title 46 900000 1500000 1200000


113


Appendix D Type of industries located in adjacent industrial areas

Linbro Industrial Park

Grace haven Industries Soviet To let stand

Provicom electronics Bearco Peurgeot

Promotion Clothing Hot slots To let stand Suzuki Digital SCB

November Jentec Trade link Altech Coprocs Southern trails

Introstat Sally Williams Intacem

Imagination Euro steel Novart systems Acdocosa Steel bank Hair health and beauty

Vacant stand BTA Johnson D Fubu Stefana Clothing Paarlweb IMS electronics

Getore KNR Slow Jo Embroideries Alfa gomma Inganingo

Subaru Alfa international GPT

UTM pharma British International removals Paarl media Safilo group Northstar Kyocera

General Mills Trufix Nestle SPW African eagle fleet management Helerman Titan

TMC group Microsep Solman

Canon Aristocrat Lacongcor bakery Electrocom Comtec GC Africa

LIS auto service Transfig To let stand Single destination engineering Fital trade Grinrod Logistics

Delta composites Shipcens Gautrian Gemalta Seaworld Lint

Verimart trading Bidvest Eurolux

Zest Caterplus Part serve BMW Gamma group holdings Plascon trade centre

KMQ Body glove ABI UPS direct To let stand Bread Basket

Fedglass To let stand

Longmeadow

P n P distribution centre Taxi Trucks Pro-bike

Bidvest Stadler Nestle Bid prods Busq Livera

Bid food Rolick ABB Crown national World net express Detnet

Chickens Sabela freight logistics AEL Baron Clothing MMD mineral To let stand

Gin rod High tech machine tools Clicks

Paul Finger ACDC dynamics Atlas Kuhn and Nagel Henderson Waltons

Crown relocations Cross pharm Russell Campbell Racing World net logistics Wheel centre Sporting cars

GND international Two best one




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Grand Central Area

BMW repair centre Air Rescue Africa Solby's

Corner stone security TWM SA Multi Spray Solutions

To let stand Eskom aviation To let stand

To let stand Alpine Lisle research factory shop

International SOS DST aluminium To let stand

Randjiespark

ATE Comtek Specfarm CoJ Health department MTN Merial

Sony Real Tele Marketing Panel beaters

Toshiba Bosch training centre Comtek Aurcor DB Shenker Teljoy

L' L‟Oreal Retrom Ltd Biotek Chubb Adcock Ingram Norbrook

Basf Clinical micro Macma

Inala house Honda Logistics warehouse Arivia.com Osram (electrics) Jacklin

Crest Chemicals Numatic


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