prepared by the north dakota state data center february 2005 1 north dakota statewide housing needs...

Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005

1

North Dakota StatewideHousing Needs Assessment

Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director

North Dakota State Data Center

Review of Findings and Data Products

2005 Statewide Housing Conference

Bismarck, North Dakota

February 23, 2005


2

Presentation Objectives:

2. Review of main findings

3. Preview data products produced by the needs assessment project

1. Provide an overview of the 2005 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment


3

Purpose of the Housing Assessment:

1. Provide an overview of current housing trends

2. Show population dynamics and corresponding shifts in housing

3. Provide objective assessment of future housing needs


4

Key Components of the needs assessment

Detailed Data Regarding:• Demographic/economic trends• Housing stock• Affordable housing• Housing conditions• Special populations• Housing supply• Housing demand• Land use issue


5

Key Components of the needs assessment

Survey of key leaders • Represent all levels of geography• Represent major stakeholders in housing• Key themes

• Housing supply/demand issues• Housing quality and affordability• Barriers to development• Special needs populations• Concerns regarding housing policy/programs


6

Products

1. Final report• Printed document serves as summary• Contains 12 tables profiling housing needs• Includes key leaders survey results

2. Detailed tables• Series of nearly 100 tables expanding detail of report• Each table includes all geography

3. Website -- (SHARP) statewide housing assessment resource project

• User select geography and tables• Links to all products


7

Overview of Key Findings

1.Review Population Changes

2.Explore Historical Housing Patterns

3.Examine Housing Demand

4.Look at Key Leaders Survey

5.Finish with Recommendations


8

Population Changes

1. Population consolidation

2. Shifting age distribution

3. Changing household composition


9

Population Changes

1. Population consolidation


10

N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,1900-2000

92.789 86.4 83.4

79.473.4

64.8

55.751.2

46.7 44.1

7.311 13.6 16.6

20.626.6

35.2

44.3

53.3 55.9

48.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Per

cent

RuralUrban

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.


11

North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 and 2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

urban

rural

Population Number Percent Number Percent

25,000+ 4 1.1 4 1.1

10,000-24,999 3 0.9 5 1.3

5,000-9,999 5 1.4 3 0.8

2,500-4,999 3 0.9 3 0.8

2,000-2,499 7 2.0 6 1.6

1,500-1,999 15 4.3 10 2.7

1,000-1,499 26 7.4 22 5.9

500-999 45 12.9 50 13.5

200-499 114 32.7 76 20.5

Less than 200 127 36.4 192 51.8

Total 349 100.0 371 100.0

20001960

15 15

2000 data include 10 Census Designated Places (CDPs).


12

North Dakota Cass County

McIntosh County


13

Population Density

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenry

Sioux

Mountrail

Divide

Burleigh

Benson

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

Traill

Mercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley

Persons Per Square MileLess than 66 to 1617 to 4546 or more

Population Density in North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.


14

Population Changes

2. Shifting age distribution


15

Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in the United States by County: 1990 to 1999


16

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's

Figure 2. Age-Specific Net Migration: Farm


17

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's

Figure 4. Age-Specific Net Migration: Metro


18

1980 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota


19



20



21

2005 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota


22



23



24

18901900

19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

2002

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000

Age 0 to 9 Age 65 and Older

Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and OlderNorth Dakota: 1890 to 2002


25

Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

Traill

Mercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh

GoldenValley

Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more


26

Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2020Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002

Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

Traill

Mercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh


27

1.8% - 8.62%8.63% - 12.78%12.79% - 16.2%16.3% - 20.68%20.69% - 34.72%

The Elderly – 65 plusSource: U.S. Census Bureau.

Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000


28

The Elderly – 85 plus

0 %- 1.14%1.15% - 1.81%1.82% - 2.52%2.53% - 3.52%3.53% - 6.64%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000


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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS , NORTH DAKOTA:2000 to 2010 & 2000 to 2020(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

-1.41

-6.10

22.14

11.94

-1.18-4.22

13.23

47.53

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

YOUTH (Ages 0-24 ) WORKFORCE (Ages25-44)

PRE-RETIREES (Ages 45-64)

ELDERLY (Ages 65+)

Persons

Percent Change

2000 to2010

2000 to2020


30

Population Changes

3. Changing household composition


31

Household Composition – North Dakota1980 2000 % Change

All Households 227,664 257,152 13.0

Family Households 166,702 166,150 -0.3

Without Children Under 18 76,815 85,697 11.6

Married 67,621 75,431 11.5

Not Married 9,194 10,266 11.7

With Children Under 18 91,603 80,453 -12.2

Married 81,939 62,002 -24.3

Not Married 9,664 18,451 90.9

Non-family Households 60,147 91,002 51.3

Single 52,028 75,420 45.0

With Non-Relatives 8,934 15,582 74.4


32

Households by Type

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Ho

use

ho

lds

Married withChildren

Marriedwithoutchildren

Other familywith children

Other familywithoutchildren

Nonfamilyhoushold

North Dakota Households by Type: 1960 to 2000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000


33

Household TypesNorth Dakota Households by Type: 2000

Other non-family households

6%

Persons living alone29%

Other family without children

4%

Other family with children

7%

Married without children

30%

Married with children

24%


34

PERSONS LIVING ALONE:1-Person Households: 1940 to 2000(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

1-

Pe

rso

n H

ou

sh

old

s

Total

Renter-OccupiedOwner-Occupied


35

Percentage Change in the Number of Elderly Householders Living Alone (65 Years and Older)North Dakota by County: 1990 to 2000

Decrease: -28% to -12%Decrease: -11% to 0%Increase: 1% to 15%Increase: 16% to 39%

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenry

Sioux

Mountrail

Divide

Burleigh

Benson

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley


36

Housing Trends

1. Shifts in housing stock

2. Growing need for affordable housing

3. Housing conditions good

4. Growing demand for special population


37

Housing Trends

1. Shifts in housing stock


38

NORTH DAKOTA HOME OWNERSHIP RATES:Annual Homeownership Rates: 1984 to 2003(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

55

60

65

70

75

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Per

cen

t


39

Owner-Occupied Housing Units


Percent Change in Owner-Occupied Housing Units by County: 1990 to 2000

Percent Change: 1990 to 2000LossGain: 0% to 19.9%Gain: 20% to 59.9%Gain: 60% or more


40

Renter-Occupied Housing Units


Percent Change in Renter-Occupied Housing Units by County: 1990 to 2000

Percent Change: 1990 to 2000LossGain: 0% to 12.9%Gain: 13% to 36.9%Gain: 37% or more


41

Age of Housing

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenryMountrail

Sioux

Benson

Divide

Burleigh

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

Richland

Logan

Dickey

Traill

Mercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

LaMoure

Eddy

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Grand Forks

Sargent

Sheridan

Renville

Ransom

GriggsFoster

McIntosh

GoldenValley

1940 - 19511952 - 19591960 - 19671968 - 1976

Median Year Housing Structure Built in North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census, Summary File 3, Table H35


42

Housing Units by Structure

Housing Units by Structure Type in North Dakota: 1960 to 2000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1 UnitStructures

2 UnitStructures

3-4 UnitStructures

5+UnitStructures

MobileHomes/Other

Hou

sing

Uni

ts 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000


43

Housing Trends

2. Growing need for affordable housing


44

Affordable Housing

Benchmark: housing should be within 30% of household income (statewide MFI=$52,500)

- 57% of current owner- or renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those below 30% MFI

- 21% of current owner-occupied and 17% of renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those between 31-50% MFI


45

LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2005

(SOURCE: CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: MARCH 17, 2004)

STATE

NUMBER OF AUTHORIZED

VOUCHERS AS OF JULY 2003

IMPACT OF ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL IN 2005

REDUCTION IN VOUCHER

SUBSIDY FUNDING

REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF FAMILIES

ASSISTED IF CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT

BY ELIMINATING VOUCHERS

INCREASE IN ANNUAL RENT IF

CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT BY

RAISING RENT BURDENS

North Dakota 7,225 $3,212,266 876 $435


46

LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2009

(SOURCE: CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: MARCH 17, 2004)

STATE

IMPACT OF ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL IN 2009

REDUCTION IN VOUCHER

SUBSIDY FUNDING

REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF FAMILIES ASSISTED IF CUTS WERE CARRIED

OUT BY ELIMINATING VOUCHERS

INCREASE IN ANNUAL RENT IF CUTS WERE

CARRIED OUT BY RAISING RENT

BURDENS

North Dakota

$8,560,170 2,102 $1,132


47

Housing Trends

3. Housing conditions good


48

Housing Conditions

General housing conditions in North Dakota are very good

- Less than ½ percent of owner-occupied units lack complete plumbing or kitchen facilities

- About 1% of owner-occupied units and 4% of renter-occupied units are overcrowded (more than 1 person per room)

- ½ percent of renter-occupied lack plumbing and 1% lack kitchen facilities


49

Housing Trends

4. Growing demand for special populations


50

Special Populations

Survey of homeless indicate unmet need for 2,136 persons --- 40% are families with children

-Need for low and moderate-income elderly-- cost burden exceed 30% of household income for 15% of elderly (55 years and over) owner-occupied units and 35% in renter-occupied units


51

Projected Housing DemandFindings: Between 2000-2015

• Age of householder• 15-34 will decline 8% (nearly 5,000)• 35-54 decline 15% (over 15,000)• 55-74 will increase 50% (over 29,800)• 75 and over will increase 38% (over 12,500)


52


• Income of householder• Below 30% MFI will increase 15% (7,426)• 31-50% MFI will increase 12% (4,789)• 51-60% MFI will increase 9% (3,490)• Above 115% will increase 8% (2,555)


53


• Type of householder• First-time homebuyer will decline 9% • Upscale homebuyer will increase 8% • Low-income homebuyer will increase 6%• Moderate homebuyer will increase 8%• Elderly homebuyer will increase 42%


54

Projected Supply

Findings• Statewide, current trends indicate 1% growth

between 2000-2015 (additional 30,562 units• Demand driven forecast more robust (additional

increase of 32,157)• Regions I, III, VII demand forecast greater than

current housing growth pattern (due to elderly)• Grand Forks unique


55

Key Leaders SurveyMethod• Telephone survey of 183 key leaders

• County, major city, reservation, realtors, apartment association, builders, etc.

• Topics included:• Housing supply/demand• Housing quality & affordability• Barriers to development• Special needs population• Policy/program concerns


56

Key Leaders Survey

Findings• Economic health of communities is good• Visionary leadership• Important local issues

• Economic development• Retention of young adults• Aging population• Infrastructure• Social issues/special populations


57

Key Leaders Survey

Findings• Sufficient public housing• Housing stock in good repair (except reservations)

• Affordable housing has changed little (exceptions larger cities and Region V)

• ¼ concerned about barriers to development• Zoning, cost, available infrastructure, multi-

family unit restrictions, lot size, agricultural land


58

Recommendations• Top priority--- elderly housing issues• Older homes and need for rehabilitation• Increase demand for extremely low-, low-, moderate-

income homes• Special population needs

• Homeless• Low-income elderly

• Task force to explore innovative programs• Cuts in Federal Programs


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Statewide Housing Needs Assessment Presentation 2004

Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND

NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105 [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc

prepared by the north dakota state data center february 2005 1 north dakota statewide housing needs...

Documents

north dakota cities

housing policyprograms

needs assessment detailed

population consolidation

population density slide

preview data products

historical housing patterns

age distribution slide