preparedness of cez to new builds -...
TRANSCRIPT
PREPAREDNESS OF CEZ
TO NEW BUILDS
11th Annual Conference on Nuclear Energy
November 7th, 2018 – Prague, Kaiserštejn Palace
Petr Závodský
Director; New nuclear construction
MAIN TOPICS
1
➢ State Energy Policy
➢ New Nuclear build in the Czech Republic
➢ Summary & discussion
CZECH ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGIC GOALS
Security of supply – provision of necessary power supply for consumer
in regular operation and at leap change conditions (failures supplies
prime sources, variations in prices on markets, disturbances and
attacks) in the EU context;
Competitiveness (energetics and social acceptability) – final costs of
electricity for industrial consumer and for homes comparable at region
and next straight forward competitors + power utilities able in the long
term create economic added value;
Sustainability (sustainable development) – structure energy industries,
that is in the long term sustainable from the point of view of
environment (no worsening qualities of environment), moneywise -
economic (financial stability power companies and ability ensure
needed investment in renewal and development), human resources
(intelligence) and social impact (employment rate) and primary
resources (accessibility).
2
3
High consum. scenario
NPP Dukovany till 2027
Keeping limits at ČSA
Low scenario of renewables
No new nuclear
Import of electricity
Natural gas
Gas scenario with limited self sufficiency
Low consum. scenario
NPP Dukovany till 2027
No new nuclear
Keeping limits at ČSA
High scenario of renewables
Renewables
Import of electricity
Green scenario with limited self
sufficiency
Electricity consumption
NPP Decom.
New Nuclear
Lignite mining limits
Renewables development
Key source
Energy balance
Reference scenario
NPP Dukovany till 2037
Three units (2033-2037)
Keeping limits at ČSA
Realistic RES scenario
Nuclear
Full self sufficiency
Optimized scenario according to SEP
Reference scenario
NPP Dukovany beyond 2040
Two units (2030,2032)
Prolomení ÚEL
Realistic RES scenario
Combination
Export remainder
Secure and sefl sufficient
Reference scenario
NPP Dukovany beyond 2040
One unit (2038)
Breaking mining limits
Low scenario of renewables
Possible Import
Conventional sources
Conventional and Economical
Low consum. scenario
NPP Dukovany till 2034
Two units (2033,2038)
Keeping limits at ČSA
High PV, wind
Full self sufficiency
Low carbon sources
Decarburization scenario
STATE ENERGY POLICY HAS BEEN APPROVED
IN 2015
SEP – GAS AND GREEN SCENARIO
Gas scenario with limited self sufficiency:
• With reference to default none of criteria triad strategic objective of SEP – security of supply , sustainability and competitiveness, this scenario is not recommended.
• Nevertheless this scenario is not at all unrealistic. Practically it will be materialized if there is no start of new nuclear project in the following 3 ÷ 5 years.
Green scenario with limited self sufficiency:
• This scenario is in principle contrariety to security of supply as well as to competitiveness.
4
46%
Nuclear
11%
Coal (hard and lignite) 5%
Natural Gas
18%
Renewables
58%21% 15%
25%
Relative minimum
Relative maximum
GOAL CORRIDORS OF FUTURE POWER
GENERATION ACCORDING TO SEP
* Source: State Energy Policy
THERE WILL OCCUR SIGNIFICANT ENERGY
DEFICIT LATEST IN 2035 (EVEN WITH EXPECTATION OF
STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF RES)
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
20
42
20
43
20
44
20
45
GW
h
Hnědé uhlí Černé uhlí
Zemní plyn Ostatní plyny
Ostatní paliva Obnovitelné a druhotné zdroje energie
Jádro Jádro nové
Referenční scénář spotřeby Vysoký scénář spotřeby
Nízký scénář spotřeby Bez recertifikace JEDU
* Optimised scenario of Czech energy strategy6
Brown coal
Natural gas
Other
Nuclear
Reference scenario
Low scenario
Hard coal
Other gases
Renewables
New Nuclear
High scenario
Decomm. EDU in 2025-27 + new NPP in 2035
CO2 FOOTPRINT
7
SYSTEM COSTS
8
ELECTRICITY PRICES IN EU
9
CENY ELEKTŘINY V EU
1010
EUROPE
Finland
OL3, prep 2 new
units
Rusia
New construction
+ plans
Bulgaria & Romania
Kozloduy, Cernavoda
Hungary
New unit at Paks
France
Construction at
FLA3, Life
Extension
England
Preparation of new
construction / new
legislation / HPC
Slovenia
New unit at Krsko
Germany
Phase out till 2022
Sweden
Replacement of
old units
Italy
No nuclear in
referendum
Spain
Life Extension
Ukraine
Plans for new
units
Slovakia
Construction at
Mochovce,
Preparation at
Jaslovské Bohunice
Belorusia
2 new unitsLithuaniaNew BWR in
cooperation with
Baltic countries
Turkey
Plans for 6 units
Switzerland
No new nuclear
Belgium
Phase out ??
Poland
Prep. of new 6
GWe
Czech R.
New units
ČEZ NUCLEAR NEW BUILD PROJECTS
11
New NPP Temelín
➢ SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) established
➢ Fulfilment of conditions from permission and licenses
issued (EIA, Initial Safety Report/nuclear siting, …)
➢ Related investments (at site, in the region)
➢ Other preparatory works (ČEPS, …)
New NPP Dukovany
➢ SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) established
➢ Feasibility study approved
➢ EIA process ongoing
➢ Site investigation under progress
New NPP Jaslovské Bohunice (SK)
➢ JV company (JESS) established in 2009
➢ Joint Czech / Slovak team established
➢ Feasibility study approved
➢ EIA process completed
➢ Site investigation under progress
51
%
49
%
100
%
ČEZB
ČEZ
Critical path
SCHEDULE
Činnost / MilníkPoč Kon
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
Government
decision06/2015
02/2018
07/2018
EIA01/2015
04/2019
01/2020
Supplier
selection03/2018
03/2023
05/2023
Nuclear sitting01/2017
03/2021
10/2021
Site permit02/2020
05/2022
02/2024
Nuclear
construction
permit
09/202205/2027
06/2028
Civil construction
permit08/2026
02/2028
11/2030
Transportation
route ready09/2016
11/2029
10/2032
Grid ready 10/2033
01/2038
Fist nuclear
concrete06/2028
11/2029
10/2032
Construction and
commissioning
(PAC)
08/202605/2035
11/2039
✓ Výběr EPC dodavatele mimo zákon o
zadávání veřejných zakázek
✓ Short-list EPC dodavatelů po hodnocení
(vyjednávání smlouvy pouze s 1)
✓ Dodržení lhůt pro vydání různých povolení
✓ Objednání komponent s dlouhou dodací
lhůtou (rozhodnutí o investici) v okamžiku
vydání povolení k výstavbě (SÚJB)
✓ Včasné dokončení transportní trasy a
opatření na přenosové soustavě (PS)
✓ Změna legislativy – možnost obálkového
územního řízení hotovo
✓ Řízení dle AZ nejsou navazujícími
řízeními dle zákona EIA hotovo
conditions:
05/2035
02/2028
05/2027
05/2022
03/2023
02/2018
Non critical path Current real schedule
11/2029
10/2033
11/2029
3/2021
04/2019
11/2018
01/2020
05/2023
10/2021
02/2024
06/2028
11/2030
10/2032
10/2032
01/2038
11/2039
05/2034 11/2038
Color – „no-risk“ schedule
Grey – real schedule including risks
ELECTRICITY PRICE
Strike-price [EUR/MWh]
Náklady financování (nominální WACC v %)
Financování investorem při CfD
Financování státem při CfD
9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4%
60 let 92 79 68 59 51 44
35 let 99 86 75 66 58 52
15 let 128 114 103 92 83 76
▪ UK – Hinkley Point C - EdF –
CfD: 110€/MWh (35 years)
▪ Turecko – Akkuyu –
Rosatom: 91€/MWh (15 years)
Hungary – Pakš – MVM II
(100% state owned)
estimation of price 55€MWh
Assumptions: 4200 EUR/kW, construction phase 7 let
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
INVESTMENT INTO 1200MW UNIT
Preparation, selection:
~ 2,5 bilion LWA phase: ~ 17,5 bil Construction: ~ 120 bil
Investice (pro variantu reálného harmonogramu, výstavby pomocí SPV, výběr dle ZVZ)
mld. Kč, v cenách roku 2014, CAPEX 4500 EUR/kW
Po
dp
is E
PC
sm
lou
vy
Ro
zh
od
nu
tí o
za
há
jen
í výsta
vb
y
Pro
jekt vyčle
ně
n d
o S
PV
Zá
drž
ný b
od
–ú
ze
mn
í ro
zh
od
nu
tí
Zádrž
ný b
od –
Povoln
í k v
ýsta
vbě
▪ O celkové investici se
rozhoduje až po roce 2025
▪ Do té doby se rozhoduje
pouze o nákladech na
rozvoj / udržení investiční
příležitosti (viz. šipky)
Preparation phase Construction
1 5 10 15 20
14
15
PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE
68%
47%
63%58% 59%
56%
52%
54%
59%
59%
67%71%
54%
64%67%
59% 58%54% 56% 58% 59%
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
* No research in 2010
Fukushima
NPP
Temelín
start-up
NPP Temelín
in opperation
Public tender
for new NPP
Cancelation of
the tender,
welding
issues
42%41% 40%42%17%17%
opponents
11/20175/2017
supporters ambivalent
11/20175/2017 11/20175/2017
CONCLUSION
16
Could we afford to ignore nuclear energy if we seriously thing
about:
- Decarbonization / air quality protection?
- Energy security?
- Sustainability?
- Competitiveness?
- Opportunities for local industry?
- Price stability?
Germany is razing a 12,000-year-old forest to make way for a coal mineHad California and Germany invested $680 billion into new nuclear power plants instead
of renewables like solar and wind farms, the two would already be generating 100%
or more of their electricity from clean (low-emissions) energy sources, according
to a new analysis by Environmental Progress.
NASA - Offshore Wind Farms Make Wakes
Wind Farms Want Permission To Kill More Bats — A Lot More
Each wind energy project submitted its own take request, but if all are approved,
the original limit of 92 would increase to 483.No, We can‘t!
DISCUSSION
➢What are the alternatives we have, compared to nuclear. How real are they in the
Czech Republic conditions?
➢Which criteria we are taking into the account (is the current spot price the only
criterion we should take into the account)?
➢What is the social price of the security of supply?
➢Will we be able to buy electricity at competitive price, if there are no new
sources in the Czech Republic?
➢ How the energy sector will look like in 2035 without the investment into new
sources?
➢What is the cost of a black-out in the Czech Republic? How real is the risk?
➢What is socially acceptable price for electricity and what is current price?
➢Will not lead postponement of decision on build - up / unsupported build - up
new sources to problems, which will be heavy, or impossible manageable in the
future?
17
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
18