Preparing for the 21C tech tsunami

@ProfRayWills

Prof Ray Wills

Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies

Partner and DirectorSun Brilliance Power

Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia

How to be abetter surfer What’s happening

globally with new tech?

Where is all this new tech taking us?

What do markets tell us all about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on everything?

How do we prepare ourselves and our towns and cities for

mind-boggling rapid change?

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

@ProfRayWills

Roger’s diffusion curve

@ProfRayWills

Wake up and smell the roses

Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay -> Cloud Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

@ProfRayWills

Technology adoption rates – US

@ProfRayWillsNY Times

Technology adoption rates – US Renewables – ‘it’s just technology, stupid’ Solar panels are VCRs, not dishwashers Batteries will be, too

@ProfRayWillsNY Times

The Big Bang Theory

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Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - Govt

Zoepf 2011

A Brief Moment in Time

Predicting anything is difficult

Predicting anything is difficult

@ProfRayWills

And don’t forget the old tech exit

Declining PV price

Bloomberg NEF

Solar rising – by falling

@ProfRayWills

Global renewables growth …

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Global renewables growth and forecast

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Build it and they will come

@ProfRayWills

Storage will be simply a common commodity

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Global energy – fossil & renewables

Global energy – fossil & renewables

Global energy – impact on emissions

A swarm, a cluster, a wave, a tsunami 20th Century: Command and Control

21st Century: Suggest & Choose – local, distributed, democratic – open source, exponential innovation

Renewable energy, EVs, batteries eRetail and market-led marketing iEverything – Internet of Things (IoT) + sensors Automation, hybrids, AI & CI, robotics, robility 3D printing, additive manufacturing, construction Finance, banking, insurance – and crowd-fundingSuggest & Choose driving supply chain from bottom

@ProfRayWills

@ProfRayWills

Data driven electric markets …

@ProfRayWills

Potential EV growth

Autonomous

Rapid change - robility

Batteries – home storage + EVs

Robotics will aid every one – but erode every labor market

Robotics will aid every one – but erode every labor market

Traffic management will be controlled by traffic – social media data

@ProfRayWills

Solar gen 2, gen 3, gen 4 … 1st gen solar cell made from silicon

2nd gen solar cell thin-films 1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’

2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material 3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic

dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing, solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.

Solar as just another consumer product

Solar on Australian homes 1.6 million solar installs in Australia, total 5 GW of capacity; output

estimated 6100 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to June 2016. WA – 207k rooftops with solar, a total of 600 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 9.6k homes, 23.3 MW of capacity

Solar in Western Australian towns

WA’s largest … Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC solar 165ha farm Cunderdin

WA wheatbelt, east of Perth Development to break new

ground on a number of fronts in the Australian solar market

Not shutting capacity – taking it

@ProfRayWills

Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power

needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.

Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids…

Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

We need governments to act …

Wind

Efficiency Solar

Biomass Hydro Waves/Tidal

Hydrothermal

Geothermal

We need governments to act – but… World faiths promising to act

We need governments to act – but… Companies promising to act

World’s largest … taxi company owns no taxis (Uber) hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB) telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat) retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba) financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal) media service creates no content (Facebook) movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix) software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google)Will largest energy companies generate no energy?The battle field is the slickest customer interface

@ProfRayWills

@ProfRayWills