preparing to speak at staples, inc. team 6 ocean university of china disaster prevention research...
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Preparing to Speak at Staples, Inc. TEAM 6Ocean University of China
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Disaster Prevention Research Institute
Prof. Liu DefuProf. Liu Defu
Preparing to Speak at Staples, Inc. TEAM 6Ocean University of China
At the end of April, 1991, the tropical cyclone induced storm surges led to140 ,000 people deaths and economical damage was over three billion dollars in Bangladesh.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 induced the most catastrophic failure of an engineering system in the history of United States: approximately 2000 people died as a result of this disaster in New Orleans. Direct costs are estimated to approach 400 billions dollars.
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis made landfall with sustained winds of 130 mph in Burma and caused a huge tidal surge to sweep inland. The death toll from this storm reached more than ten thousands.
Historical review of the typhoon disaster
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Typhoonname
Maximum
Wind (m/s)
Influenced Provinces
InfluencedAgriculture
Area(thousand
hectare)
InfluencedPopulation
(million)
Death &lost
population
EconomicalLoss(RMB)
(billion)
Chanchu 45 Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang
368.96 11.06 30+5 8.56
Bilis 30 Fujian, Guangdong,
Hunan, Guangxi,Zhejiang, Jiangxi
1170.38 29.85 655+194 32.99
Kaemi 40 Fujian, Guangdong,
Hunan, Guangxi,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,
Anhui, Hubei
397.56 8.42 29+35 5.89
Prapiroon
35 Guangdong,Guangx,
Hainan
569.43 11.11 66+9 8.23
Saomai 75.8 Fujiang, zhejiang,Jiangxi, Hubei
223.16 5.99 459+111 19.49
Tab. 2006 Typhoon disaster detail
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Ocean University of China
The typhoon characteristics are usually described by using maximum central pressure difference (ΔP), radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax), moving speed of typhoon center (s), minimum distance between typhoon center and target site (δ ), and typhoon moving angle (θ ). But one of the chief advantages lies in taking the annual typhoon frequency (λ) into account as a discrete random variable in the new model derivation.
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No. ΔP (hPa
)
δ(km) S (m/s) Rmax(km)
5612# 87 146 20.6 36.09
7413# 35 220 19.8 66.25
9711# 50 188 28.8 52
Different combinations of typhoon characteristics led to corresponding disasters
In order to test the calculation errors of the model, typhoon 5612#, 7413#, and 9711# are taken as the samples.
In 1956, typhoon 12# made landfall with sustained winds of 130 mph and 923hPa atmospheric pressure. The storm surge caused by this super typhoon reached 4.2m.
Typhoon 7413# landed with 968hPa atmospheric pressure and the maximum wind power reached Force 12.The water level caused by typhoon 7413# exceeded history record.
Typhoon 9711# which landed on August 18 is the most influential typhoon in north and middle regions of Zhejiang Province in history.
The detail of these typhoons is following:
Tab. The joint probability of samples
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Surge(cm)
Return level of storm surge
(a)*
Joint probability of typhoon
**(a)
5612# 420 501 179
7413# 175 8 4.8
9711# 233 18 7.0
Fictitious typhoon
448 714 327
Ocean University of China
Fig. The tracks of typhoon
In this model, the long term probability characteristics of typhoon factors such as the typhoon occurring frequency (λ), drop of central pressure (ΔP), radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax), typhoon moving speed (S), minimum distance between typhoon center and certain area (δ) are considered.
Tab.3 Comparison of storm surge at Zhapu station with return period*and joint return period**
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The track of typhoon Nina
Typhoon Nina
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Historical reviews show that typhoon Ninatyphoon Nina in 1975 with duration 101 hours, induced Banqiao dam in the inland province Henan collapse and lead to 62 downstream dams collapse . typhoon Bilistyphoon Bilis in 2006 from landfall to dissipation persisted for 120 hours.
So typhoon durationtyphoon duration from landfall to dissipation (t) must be considered for extreme event prediction.
Typhoon duration from landfall to dissipation (t)
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Double layer nested multi-objective probability model (DLNMOPM) is proposed, in which the joint probability prediction of different typhoon characteristics (such as the typhoon occurring frequency , drop of central pressure, radius of maximum wind speed, typhoon moving speed, minimum distance between typhoon center and certain area, typhoon moving angle and duration from typhoon land to dissipation) are taken as the first layer and typhoon induced disaster factors (such as strong wind, storm surge, huge wave, heavy rain, flood, and so on) are taken as the second layer.
The new model will be used to establish typhoon disaster zoning and the prevention criteria system.
Double layer nested multi-objective probability model
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The double-layer nested multi-objective probability model
The first layer
Typhoon occurring frequency λ
Maximum central pressure difference (ΔP)
Radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax)
Moving speed of typhoon center (s)
Minimum distance betweenTyphoon center and target
site (δ)
Typhoon moving angle (θ)
Typhoon duration from landfall
to dissipation (t)
Joint probability analysis by using P-ISP
Stormsurge
Heavy rain
FloodStrong wind
Huge wave
Joint probability analysis using MCEVD
Typhoon disaster zoning and protection criterion
Select the target site
The second layer
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Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed.
The first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4 ) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, then the model was used in “Long term distribution of hurricane characteristics for Gulf of Mexico &Atlantic coasts, U.S.(OTC.1982).
During the past few years, CEVD has been developed into Multivariate
Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD) and applied to predict and prevent typhoon induced disasters for offshore and coastal areas.
Theory of Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD)
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The MCEVD is derived based on the theory measure and order statistics by compounding a discrete distribution with multivariate distribution as follows:
111
11
11111111
111
111
1
111
111
),,()(
)|,3,2,,,,(..
)|,...,(
),...,(
,...,,...,
1
inn
ix x
i
jnni
i
ikj
ijnn
i
ki
nni
nnn
duduuuguGip
iNijxxPip
iNMaxxXxXPp
iNxXxXP
xXxXPxxF
n
111
111 ),,()(),,(
1
inn
ix x
in duduuuguGipxxFn
This can be proved as follows:
( 1)
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)),,(1(),,;( 2121)(
21 nnxF
n dxdxdxxxxfeexxxP
In which, -- mean value of the annual typhoon frequency; -- joint probability domain; -- probability density function and cumulative function;
-- stochastic variables such as ΔP, Rmax, s, δ, θ, t, and so on.
Ff ,
nxxx ,, 21
!i
eP
i
i
Therefore, Eq. (1) is proved. As mentioned above, the frequency of typhoon (hurricane, winter storm) occurrence
can be fitted to Poisson distribution :
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In the formula CEVD instead of ,the following formulas can be used for PNLTCED:
However, it also can be solved by P-ISP.
321
1
3
333
1
2
222
1
1
111
321
111exp
,,
xxx
xxxF
nn xxxfxxxF ,,,, 2121 ,
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• Study showed that the 50 yrs and 1000yrs hurricane central pressure P0 predicted by CEVD were close to the Standard Project Hurricane (SPH) and Probable Maximum Hurricane (PMH) proposed by NOAA respectively in most of the coastal areas,
• except Zone 1 of Florida coasts and Zone A of Gulf coasts where more severe and reasonable results were obtained using CEVD
Engineering applications
1. Prediction of the disaster in New Orleans induced by hurricane Katrina
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SPH and PMH are only close to CEVD 30~40yr and 120yr return values, SPH and PMH are only close to CEVD 30~40yr and 120yr return values, respectively. In 2005, hurricane Katrina and Rita attacked coastal area of the respectively. In 2005, hurricane Katrina and Rita attacked coastal area of the USA, which caused deaths of about 2000 people and economical loss of $400 USA, which caused deaths of about 2000 people and economical loss of $400 billion in the city of New Orleans and destroyed more than 110 platforms in the billion in the city of New Orleans and destroyed more than 110 platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf of Mexico.
The disaster certified that using SPH as flood-protective standard was a The disaster certified that using SPH as flood-protective standard was a main reason of the catastrophic results.main reason of the catastrophic results.
Comparison between NOAA and CEVD Comparison between NOAA and CEVD ZoneZone NOAA (hPa)NOAA (hPa) CEVD (hPa)CEVD (hPa) HurricaneHurricane
(hPa)(hPa)
AA SPHSPHPMHPMH
941.0941.0890.5890.5
50-yr50-yr1000-yr1000-yr
910.8910.8866.8866.8
KatrinaKatrina902.0902.0
11 SPHSPHPMHPMH
919.3919.3885.4885.4
50-yr50-yr1000-yr1000-yr
904.0904.0832.9832.9
RitaRita894.9894.9
Ocean University of China
MethodsMethods MCEVDMCEVD(2006)(2006)
Cole et al. Cole et al. (2003)(2003)
Casson & Casson & ColesColes
(2000)(2000)
Georgion et Georgion et alal
(1983)(1983)
100yr Wind speed 100yr Wind speed (m/s)(m/s)
70.670.6 46.046.0 38.038.0 39.039.0
Comparison among MCEVD and other methods Comparison among MCEVD and other methods
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• After Hurricane Katrina2005, we reanalyzed hurricane disaster along American coasts. Study shows, in Region 2,4,7,11, the predicted hurricane strength using our model are close to those of other researchers, but in Region1,3,6,8,10 our results are more greater, especially significant in New Orleans area and Florida. The destroy of New Orleans approved our theory is reasonable.
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2 Design water level for disaster prevention in ShanghaiShanghai is located in the estuarine area of the Yangtze River in China. Historical observation data shows that typhoon induced surges, flood peak run-off from the Yangtze River and astronomical spring tides have caused significant losses of lives and properties to Shanghai City.
The combined effects of storm surge, upper river flooding and spring tides on the coastal structures is the prime factor for disaster prevention
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43.3
The number of tropical storm in one year
Total years/Total number
frequency
Shanghai0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Year of occurrence
0 4 3 3 6 2 2 1 72/21
Tab. Typhoon frequency in Shanghai (1962-1987)
Probability plot
empirical
model
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
model
1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Return Level Plot
Return period
Retu
rn le
vel
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
1.0 1.5 2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Density
x
f(x)
Probability plot
empirical
mod
el
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
mod
el
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
0.0
50
.15
0.2
5
Return Level Plot
Return period
Re
turn
lev
el
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
0.0
50
.15
0.2
50
.35
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
01
23
45
6
Density
x
f(x
)
Fig . Diagnostic check of spring tide. Fig. Diagnostic check of flood.
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Joint return Joint return period period (years)(years)
Flood Flood surgesurge(m)(m)
Storm Storm surgesurge(m)(m)
Spring-tideSpring-tide(m)(m)
Design Design water water level level (m)(m)
100 0.43 1.32 4.14* 5.89*Tab. shows that the design water level for a 100-yr joint return period event predicted by PNLTCEVD is close to the 1000-yr water level predicted by the traditional univariate extrapolation method for Shanghai.
Probability plot
empirical
model
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
model
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Return Level Plot
Return period
Retu
rn le
vel
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Density
x
f(x)
Fig. Diagnostic check of storm surge.
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Furthermore, more than 37 nuclear power plants along coast of
South-east China Sea are constructing or in planning and designing state.
Adequate estimations of extreme high-water levels are very important for coastal hazard mitigation because the coastal areas of the world are becoming increasingly populated.
3. Discussion on Coastal Nuclear Power Plant Safety Regulations of China
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Design Basic Flood (Design Basic Flood (DBFDBF), Probable Maximum Typhoon (), Probable Maximum Typhoon (PMTPMT), ), Standard Project Typhoon (Standard Project Typhoon (SPTSPT) and Probable Maximum Storm ) and Probable Maximum Storm Surge (Surge (PMSSPMSS) will be discussed.) will be discussed.
According to “According to “HAD101/11HAD101/11”, PMSS should be obtained based on ”, PMSS should be obtained based on PMT. So aiming at PMT with different combinations of typhoon PMT. So aiming at PMT with different combinations of typhoon characteristics, some sensitive factors should be selected as control characteristics, some sensitive factors should be selected as control factors and substituted into procedure of GUA and GSA. The PMSS factors and substituted into procedure of GUA and GSA. The PMSS corresponding to PMT of different sea areas can be derived by corresponding to PMT of different sea areas can be derived by repeated calculations.repeated calculations.
Ocean University of China
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Typhoon characteristics(λ 、 ΔP 、 Rmax 、 s 、 δ 、 θ 、
t)
Joint probability analysis
Storm surge (SS) model
Max. SS?
PMSSSpring tide Wave height
Joint probability analysis
Design criteria for nuclear engineering
GUA&GSA
No
Yes
Layer 1
Layer 2
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Float chart of of DLNMPM
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According to the GSA results of existing data, annual typhoon According to the GSA results of existing data, annual typhoon frequency (λ), maximum central pressure difference (ΔP), radius of frequency (λ), maximum central pressure difference (ΔP), radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax), moving speed of typhoon center (s) maximum wind speed (Rmax), moving speed of typhoon center (s) and typhoon duration (t) are selected as control factors for PMSS and typhoon duration (t) are selected as control factors for PMSS analysis.analysis.
For joint probability analysis, the marginal distribution parameters of For joint probability analysis, the marginal distribution parameters of λ,ΔP, Rmax, s, t should be confirmed. Results show thatλfits to λ,ΔP, Rmax, s, t should be confirmed. Results show thatλfits to Poisson distribution, while ΔP, Rmax, s and t can be described by Poisson distribution, while ΔP, Rmax, s and t can be described by Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD). (See Table 4 and Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD). (See Table 4 and Fig 2) Fig 2)
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Typhoon characteristic
Marginal distribution parameters
Location parameter
Scale parameter
Shape parameter
s 22.82 9.69 0.16
Rmax 30.28 12.15 0.52
t 10.45 4.54 -0.04
ΔP 15.16 8.71 0.16
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Annual occurance rate of typhoon
pro
ba
bili
ty d
en
sityFor joint probability analysis, the For joint probability analysis, the
marginal distribution parameters marginal distribution parameters of λ,ΔP, Rmax, s, t should be of λ,ΔP, Rmax, s, t should be confirmed, results show thatλfits confirmed, results show thatλfits to Poisson distribution.to Poisson distribution.
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Probability plot
empirical
model
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
model
0 20 40 60 80
10
20
30
40
50
60
Return Level Plot
Return period
Retu
rn le
vel
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
020
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80
0.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
4
Density
x
f(x)
Probability plot
empirical
model
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
model
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
20
40
60
80
120
160
Return Level Plot
Return period
Retu
rn le
vel
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
0200
400
600
800
0 50 100 150
0.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
3
Density
x
f(x)
Probability plot
empirical
model
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
model
20 40 60 80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Return Level Plot
Return period
Retu
rn le
vel
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
20
40
60
80
120
20 40 60 80 100
0.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
3
Density
x
f(x)
Probability plot
empirical
model
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Quantile Plot
empirical
model
10 15 20 25
510
15
20
25
Return Level Plot
Return period
Retu
rn level
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
10
20
30
5 10 15 20 25
0.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
8
Density
x
f(x)
Distribution diagnostic testing of ΔP Distribution diagnostic testing of Rmax
Distribution diagnostic testing of s Distribution diagnostic testing of t
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Using DLNMPM, some combinations of typhoon characteristic factors with Using DLNMPM, some combinations of typhoon characteristic factors with different joint return period can be gottendifferent joint return period can be gotten
Joint return period(yrs
)
Typhoon characteristic factors
ΔP (hPa) Rmax (km) S (km/h) T (h)
1000 95 198 35 72
500 85 185 48 60
100 76 147 54 40
50 70 112 67 24
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Variables
Return period (a)
50 100 500 1000
Storm surge (m) 2.43 2.79 3.49 3.85
Spring tide (m) 1.99 2.14 2.19 2.75
Wave height (m) 6.3 6.6 7.3 7.9
Tab Extreme water level with different combination
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Return period:1000a CEVD Traditional DBF
water level (m) 3.85+2.75=6.6 6.35
Wave height (m) 7.9 6.6
It can be seen that 1000 years return values of storm surge, spring tide (3.85+2.75=6.6m6.6m) and wave height (7.9m7.9m) should be more severe than HAF0111 proposed DBI (6.35m6.35m) with 100 years return period wave height (6.6m6.6m).
Tab. The comparison between CEVD and traditional DBF
Ocean University of China
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Conclusions
The theory of MCEVD and DLNMOPM model is based on the combinations of typhoon process maximum data sampling and joint probability analysis of typhoon characteristics and their corresponding extreme sea environments. It can be widely used not only in climatologic disaster prediction, but also for engineering project risk assessment.
The 1975 typhoon Nina and 2005 hurricane Katrina give the most important lesson: they are only natural hazards, but when natural hazards combined with human hubris, the natural hazards should be become disaster, catastrophe sooner or latter.
We hope: human hubris always out of decision making.
Ocean University of China
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Thank you for your Thank you for your attention!attention!