SEAMEO Centre Directors Meeting, 16-18 July 2012, Bangkok, Thailand

Efficiency of Schooling for SkillsProposal for SEAMEO-OECD co-operationIan Whitman, OECDHead of Programme for Co-operation with Non-member Economies

Unite

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h Re

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Esto

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Germ

any

Switz

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Denm

ark

Cana

da

Norw

ay

Swed

en

Russ

ian

Fede

ratio

n4

Aust

ria3

Slov

enia

Israe

l

Slov

ak R

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New

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land

Hung

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Finl

and

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Icela

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Belg

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Pola

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Irela

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Chile

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Gree

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Italy

Spai

n

Turk

ey

Port

ugal

Mex

ico

Braz

il2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s

%

1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004

3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

10

1

1

29

Selected Trends: A world of change in the global skill supply

Evolution of school completion Approximated by % of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 and

25-34 years

JapanIndiaBrazilAustraliaUnited StatesTurkeySwitzerlandNew ZealandMexicoGreeceGermany BelgiumCanadaItaly SloveniaAustriaChinaHungaryCzech RepublicFranceNetherlandsSwedenUnited KingdomSouth AfricaSpainNorwayIrelandPoland

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30

Share of employers reporting recruitment difficulties Unemployment rates (2011, Q3)

Percentage

Unemployment rate

Recruitment dif-ficulties

Share of employers reporting recruitment difficulties and unemployment rates

How the demand for skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)

1960 1970 1980 1990 200240

45

50

55

60

65

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interactive

(Levy and Murnane)

Mean

task

in

pu

t as

perc

en

tile

s of

th

e 1

96

0 t

ask

d

istr

ibu

tion

Skill mismatch and earnings are strongly related

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 651000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Age

Mon

thly

wag

es U

S$

Wealth matters - but effective policies matter more

6

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

314

362

370 371

385 390398

402404 412413 416

421 425 426

442 449

476495

515

470

506

429

524

Czech Rep

495501

536

496497

483494500

496

474486

520

405

484468

487

508521

500489

424

459

556

526

477483 481

497UK

500

f(x) = 0.000987390729328573 x + 435.445868351158R² = 0.243926777190705

GDP per capita (current USD)

Mea

n re

adin

g pe

rfor

man

ce in

PIS

A 20

09

Performance and spending

7

Kyrgyzs

tan

Azerbaij

an Peru

Panam

a

Albania

Kazakh

stan

Argentina

Indonesia

Tunisia Braz

il

Colombia

Trinidad

and To

bago

Thail

and

Mexico

Uruguay

Serbia

Chile

Croatia

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

0

5

10

15

20

25

PISA reading performancePublic spending on education, total (% of government expenditure)

Mea

n re

adin

g pe

rform

ance

in P

ISA

2009

Publ

ic sp

endi

ng o

n ed

ucati

on (%

of g

over

nmen

t exp

en-

ditu

re)

Source: OECD PISA 2009 Database; Education at a Glance (2011); World Bank Indicators 2011 (Data from 2008 or last year for which data is available)

OECD average

OECD average

Relative public spending on education: SEAMEO region

Source: OECD; World Bank

Brunei Darussalam

Singapore

Lao PDR

Cambodia

OECD members

Timor-Leste

East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Myanmar

Vietnam

Thailand

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

8.5

11.6

12.2

12.4

12.4

15.5

16.4

16.9

17.2

17.9

18.1

19.8

20.3

Public expenditure on education as % of gov. expen-diture

(2009 or most recent year )

Relative public spending on education: SEAMEO region

Source: OECD; World Bank

Myanmar

Cambodia

Lao PDR

Philippines

Indonesia

Singapore

East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)

Brunei Darussalam

Malaysia

Thailand

OECD

Vietnam

Timor-Leste

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

1.3

2.1

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.4

3.7

4.1

4.1

5.2

5.3

16.8

Public expenditure on education as % of GDP(2009 or most recent year )

Trends in education spending: SEAMEO region

Source: OECD; World Bank

Trends in expenditure per student 2000-2010, secondary education (current USD)

Future trends and efficiency implications: youth literacy rate

Source: World Bank Indicators

Indi

a (2

006)

China

Indo

nesia

(200

8)

Russian

Fed

erat

ion

South

Africa

(200

7)

Brazil (

2008

)

OECD (200

6)

East A

sia

& P

acifi

c (O...

Brune

i Dar

ussa

lam

Cambo

dia

(200

8)

Lao P

DR

Mal

aysia

(200

7)

Mya

nmar

Philip

pine

s

Singa

pore

(200

5)

Thaila

nd

Vietn

am

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Literacy rate, youth total (% of people ages 15-24) 2009

female

male

School enrollment, tertiary (%, gross enrollment)

Source: World Bank Indicators

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

East Asia & Pacific

OECD members

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Lao PDR

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Timor-Leste

Vietnam

Outputs and efficiency: youth literacy rate

Source: World Bank Indicators

OECD mem

bers

Thaila

nd

East A

sia

& P

acifi

c (al

l inc

ome

leve

ls)

Mya

nmar

Vietn

am

Cambo

dia

South

Asia

Lao P

DR

Mal

aysia

Philip

pine

s

Singa

pore

Brune

i Dar

ussa

lam

Timor

-Les

te0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Population growth 2010, annual (%)

Outputs and efficiency: student achievement

Source: OECD PISA Database 2009

Shang

hai-C

hina

Korea

Finla

nd

Hong

Kong-

China

Singa

pore

OECD mea

n

Unite

d Kin

gdom

Mac

ao-C

hina

Dubai

(UAE)

Chile

Thaila

nd

Indo

nesia

Argen

tina

Kazak

hsta

n

Qatar

Kyrgy

zsta

n0

100

200

300

400

500

600Mean PISA performance in reading

Education levels of the unemployed population

Source: OECD; UNESCO; ILO

Thailand Brunei Darussalam

OECD members Malaysia Philippines Singapore0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

86.088.4

77.6 74.9

59.8 56.6

0.1

6.8

24.6 25.1

39.4 43.2

tertiarynon-tertiary

Enrolment in Vocational Education and Training in % of all secondary education enrolment, 2009

Source: OECD; UNESCO

G20 a

vera

ge

EU21 a

vera

ge

OECD ave

rage

Thaila

nd

Singa

pore

Brune

i Dar

ussa

lam

Mal

aysia

Vietn

am

Timor

-Les

te

Cambo

dia

Lao P

DR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

General secondary educationVET

What can be done?

Source: OECD

How does a country increase

the efficiencyof skills?

Financing of education and efficiency• Main question: how to achieve more with

less?• Possible efficiency gains through good

policy choices• OECD work on efficiency of education

investment

What next?

Efficiency of Schooling for Skills in South East Asia – proposal for OECD-SEAMEO co-operation

• Study on investing in schooling for skills• Tentative focus and structure

• Are funding systems sustainable?• What factors will influence cost and

efficiency in the future?• Focus: formal schooling, tertiary education

• Follow-up• Participation in OECD activities• Peer learning through thematic workshops• Possibility for in-depth country work

What next?

Thank you!

Ian.whitman@oecd.org