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Presentation at Brainstorming Session on India-Myanmar Strategic Partnership, Organised by RIS, 4 February 2013

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Presentation at Brainstorming Session on India-Myanmar Strategic Partnership, Organised by RIS, 4 February 2013

Map of North East India

Problems of LEP for NE India Maximum trade with the Greater Mekong sub-region,

Bangladesh and ASEAN is likely to move through the international sea lanes, completely by-passing the NE region.

So far the regions which gained from LEP are the hinterlands of Chennai, Vizag and the Calcutta port on the eastern flank.

Given the state of infrastructure and the poor road, rail and air links between neighboring countries and NE region the bulk of the trade is likely to move through the sea ports of India.Unless we change the lenses through which Delhi looks at NE

Should it continue to be a security zone of a special economic zone for trading with Myanmar and beyond?

For India’s North East to gain from India’s FTA with the economies of the east, the focus must be on:

transit arrangements, proliferation of trade routes and custom check posts, easy visa regime to facilitate traders, businessmen and transport operators to move in and out of the region.

This requires substantial investments in infrastructure, construction of highways and bridges, re-establishment of rail links and communication facilities.

The Shukla Committee on ‘Transforming the Northeast’, estimated such investment to exceed Rs 25,000 crore in 1997. By the time Vision 2020 came in the amount to be invested has nearly tripled

A serious attempt to integrate the North East provides innumerable possibilities of economic transformation.

India is looking at harnessing the vast hydroelectric resources from the NE (Arunachal Pradesh alone has the potential to generate 50,000 MW of power) to export electricity to the neighboring countries

India has an integrated plan to harness hydrocarbon resources with a grid of pipelines to move gas and petroleum products into the entire region.

How do NE states also rich in resources and finished products like cement have any role here?

Harnessing the vast river networks to move goods cheaply in and out of the region would add to region’s attractiveness as an investment destination.

Investments in large plants catering not only to the North East but to the neighboring markets in Bangladesh, Nepal, Tibet-Yunnan are also possible. But so far the initiatives are missing

Establishing air and land links to East and Southeast Asia integral to driving the LEP

As part of its road diplomacy, India is now actively building transport corridors to the region. These include the trilateral highway project involving Myanmar and Thailand and the proposed rail link between New Delhi and Hanoi.

But these proposals have not progressed or have been too slow

WE need a more dynamic, time-bound blueprint for integrating NE India with Myanmar other than the land custom station at Moreh

Phase 2 of the LEP has brought together a new economic grouping - BIMSTEC which brings five nations of the Subcontinent (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka) together with two countries from Southeast Asia, Myanmar and Thailand, with a view to promote regional cooperation.

India can now overcome hurdles over economic cooperation in the subcontinent through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

The question is: What is NE’s role in this new economic grouping? Yunnan province of China is similar to NE. Yunnan

plays strategic role in the Chinese pursuit of closer relationship with its neighbors in South and Southeast Asia.

Yunnan too has its ethnic unrest but it is not considered a security threat as far as China is concerned. This is the big difference

It was in the Yunnan capital, Kunming that experts, scholars and business people from China, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh got together to initiate the BCIM Forum in 1999. Track II initiatives are on but as far as India is concerned things are still very tentative.

Yunnan's provincial government plays a far more active role in attracting foreign investments to the province than the Northeast Indian states do. Yunnan plays a key role in institutions of the Greater Mekong sub-region.

But there is little room for India's Northeastern states in the Mekong Ganga Cooperation forum

Why?

Circumventing Northeast India and down-playing the continental dimension of the Look East policy will not only hurt Northeast India but have serious implications for India's diplomatic ambitions as well.

We are aware that historically, India's ties with Southeast Asia have been through sea, not land. Even today it is cheaper and easier to trade with Southeast Asia by sea rather than by land.

But for strategic reasons it is urgent to mobilize the political, intellectual and material resources to make the Northeast India's actual gateway to Southeast Asia.

How can NE engage meaningfully?

Better connectivity between the 7 NE States, the rest of India and ASEAN is imperative.

The proposed sea-link between Kolkata and the Sittwe port has taken a very long time to complete. This route would give India easy access both to the North-East and the countries of ASEAN.

A transport lane through Bangladesh would be quicker, but entails sorting out fundamental difficulties in the bilateral relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka.

For Meghalaya this link is strategic because while Indo-Myanmar ties help some NE states, a link through Chittagong port would help states like Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya and Mizoram

The plan demands that India shed traditional security and trade fears to establish better links with ASEAN and the East through its North-East.

The Chinese Government has made no secret that it wants the old Stilwell Road reopened but New Delhi's response is lukewarm. Why?

Built in the 1940s, the road connects Kunming -capital of China's Yunan province to Ledo in Assam, with most of the 1,736-km road running through Myanmar.

India has a separate road project to link the North-East to Thailand via Myanmar, and a rail link connecting Manipur with Yangon

But restoration of the Stilwell road would provide greater connectivity and help NE emerge as a major transit centre for trade with ASEAN and as a new point in the saturated tourist market of South East Asia.

Thailand, with which India has a (FTA) is interested in the reopening of Stilwel road. For the NE the deal would mean: employment, infrastructure, and capacity-building. The future, as outlined by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh during his current visit to Myanmar is bristling with challenges and opportunities. India must use them or get left out.

Do we wish to see NE India become locked in by Myanmar and Bangladesh in the east and south and by India in the west ?

What happens to such alienated peripheries?

This brainstorm seeks to focus on NE engagement with the LEP

Key strengths of NE - Agriculture & Horticulture, IT, Cultural, Religious and Health Tourism, Rubber, Hydro-electric Power, Education, English speaking population, Music and cultural affinities

Developing the above means developing necessary infrastructure under a different more professional format and not simply by pushing funds to the region. This has been a failed project.

Substantial growth in bilateral trade between India and Myanmar in the last 10 years.

In 2012 total trade was Rs 1870.2 million US dollars of which exports to Myanmar constituted 545.4 million and imports 1324.8 million.

Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT)states that informal trade through Moreh, Champhai and Lungwa is to the tune of Rs 2000 crores annually

This needs better management of the borders

The way forward:

Currently 3 flts between Yangon and Kolkata none between Guwahati and Yangon or Naypyitaw (the new capital)

Developing trade and tourism between NE & Myanmar also means better air connectivity for greater movement of people. This nuanced development is imperative and non-negotiable

After years of military rule, health and education have suffered most in Myanmar. NE could provide that much needed fillip in these 2 sectors. At the moment there is a significant student population from Myanmar in NE states particularly Meghalaya