presentation at fsf in apr'10
TRANSCRIPT
Situation normal, everything must
change
Simon
Wardley
DANGER!Will Robinson
DANGER!
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
No. Slides
Pain
No. Slides
Pain
OK
10 slides
No. Slides
Pain
OK
Severerisk of harm
182 slides
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
Cloud Computing?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like computers on the
internet, innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online
services.
It’s like computers on the
internet, innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
£10,000 please.
Image from Oliver Twist
67 definitions
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
No. Slides
Pain
OK
Severerisk of harm
182 slides
1. On-demand self-service Internet
infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all
managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into
multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and
Cloud Applications.(see "Cloud Pyramid")
No definition
Commoditisation
Commoditisation
What is Cloud
Commoditisation
What is Cloud
Cloud Myths
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Commodity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Utility Services
Innovation of early lists, 1980.
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Custom built, DB MarketingMid 80s
Certainty
Ubi
quity
ProductEarly 90s
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Utility Services of Salesforce
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Utility Services
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation of Z3, 1941
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Custom Built LEO, 1946
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Products IBM 650, 1954
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Commodity Hardware
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Utility services of Amazon EC2
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity Utility Services
of the National Grid
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Commod
itisati
on
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Demand
Certainty
Ubi
quity
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Demand
Improvement
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Demand
ImprovementCo
mmoditis
ation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Utility Service
Certainty
Ubi
quity Early Utility
Westinghouse,1890s
Product Hippolyte Pixii,
1830s
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Speed (componentisation)
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
newnew
newnew
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Erodin
g Valu
e
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Erodin
g Valu
e
EnablesInnovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Electricity
Hardware
Internet
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Electricity
Hardware
Internet
Search
EnablesInnovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Rate of evolution of a system is
dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems.
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Application
Database Framework Messaging
Application
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
CPU
Application
Orders of Magnitude
AcceleratesInnovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
InnovationFlemming Valve, 1904
Certainty
Ubi
quity
ProductsIntel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Busicom
MCS-4
Busicom
MCS-4
Busicom
Co-Evolution
> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
1
Greater consumption
$700
0.0002c
Reduced cost per unit
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Speed (componentisation)
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Reduced cost per unit
Greater consumption
Accelerated Innovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Disruptive
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Confusion
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Confusion
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Trust
Confusion
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Trust
Security
Confusion
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Trust
Security
Confusion
Transparency
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Outsourcing
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Suitability
Outsourcing
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Competition
Suitability
Outsourcing
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Competition
Lock-in
Suitability
Outsourcing
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Competition
Lock-in
Second Source
Suitability
Outsourcing
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Competition
Lock-in
Second Source
Control
Suitability
Outsourcing
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Trust
Confusion
Transparency
Competition
Lock-in
Second Source
Control
Suitability
Outsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Recap
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Utility Services
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Demand
Improvement
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Speed (componentisation)
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Reduced cost per unit
Greater consumption
Accelerated Innovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Disruptive
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Trust
Confusion
Transparency
Competition
Lock-in
Second Source
Control
Suitability
Outsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Commoditisation
What is Cloud
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Widespread(Demand)
Feature Complete(Improvement)
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation Infrastructure
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation Infrastructure
Platform
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aService
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Speed (componentisation)
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Reduced cost per unit
Greater consumption
Accelerated Innovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
New server
64 node cluster
Previous Time(mins)
72,000
130,000
New server
64 node cluster
Previous Time(mins)
Cloud Time(mins)
72,000
130,000
7
15
Disruptive
Certainty
Ubi
quity
... as aProduct
Transition
Governance
Trust
Confusion
Transparency
Competition
Lock-in
Second Source
Control
Suitability
Outsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
... as aService
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Commoditisation
What is Cloud
Cloud Myths
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
You have choice!
Market
Certainty
Ubi
quity
You
Market
Competitive Gap
Certainty
Ubi
quity
You
Market
Speed to market
Economies of scale
Focus on core
Pay per use
Reduced cost
Accelerated innovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
You
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
Pres
sure
Certainty
Ubi
quity Market
You
“Red Queen Hypothesis”
The need to constantly evolve in order to stand
still relative to a surrounding ecosystem
Prof. Van Valen
vsBenefits Risks
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
It’s Green!
It’ll reduce your IT spend.
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Pay per use (utility)
Reduced cost (per unit)
Certainty
Ubi
quity
efficiency
Accelerated Innovation
Certainty
Ubi
quity
consumption
efficiency
William Stanley Jevons, 1865
“Jevons Paradox”
Technological progress that increases the
efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to
increase the rate of consumption of that
resource.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Standards don’t matter
Who cares about standards?
Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)
Payroll
HR Systems
CRM
ERP
Infrastructure
Finance & Accounting
Sales Automation
Certainty
Ubi
quity Cost of doing
business PayrollHR
Certainty
Ubi
quity Cost of doing
business
Min. Strategic value
PayrollHR
Certainty
Ubi
quity
PayrollHR
Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising
stuff has no strategic value?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Gain competitive advantage by customising your
payroll system
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Way back when ...
Now
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Standardised Service!
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Marketplace
Standardised Service!
Concept
Suitability
Technology
Attitude
“The challenge of the Computer Utility” Douglas Parkhill
1966
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
All IT is the same!
SLAs are what count!
Standards don’t matter
It’s about technology
Only public cloud is cloud computing!
Cloud is an Innovation
Public
Private
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Hybrid
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Transition
Governance
Trust
Security
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Easy Switching
(low exit)
Alternatives (functioning
market)
Access(Open API / Data formats)
Interop.(running code,
reference model)
Proprietary Open Source
Public cloud
Amazon EC2
Ubuntu Server Edition
Physical (bare bones)
Cloud Controller
Node Controller
KVM Hyp.Web UI
VMEucalyptus
Private cloud
ubuntu.com/cloud
EC2 API
Recap
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
... as aService
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Disruptive
Certainty
Ubi
quity
... as aProduct
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Speed (componentisation)
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
All IT is the same! SLAs are
what count!
Standards don’t matter
It’s about technology
Only public cloud is cloud computing!
Cloud is an Innovation
You have choice
It’s green and will save you money
vsBenefits Risks
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Utility Services
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Proprietary Open Source
Situation normal, everything must
change
