presentation by moshe braner, 2014. parts based on: forgotten fundamentals of the energy crisis...
TRANSCRIPT
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Presentation by Moshe Braner, 2014. Parts based on:
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis (1978)by Albert A. Bartlett, University of Colorado at Boulder
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored,” - Aldous Huxley
Energy and Growth in a Finite World
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What is “Energy”?
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In physics: the ability to do physical “work”.
And what is “work”? Force along a distance.
What is “Energy”?
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Types of Energy
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mass in motion
Types of Energy
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mass in motionelevated mass
Types of Energy
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mass in motionelevated massheat
Types of Energy
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mass in motionelevated massheatfuel
Types of Energy
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mass in motionelevated massheatfuelchemical
Types of Energy
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mass in motionelevated massheatfuelchemicalfood
Types of Energy
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mass in motionelevated massheatfuelchemicalfoodelectricity
Types of Energy
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Total amount of work done = energy
Energy: quantity vs. rate
Amount of work done per unit time = power
Energy, not power, has a set price
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Units of Energy
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Joule (basic metric unit of energy)KWH (kilowatt-hour)BTUCalorie (1 kilocal = 4187 J)Cord of wood (20 billion J)Gallon of gasoline (130 million J)Barrel of oil (42 gallons = 6 billion J)
Units of Energy
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Units of Power
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Watts = Joules per secondKilowatt = 1000 watts = “1 Household”Horsepower = 746 wattsBTUs per hourCalories per dayBarrels of oil per day
Units of Power
There ain’t no such thing as “watts per hour”
Watts = volts X amps
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Energy Conversion
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Energy Conversion
Elevation to speedWood to heatElectricity to lightCalories into metabolismSunlight into electricity
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Energy Conversion
- subject to the laws of thermodynamics
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First law of thermodynamics
Energy cannot be created nor destroyed- only converted from one form to another
“you can’t win”
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Second law of thermodynamics
Energy conversions are never 100% efficient- some energy is lost as heat
“you can’t break even”
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Second law of thermodynamicsEnergy conversions are never 100% efficient
- therefore they have a price, in energy and in money
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Energy Return On Energy Invested
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Energy Surplus is the basis of civilization
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Video: TV debate on “growth”
What is “Growth”?
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Exponential Growth: when the rate of increase is proportional to the amount already present
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Exponential Growth: when the rate of increase is proportional to the amount already present
Things that behave this way:• biological populations• industrial capital• economic activity
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Exponential Growth: when the rate of increase is proportional to the amount already present
Mathematical description:
Xt = X0 ert
where Xt is quantity at time t, r is the “rate of
growth”, and e is a very special number (2.718...)
Slope dX/dt = rX - proportional to X
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Exponential Growth: It takes a fixed length of time to grow by a fixed percentage, e.g., one year to grow by P percent
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Exponential Growth: It takes a fixed length of time to grow by a fixed percentage, e.g., one year to grow by P percent
Corollary: It takes a (different) fixed length of time to grow by any fixed percentage, e.g., to double the quantity
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Exponential growth: It takes a (different) fixed length of time to grow by any fixed percentage, e.g., to double the quantity
Mathematical rule of thumb: doubling time = 70 / rate of growth (as %) T2 = 70 / P
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Mathematical rule of thumb: doubling time = 70 / rate of growth (as %)
Examples:
3.5%/year growth rate = doubling every 20 years
7%/year growth rate = doubling every 10 years
10%/year growth rate = doubling every 7 years
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Video: yeast1 - doublings
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Exponential Growth in a finite environment: fictional example: bacteria doubling every hour
The last hours in the bottle:
6 pm 1/64 full (1.5%) 63/64 empty
7 pm 1/32 full (3%) 31/32 empty
8 pm 1/16 full (6%) 15/16 empty
9 pm 1/8 full (12%) 7/8 empty
10 pm 1/4 full (25%) 3/4 empty
11 pm 1/2 full (50%) 1/2 empty
12 midnight 100% full 0% empty
- Until shortly before reaching limits, growth seems benign.
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350 years of exponential growth at 2.9% per year
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World energy use, if it could continue to grow exponentially at only 2.3% per year:
“Sustainable growth” is an oxymoron
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Temperature of Earth’s surface, if planetary energy use continued to grow exponentially at only 2.3% per year:
“Sustainable growth” is an oxymoron
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Exponential Growth in a finite environment: same example: bacteria doubling every hour
The effect of discovering three more bottles:
10 pm bottle #1 is one-quarter full
11 pm bottle #1 is one-half full
12 midnight bottle #1 is full
1 am bottles #1 and #2 are both full
2 am bottles #1, #2, #3 and #4 are all full
- Size of resource has little effect in the face of growth.
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Video from ChrisMartenson.com Crash Course: Compound Growth
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Video: yeast2 – pond lilies
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Length Of Life Of a Finite Resource When The Rate Of Consumption Is Growing Exponentially
With even a moderate rate of growth, the resource is depleted much faster than with no growth
Growth rate Lifetime of Resource no growth * 10 30 100 300 1000 3000 1% 9.5 26 69 139 240 343 2% 9.1 24 55 97 152 206 3% 8.7 21 46 77 115 150 4% 8.4 20 40 64 93 120 5% 8.1 18 36 56 79 100 6% 7.8 17 32 49 69 87 7% 7.6 16 30 44 61 77 10% 6.9 14 24 34 46 57 * “at current rate of consumption”
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“The world has not prepared for the future. During the 1950s, people used twice as much oil as during the 1940s. During the 1960s, we used twice as much as during the 1950s. And in each of those decades, more oil was consumed than in all of mankind's previous history.
World consumption of oil is still going up. If it were possible to keep it rising during the 1970s and 1980s by 5 percent a year as it has in the past, we could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade.”
- Jimmy Carter, 1977
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1990-2000
1970-1980
1980-1990
1960-1970
1950-1960
ALLUNTIL1950
THIS AMOUNT OF OIL WOULD HAVE BEEN NEEDED IN ORDER TO HAVE OIL CONSUMPTION CONTINUE TO GROW AT A RATE OF 7% PER YEAR FOR THE DECADE 2000-2010
A GROWTH RATE OF 7% PER YEAR MEANS A DOUBLING TIME OF ONE DECADE
DURING EACH DOUBLING, AS MUCH OF THE RESOURCE IS USED AS IN ALL PRECEDING TIMES COMBINED
BEFORE 1973, WORLD USE OF OIL WAS GROWING AT A RATE OF 7% PER YEAR
THIS DID NOT ACTUALLY HAPPEN – GROWTH IN OIL USE SLOWED DOWN SINCE 1973
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What happens when the limits to growth are reached?
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time
Rate
of
consumption
Exponential growth, then an abrupt stop
More typical:
a gradual leveling off, then a drawn out decline
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From Joel Cohen's paper in Sep. 2005 Scientific American:
“Although the rate of population growth has fallen since the 1970's, the logic of compounding means that current levels of global population growth are still greater than any experienced prior to World War II. ... In effect, the poor countries will have to build the equivalent of a city of more than one million people each week for the next 45 years.”
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What’s wrong with this statement?
“… global environmental constraints are already starting to impose themselves. ... Overall global economic growth is compatible with sustainable management of the ecosystems on which all humans depend--indeed, wealth can be good for the environment--but only if public policy and technologies encourage sound practices and the necessary investments are made in environmental sustainability.”
- Jeffery Sachs in Sep. 2005 Scientific American
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Video: yeast3 – limits
“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.”
- Kenneth Boulding, economist
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“To call a practice or system unsustainable is not just to lodge an objection based on aesthetics, say, or fairness or some ideal of environmental rectitude.
What it means is that the practice or process can’t go on indefinitely because it is destroying the very conditions on which it depends.”
- Michael Pollan
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Conclusions:
• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.
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Conclusions:
• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.
• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.
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Conclusions:
• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.
• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.
• It is critically urgent to abandon our religious belief in the disastrous dogma that "growth is good”.
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Conclusions:
• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.
• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.
• It is critically urgent to abandon our religious belief in the disastrous dogma that "growth is good”.
• We must conserve in the use and consumption of everything. We must outlaw planned obsolescence.
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Conclusions:
• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.
• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.
• It is critically urgent to abandon our religious belief in the disastrous dogma that "growth is good”.
• We must conserve in the use and consumption of everything. We must outlaw planned obsolescence.
• We must recognize that, as important as it is to conserve, large savings from conservation will be quickly wiped out by even modest rates of growth.
- Albert Bartlett
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Growth, economics,and current energy affairs
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Conventional economics
is based on growth
– Our money system is based on debt
– Interest can be paid only via growth
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Conventional economics
based on growth
– Our money system is based on debt
– Interest can be paid only via growth
– Within this system, “no growth” means a monetary collapse
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Economy is dependent on energy
– Economic activity requires energy & materials
– Supposedly “energy efficient” US economy relies on manufacturing in China
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Conventional economics based on growth
– A bigger economy requiresmore natural resources
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Conventional economics based on growth
– A bigger economy requiresmore natural resources
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Conventional economics based on growth
– A bigger economy requiresmore natural resources
– Growth cannot continue for long on a finite planet
The “growth economy” is a pyramid scheme
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- US Energy Information Administration 1/07
How much of the energy pie can renewable energy replace?
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“Fracking” for natural gas
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Shale gas “fracking” won’t save us
– Not new technology!
– Very expensive
– Only worth doing if price is high but price is now low
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Shale gas “fracking” won’t save us
– Natural gas not profitable
– Gas “flared” if no pipeline
– Associated oil is profitable
– Limited use for “liquids”
drilling migrated to “wet” sites
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“Fracking” (gas or oil) won’t save us
– Well output declines fast
– 50% drop in one year
– 90% drop in three years
– Best sites used first
Need to drill ever faster ($$$) What if we run out of drill sites?
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Shale gas “fracking” is a finance bubble
– Drilling done to raise stock price– Drilling for dry gas now declining
– Gas sold at loss to repay debts
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Shale gas “fracking” bubble popping
– Drilling done to raise stock price– Drilling for dry gas now declining
– Gas sold at loss to repay debts
– Companies selling assets
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US oil production minor in global picture
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Drill, baby, drill!
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Video: “pale blue dot”
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Possible Discussion Points:
• Why are we addicted to growth?
• How can we get off the growth treadmill?
• What would a no-growth society look like?
“The promotion of growth is simply a sophisticated way to steal from our children.”
- David Brower