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    brick shaping

    raw materials

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    Moores Law in MicroprocessorsTransistors on lead microprocessors double every 2 years

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    64

    256

    1,000

    4,000

    16,000

    64,000

    256,000

    1,000,000

    4,000,000

    16,000,000

    64,000,000

    10

    100

    1000

    10000

    100000

    1000000

    10000000

    100000000

    1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

    Year

    Kb

    itcapacity/chip

    Evolution in DRAM Chip Capacity

    1.6-2.4 m

    1.0-1.2 m

    0.7-0.8 m

    0.5-0.6 m

    0.35-0.4 m

    0.18-0.25 m

    0.13 m

    0.1 m

    0.07 m

    human memoryhuman DNA

    encyclopedia2 hrs CD audio

    30 sec HDTV

    book

    page

    4X growth every 3 years!

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    Die Size Growth

    4004

    8008

    80808085

    8086286

    386486Pentium proc

    P6

    1

    10

    100

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Year

    Dies

    ize

    (mm

    )

    ~7% growth per year

    ~2X growth in 10 years

    Die size grows by 14% to satisfy Moores Law

    Courtesy, Intel

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    Clock Frequency

    Lead microprocessors frequency doubles every 2 years

    P6Pentium proc486

    38628680868085

    8080

    80084004

    0.1

    1

    10

    100

    1000

    10000

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Year

    Frequency

    (M

    hz

    )

    2X every 2 years

    Courtesy, Intel

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    Power Dissipation

    P6Pentium proc

    486

    3862868086

    80858080

    80084004

    0.1

    1

    10

    100

    1971 1974 1978 1985 1992 2000Year

    Power(W

    atts

    )

    Lead Microprocessors power continues to increase

    Courtesy, Intel

    Power delivery and dissipation will be prohibitive

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    Power Density

    40048008

    80808085

    8086

    286386

    486Pentium proc

    P6

    1

    10

    100

    1000

    10000

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Year

    Power

    Dens

    ity

    (W/cm

    2)

    Hot Plate

    Nuclear

    Reactor

    RocketNozzle

    Power density too high to keep junctions at low temp

    Courtesy, Intel

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    Design Productivity Trends

    2003

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2005

    2007

    2009

    Logic Tr./ChipTr./Staff Month.

    xxx

    xxx

    x

    21%/Yr. compoundProductivity growth rate

    x

    58%/Yr. compoundedComplexity growth rate

    10,000

    1,000

    100

    10

    1

    0.1

    0.01

    0.001

    Log

    icTran

    sistorper

    Chip(M

    )

    0.01

    0.1

    1

    10

    100

    1,000

    10,000

    100,000

    Pro

    duc

    tiv

    ity

    (K)Tra

    ns./

    Staff-

    Mo.

    Comp

    lex

    ity

    Courtesy, ITRS Roadmap

    Complexity outpaces design productivity

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    How far can light travel in 1 clocksignal?

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    Major Design Challenges Microscopic issues

    ultra-high speeds

    power dissipation andsupply rail drop

    growing importance ofinterconnect

    noise, crosstalk

    reliability, manufacturability

    clock distribution

    Macroscopic issues

    time-to-market

    design complexity(millions of gates)

    high levels of abstractions

    reuse and IP, portability

    systems on a chip (SoC)

    tool interoperability

    Year Tech. Complexity Frequency 3 Yr. Design

    Staff Size

    Staff Costs

    1997 0.35 13 M Tr. 400 MHz 210 $90 M

    1998 0.25 20 M Tr. 500 MHz 270 $120 M

    1999 0.18 32 M Tr. 600 MHz 360 $160 M

    2002 0.13 130 M Tr. 800 MHz 800 $360 M