presentation of the draft inception report
TRANSCRIPT
Ex-post evaluation of the implementation of Part IV of the Association Agreement (“Trade Pillar”) between the EU and its Member States and Central America (Costa Rica, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama)
(TRADE 2020/D2/D05)
Presentation of the
draft Inception Report
Civil Society Dialogue meeting
7 May 2021
Consortium led by
Contents of this presentation
Introduction: the scope and purpose of the evaluation and its timeline
Overview of tasks (according to the Terms of Reference for the project)
Overview of the proposed methodology
Website for the project - created and put online
Stakeholder consultations programme
Proposal for case study selection
Study work plan
Annex: draft intervention hypothesis, overview of the existing research studies and description of the Agreement
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Evaluation objectives and scope
Purpose of the evaluation: Analyse impact of implementation of the Agreement on sustainable development in its economic, social, environmental and human rights dimensions. Evaluate the performance of the institutional setup.
Scope:
Criteria: effectiveness, impact, efficiency, relevance, coherence
Geographically: impact in six Central American countries (Costa Rica, El Salvador Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), EU (some 3rd country/global effects)
Time:
- Since start of application in 2013 until 2019/2020;
- Comparison period (for before/after comparison): 5 years prior to start of application
Groups affected: whole economy, by sector, gender, workers, consumers, vulnerable population groups
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Overview of tasks- Based on the Terms of Reference
Consortium led by
Overview of tasks (as per Terms of Reference)
5
Overview of the proposed methodology
Consortium led by
Economic Analysis
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A. Evolution of trade in goods, trade in services and FDI
Trade in goods, trade in services, FDI
Special focus: bananas
B. Overall economic impacts: based on the Commission CGE modelling results
C. Review of the impact of the Trade Pillar on:
Institutional structures, export-import procedures, SPS measures, Government procurement, ‘other areas’
SMEs
Government budgets
D. Impact on regional integration
Regional economic integration between CA partners
E. Impact on EU outermost regions (OR) and developing countries
Analysis based on OR exports, and LDC exports
Social analysis
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A. Trade and Sustainable Development chapter
Effects of TSD chapter’s implementation, incl. commitments of the Parties and cooperation
Impacts resulting from the operation of the institutional structures under the TSD chapter
B. Quantitative analysis: based on the Commission’s CGE modelling results
C. Developing baseline and analysis of the impacts of the Trade Pillar on:
Employment, informal economy, consumers, wages, welfare, poverty and inequality
Working conditions, Decent Work Agenda, incl. labour standards, social protection and social dialogue, and enforcement capacities (incl. labour inspection)
Gender equality (women as workers, entrepreneurs, traders and consumers), CSR / RBC
D. In-depth analysis in case studies
(Discussed in detail further in the presentation)
E. Conclusions and policy recommendations
Environmental analysis
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Step 0: Finetune methodology & impact screening and scoping • Output: A revised methodology, context setting documents, selected impact areas
Step 1: Setting the baselines for the impact areas• Output: Environmental baseline reports: governance, the performance and main developments.
Step 2: Quantitative evaluation of impacts• GHG emissions + other quantitative analysis (depending on impact screening results)
• Output: Technical environmental reports (part 1)
Step 3: Qualitative evaluation of impacts (focus depends on impact screening results)• Two case studies
• Output: Technical environmental reports (part 2)
Step 4: Answering the evaluation questions + concluding remarks• Output: Full environmental analysis, including conclusions and policy recommendations
Human Rights analysis
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Step 0: Finetune methodology• Output: A revised methodology
Step 1: Human rights profiles – pre-existing issues of vulnerability and stress• Overview of international human rights obligations, key implementation issues, current situation. Focus: vulnerable groups
• Output: Concise baselines per country
Step 2: Screening and scoping (including first consultations)• Which trade measures? Which specific rights? How? Focus: vulnerable groups
• Define indicators and information sources, refine stakeholder list
• Output: Screening and scoping tables
Step 3: Detailed assessment (qualitative and quantitative, including consultations)• Framework of entitlements/duties related to the selected rights; national legislation/protection mechanisms (legal framework
and implementation practice); effects (economic model, indicators and secondary resources). Focus: vulnerable groups
• Output: Detailed assessment for up to 3 selected rights
Step 4: Case studies (see further in the presentation)
Step 5: Conclusions and policy recommendations• Recommendations re: human rights > how to strengthen positive/flank negative impacts. Focus: vulnerable groups
• Output: Conclusions and recommendations
Website for the evaluation
Consortium led by
Project website has been launched on March 22, 2021
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Stakeholder consultations
Consortium led by
Consultations – Study approach
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Pillar 1: Meetings with EU civil society (CSD meetings)
Pillar 2: Online public consultation (online survey: EUSurvey)
Pillar 3: Targeted consultation activities
Workshops in partner countries (physical/hybrid/virtual); Business survey; Interviews / meetings (personal/virtual/written): Scope: EU + partner countries
Pillar 4: Consultations with EU institutions
Meetings with Commission (ISG, bilateral); Interviews with/presentations to EP, EESC, EU MS, EU Delegations
Pillar 5: Website and electronic communication
Website, Twitter, LinkedIn, E-mail newsletters; Social media strategy
Note: COVID-19 back-up plans (Scenario 0; Scenario 1; Scenario 2)
Consultations – Stakeholders
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Consultations – Newsletters
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Consultations – Key elements for engagement and timing
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Online Public Consultation (OPC) survey – online for 12 weeks from May/Jun until Sept 2021
Business/SME Survey – online for 12 weeks from May/Jun until Sept 2021
Civil Society Dialogue:
Draft Inception Report – 7th of May 2021
Draft Interim Report – Nov/Dec 2021
Draft Final Report – Mar/Apr 2022
Workshops (stakeholders in Central America) – Interim Report phase (end of Nov/early Dec 2021)
Individual submissions – any time during the Consultation period – by end 2021
Consultations – How to reach us?
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Contact form on project website: http://central-america.fta-evaluation.eu/en/
@CaEvaluation
Ex-Post Evaluation EU-Central America FTA
Consultations – Overview and timeline
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Phase / task / deliverable
Inception phase
Kick-off meeting with Commission in Brussels #
Task 8: Undertake consultation activities
Consultation objectives and scope
Identification and mapping of stakeholders in EU and CA countries
- Interviews and meetings (face-to-face, calls, zoom/teams, etc.)
Draft Inception Report (including Tasks 6 and 7 - consultation strategy) 20
Targeted Consultation Tools
- Pillar 1: Civil Society Dialogue meetings (3x in Brussels/digital)
Review meeting: Commission ISG
Inception Report
- Pillar 2: Onlince Public Consultation (OPC)*
- Pillar 3: Targeted consultation activities
- Workshops in Central American countries
- Business survey*
- Interviews and meetings (face-to-face, calls, zoom/teams, etc.)
Draft Interim Technical Report 20
Review meeting: Commission ISG
Interim Technical Report `
- Interviews and meetings (face-to-face, calls, zoom/teams, etc.)
Draft final report 20
Review meeting: Commission ISG
Final Report 20
* The ToR specifies 12 weeks for the survey; we tentatively propose 16 weeks because the time schedule allows it and if the project starts in January the survey would fall in the holiday season in Europe/CA which would not be conducive for responses.
Key
Meeting with the European Commission
Concrete deliverable (e.g. Inception Report)
Stakeholder consultation activities and meetings
Apr MayJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Online Consultation openprep work
ongoing consultations
ongoing consultations
ongoing cons'ns
ongoing consultations
prep work
prep work Business Survey (SMEs)
WS
Selection of case studies
Consortium led by
ToR provide criteria for case study selection
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10 case studies (sector-based or topical)
Conditions/criteria for selection:
Impact of implementation of EU-CA TP on sustainable development;
Complement the economic, social, HR, environmental analyses
Total of 10 case studies:
- One country-specific case study for each CA country (6 case studies);
- Two horizontal case studies for the CA countries together (2 case studies);
- Two case studies for the EU (2 case studies).
Importance as seen by stakeholders
Coverage of different types of impact (economic + non-economic)
Case study methodology
Depends on specific case study
To be described in the selection outcome
Preliminary selection of case studies
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No Case study topic Geographic focus Key impact areas
1 Impacts of the Trade Pillar on EU banana producers EU, incl. OR as well as ACP and LDCs due to preference erosion
Economic and Social
2 Trade in environmental goods and services (opportunities for the EU and partner countries)
EU, CA partner countries Economic and Environmental
3 Impacts of the Trade Pillar on freedom of association in sectors involved in trade with the EU (the choice of sectors will be made further to the initial impact analysis)
CA partner countries, notably Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador
Human rights and Social
4 The effects of the Trade Pillar on sustainable aquaculture in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and El Salvador
Partner countries, notably Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador
Economic, Social, Human rights, and Environmental
5 Opportunities created in services sector, in particular the green energy sector in Costa Rica (the choice of the services sector will be reviewed based on the initial impact analysis)
CA partner countries Economic and Environmental
6 Impacts of the Trade Pillar on child labour and children's rights El Salvador Social and Human rights7 Impacts of the Trade Pillar on the environment (e.g., forests and biodiversity) in
Guatemala, the case of palm oilGuatemala Environmental
8 Impacts of the Trade Pillar on MSMES and sustainable agriculture in the coffee industry (organic coffee) in Honduras
Honduras Economic and Environmental
9 Impacts of the Trade Pillar on women and gender equality, notably in agricultural value chains in sectors exporting to the EU (the sectors may include coffee, ground nuts and banana, however, the final selection of sectors and scope will be made based on data availability and the initial impact analysis)
Nicaragua Social, and Human rights
10 Implementation and effect of the FTZ in port of Colon, including aspects related to direct transportation clause
Panama Economic
Study work plan
Consortium led by
Study work plan – Inception Phase
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Study work plan – Interim Phase
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Study work plan – Final Phase
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Ex-post evaluation of the EU-CA FTA
27
Contact form on project website: http://central-america.fta-evaluation.eu/en/
@CaEvaluation
Ex-Post Evaluation EU-Central America FTA
Annex
Consortium led by
Draft intervention hypothesis
Consortium led by
Objectives
(Part IV, Art. 78)Policy
instrument
Provisions
(Part IV)Short-term outcomes
Medium-term
outcomesLong-term impacts (Art.
1, Art. 2 & Recitals)
Expansion and
diversification of trade,
through reduction or
elimination of tariff & NTB
Facilitating trade in goods
Promoting economic
regional integration
Liberalising trade in
services
Creating environment
favourable to investment
Promoting free and
undistorted competition
Protecting intellectual
property rights effectively
Establishing an effective,
fair and predictable dispute
settlement system
Promoting international
trade and investment, to
contribute to sustainable
development through
collaborative work
Opening government
procurement markets
gradually and reciprocally
Trade in
goods
Establishment,
trade in
services and
electronic
commerce
Current
payments and
capital
movements
Trade and
competition
Intellectual
property
Government
procurement
TSD
Dispute
settlement
Mediation for
NTMs
Transparency
& institutions
Regional
economic
integration
More competitive
companies, incl. SMEs
participate in trade
Better availability and
affordability of diverse
goods and services
Increased diversification of
trade flows
Improved, competitive
business environment
Further developed
regulatory framework
related to trade
Further developed policy,
legal and institutional TSD
framework
Encouraged cooperation
between EU and Central
America related to trade
Strengthened administrative
capacity, including
enforcement, related to trade
Reduced barriers facilitate
increased EU-CA trade and
investment flows
Increased trade and
investment flows between
Central American countries
Pillar IV of
the EU-
Central
America
Association
Agreement
Trade-
related
technical
and
financial
assistance
Strengthened & deepened
regional integration in
Central America
Reinforced good
neighbourly relations in
Central America
Higher economic growth
Gradually improved living
standards
Poverty eradication
More competitive and
diversified economy more
resilient to external shocks
Better integration of both
regions into global
economy
SD is promoted and realised
via a partnership with civil
society and private sector
Sustainable and equitable
development contributing
to attaining SDGs
Improved resilience to natural
disasters, env protection &
biodiversity conservation
Good, transparent
governance and improved
respect for human rights
Expanded and diversified
trade between the Parties,
improved market access
Strengthened and
consolidated trade
relations of the Parties
Job creation in sectors involved
in bilateral and regional trade
and supporting ones
Increased & consolidated
diversification of economy,
technology & innovation
Gradually reduced
structural asymmetries
between the Parties
Regulatory environment in
line with WTO rules and
international standards
Effective implementation &
enforcement of international
labour & env standards
Enhanced bi-regional
cooperation in all areas of
common interest for SD
Maintained and further
enhanced level of good
governance
Association Council,
supervised implement.,
improved relations,
amended Agreement,
accelerated liberalisation
Implementation
activities
Sub-committee on MA for
Goods, accelerated
liberalisation for trade in
goods and tariff reductions
Association Committee, Gov
consultations and dispute
settlement mechanism;
problems prevented and
resolved, Agreement
interpreted and managed
Sub-committee on IP,
promoted technology
transfer & GI protection
WG on Gov Procurement
transparency, market access
TSD promotion (Board)
Association Committee in
Trade configuration
Sub-committee on
Customs, TF and RoO,
addressed customs and
RoO facilitating trade flows
Sub-committee on SPS,
dialogue on SPS,
problems addressed
Sub-committee on TBT,
standards and technical
regulations not limit trade
Review of the existing studies and reports on EU-CA trade
Consortium led by
Main findings
32
Economic impacts (snapshot), main sources: - Ecorys and Corporate Solutions (2009) – Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA):
Expected output increase in CA (up to 10% in vegetables, fruits and nuts), electronic equipment, processed food
and beverages and tobacco; decline in transport equipment;
Expected increased trade flows (notably in vegetables, fruits and nuts) and shifts in regional specialisation in CA;
slightly increased EU exports in transport equipment.
- Centre for Economic Policy Research - CEPR (2012):
Expected increase of exports in agricultural products from CA (by 55%); increase in exports of manufactured
products (in both directions) by 41%.
- European Commission annual reports on FTA implementation (2014-2019):
The EU exports to CA increased by 7.2% in 2014 and the EU imports from CA were reduced by 2.7%.
In 2015, EU exports increased by 22% (Costa Rica being the main destination) and imports fell by 16.8%.
In 2016, trade in services represented almost 40% of the total value of trade flows between the EU and CA.
Use of some TRQs in 2017 (e.g., sugar and rum from CA) achieved 100% and for powder milk from the EU 91%.
In 2018, agri-products represented 2/3 of CA exports to the EU, bananas being the main exported commodity.
EU exports increased by 11% in 2018.
EU exports in goods increased in 2019 by 8.8% and imports by 5.2%.
Main findings (continuation)
33
Social and human rights impacts, main sources (snapshot): - Ecorys and Corporate Solutions (2009) – Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA):
Expected wage increase: up to 3.2% for unskilled workers in CA and 2.8% for skilled ones (except Panama);
Expected shift of workers between sectors, notably in CA correlated with wage increase (except Panama);
Expected employment growth in electronic equipment, vegetables, fruits and nuts, and textiles in CA;
Expected mixed effects regarding price levels.
- Centre for Economic Policy Research - CEPR (2012):
Expected wage increase in all CA countries, between 0.54% and 4.33% (unskilled workers) or 4.29% (skilled);
Expected move of workers between sectors towards agriculture (more for unskilled ones);
Expected decrease in poverty rates (by up to 1.1 percentage point in Honduras)
- Trade Pillar in the EU-Central America AA European Implementation Assessment (EPRS 2018):
Some positive developments, however, overall limited impact of implementation of the TSD Chapter.
Issues remain with the hight level of informality that affects the rights of workers engaged in work in informal
sectors, in particular indigenous peoples. Child labour is prevalent in all six countries and issues with respect
to labour rights persist, notably with respect to freedom of association, social dialogue, elimination of forced
labour and unpaid overtime. Women have higher rates of unemployment and lower salaries.
Main findings (continuation)
34
Environmental impacts (snapshot):
Main sources: - Ecorys and Corporate Solutions (2009) – Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA):
Expected small increase in CO2, partly due to increased maritime/road transport;
Expected land use change, especially in Costa Rica and Panama;
Expected indirect biodiversity loss and deforestation;
Expected implementation of effective EU-Central America cooperation and policies;
Expected increase in green production (renewable energies and other clean technologies).
- Several other studies:
Potential negative effect on local biodiversity due to expansion of monocultures for food products and
agrofuels (Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, 2010; FAO, 2013; Jirón et al., 2015; OXFAM, 2016; Zabalo et al.,
2019);
Improved environmental sustainability of the coffee sector in CA (FAO, 2020);
Shrimp production in the Gulf of Fonseca and its environmental impact (Montserrat, et al., 2011; Corrales,
et al., 2015).
Concise description of the Agreement
Consortium led by
Structure of the Agreement and institutions
36
Structure of the Agreement
Title I: general principles, provisions and definitions
Title II: trade in goods
Title III: trade in services, establishment & e-commerce
Title IV: current payments and movement of capital
Title V: government procurement
Title VI: intellectual property
Title VII: trade and competition
Title VIII: trade and sustainable development
Title IX: regional economic integration
Title X: dispute settlement
Title XI: mediation mechanism for non-tariff measures
Title XII: transparency and administrative procedures
Title XIII: tasks of the institutional bodies in matters related to trade
Title XIV: general exceptions
Institutions
Association Council
Association Committee
Sub-committee on Market Access for Goods (Article 91)
Sub-committee on Customs, Trade Facilitation and Rules of Origin (Article 123)
Sub-committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) (Article 139)
Sub-committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Matters (Article 156)
Sub-committee on Intellectual Property (Article 274)
Board on Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) (Article 294)
Working Group on Government Procurement