PUBLIC MANAGEMENT PRESENTATION

DECISION MAKING MODULES AND

TECHNIQUES

Presented by : Group 6Unathi, Rethabile, Sindi, Sue and Sihle

Background of Decision making Models and Techniques

Critical discussion on Various Decision making modules with Examples

Discussion on Quantitative Tools and Techniques in Decision making.

Considering Environmental Factors in Decision making

Questions and Answers

PRESENTATION OUTLINE:

WHAT DO YOU SEE…

WHAT IS YOUR DECISION

DECISION MAKING

DEFINING DECISION MAKING:Decision making is universally defined as

choosing between alternatives.

OR…

DECISION MAKING

• “The process of examining your possibilities options, comparing them, and choosing a course of action”…

• Examples would be: A Holiday Destination/ New Shoes/ New House/ New Car/ New Bill/Law to be passed.. etc..

Factors in Effective Decision Making

g Perception.g Priority. g Acceptability.g Risk. g Resources.

g Goals.g Values/

Morals. g Demands.g Style. g Judgmentg Vision/

Mission

Six c‘s of Decision Making Construct.

Compile. Collect. Compare. Consider. Commit.

Did you Know: It is a criminal offense to drive

with Sandals in Spain

The Decision-Making Process

–A set of steps that include identifying a problem, selecting an alternative, and evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.

1. Identifying a problem/ (Opportunity)- “My Sales reps need new Computers”

2. Identifying decision criteria- Memory and Storage, Display quality, Better life, Warranty, Carrying Weight

Contd…

4. Developing alternatives-Toshiba, SonyVaio, Dell, Lenovo,HP, etc

5. Analyzing alternatives- Toshiba, Sony Vaio, Dell, Lenovo, HP,

6. Selecting the best alternative

7. Implementing the alternative- e.g Toshiba

8. Evaluating decision effectiveness- How well does the Toshiba work under required capacities.

DECISION MAKING MODELS

• There are several models of decision-making:

• The Rational/Classical model

• The Social Model

Cont…• Simon’s bounded rationality

model/Administrative Man Model

• Retrospective decision model (implicit favourite model):

Quantitative Techniques and Tools

• In a world of decision making, very few decisions are ever made without a specific method utilised. We would look at one of the many called Quantitative Techniques in decision making. Knowledge of quantitative methods and their techniques is an indispensable aid in the hands of a decision maker.

Its about…Techniques

• These are the quantitative techniques that we will look at:

Regression and Correlation AnalysisProbability TheoryDecision MakingLinear Programming

Cont…

Integer ProgrammingNetwork AnalysisQueuing TheorySimulationLearning Curves

• We will look at these briefly:

Cont…Quantitative Techniques Description

Regression and Correlation A Forecasting method to which a model is formulated by means of statistical process

Probability Theory Due to information that is not 100% correct, the probability theory and statistics are aids within quantitative techniques to which historical accounting and data can be processed and served in such a manner as to serve as a forecasting method. Study of obesity in children from the age of 5.

Linear Programming Mathematical technique to determine the optimal utilization of limited resources. Linear Programming can be utilised to assist in decision making, Following these procedures:= Determine the objectives= Identify constraints and formulate these in the form of a linear equation and = decide on a suitable method going forward

Cont..Linear Programming Mathematical technique to determine the optimal

utilization of limited resources. Linear Programming can be utilised to assist in decision making, Following these procedures:= Determine the objectives= Identify constraints and formulate these in the form of a linear equation and = decide on a suitable method going forward

Integer Programming A mathematical programming that yields integer solutions of the linear programming problems where certain decision variables need to have integer values in the same optimal solution within the technique of integer programming.

Network Analysis This is a quantitative method which can be used for the analysis of a large variety of decision making problems and the selection of optimal alternatives. Although used in the planning of projects, it can also be applied to decision making.

Cont..Queuing Theory This is enabled to achieve a healthy balance so that the

waiting period is not too long and service costs are not too high. It also evaluates the effectiveness of a particular queuing structure.

Simulation Every day phenomenon applied in various fields.it is easy to use and can be applied in cases where it’s impossible to solve mathematically. Experiments with every day decisions. E.g New Model cars, prototypes.

Learning Curve Makes forecasts thus enhancing the quality of planning and decisions. Quantitive technique used for calculating perceptible and predictable reduction in the time required to carry out the same task repetitively.

Decisions.. Decisions… Decisions

Environmental Factors

• An identifiable element in the physical, cultural, demographic, economic, political, regulatory, or technological environment that affects the survival, operations, and growth of an organization.

Did you know: It is Illegal to chew

gum in Singapore unless its

medicinal..

These are …Environmental issues are the external factors that affect an organisation. The types of external factors that can have an effect on decision making include: • The market in which the organisation operates• The economy• Government legislation• Customers' reaction to the organisation's

products and services

Cont…

Environmental Factors

Affecting Decision making

Personal Factors

Cultural factors

Social FactorInformation

Psychological factors

Cont…– Personal Demographics: age, gender, stages in life cycle, education,

occupation, economic position, etc.– Personal psychographics: includes lifestyle, attitudes, self-concept,

concern about status, value systems, beliefs etc.– Culture: combined resulted of factors like religion, traditions, taboos,

language, education, upbringing, established pattern of social behaviour, values (core & secondary)etc.

– Sub culture: caste– Social class: it is determined by the education level, wealth,

occupation, profession & designation, location of residence, values, and behaviour of its members

To consider…– Intimate groups: e.g. family, friends, peer groups, close colleagues &

close-knit organisations.• Face-to-face & frequent interactions are characteristic feature of

the group.– Secondary groups(including Opinion leaders): based on occupation,

profession place of residence, etc., of the members.• O.L has the high credibility & influence• - Information, should be authentic, reliable, adequate and must

be available at time. So enough time must be there to analyse the problem.

• It reduces the uncertainty.• Too much information or information over-load creates confusion & delay

in decision making.

Thank you

• “Doing what's right isn't hard -- Knowing what's right is.”

Lyndon B. Johnson.

Thank You.