PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTSKHARIF PROSPECTS

NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE FOR KHARIF CAMPAIGN 2010

Gurbachan SinghGurbachan SinghAgriculture Commissioner Agriculture Commissioner

Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi Email : ag.comm@nic.inEmail : ag.comm@nic.in

Rabi Review Rabi Review Kharif Prospects Kharif Prospects Second Green Revolution : Second Green Revolution :

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward

4.17 m ha less coverage in rice 4.17 m ha less coverage in rice More area under sorghum and maize More area under sorghum and maize 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds Kharif rice production less by 12.04 m t Kharif rice production less by 12.04 m t 0.48 m t less pulses 0.48 m t less pulses More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40 More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40

m ha last yearm ha last year Oilseeds production 16.19 m t against 17.81 m t in 2008-Oilseeds production 16.19 m t against 17.81 m t in 2008-

0909

Overall Kharif foodgrain production less Overall Kharif foodgrain production less by 18.03 m t compared to 2008-09by 18.03 m t compared to 2008-09

Kharif 2009 at a Glance : Abnormal Kharif 2009 at a Glance : Abnormal Southwest MonsoonSouthwest Monsoon

Strategy worked out to compensate kharif Strategy worked out to compensate kharif loss in Rabiloss in Rabi

Late rains (end of kharif season): Rabi Late rains (end of kharif season): Rabi prospects brightened with early sowing of prospects brightened with early sowing of oilseeds, pulses and rainfed wheat oilseeds, pulses and rainfed wheat

102.3% area coverage compared to normal 102.3% area coverage compared to normal area under Rabiarea under Rabi

117.3% area under pulses as compared to 117.3% area under pulses as compared to normalnormal

Less coverage under oilseeds mainly due to Less coverage under oilseeds mainly due to less coverage of mustard in Rajasthanless coverage of mustard in Rajasthan

Rabi Scenario 2009-10Rabi Scenario 2009-10

Overall about 2.2 lakh ha more coverage compared to Overall about 2.2 lakh ha more coverage compared to last year last year

Good timely rains in M.P., U.P. and some other Good timely rains in M.P., U.P. and some other States : M.P. and U.P. may harvest record wheat States : M.P. and U.P. may harvest record wheat production.production.

No major pest menace, bright sunshine and continued No major pest menace, bright sunshine and continued prolonged moderate winter temperatures will prolonged moderate winter temperatures will contribute for enhanced productivity. contribute for enhanced productivity.

No significant frost damage on winter crops in north-No significant frost damage on winter crops in north-west India west India

Record wheat production is expected Record wheat production is expected during 2009-10during 2009-10

Rabi Area Coverage as on 12.03.2010Rabi Area Coverage as on 12.03.2010CropCrop Normal Normal

Area Area This year This year Last Last

Year Year + + over over last yearlast year

WheatWheat 270.98270.98 278.16278.16 275.89275.89 +2.27+2.27RiceRice 39.8039.80 40.2940.29 44.2244.22 -3.93-3.93JowarJowar 47.5247.52 45.6945.69 49.4249.42 -3.73-3.73MaizeMaize 8.708.70 11.6111.61 11.7411.74 -0.13-0.13BarleyBarley 6.856.85 7.607.60 7.177.17 +0.43+0.43Total Coarse Total Coarse

CerealsCereals62.5362.53 65.2765.27 68.7268.72 -3.45-3.45

PulsesPulses 119.47119.47 144.35144.35 137.07137.07 +7.28+7.28Total foodgrains Total foodgrains coverage coverage

492.72492.72 528.07528.07 525.90525.90 +2.17+2.17

(in Lakh ha)

Second Advance Estimates of Production of Second Advance Estimates of Production of FoodgrainsFoodgrains

CropCrop SeasonSeason 2008-092008-09 2009-102009-10

22ndnd Adv. Adv. Estimates Estimates

Final Final Estimates Estimates

Target Target 22ndnd Adv. Adv. EstimatesEstimates

Rice Rice KharifKharif 85.5085.50 84.9084.90 86.0086.00 72.9072.90

Rabi Rabi 13.4013.40 14.3014.30 14.5014.50 14.7014.70

Total Total 98.9098.90 99.2099.20 100.50100.50 87.6087.60

Wheat Wheat 77.8077.80 80.7080.70 79.0079.00 80.3080.30

C.CerealsC.Cereals KharifKharif 27.7027.70 28.5028.50 32.7032.70 22.8022.80

Rabi Rabi 9.309.30 11.5011.50 10.4010.40 11.5011.50

Total Total 37.0037.00 40.0040.00 43.1043.10 34.3034.30

CerealsCereals KharifKharif 113.10113.10 113.50113.50 118.70118.70 95.6095.60

Rabi Rabi 100.50100.50 106.40106.40 104.00104.00 106.50106.50

Total Total 213.60213.60 219.90219.90 222.60222.60 202.10202.10

Total PulsesTotal Pulses KharifKharif 4.804.80 4.704.70 6.506.50 4.204.20

Rabi Rabi 9.409.40 9.909.90 10.0010.00 10.5010.50

Total Total 14.2014.20 14.6014.60 16.5016.50 14.7014.70

Total Total foodgrainsfoodgrains

KharifKharif 118.00118.00 118.10118.10 125.20125.20 99.9099.90

Rabi Rabi 109.90109.90 116.30116.30 114.00114.00 117.00117.00

TotalTotal 227.90227.90 234.50234.50 239.10239.10 216.90216.90

(Million tons)

Source : DAC

Second Advance Estimates of Production Second Advance Estimates of Production of other Cropsof other Crops

CropCrop SeasonSeason 2008-092008-09 2009-102009-10

22ndnd Adv. Adv. Estimates Estimates

Final Final Estimates Estimates

Target Target 22ndnd Adv. Adv. EstimatesEstimates

Total Total Nine Nine Oilseeds Oilseeds (lakh t)(lakh t)

KharifKharif 163.23163.23 178.10178.10 194.00194.00 161.91161.91

Rabi Rabi 96.3796.37 99.1199.11 122.00122.00 101.31101.31Total Total 259.60259.60 277.19277.19 316.00316.00 263.22263.22

Cotton* (Total)Cotton* (Total)(lakh Bales each 170 kg)(lakh Bales each 170 kg)

221.67221.67 222.76222.76 260.00260.00 223.18223.18

Jute (lakh Bales each Jute (lakh Bales each 180 kg)180 kg)

102.54102.54 96.3396.33 102.00102.00 97.0097.00

Mesta( lakh Bales each Mesta( lakh Bales each 180 kg)180 kg)

7.847.84 7.307.30 10.0010.00 6.576.57

Jute and Mesta Jute and Mesta 110.38110.38 103.65103.65 112.00112.00 103.57103.57Sugarcane (cane)Sugarcane (cane)(lakh t )(lakh t )

2904.492904.49 2850.292850.29 34003400 2512.682512.68

Source : DAC

Area, Production and Yield of Wheat

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Super Imposing •Rainfall•Temperature •MSP •Seeds•Fertilizers •Others

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Super Imposing •Rainfall•Temperature •MSP •Seeds•Fertilizers •Others

Planning for Kharif 2010 Planning for Kharif 2010 Likely Monsoon ScenariosLikely Monsoon Scenarios

Below normal like 2009Below normal like 2009 NormalNormal Above normal Above normal Pre-monsoon good showers Pre-monsoon good showers Early onset early withdrawalEarly onset early withdrawal Late onset, early / late withdrawalLate onset, early / late withdrawal Timely onset – long break – late revival – extended Timely onset – long break – late revival – extended

phase phase Extended monsoon (End September)Extended monsoon (End September) Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant

protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans)protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans)

In situ / ex situ rain water conservationIn situ / ex situ rain water conservation Availability of seed, fertilizers (P and K needed at Availability of seed, fertilizers (P and K needed at

sowing), plant protection equipments and pesticides sowing), plant protection equipments and pesticides etc. etc.

Promotion of yield enhancing practices Promotion of yield enhancing practices SRI SRI Quality Seeds / Hybrids Quality Seeds / Hybrids Conservation / Precision Agriculture Conservation / Precision Agriculture Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies

Water, Fodder and Feed Availability for Water, Fodder and Feed Availability for AnimalsAnimals

Hints for Productivity Hints for Productivity Enhancement : Advance Enhancement : Advance

PlanningPlanning

All India Position of Requirement And Availability of Certified All India Position of Requirement And Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010Seed During Kharif 2010

CropsCrops Requirement Requirement Quantity in QtlsQuantity in Qtls

Availability Availability Surplus/DeficitSurplus/Deficit

PaddyPaddy 53539065353906 59998455999845 645939645939

RagiRagi 2724127241 3087430874 36333633

KodoKodo 400400 429429 2929

MaizeMaize 755761755761 903034903034 147273147273

BajraBajra 254608254608 295094295094 4048640486

Jowar Jowar 157105157105 174420174420 1731517315

Total CerealsTotal Cereals 65490216549021 74036967403696 854675854675

UrdUrd 133984133984 188109188109 5412554125

CowpeaCowpea 2145821458 2052920529 -929-929

MoongMoong 179612179612 189873189873 1026110261

HorsegramHorsegram 37283728 650650 -3078-3078

Field BeanField Bean 350350 350350 00

Moth Moth 1530015300 57595759 -9541-9541

ArharArhar 200677200677 226985226985 2630826308

RajmashRajmash 11021102 700700 -402-402

Total Pulses Total Pulses 556211556211 632954632954 7674376743

All India Position of Requirement and Availability All India Position of Requirement and Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010

Quantity in QtlsQuantity in Qtls

Requirement Requirement Availability Availability Surplus/DeficitSurplus/Deficit

CastorCastor 4371643716 6437864378 2066220662

GroundnutGroundnut 18259671825967 20064272006427 180460180460

NigerNiger 15171517 10691069 -448-448

Til Til 2050220502 2748827488 69866986

SoybeanSoybean 29625152962515 35806753580675 618160618160

SunflowerSunflower 4500145001 5229552295 72947294

Total OilseedsTotal Oilseeds 48992184899218 57323325732332 833114833114

CottonCotton 192686192686 253320253320 6063460634

Total FibreTotal Fibre 231078231078 288361288361 5728357283

Bajra, Napier Bajra, Napier HybridHybrid

2525 2525 00

GuarGuar 7600376003 8483084830 88278827

Sudan GrassSudan Grass 200200 200200 00

Total Fodder Total Fodder 7622876228 8505585055 88278827

Grand TotalGrand Total 1231175612311756 1414239914142399 18306431830643

Issues Issues Declining levels of soil organic Declining levels of soil organic

mattermatter Widening N: P : K Ratio Widening N: P : K Ratio Micro-nutrient deficiencies Micro-nutrient deficiencies Declining response in terms of Declining response in terms of

grains / kg fertilizer grains / kg fertilizer Heavy metal pollution Heavy metal pollution Low nutrient use efficiency Low nutrient use efficiency

StrategiesStrategies Site Specific Nutrient Site Specific Nutrient

Management : Soil testing Management : Soil testing labs and soil health cards labs and soil health cards

Fertilizer use as per ICAR Fertilizer use as per ICAR /SAU’s Maps/SAU’s Maps

Integrated Nutrient Integrated Nutrient Management Management

Conservation Agriculture Conservation Agriculture PracticesPractices

NBS: Balanced NutritionNBS: Balanced Nutrition

Issues and Strategies Related to Issues and Strategies Related to Soil Health Management Soil Health Management

Current status of nutrient use efficiency

NutrientNutrient Efficiency percentageEfficiency percentage

NN 30-5030-50

PP 10-2010-20

KK <80<80

SS 8-128-12

ZnZn 2-52-5

FeFe 1-21-2

CuCu 1-21-2

MnMn 1-21-2

Measures to increase nutrient use efficiency

MeasureMeasure NutrientNutrient Increase in nutrient Increase in nutrient use efficiency(%)use efficiency(%)

Split vs. single dose application Split vs. single dose application NN 15-2015-20

Furrow placement vs broadcast Furrow placement vs broadcast application application

PKPK 20-3020-30

The incorporation of urea super The incorporation of urea super granules (USG)vs split applicationgranules (USG)vs split application

NN 2020

The foliar vs basal applicationThe foliar vs basal application Micro-nutrientsMicro-nutrients 15-2015-20

Neem coated vs prilled ureaNeem coated vs prilled urea NN 5-105-10

Preferential application of Preferential application of phosphorus to wheat in rice-wheat phosphorus to wheat in rice-wheat sequencesequence

PP 5050

Area under important pulse crops Area under important pulse crops and major pulse producing Statesand major pulse producing States

Major CropsMajor Crops Major States Major States Crop Crop Area (%)Area (%) State State Production (%)Production (%)

ChickpeaChickpea 3939 MaharashtraMaharashtra 2020

Pigeon pea Pigeon pea 2121 M.P. M.P. 1717

Mung beanMung bean 1111 RajasthanRajasthan 1111

Urad beanUrad bean 1010 U.P.U.P. 1111

LentilLentil 77 A.PA.P 1111

Peas Peas 55 70% of Total Production 70% of Total Production

Current Production : 14.7 m t

By 2020 : 22-24 m t

Productivity : : 659 kg / ha

Import 3-4 m t / year

Prices quite high

Other countries 1700-2000 kg/ha

Pulses production : Constraints & StrategiesPulses production : Constraints & Strategies

Constraints Constraints Strategies Strategies Poor genetic potential Poor genetic potential Inadequate quality seed Inadequate quality seed

availability availability Marginal soils /85% under Marginal soils /85% under

rainfedrainfed Inadequate nutritionInadequate nutrition Pests : YVM, Seed treatmentPests : YVM, Seed treatment MSP and TradeMSP and Trade

Genetic potentialGenetic potential Quality seeds Quality seeds Area expansion : Rice fallows (4 m Area expansion : Rice fallows (4 m

ha) and summer moongha) and summer moong Cropping intensity : Intercropping Cropping intensity : Intercropping Diversion of upland rice area Diversion of upland rice area

(productivity < 1.5 t/ha)(productivity < 1.5 t/ha) Pigeon pea on rice bunds Pigeon pea on rice bunds INM / IPM modulesINM / IPM modules Site specific sowing and harvesting Site specific sowing and harvesting

machines machines Blue bulls Blue bulls MSP and procurement MSP and procurement

States with productivity less than States with productivity less than national averagenational average

CropCrop States with productivity less States with productivity less than national average than national average

Wheat Wheat West Bengal, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Bihar, M.P. MaharashtraBihar, M.P. Maharashtra

Rice Rice U.P., Jharkhand, Assam, Bihar, U.P., Jharkhand, Assam, Bihar, Orissa, Maharashtra, ChattisgarhOrissa, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh

Pulses Pulses Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Rajasthan, KarnatakaRajasthan, Karnataka

Oilseeds Oilseeds West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, A.P., KarnatakaMaharashtra, A.P., Karnataka

Source : Paper circulated during Chief Ministers Conference on 6.2.2010

CAGR Yield Analysis of Major Crops – Rice CAGR Yield Analysis of Major Crops – Rice

State State Yield (Kg / Hectare)Yield (Kg / Hectare)

CAGR of yield CAGR of yield (2003-4 to 2007-08)(2003-4 to 2007-08)

2003-042003-04 2007-082007-08 2008-09*2008-09*

PunjabPunjab 2.132.13 36943694 40194019 40224022

A.P.A.P. 2.672.67 30093009 33443344 32473247

HaryanaHaryana 5.165.16 27492749 33613361 27262726

W.BW.B 0.690.69 25042504 25732573 26462646

T.NT.N 5.115.11 23082308 28172817 25102510

KarnatakaKarnataka 2.542.54 23752375 26252625 24342434

U.P.U.P. -1.45-1.45 21872187 20632063 21712171

JharkhandJharkhand 4.454.45 16951695 20182018 19471947

AssamAssam -1.77-1.77 15341534 14281428 17201720

BiharBihar -5.07-5.07 15231523 12371237 16101610

OrissaOrissa 3.153.15 14961496 16941694 15201520MaharashtraMaharashtra 0.670.67 18531853 19031903 15061506

ChattisgarhChattisgarh -0.14-0.14 14541454 14461446 11761176

All India All India 1.451.45 20782078 22022202 21862186

Target CAGRTarget CAGR 1.051.05Note:* 4th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE 2006-07); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR Green: States showing more than target CAGR

PulsesPulses

State State Yield (Kg / Hectare)Yield (Kg / Hectare)

CAGR of yield CAGR of yield (2003-4 to 2007-08)(2003-4 to 2007-08)

2003-042003-04 2007-082007-08 2008-09*2008-09*

U.PU.P -4.78-4.78 890890 731731 908908

A.P.A.P. 9.099.09 567567 803803 821821

M.P. M.P. -5.39-5.39 761761 609609 810810

BiharBihar 0.130.13 814814 818818 804804

GujaratGujarat 3.063.06 748748 843843 757757

MaharashtraMaharashtra 7.007.00 569569 746746 555555

ChattisgarhChattisgarh -0.91-0.91 608608 586586 546546

OrissaOrissa 4.014.01 382382 446446 473473

RajasthanRajasthan -9.19-9.19 590590 401401 467467

KarnatakaKarnataka 14.9814.98 304304 531531 465465

All India All India -0.43-0.43 635635 625625 655655

TargetTarget CAGR**CAGR**

0.240.24

Note:* 4th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE 2006-07); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR: Green: States showing more than target CAGR

Second Green Revolution : Second Green Revolution : The Way ForwardThe Way Forward

11.. High potential low productivity areas (Eastern U.P., High potential low productivity areas (Eastern U.P., Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand and Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh)Chattisgarh)- Extending Green Revolution to ER – 400 crores- Extending Green Revolution to ER – 400 crores

2.2. Sustaining productivity in high productivity zones Sustaining productivity in high productivity zones (Punjab, Haryana, Western U.P.)(Punjab, Haryana, Western U.P.)

3.3. Improving productivity in Coastal States Improving productivity in Coastal States - Multiple use of resources for mixed farming - Multiple use of resources for mixed farming - Rain water harvesting / ground water recharge- Rain water harvesting / ground water recharge- DHORUV Technology- DHORUV Technology

4.4. ENHANCING RAIN WATER UTILIZATION (currently 29% ENHANCING RAIN WATER UTILIZATION (currently 29% is utilized)is utilized)

India largest ground water user in the worldIndia largest ground water user in the world• Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year

(1/4(1/4thth of global total) of global total)• GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water

supplysupply 29% of ground water blocks are semi-critical, critical and 29% of ground water blocks are semi-critical, critical and

over exploited over exploited By 2025, an estimated 60% of GW blocks will be in a critical By 2025, an estimated 60% of GW blocks will be in a critical

situationsituation Country receives average annual rainfall of about 1 meter Country receives average annual rainfall of about 1 meter Hardly 29% of rainfall utilized. Can it be increased to 40, 50, Hardly 29% of rainfall utilized. Can it be increased to 40, 50,

60 ???60 ??? In – situ / ex – situ conservation / Ground water recharge In – situ / ex – situ conservation / Ground water recharge Crop diversification fromCrop diversification from high to low water demanding cropshigh to low water demanding crops

Second Green Revolution : The Way ForwardSecond Green Revolution : The Way Forward

Rain water Harvest : The Best Option

5.5. Surplus food from small farm holdings Surplus food from small farm holdings through multienterprize agriculturethrough multienterprize agriculture

• Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one hectare hectare

• Integrated farming system approachIntegrated farming system approach• Regular income and employment Regular income and employment • A way to organic farming A way to organic farming • Rs. 300 – 400 net income / day from one ha Rs. 300 – 400 net income / day from one ha

holding holding • A way to coup up with predicted climate A way to coup up with predicted climate

change change • Nutritional securityNutritional security

Second Green Revolution : The Way ForwardSecond Green Revolution : The Way Forward

Multi enterprise Model

Second Green Revolution : The Way Second Green Revolution : The Way ForwardForward

6.6. Soil and water conservation strategy for hilly Soil and water conservation strategy for hilly and foot hill zones and foot hill zones

7.7. Soil health and water quality issues vis-à-vis Soil health and water quality issues vis-à-vis human and animal healthhuman and animal health

8.8. Bridging yield gaps between frontline Bridging yield gaps between frontline demonstrations and district average yields demonstrations and district average yields

9.9. Area expansion through the reclamation of Area expansion through the reclamation of nearly 120 m ha waste lands : salt affected, nearly 120 m ha waste lands : salt affected, acidic, eroded, ravines etc (dovetailing of acidic, eroded, ravines etc (dovetailing of Central Schemes like NREGA, RKVY, NHM Central Schemes like NREGA, RKVY, NHM etc.)etc.)

Flouride Toxicity

Saline Waterlogged Soils

Arsenic Toxicity

Second Green Revolution : The Way ForwardSecond Green Revolution : The Way Forward

1010 Couping-up strategies for predicted climate change : Couping-up strategies for predicted climate change : droughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost etcdroughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost etc

11.11. Conversion of waste into wealth : effective utilization of Conversion of waste into wealth : effective utilization of agricultural residues, waste water, use of industrial agricultural residues, waste water, use of industrial effluents effluents

12.12. Remote sensing, GIS, GPS and Satellite techniques in Remote sensing, GIS, GPS and Satellite techniques in assessment, implementation and monitoring of assessment, implementation and monitoring of agricultural systems : Area coverage, crop condition and agricultural systems : Area coverage, crop condition and natural resources natural resources

13.13. Alternative livelihood opportunities in risk prone areas / Alternative livelihood opportunities in risk prone areas / alternative sources of food alternative sources of food

Cold Wave of 2002-03 : Experience at Dehradun

Mango damaged by cold waveMango damaged by cold wave

( a )

Cold wave damaged crops of (a) tomato and (b) potato

( b )

Heat wave of March, 2004

Prosopis juliflora pods:

An alternate source of human food and animal

feed

Alternate food, fodder and energy sources in dry areas

1414.. Effective working together mechanisms between Effective working together mechanisms between research, development and policy at the district / research, development and policy at the district / block levels to ensure : block levels to ensure :

Farmers participatory seed production (KVK’s, Farmers participatory seed production (KVK’s, SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO’s Private SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO’s Private Sector etc. at the district / block level )Sector etc. at the district / block level )

Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned farmsfarms

Weather based forewarning advisories at the Weather based forewarning advisories at the district leveldistrict level

15.15. Food Saved is Food Produced (post harvest and Food Saved is Food Produced (post harvest and storage losses) storage losses)

Second Green Revolution : The Way ForwardSecond Green Revolution : The Way Forward

THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations

THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations