presentation on southeast asia - amcham | philippines · 2018. 2. 19. · asean kunming-singapore...
TRANSCRIPT
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Presentation on Southeast Asia
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Who is this?
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Who is this?
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Who is this?
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Who is this?
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Who is this?
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Geopolitical Themes: Asia
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1942
8
Apex of
Japan’s
WWII
Expansion
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Collapse of
US focus
and leverage
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Fight for
Hegemony
in Asia
Escalating
Geo-political
Tensions In
East China
Sea
11
12
What’s
happening
in South
China Sea?
Spratly Islands
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North Korea
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Possible
Trade War
between
China and US
Boosts global connectivity
Welcomed by ASEAN
Kunming-Singapore Rai lway
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China’s
Growing
Inf luence
OBOR in SEA
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Overview: Southeast Asia
16
Diverse
Young
Emerging Middle Class
Urbanizat ion
Relat ively low GDP per Capita
Regulatory framework
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ASEAN
Overview
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Education
Infrastructure
Energy transition
Universal healthcare
Climate change
No meaningful integration
Death of TPP
Poverty
Under and unemployment
Big Challenges for ASEAN
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ASEAN and AEC
19
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Comparing ASEAN to the world
ASEAN EU US China Japan India
Number of
member states10 28 - - - -
Populations
(millions)629 510 321 1,371 127 1,311
Annual
population
growth (%)
1.11 0.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 1.2
GDP (US$
trillion)2.4 16.3 18.0 11.0 4.1 2.1
GDP per capita
(US$
thousands)
3.9 32.4 56.1 8.1 34.5 1.6
GDP growth
(annual %,
2015)
4.7 2.2 2.6 6.9 0.5 7.6
Source: World Bank 2015;
ASEAN 2016
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ASEAN and the EU are two completely different institutions
Mandate
Parliament
Judicial
Political
Economic
Enforcement
Monetary
ASEAN EU
Strictly intergovernmental Supra-national/ intergovernmental
Elected parliamentNo parliament
EU law of higher order than national lawNo ASEAN law
Democracy a pre-requisite for entry
Myriad political systems
One common marketAEC 2015, 2025
Non-enforceable agreements Enforceable agreements
Eurozone/ Single monetary unionNo plan for monetary union
Capacity ≤300 staff Budget: USD 20 million
32,900 staffBudget: USD 344 billion*
*2017 figures
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The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is highly
ambitious
Key areasPillars
A Single market and
production base
Highly competitive
economic region
Free flow of
goods
Free flow of
services
Free flow of
investment
Priority inte-
gration sectors
Food,
Agriculture
& Forestry
Competition
Policy
Freer flow of
capital
Free flow of
skilled labour
Consumer
protection
Intellectual
Property Rights
Transport
Energy
Mineral
ICT
Taxation
E-
commerce
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2
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Bi latera l FTAs
High FDI
Reg iona l FTA?
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EU
Economic
Diplomacy
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The Philippines
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Duterte the Mayor
Si loed Agencies
Inst itut ional inert ia
Pol it ical Fact ions
Factors for
Diplomacy
Shift ing personnel
Emerging clamour for competit ion
Looming pro-investment reforms
Factors for
Diplomacy
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Myanmar
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Triple transit ion
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Myanmar
R akhine cr i s i s
Crackdown on journa l i sts
Mi l i tary Inf luence in Po l i t i cs
SEZs
Increase FDI
Inf rast ructure
Educat ion, sk i l l s deve lopment
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Opportunities
and
Challenges
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Indonesia
30
Rise of rel ig ious extremism post -Ahok
ReformasiPresident
Balancing reform agenda with power consol idat ion
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Political
Developments
32
2019 Elect ions
2018 Local Elect ions
Balancing national ism vs. FDI
Changing pol it ical dynamics
Suharto era: top-down
Post-Suharto era: bottom up
35 gigawatt power program
Education and ski l ls development
Corruption
Protect ionism; regulatory uncertainty
Palm oi l
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Opportunities
and
Challenges
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Singapore
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General Elect ions 2019
Reserved Presidency 2017
Leadership succession a focus
ASEAN Chair 2018
Socio-Political
Developments
Slower growth
Future Economy
Regional hub
Smart Nation
GLCs looking out
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Economic
Developments
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Security
▪ Cybersecurity
▪ Transnational Crime
▪ Terrorism
Economic Integration
▪ AEC
Digital Economy
▪ Smart Cities Network
▪ E-Commerce
Singapore’s ASEAN Chairmanship, 2018
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Thailand
38
New Constitut ion
Junta for the long haul
End of mourning period
Restricted pol it ical act ivity
Elect ions: late 2018?
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Political
Developments
Slow economic growth
Aggressive FDI court ing
Hi-tech industries
Thai land 4.0
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Opportunities
& Challenges
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Malaysia
41
42
Najib’s posit ion secured
New Opposit ionCoal it ion
General Elect ion 2018
Political
developments
E-commerce Roadmap 2016
Alibaba’s Digital Free Trade zone
High Value Infrastructure
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Economic
Focus
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Vietnam
44
45
Former PM Dzung ousted
Dominant role of Party
More conservative leadership
Corruption crackdown
US & China relat ions
Former Prime Minister
Nguyen Tan Dzung
General Secretary
Nguyen Phu Trong
Overview
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Opportunities
and
Challenges
Strong GDP growth
“Slow reform” to continue
Ambit ious trade commitments
SOE privatizat ion
Fears of competit ion
Education
Ski l led labor
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Cambodia
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Crackdown on opposit ion
2017 commune, 2018 national elect ions
Industrial Development Pol icy
Garment Industry
Rise of SEZs
Overview
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