Presentation OverviewResearch and Policy Links

What we are telling Ministers about an ageing society

Research role: adherence to the UK Code and the structures we

work within

Successes and limitations

Equality and Social Need Research Branch Informing the development of Strategies:

• Anti-poverty (LTO)

• Gender

• Children and Young People

• PSI Groups on disability and lone parents

• Equality Statistics – LFS and the 9 equality categories

• Annual research programme (ESNSG)

Older People

• Production of statistical compendium to inform ‘Ageing in an Inclusive Society’ – updated 2009

• Barriers to essential services• ESRC fellowship – older people in rural areas

(qualitative project with some demographic trend information included)

• Compendium not agreed by Executive• What have we presented to Ministers?

Pension Age Dependents per 1,000 Persons of Working Age

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Year

Depe

nden

ts pe

r 1,00

0 Pers

ons o

f Wor

king

Age

Working age and pensionable age populations based on state pension age as currently defined; 65 years for men and 60 years for w omen.

Maturing SocietiesSarah Harper/Jaco Hoffman (Oxford Inst.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950 1980 2000 2025 2050

Europe 0-14Europe 60+

The % increase of older population in developing countries is much higher than that in developed countries

% increase in elderly population between 1990 and 2025

Indonesia Colombia Kenya Thailand Mexico Zimbabwe Brazil India China US Germany France UKUruguay Sweden

0 100 200 300 400

Total dependency ratios for UK

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

65+yrs

<15 yrs

66% increase in old-age dependency ratios

between 2005 and 2050

Total dependency ratios for Japan

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

65+yrs

<15yrs

150% increase in old-age dependency ratios between 2005 and 2050

Older people relative low income poverty rate by region

0

10

20

30

40

50

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

NI (UK median) UK ROI EU25

Absolute low income poverty rate by lifecycle - UK median

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

Al individuals Children

Working age adults Pensioners

Relative low income rate before social transfers - NI median

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

All Children WA adults Pensioners

Research and Information Strategy

• Agreement by the Executive and foreword signed by FM and dFM

• Took over a year to agree

• Publication rights and report quality issues

• Annual report to Executive covering:

• Policy relevance, costs, impact on policy

Successes

• Strategy documents underpinned by evidence : Poverty, Gender, Childcare

• FMdFM/Executive endorsement of research strategy and annual report on value and impact

• Much activity within the sector (CAP, OP Advocate, ASP, CARDI, Age Concern Help the Aged)

• Better understanding among SpAds of the evidence• Assembly Committee familiarity with and use of our data• UK Statistics Authority – ONS not a ministerial

department, NI Executive agreed the structures

Limitations

• Departments do not always fully exploit the policy relevance of their data – departmental business needs take precedence – new training being developed

• Universities do not always fully exploit the policy relevance of government data – academic output influenced by the research assessment exercise

• Sir Gus O’Donnell – statisticians should be ‘boring’, stats without context are boring

• Policy officials focus on strategy and professionals tend to focus on measurement

• People use evidence selectively – evidence does not always change opinions

Rights based and budget analysis approaches need to be supplemented with research illustrating

economic interdependence

• Children who fail at school need more support if GVA is to improve

• GVA needs to improve to support an ageing population therefore:

• Child well being is related to pensioner poverty• The new childcare strategy has implications for

(particularly female) pensioner poverty

% living in households below 50% and 70% of UK median income by lifecycle and region

  2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

  50% 70% 50% 70% 50% 70% 50% 70% 50% 70%

All individuals                    

NI (UK median) 12 29 12 30 12 29 11 32 11 28

UK 9 26 9 26 9 25 10 26 11 26

                     

Children                    

NI (UK median)13 34 12 36 13 35 13 39 10 33

UK 10 32 11 32 10 32 11 33 12 33

                     

WA adults                    

NI (UK median)11 24 11 24 10 24 10 27 10 23

UK 9 21 9 21 9 21 9 22 9 21

                     

Pensioners                    

NI (UK median) 15 35 16 39 16 39 14 41 18 41

UK 10 34 10 34 9 32 11 33 13 35