PRESENTATION SLIDES

RALPH TORRIE

TRUST IN TRANSITION

UNIVERSITY OF OTTAWA, JANUARY 23, 2018

GHG EMISSIONS BY END USE SERVICELow Temp Heat

(<100C)20%

Med Temp Heat (100-260C)

7%

High Temp Heat (>260C)

8%

Personal Mobility21%

Goods Movement13%

Industrial Motive Power

5%

Electricity Specific13%

Production Emissions for Oil and Gas Exports

(mostly heat)16%

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

PETAJOULES

Domestic Consumption of Primary Energy in Canada, 1926-2014

Coal Petroleum Natural Gas and NGLs Hydro Biomass Nuclear Other Renewables

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-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

Relative Growth of GHG Kaya Factors, Canada, 1926-2014

Population GDP/Capita Energy/GDP CO2/Energy

1/29/2018 5

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

GJ per Thousand $2002

Energy Commodity Consumption/GDP1926-2014

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Coal Oil Gas Hydro Wood Nuclear EnergyProductivity

Petajoules

Contributions to Energy Security in Canada, 1972-2014

1/29/2018 7

1/29/2018 8

1/29/2018 11

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mt eCO2

Oil and Gas Industry -- Export Allocation Energy Intensive Mfg, Mining and Agriculture

General Manufacturing Commercial and Institutional

Residential -- Household Energy Use Personal Transportation

Freight Transportation

The typical “baseline” or “reference” projection of future GHG emissions, end use allocation:

0

200

400

600

800

1926 1950 1974 1998 2022 2046

The low carbon objective represented by the Paris Accord takes us outside the climate change policy box, supports a “fresh look” at strategies and options

GHG Reduction Wedges for Canada -- All Wedges

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Megatonnes eCO2

Target Carbon Capture Freight vehicle eff EE in Oil and Gas Sector

Cogeneration Electricity Intensity Improvements Urban Form Wind pow er

Auto fuel eff Tran propane & CNG Ethanol EE - Secondary Mfg

Ind Eff - Energy Intensive Oil and Gas - Reduce Fugitive New nuclear Biomass

New res bldg Retro comm bldg Retro res bldg New comm bldg

Commerical Lights and equip Industrial Shift Wave pow er Large hydro

Res w ater heat TKT Reduction/Mode Shifts Res Appliances Geothermal

Small hydro Passenger Mode Shift Landfill gas electricity Solar Water Heat

Hydrogen Biodiesel RESIDUAL El transmission

Aviation fuel

RPP

Natural Gas and commodities

Biofuels

Coal

Electricity

Oil Sands Fuel

Biomass

Ilustrative Low-Carbon Energy Transition for Canada…

12,000 Petajoules

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

197

8

1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

Low Carbon Energy Futures –

These five things must happen:

• Efficiency, efficiency and then more

efficiency

• Electricity’s role expands into

transportation and heat

• Decarbonize the electricity supply

• Sustainable production of biofuels

• Innovation to reduce fuel and electricity in

provision of human needs, amenities

• Climate change and its deleterious impacts will increase throughout this century.

• The time frame for the transition is short compared to the inertia in the current energy system.

• The pre-tax price of fossil fuels will be permanently depressed in a low carbon future.

• The prices Canadian households and businesses currently pay for fuel and electricity, when converted to implied carbon prices, are in the range of $200-$500/tonne CO2eq and higher.

Some wicked complications:

1/29/2018 Slide 17

• Transition to low carbon will take place simultaneously with other disruptive and far-reaching transitions, some helpful, some not.

• Capital intensity presents a challenge to policy and business models, but not the same thing as expensive.

• Innovation in financing and business strategies necessary to remove “first cost” barrier, and to resolve split incentives.

• Education and climate literacy will speed the transition.

• Low carbon solutions vary according to local circumstances; local agency and capacity, including in city halls, are essential.

• Human and institutional capacity development are constraints on the accelerated deployment of otherwise ready solutions.

Key considerations:

1/29/2018 Slide 18

Low Carbon Futures

Not feasibleEnthusiasm

Status Quo Emissions

The Policies

We Seek

The Current

Policy Menu

Thank you!