presentation to: hrtpo passenger rail task force 2b pr task... · the airline origin and...

Presentation To:

HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force

December 17, 2013

HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasts

Presentation By

Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

1 TEMS, Inc.

COMPASS™ Forecasting Process Base Year

Socio- Economics

Demand Model

Calibration

•Total Demand •Induced Demand •Modal Split

Base Year Matrix

Transportation Strategies

Travel Demand

Model Run

Financial Analysis

User Benefit

Analysis

Economic Rent

Analysis

Transport Network

Origin- Destination

Data

Trip Matrices

Stated Preference

Survey

Economic Scenarios

Forecast Year Trip Matrices

Revenue Analysis

Data Requirement

Model System Development

Evaluation Process

Forecasting Assumptions

Travel Demand Forecasts

2 TEMS, Inc.

Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study Area Zone System State

Number of Zones

Connecticut 5 Delaware 1

District of Columbia 10 Maryland 70

Massachusetts 7 New Jersey 16 New York 9

North Carolina 43 Pennsylvania 5 Rhode Island 5

Virginia 162 Total Number of

Zones 333

PETERSBURG JAMES CITY GLOUCESTER COUNTY

POQUOSON

WILLIAMSBURG

NEWPORT NEWS

HAMPTON

ISLE OF WIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH

VIRGINIA BEACH SUFFOLK

CHESAPEAKE

YORK COUNTY

3 TEMS, Inc.

Hampton Roads Region Zones Zoom-In

NEWPORT NEWS

HAMPTON ROADS

VIRGINIA BEACH

CHESAPEAKE

SUFFOLK

NORFOLK

HAMPTON

PORTSMOUTH

ISLE OFWIGHT

POQUOSON

YORK COUNTY

GLOUCESTER COUNTY

WILLIAMSBURG

JAMES CITY COUNTY

4 TEMS, Inc.

Sources for Socioeconomic Database U.S. Census Bureau

Hampton Roads Planning District Commission

Richmond Regional Planning District Commission

Crater Planning District Commission

Virginia Employment Commission

Metropolitan Washington County of Governments

Baltimore Metropolitan Council

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

5 TEMS, Inc.

Socioeconomic Growth Projection for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

6 TEMS, Inc.

Attributes Included in COMPASS™ Transportation Networks

Public Modes Auto

Time

In-Vehicle Time Travel Time

Access/Egress Time Congestion Delay

Transfer Time

Wait Time

Costs Fare Operating Costs*

Access/Egress Costs Tolls*

Parking Cost Parking Costs*

Schedule Service Frequency

* Divided by occupancy

7 TEMS, Inc.

Sources of Transportation Networks Transportation networks were based on: State and Local Departments of Transportation

highway databases National Highway System (NHS) database Amtrak schedules Airline schedules The ten percent sample of airline tickets Greyhound schedules Megabus schedules

8 TEMS, Inc.

COMPASS™ Networks

The COMPASS™ Networks include the following networks from Charlotte, NC to Boston, MA (including the Hampton Roads area, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, and New York, NY): Intercity Highway Passenger Rail Air Intercity Bus

9 TEMS, Inc.

Sources of Base Year Trip Database The Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) Air Ticket

Database T-100 Air Market and Segment Database Greyhound and Megabus Schedules Previous travel origin-destination surveys State department of transportation (Virginia, Maryland,

Washington, DC, North Carolina, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts) highway traffic volume Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data

Amtrak passenger rail ridership data Amtrak station volume data TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey

10 TEMS, Inc.

Base Year 2012 Annual Intercity Travel Market for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Person Trips by Mode (million) Travel Market Share by Mode

Total Base Year 2012 Annual Person Trips: 58.97 Million

11 TEMS, Inc.

Values of Time, Frequency, and Access Time VOT (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Car Rail Business $44.45 $11.07 $19.42 $22.51 Commuter - $7.15 $14.80 $18.80 Social $31.76 $8.54 $16.88 $17.88

VOF (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $28.81 $7.33 $18.58 Commuter $6.50 $13.67 Social $26.28 $7.75 $16.13

VOA (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $62.91 - $42.73 Commuter - $8.89 $29.15 Social $47.94 $10.77 $37.66

Intercity value of time is larger than intraurban value of time due to longer trip length, this explains why commuters have lower value of time, which have more intraurban trips than other trip purposes

12 TEMS, Inc.

Future Crude Oil Price Projections

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/

*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated

13 TEMS, Inc.

Future Gasoline Price Projections



14 TEMS, Inc.

Automobile Highway Fuel Efficiency Projections

Estimated based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) historical automobile highway energy intensities data

15 TEMS, Inc.

Gasoline Price Projections Adjusted by Fuel Efficiency Improvement



16 TEMS, Inc.

Highway Congestion Estimates

2012 Travel Time 2025 Estimated

Travel Time Norfolk, VA - Richmond, VA 1Hour 40Min 1Hour 55Min Norfolk, VA - Petersburg, VA 1Hour 35Min 1Hour 43Min

Corridor Highway Travel Time Projection

17 TEMS, Inc.

COMPASS™ Hierarchical Travel Demand Model Structure

Total Demand

Public Modes Auto

Air Surface Modes

Rail Bus

LEVEL 4

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 2

Southside/Norfolk Route

Peninsula Route LEVEL 1

18 TEMS, Inc.

Travel Utility Estimation Process

Step 2: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus

Rail:

)]exp()[exp( PeninsulaRailSouthRailRailRailRail UULnU ++= βα

Bus: BusBusBus GCU β=

Step 4: Compute Utilities for Public and Auto

Step 5: Compute Total Utility

Public:

)]exp()[exp( AirSurfacePublicPublicPublic UULnU ++= βα

Auto: AutoAutoAuto GCU β=

Total:

)]exp()[exp( PublicAutoTotal UULnU +=

Reference:

Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Moshe Ben-Akiva and Steven R. Lerman, The MIT Press 1987

Step 3: Compute Utilities for Surface and Air

Surface:

Air: AirAirAir GCU β=)]exp()[exp( BusRailSurfaceSurfaceSurface UULnU ++= βα

Rail Southside/Norfolk Route: SouthRailSouthRailSouthRailSouthRail GCU βα +=

Rail Peninsula Route: PeninsulaRailPeninsulaRailPeninsulaRail GCU β=

Step 1: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus

19 TEMS, Inc.

Study Area Travel Market Forecast – Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Average annual travel demand growth: 0.9%

20 TEMS, Inc.

130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast-Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

21 TEMS, Inc.

220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast-Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips


22 TEMS, Inc.

130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast-Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included


23 TEMS, Inc.

220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast-Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included


24 TEMS, Inc.

Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast –Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

25 TEMS, Inc.

Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast –Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025


26 TEMS, Inc.

Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025


27 TEMS, Inc.

Sources of HSR Trips- Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand

Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand

28 TEMS, Inc.

Sources of HSR Trips- Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025




29 TEMS, Inc.

Sources of HSR Trips- Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025




30 TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Station Volumes – 130 MPH


31 TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Station Volumes – 220 MPH


32 TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Segment Loadings – 130 MPH

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg

Northern Option 2 via Hopewell

Option 3 Richmond Direct

33 TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Segment Loadings – 220 MPH

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg

Northern Option 2 via Hopewell

Option 3 Richmond Direct

34 TEMS, Inc.

Comparison to AECOM 2009 Study Option 1

Time Daily Round

Trips

2025 Annual Hampton Road-Based Rail Trips

(million)

2025 Annual Hampton Road-

Based Rail Revenue (million $)

AECOM Option 1 90 MPH 1:35 6 1.11 $69.12 TEMS Southern Option via Petersburg Assuming AECOM Option 1 Levels of Service 1:35 6 1.16 $76.7

Source: Richmond/Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Project Alternative Analysis and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement by AECOM, 2009

35 TEMS, Inc.

Contribution of Service and Market Factors to TEMS Forecast of 2025 Annual Rail Trips

36 TEMS, Inc.

Apples-to-Apples Comparison to Amtrak NEC Master Plan and Next-Gen HSR (Internal Intercity Trips Only)

2025 Hampton

Roads-Washington Corridor - 130 MPH

2025 Hampton Roads-

Washington Corridor - 220

MPH

2030 NEC Master Plan (Constrained

Acela)

2030 NEC Next-Gen HSR (220

MPH)

2030 NEC Master Plan

NYC-DC Corridor

(Constrained Acela)

2030 NEC Next-Gen

HSR NYC-DC Corridor (220

MPH)

Rail Trip Rate (trips per 10,000 person per day) 6.83 10.29 14.18 16.64 18.86 22.19

37 TEMS, Inc.

Appendix

38 TEMS, Inc.

Stated Preference Survey Deployment

On-Site Survey Team Actual Deployment & Online Survey

TEMS conducted the stated preference survey in order to Update Value of Time (VOT), Value of Frequency (VOF), and Value of

Access/Egress (VOA) in the study area Update the modal choice model and total demand model for the passenger rail

ridership and revenue forecasts

39 TEMS, Inc.

Stated Preference Survey Counts

Actual Survey Counts

Location Field & Online Count (Actual)

DMV 1,377

Airport 573

Amtrak 690

Bus 96

TOTAL 2,736

TOTAL of VOT’s, VOF’s & VOA’s for all modes = 3,792

40 TEMS, Inc.

VOT Calculation Results

41 TEMS, Inc.

VOF Calculation Results

42 TEMS, Inc.

VOA Calculation Results

43 TEMS, Inc.

Thank You

Presentation To

HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force

December 17, 2013

HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Operations Plan

and Costs

Presentation By

Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

1 TEMS, Inc.

# Tasks1 Project Management

2 Rail Alternatives

3 Ridership and Revenue

- Forecasts Sensitivity Analysis

4 Rail Service Analysis

5 Operating and Capital Costs

6 Financial and Economic Analysis

- Financial

- Economic

7 Environmental Scan

8 Implementation Plan

9 Report

MEETINGSPRESENTATIONSMONTHLY PROGRESS REPORTS

M6M3 M4M2 M12M7M5 M8M1 M10 M11M9

PHASE 2B WORK PLAN

2 TEMS, Inc.

BACKGROUND/CONTEXT FOR THE OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS

3 TEMS, Inc.

HAMPTON ROADS CORRIDOR AS PART OF SEHSR

4 TEMS, Inc.

HOWEVER, THERE IS A “GAP IN THE MIDDLE” OF SEHSR

Very Low Population Area

5 TEMS, Inc.

. . . AS A RESULT, IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT HAMPTON ROADS IS MORE FUNCTIONALLY DEPENDENT ON THE NEC THAN ON SEHSR

The Hampton Roads Corridor has been divided into three segments for analysis purposes: 1. Washington DC to Richmond 2. Richmond to Newport News - “Peninsula” 3. Richmond to Norfolk - “Southside”

6 TEMS, Inc.

ORIGINALLY, DEVELOPMENT “STEPS” WERE DEFINED FOR BOTH THE PENINSULA AND SOUTH SIDE ROUTES

Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure

Station

I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Shared Track Schedule Enhancement

Main Street Newport News

(existing)

Step 1 Route 460/

Norfolk Southern 79 mph 1-3 Shared Track NS

Staples Mill Only Norfolk

I-64/CSXT

79 mph 3 Shared Track Main Street

Newport News (existing)

Step 2 (DEIS Alt 1)

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79-90 mph 4-6 Shared Track

V Line Main Street Bowers Hill

I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Main Street

Newport News Downtown/Airport Step 3

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern

110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track


I-64/CSXT

110 mph 6-9 Dedicated Track Main Street

Newport News Downtown/Airport Step 4

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern

150 mph 12-16 Dedicated Electric Track


DRPT Focus

HRTPO Focus

*

*Note: Norfolk Southern (NS) does not permit passenger train maximum authorized speed in excess of 79-mph on any NS track. Where the V-line (former Virginian Railway) has existing freight services, maximum authorized speed for passenger trains will be 79-mph. Along the Algren – Kenyon portion of the V-line (over which NS freight rail service has been formally abandoned), passenger rail planners may consider speeds above 79-mph.

7 TEMS, Inc.

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

79-mph 79-mph 79-mph 90-mph 90-mph 110-mph 110-mph 150-mph

Washington to Richmond

2:451

2:152

2:203

2:05

2:20

1:30

1:30

1:05

Richmond to Norfolk

1:48

1:485

1:10

0:55

Richmond to Newport News

1:25

1:25

1:13

0:52 Total 4:10 4:03 3:45 3:53 3:33 2:40 2:22 2:004

1 2:45 current Amtrak time to Main Street, 1:35 to Newport News 2 2:15 current Amtrak time to Staples Mill Road Station only, does not go to Main Street 3 2:20 to Main Street, train operates at 90 mph north of Richmond 4 2:00 proposed schedule objective for HSR electric service 5 1:48 at 79-mph Richmond to Norfolk

SCHEDULES WERE DEVELOPED FOR THE WHOLE CORRIDOR FROM HAMPTON ROADS TO WASHINGTON D.C.

Source: Exhibit B-6, Progress Report B, page B-13, 2010 study

8 TEMS, Inc.

… BUT, RECENTLY THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON REFINING PLAN FOR THE SOUTHSIDE SERVICE TO NORFOLK

Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure Station

Step 3 Norfolk-Richmond along Route 460 110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track


Step 4 Norfolk-Richmond along Route 460 150 mph+ 12-16 Dedicated Electric

Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill

Focus of the Study

9 TEMS, Inc.

Electric HST 160-220 mph

Business Model of the MWRRS Speeds up to 130-mph on

dedicated high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared

tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Diesel

Locomotives Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment

Business Model of California HSR Speeds up to 220-mph on

dedicated high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared

tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Electric

Locomotives Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment

Diesel HrST 90-130 mph

TRAIN TECHNOLOGY HAS ADVANCED SINCE 2010! Because of “Alternative Tier 1 Compliance,” High Speed 220-mph electric trains can now share freight tracks at speeds under 125-mph –the California “Blended Operations” model has also been adopted by Amtrak for the NEC. There is now only a single generic High Speed electric train and it can operate at 220-mph. The diesel train can operate up to 130-mph. NS policy prohibits shared operations above 79-mph, and a dedicated track could support 130-mph, so it makes sense to evaluate the diesel operation at that speed.

http://www.google.com/search?iact=hc&vpx=581&vpy=542&dur=2598&hovh=183&hovw=275&tx=263&ty=204&sig=102421205185600002420&ei=VBEHUPXCB6ng0QHjicDBCA&page=1&tbnh=157&tbnw=221&start=0&ndsp=28&ved=1t:429,r:16,s:0,i:139

10 TEMS, Inc.

HAMPTON ROADS TO WASHINGTON D.C. RAIL SERVICE ASSUMPTIONS*

Washington D.C. to Richmond, 109 miles (Current Time 2:00, 79 mph): • Assumes a new conceptual greenfield due to capacity and geometric

limitation of existing ROW • 130-mph diesel could easily achieve 1:30 on a greenfield – an aggressive tilt

train could achieve this time on the existing CSX alignment • 220-mph electric could achieve 0:55 based on a high quality greenfield from

Lorton to Richmond Richmond to Norfolk, 97-105 miles (Current Time 2:00, 79 mph):

• 13 daily round trips at 130-mph; 1:00 to 1:10 schedule times • 22 daily round trips at 220-mph; 0:45 to 0:55 schedule times

Richmond to Newport News, 75 miles (Current Time 1:25, 79 mph): • 3 daily round trips at 79-mph; 1:25 schedule time

OVERALL – Cut Norfolk-Washington DC Time in half: 4 hours to 2 hours, 220 mph *Source: Proposed Detailed Operating Schedules follow in this presentation

11 TEMS, Inc.

SOUTHSIDE NORFOLK SERVICE: ROUTE OPTIONS UNDER DEVELOPMENT

12 TEMS, Inc.

SOUTHSIDE ROUTE OPTIONS “COVER ALL THE BASES” Route Options Under Analysis • Existing Rail • Northern and Southern Greenfields,

via Petersburg and Hopewell • Richmond Direct Greenfield Speeds Under Analysis • 130-mph and 220-mph

13 TEMS, Inc.

COMMON SEGMENTS TO ALL OPTIONS

Richmond Station All High Speed Options (either East Shore or I-295) approach from

the East on an elevated Viaduct. Common Segment: Fulton Gas Works to Main Street Station

Bowers Hill to Norfolk Harbor Park

Common Segment: “V” Line and NS Main into downtown Norfolk

14 TEMS, Inc.

ROUTE OPTIONS UNDER ANALYSIS

15 TEMS, Inc.

ROUTE OPTION 1 – VIA PETERSBURG

Staples Mills

Richmond-Main St.

Williamsburg

Newport News-Airport

Newport News-Amtrak

Newport News-Downtown

Norfolk Bowers Hill

Suffolk

Hopewell-Fort Lee

Petersburg-Ettrick

16 TEMS, Inc.

ROUTE OPTION 2 - VIA HOPEWELL

Staples Mills

Richmond-Main St.

Williamsburg


Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown

Norfolk

Bowers Hill

Suffolk

Hopewell-Fort Lee

Petersburg-Ettrick

17 TEMS, Inc.

ROUTE OPTION 3 - RICHMOND DIRECT

Staples Mills

Richmond-Main St.

Williamsburg


Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown

Norfolk

Bowers Hill

Suffolk

Hopewell-Fort Lee

Petersburg-Ettrick

18 TEMS, Inc.

SOUTHSIDE NORFOLK SERVICE: OPERATIONS PLAN DEVELOPMENT

19 TEMS, Inc.

INTERACTIVE ANALYSIS APPROACH

Methodology for developing an optimized plan –

Using the data that has already been collected in Phase 2A

Service Plan Trains

LOCOMOTION™ Scheduling & Operations

Operating Costs

Market AnalysisCOMPASS™Ridership &

FaresRevenues

InfrastructureTRACKMAN™

Terminal Facilities

Capital Costs

Financial & Economic Feasibility

INPUT INTERACTIVE

ANALYSIS OUTPUT

20 TEMS, Inc.

RICHMOND-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES Part of All Route Options

Station Super

Express Express Local

Richmond Main St 0:00 0:00 0:00

Ashland 0:12

Fredericksburg 0:40 0:45

Quantico 1:08

Alexandria 1:20 1:25 1:35

Washington Union 1:30 1:35 1:45

Station Super



Ashland 0:10

Fredericksburg 0:25 0:30

Quantico 0:45

Alexandria 0:43 0:48 0:58


130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric

These times are consistent with the Step 4 times of 1:30 and 1:05 for Diesel and Electric options, respectively, from 2010 Progress Report B

The 1:30 Diesel time can be done on the CSX alignment using

aggressive tilt technology. The other times are based on conceptual route options only between Richmond and Washington DC

21 TEMS, Inc.

ROUTE OPTION 1: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA PETERSBURG

* Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop


Same time for Southern Greenfield or dedicated NS Option

Station Super


Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00

Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12

Suffolk 0:17

Petersburg 0:53 0:58



Station Super


Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00

Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10

Suffolk 0:15

Petersburg 0:40 0:45



22 TEMS, Inc.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000

Spee

d(m

ph)

Milepost

Maximum Allowable Speed

Maximum Attainable Speed

LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 1: Lorton-Richmond + East Shore + Southern Greenfields – 1:40:36 unimpeded at 220-mph

Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton

Richmond/ Petersburg

Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line

23 TEMS, Inc.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000

Spee

d(m

ph)

Milepost



LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 1: Lorton-Richmond + East Shore + Southern Greenfields – 2:08:25 unimpeded at 130-mph


Richmond/ Petersburg


24 TEMS, Inc.

ROUTE OPTION 2: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA HOPEWELL



Same time for Northern Greenfield or dedicated NS Option

Station Super


Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00

Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12

Suffolk 0:17

Hopewell 0:50 0:53



Station Super


Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00

Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10

Suffolk 0:15

Hopewell 0:37 0:42



25 TEMS, Inc.

LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 2: Lorton-Richmond + I-295 + Northern Greenfields – 1:40:30 unimpeded at 220-mph

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000

Spee

d(m

ph)

Milepost




Richmond/ I-295 / Hopewell


26 TEMS, Inc.

LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 2: Lorton-Richmond + I-295 + Northern Greenfields – 2:07:19 unimpeded at 130-mph

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000

Spee

d(m

ph)

Milepost




Richmond/ I-295 / Hopewell


27 TEMS, Inc.

Station Super

Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00

Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10 Suffolk 0:15

Richmond Main St 0:43 0:43 0:48 Washington Union 1:38 1:43 1:58

ROUTE OPTION 3: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA RICHMOND DIRECT

Station Super

Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00

Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12 Suffolk 0:17

Richmond Main St 0:59 0:59 1:04 Washington Union 2:31 2:36 2:51



These times are consistent with the Step 3 and 4 times of 2:40 and 2:00 for Diesel and Electric options, respectively, from 2010 Progress Report B

Times are based on conceptual route options only between Richmond and

Washington DC

28 TEMS, Inc.

LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 3: Lorton-Richmond + Richmond Direct Greenfields – 1:31:10 unimpeded at 220-mph

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000

Spee

d(m

ph)

Milepost




Richmond


29 TEMS, Inc.

LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 3: Lorton-Richmond + Richmond Direct Greenfields – 1:59:57 unimpeded at 130-mph

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000

Spee

d(m

ph)

Milepost




Richmond


30 TEMS, Inc.

SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE RESULTS

Stations Super Express Express Local

Norfolk √ √ √ Bowers Hill √ √ √ Suffolk – – √ Petersburg/Hopewell* – √ √ Richmond Main St √ √ √ Ashland – – √ Fredericksburg – √ √ Quantico – – √ Alexandria √ √ √ Washington Union √ √ √

130-mph Total Trains 4 trains 5 trains 4 trains 130-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 2:36 2:46 3:01 130-mph Time Richmond Direct 2:31 2:36 2:51

220-mph Total Trains 6 trains 12 trains 4 trains 220-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 1:45 1:55 2:10 220-mph Time Richmond Direct 1:38 1:43 1:58

* Stations Bypassed by Richmond Direct

31 TEMS, Inc.

SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE COMPARISON

The performance of the 130-mph and 220-mph options both depend on the characteristics of the option that is ultimately developed between Richmond and Washington D.C.

• The 130-mph diesel would likely operate between 1:05 and 1:30 • The 220-mph electric would likely operate between 0:55 and 1:30

The schedule times of all four route options are very close. The results of this more detailed assessment support the findings of the earlier 2010 study, Progress Report B.

Petersburg and Hopewell route options have the same times. These route options are 5 minutes slower than Richmond Direct, plus an additional 5 minutes if they add a stop.

This time difference is not enough to drive major differences in ridership between the options. The route selection will likely be made based on cost, environmental factors and route synergies.

32 TEMS, Inc.

OPERATING COSTS

33 TEMS, Inc.

OPERATING COST CATEGORIES

Drivers Cost Categories

Train Miles

Equipment Maintenance Energy and Fuel Train and Engine Crews Onboard Service Crews

Passenger Miles

Insurance Liability

Ridership and Revenue

Sales and Marketing

Fixed Cost

Service Administration Track and ROW Maintenance Station Costs

Costs were developed for four rail technologies • 79-mph convention diesel • 130-mph High Speed diesel • 150-mph and 220-mph High Speed electric

34 TEMS, Inc.

SUMMARY OF OPERATING COSTS

Unit Cost

Driver Greenfield 130-mph

diesel

Greenfield 220-mph electric

Equipment Maintenance Train-Miles $12.70 $14.08 Train Crew* Train-Miles $4.92 $4.60 Fuel or Energy* Train-Miles $8.71 $2.80 On Board Services (Labor)* Train-Miles $2.56 $2.41 On Board Services (Goods Sold) * % of OBS

Revenue 50% 50%

Insurance Passenger-Mile 1.4¢ 1.4¢ Track (Shared) Train-Miles over

Shared Track N/A N/A

Track and Electrification (Dedicated) Dedicated Track Miles

$27,924 plus Cyclic Capital

$54,783 plus Cyclic Capital

Operations and Dispatch* Train-Miles 50.8¢ 50.8¢ Stations* Staffed and

Unstaffed Stations $6.45 mill $6.45 mill

Administration and Management (Fixed)* Fixed $14.35 mill $14.35 mill Administration and Management (Call Center: Variable Train-Miles)*

Train-Miles $1.84 $1.84

Administration and Management (Call Center: Variable Riders)

Riders 70.9¢ 70.9¢

Credit Card and Travel Agency Commissions* Percent of Revenue

2.8% 2.8%

Operator Profit Markup Selected (*) Costs 10% 10% *This cost is included in the operator profit 10 percent markup

35 TEMS, Inc.

130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph

REVENUE

Ticket Revenue $194.73 $330.95 $194.73 $330.95 $190.90 $322.52 $190.90 $322.52 $202.58 $334.25OBS Revenue 8% $15.58 $26.48 $15.58 $26.48 $15.27 $25.80 $15.27 $25.80 $16.21 $26.74

Total Revenue $210.30 $357.43 $210.30 $357.43 $206.17 $348.32 $206.17 $348.32 $218.79 $360.99

COSTSTrain Crew $10.83 $15.67 $10.83 $15.67 $10.71 $15.26 $10.71 $15.26 $11.10 $15.69OBS $13.42 $21.45 $13.42 $21.45 $13.21 $20.90 $13.21 $20.90 $13.88 $21.59Equipment $27.96 $47.95 $27.96 $47.95 $27.65 $46.72 $27.65 $46.72 $28.65 $48.03Fuel $19.57 $8.92 $19.57 $8.92 $19.35 $8.69 $19.35 $8.69 $20.06 $8.94Track $11.95 $23.45 $11.95 $23.45 $11.78 $23.12 $11.78 $23.12 $11.56 $22.68Insurance $7.40 $11.44 $7.40 $11.44 $7.32 $11.15 $7.32 $11.15 $7.58 $11.46Call Ctr Variable $2.65 $3.82 $2.65 $3.82 $2.62 $3.71 $2.62 $3.71 $2.77 $3.94 T-Agent and CC Comm $5.45 $9.27 $5.45 $9.27 $5.35 $9.03 $5.35 $9.03 $5.67 $9.36Stations $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $5.91 $5.91Admin and Mgt $18.40 $20.62 $18.40 $20.62 $18.36 $20.46 $18.36 $20.46 $18.50 $20.63Operation & Dispactch $1.09 $1.70 $1.09 $1.70 $1.07 $1.67 $1.07 $1.67 $1.05 $1.64Operator Profit 10% selected items $7.79 $8.79 $7.79 $8.79 $7.71 $8.62 $7.71 $8.62 $7.89 $8.77

Total Cost $132.95 $179.51 $132.95 $179.51 $131.57 $175.77 $131.57 $175.77 $134.63 $178.63

Operating Surplus $77.35 $177.92 $77.35 $177.92 $74.60 $172.55 $74.60 $172.55 $84.16 $182.36

Operating Ratio 1.58 1.99 1.58 1.99 1.57 1.98 1.57 1.98 1.63 2.02

Option 3 - Richmond DirectFinancial 2025(mill. 2012$)

Southern Option 1A - Greenfield

Southern Option 1B - Norfolk Southern

Northern Option 2A - Greenfield

Northern Option 2B - Norfolk Southern

Southern Option 1 - Via Petersburg Northern Option 2 - Via Hopewell

FIRST CUT CONSOLIDATED OPERATING RESULTS

36 TEMS, Inc.

THANK YOU

presentation to: hrtpo passenger rail task force 2b pr task... · the airline origin and...

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