presentation to mit lmp mckinsey and co.turkmenistan malaysia all others indonesia kazakhstan...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation to MIT LMPSeptember 2007
Energy at a Crossroads
McKinsey and Co.
250501master.ppt
1
Today’s discussion
• Where are we headed in the world’s energy supply anddemand balance (focusing on petroleum)?– Demand growth led by emerging economies– Supply concentration in a few resource holders– Increased volatility– Future geopolitical and technical challenges
• Why will this matter to engineers and manufacturers?
250501master.ppt
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The petroleum industry has evolved through several eras
Source: EIA
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20042002 2006
U.S. refiners crude oil acquisition costUSD/bbl
4. Recent pricesurge(1999-now)
3. Oil price bust (1983-98)2. Oil crisis andprice boom(1973-82)
1. Pre oilcrisis(Pre1973)
250501master.ppt
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The petroleum industry has evolved through several eras
Source: EIA
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20042002 2006
U.S. refiners crude oil acquisition costUSD/bbl
4. Recent pricesurge(1999-now)
3. Oil price bust (1983-98)2. Oil crisis andprice boom(1973-82)
1. Pre oilcrisis(Pre1973)
• High demand growth in US and Europe driven bytransportation and generation markets
• Easy access to Middle East reserves• Slow growth in indigenous production in US/EU• Industry dominated by the ‘seven sisters’ (Exxon,
BP, Shell, Mobil, Texaco, Gulf and Chevron)
250501master.ppt
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The petroleum industry has evolved through several eras
Source: EIA
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20042002 2006
U.S. refiners crude oil acquisition costUSD/bbl
4. Recent pricesurge(1999-now)
3. Oil price bust (1983-98)2. Oil crisis andprice boom(1973-82)
1. Pre oilcrisis(Pre1973)
• OPEC countries established tight control• Majors stimulated non-OPEC production by
developing North Sea and Alaska (1970s)• OPEC cartel formed as resource holders
nationalized oil assets and becomes industry pricesetter
250501master.ppt
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The petroleum industry has evolved through several eras
Source: EIA
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20042002 2006
U.S. refiners crude oil acquisition costUSD/bbl
4. Recent pricesurge(1999-now)
3. Oil price bust (1983-98)2. Oil crisis andprice boom(1973-82)
1. Pre oilcrisis(Pre1973)
• Oil consumption per unit of GDP decreased50% from 1970s-80s due to switching from oil togas and increasing vehicle fuel efficiency
• Majors started gaining access to reserves informer Soviet Union (1990s)
• New technologies for deepwater, and 3-Dseismic introduced (1980s)
• Competition between OPEC nations resulted inover-supply and reduction of investment inhigh cost countries
250501master.ppt
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The petroleum industry has evolved through several eras
Source: EIA
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20042002 2006
U.S. refiners crude oil acquisition costUSD/bbl
4. Recent pricesurge(1999-now)
3. Oil price bust (1983-98)2. Oil crisis andprice boom(1973-82)
1. Pre oilcrisis(Pre1973)
• Rapid growth in Asia energy demand – China and India• Regions such as North Sea and North America passed peak oil• Growth of global LNG – making gas supplies more accessible
to global markets• Mega-mergers*’ to enhance access to high quality unexploited
fields and create value through lower cost structures and/orbetter capital discipline, creating the Super-Majors of today
• Emergence of ‘national champions’ – NOCs with internationalambitions
250501master.ppt
7
Since 2003, the industry has been in a ‘fly-up’ period characterized bylow spare capacity
Oil demand and production capacity
4.64.44.13.93.73.53.02.7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Spare production capacity
Source: EIA; McKinsey analysis
Production capacity
Demand
75
80
85
90
95
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10.8
2003 2004
1.9%CAGR
Million bopd
250501master.ppt
8
As a result, oil prices rose dramatically to a new range…
Source: CRA, Bloomberg, NYMEX, EIA, Platts, McKinsey analysis
WTI crude oil price and NYMEX forward curves, nominal pricesDollars per barrel
Historically. . .
• Forward prices havehad the tendency to“revert to the mean” of~20 USD/B
. . . but today
• The overall price of oilhas risen to, and heldat, historically highlevels
• For now, the slopeof the forward curvesreflect a belief that oilprices have moved to anew price band
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10
250501master.ppt
9
…with a small but vocal group raising the possibility that it could go muchhigher
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Dec-01 Aug-02 Apr-03 Dec-03 Aug-04 Apr-05 Dec-05 Aug-06 Apr-07
Ixis CIB investmentbank
Osama Bin Laden
Matthew Simmons
Goldman Sachs
T. Boone Pickens
WTI Crude Oil Price, nominal pricesUSD/B
NYMEX futures
US oil majorsconsensus
If one takes into account the level of previous oil shockssuch as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of
$380 per barrel is out of the question."
“Osama bin Laden has argued that the price of petroleum — even at $40 barrel —is so low as to constitute extortion. It is kept at this artificially deflated price throughU.S. coercion and Saudi complicity. Osama argues that the fair price of oil issomewhere above $200/barrel.” --National Review
"Oil is far too cheap at the moment," says Mr Simmons."The figure I'd use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically tocontrol its demand. That is because global production is peaking."BBC News
'We believe oil prices have entered the early stages of a super-spike period,'said analyst Arjun Murti, who raised his price range to $50-105 a barrel from$50-80.
"I think people are scratching their heads as to whether the world will accept $60like it did $50...You could go to $70, but at some point it's going to cost on thedemand side. Sixty may slow everything down."
Source: CRA, Bloomberg, NYMEX, EIA, Platts, McKinsey analysis
250501master.ppt
10
Key trends
Going forward, we foresee a challenging period for the industry
Availability andaccessibility ofresource
Industry coststructure
Significance ofOECD marketsrelative to Asia
Demand growth
Dem
an
dS
up
ply
Key driving forces
Technology &capabilities
Impact on industry dynamics
• Demand growth relative to supply will increase pricevolatility as spare capacity diminishes
• Growth of LNG and pipeline gas will eventuallymake gas a commodity
• Non-MRH entities will need to increasingly accessmarginal cost opportunities and increase price riskexposure
• A significant portion of trade flows may be regulatedby G-G relationship instead of open contract
• Discipline with OPEC countries will influence theircollective control over supply
• Lowered spare capacity, coupled with demandfluctuation, may result in higher price volatility
• Technology breakthrough will bring possibility of thenew supply and improved cost efficiency
• Access to reserves will depend on meeting socialand political objectives of resource holdingcountries
• Oil demand growth will accelerate inthe next 15 years and gas demand willgrow faster than oil
• Increasing need to compete intechnically challenging environmentwill likely drive up industry cost
• Reserves will increasingly concentrateto OPEC and few other countries
• Low industry CAPEX investment in the80s and 90s resulted in low sparecapacity
• High oil price will encourage theemergence of alternative energies
• Aging talent pool may be a limit tosupply growth
• Many resource-holding countries havesignificant geo-political risks
• Growth of Asia market will likely give NOCs ofChina and India bargaining chips in theirinternational expansion
• Continued significance of OECD countries willenable super majors to remain the key intermediarybetween markets and resource holding countries
• Such strong demand growth is mainlydriven by China, India, and otherdeveloping countries
• OECD countries will sustain asignificant portion in global demand
Geopolitics
250501master.ppt
11
We are not running out of hydrocarbon resources soon…
* Based on 2005 production of 29 billion barrels
Source: BP Statistical review; USGS, S.A. Holditch; Rand corporation
2,200
1,400
1,000
500
300
400
140
110
90
60
40
Cumula-tive pro-duction
Proven reserves
IOR/EOR
Yet to find oil
Tar Sands
Oil Shale
Non-OPEC
OPEC and Non-OPEC ResourcesBillions of barrels
900 1,300 1,600 1,900
600 OPEC
250501master.ppt
12
2005 proven reserves
…but today’s global reserves are concentrated within a few resourceholders with political risks
* Including tar sands and heavy oil** 2003 data
*** EIU Business environment risk below 6 or Viewswire risk rating C or below
Source: Oil and Gas Journal; EIU; Viewswire; team analysis
264,310
178,790
132,460
115,000
101,500
97,800
79,729
60,000
39,126
35,876
21,371
18,250
15,270
12,882
11,350
108,835
185
160
151
112
98
75
71
62
990
1,680
971
910
241
214
192
Country
Saudi Arabia
Proven oil reservesMMbbl
Russian Federation
Mexico
Qatar
Iraq
Iran
U.S.
Nigeria
United Arab Emirates**
Venezuela
Libya
China
Algeria
Other total
Top 15 = 92%of oil reserves
70% ofreserves in
OPECmembers
Canada*
Russian Federation
Iran
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates**
U.S.
Nigeria
Algeria
Iraq
Turkmenistan
Malaysia
All others
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Venezuela
Qatar
Proven gas reservesTCF
Top 14 = 84%of gas reserves
52% ofreserves in
OPECmembers
Kuwait
OPEC members
Risky country***
250501master.ppt
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Producers outside of OPEC will need to access more marginalsources of supply to compete
Depleting conventionalresource base pushes nonOPEC players into alternativeresource ventures with highercosts
OPECDollars per barrel; WTI price basis
Venezuela
UAE Algeria
Kuwait China
USA
Mexico
Iran
Angola
Malaysia
Iraq
GOM
FSU
Brazil
CanadaHeavy
MBD
US stripper wells
Ira
q
SaudiArabia
Kuwait
Algeria
Iran
VenezuelaHeavy
Russia
NigeriaAngola
Brazil
TarSands
GTL
SaudiArabia
Capital recovery
Variable costs
2007 demand
Canada-Conventional
UKNorway
Source: McKinsey analysis
Existing capacity(variable cost)
New capacity(full cost)
2002 demand
Maturing asset basecontinues to shiftplayers to the right handside of industry costcurve
Marginal costs
2002 ESTIMATE
Changes since 2002:• High cost inflation,
particularly in OECDand technologicallycomplexenvironments
• Unit cost increasedue to smaller fieldson line
Contrast between lowcost and high costplayers haveincreased
250501master.ppt
14
Future challenges will increase the cost of supply…
Size of exploration discovery isdecreasing
1
4044
21
1215
1999 2000 20032001
Global exploration discoveriesBillion boe
Source: Infield; IHS; team analysis
2002
Projects are more commercially and technically complex
3
24 22
7056
622
1990–03 2003–13
Distribution of project complexity%
High
Moderate
Low
Source: Goldman Sachs; team analysis
100% = 22 27
Tax rates are increasing2
53 58
2004 2013
Average tax rate
Source: Wood MacKenzie; team analysis
Growth is likely to come fromunconventional breakthroughs
5
Unconventional Resource basebillion boe
Heavy crude
Arctic gas
Deep gas
UDW
Hydrates
GTL
2,000
250
10-20
20-50
50
10-30
Source: Press research
Fewer Openings4
Source: Wood MacKenzie; team analysis
8
1747
71
45
12Open
Controlled access
Not Open10
33
15
12
25
6
UAE
Saudi
Mexico
Iraq
Iran
Kuwait1993 2003
Distribution of reservesBillion boe
250501master.ppt
15
…but long-term pricing may be constrained by the price ofalternatives
• Most alternative fuels are economical at less than $50/bbl• Initial capital investments can be >$1 billion and high oil prices must be
sustained for 10-20 years to earn reasonable return on investment
ESTIMATES
Sources: Press releases; team analysis
With currentcost inflation
Withoutsubsidies
Ultra deep-water
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Gas to liquids
Biodiesel
Oil shale
Coal-to-liquids
EthanolBrazil (sugar cane) U.S. (Corn)
?
$80 (EU)
Today
In 10years
China U.S.
Cellulosic biomass ?
Tar sands
New EOR
250501master.ppt
16
Chinese GDP, 1960-2005USD trillions*
* Calculated using 2003 prices and exchange rates
Source: World Bank
CAGR 1978-2005
9.4%
Top economies by GDP, 2005USD Billion*
CAGR 1960-1977
5.2%
China’s economy is the fourth largest in the world
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2005
2,110
Italy
China
1,723
2,193
France
UK
2,782
US 12,455
Japan 4,506
Germany
2,229
Start of economicreforms
1. Security of energy supply
250501master.ppt
17
* 2003
** 2000
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2004; Euromonitor (May 2005); GfK Basiszahlen 2005; U.S. Census Bureau (2004)
• Shower
• Air conditioner
• Color TV
• Computer
• Automobile
1990 1995 2005
Per capita floor space in m
• Urban
• Rural
13.7
17.8
16.3
21.0
26.1
29.763.0**
ChinaU.S.2004
Per 100 Urban households
China has a rapidly improving standard of living, but still has a ways to go toreach Western standards
35.8
0.1
20.0
0.0
1.7
38.3
8.1
89.8
5.1
2.3
72.7
80.7
134.8
41.5
3.4
99.7
77.5
99.6
72.8
93.2
Over 440MM peopleare expected toachieve middleclass status (over$13,500 USD inincome) by 2010
250501master.ppt
18 Sources: The Observer: "China Syndrome" (May 2004); The Asian Wall Street Journal: "State Control" (April 2004)
• Lack of infrastructure for refining oil
• Long-term underinvestment in the coaland electricity industries
• 22 regions have suffered from frequentpower cuts in 2004 (16 in 2003)
• Institutions (e.g., hospitals, hotels,schools) have to buy backup generators
• Chinese factories face energy rationing
• Ports, refineries, and pipelines are unableto cope with the rising demand for oilproducts
• China now importing 50% of oil consumed
• Energy demand soared up to2.11 trillion kilowatt hours in2004 (12% increase from 2003)
• 75% increase in car ownershipover the past 10 years
• Consumers fail to constraintheir energy consumption
High energy demand Low energy supply
Energy supply is becoming a constraint to growth
Other infrastructure (e.g., rail, ports) also partially
unsatisfactory, but energy currently the most important
problem
250501master.ppt
19
The Chinese National Oil Companies have embarked on anaggressive international search for oil
Source: Literature search, Wood Mackenzie
Existing contracts
CNOOC
Petrochina
Sinopec
Possible contracts
CNOOC
Petrochina
Sinopec
Ecuador• Exploration
of Block 11
USA• Unocal
acquisitionby CNOOCstopped
Canada
Cananda• MEG Energy
Australia• North West shelf
Algeria• Zarzaitine
Chad
Kazakhstan• Aktobe• North Buzachi
Turkmenistan• Gumda
Myanmar
Uzbekistan• Bukhara-Khiva
Russia• Orenburg
Niger• Risk exploration
Nigeria• Stubb creek
Russia• Possible Yugansk
acquisition by CNPC
Saudi Arabia• Ar-Rub‘ Al-Khali
Iran• Yada-
varan
Azerbaijan• K&K• Gobustan
Syria• Gbeibe
Algeria• Adrar• Block 350 and
Block 102a/112
Morocco• Vanco
Cananda• Synenco
Gabon
Angola
Congo
Sudan• Unity
Sudan• Block 1/2/4• Block 3/7• Block 6
Iraq• Ahdeb
Oman• Block 5
Indonesia• 6 blocks
Indonesia
Thailand• Banya
Venezuela• Caracoles• Intercampo• Orimulsion
oil project
Peru• Block 1-AB/8• Block 6 and 7
Brazil• Offshore
exploration
Chad• Block H risk
exploration
250501master.ppt
20
The Majors dominate market capitalization, butNational Oil Companies hold the reserves
*Market cap as of start-Sept 2007; Statoil-Hydro = Statoil + Hydro estimate
Source: Bloomberg; PIW Ranking; J.S. Herold; Reuters
29
30
32
33
36
37
38
40
42
44
50
68
78
92
100
109
128
128
154
163
203
250
258
260
420
Marathon
ExxonMobilPetroChinaGazpromShellBP
Devon
TotalChevronPetrobrasENI
ConocoPhillipsSinopecRosneft
Statoil-HydroLukoilSurgutneftegasONGC
BGRepsol YPFCNOOC OccidentalEncanaSuncorImperial Oil
7,600EniEGPC
306,200Saudi Aramco300,241NIOC
136,175Gazprom134,293INOC
128,178QP111,078KPC105,959PDV
78,293Adnoc40,944Libya NOC40,637NNPC38,476Sonatrach
25,852Petronas22,380Exxon Mobil20,476Lukoil20,277PetroChina17,616BP16,181Pemex11,985Shell11,906Chevron11,813
6,705
9,617Surgutneftegas 9,900
PetrobrasTotal
11,74310,717
Rosneft
ConocoPhillips
Oil & Gas Proved Reserves, 2005Billion boe
Market Capitalization*USD billions
Major
NOC
Mid-size integrated
Independent
2. Resource nationalism
250501master.ppt
21
European gas market is becoming increasingly morevulnerable
Source: McKinsey Global Gas Model; Wood Mackenzie
Full Cost$/mmbtu
CapacityBcm
3 countries (Norway, Russia and Algeria) represent the bulk ofimports into Europe and maintaining the contractual link between gasand oil prices is the simplest way to ensure continued market conduct
Indigenous & Norway
Piped: Other
0 100 150 250 300 350 400 45050 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
0
1,0
1,5
4,02
200
4,5
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
0,5
5,0
5,5
3
Piped: Russia & FSU
LNG
Europe contract price at30USD/bbl oil
Russia
Russia’s position on the supply curve enables it to manage capacityadds and manage pricing into Europe
Additional ME LNG @cost / US parity?
Europe contract gasprice at 40USD/bbl oil
Algeria Norway Algeria
Supply cost curve, Europe Example
250501master.ppt
22
GCC nations see the conditions for regional development
• The expected oil ‘windfall’ of USD1.2–2.0 trillion over the next 5 yearsrepresents an opportunity for the region to make the necessarychanges to fill the growth gap
• Origins of boom are different this time – Both 1973–74 and 1979–81were supply shocks while this is a demand shock. Higher prices maylast longer
• Early signs suggest governments are more wisely spending surplus.Modest domestic spending increases have been accompanied by debtreduction and targeted investment
• Stronger financial institutions (banks/stock markets) more efficientlydistribute money
• Intraregional investment is growing rather than pure overseas portfolioinvestment as in past
• Furthermore, a new group of leaders with more progressive visions areentering power
250501master.ppt
23
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US(HenryHub)
UK(NBP)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
MiddleEast
Many industries are becoming attractive for GCC
Natural gas pricesUSD/MMBtu
GCC
Source: Platts; Bloomberg; Tecnon; IFDC; Broker reports; SRI; CMAI; WM; J.F. King; Factiva; team analysis
Increased spread in natural gas pricesbetween the GCC and the Western world…
GCC
Rest of World
…is fuelling the GCC region’s share of natural gas and energyintensive industries
6.9 93.1 34Aluminium
8.2 91.8 117Ethylene
8.8 91.2 71Polyethylene
2.3 97.7
99.4 1,130Steel
100% =
Propylene
4.0 96.0 28Styrene
0.6
76
36.9 63.1 9
32.3 67.7 29
29.8 70.2 21
25.1 74.9 16
22.2 77.8 6
2.9 97.1 420
100% =
Current capacity, 2006 Announced capacity
AverageGCC share
24.9mtpa mtpa
5.1
…is fuelling the GCC region’s share of natural gas and energyintensive industries
Percent
250501master.ppt
24
453525155Styrene (E)
Benzene (E)
7
>10
4
3
6
5
2
1
9080706050403020 130120110100100PE (N)Steel (N)
1251151059585
Aluminum (N)
6555
Ammonia/urea (N)Chlorine (N)Ammonia/urea (E)
PE (E)
Ethylene (N)Chlorine (E)PG, commercial, small ind. (E/N)Ethylene (E)Propylene (N)Aluminum (E)Steel (E)
Benzene (N)Styrene (N)
Propylene (E)
75
Many energy intensive industries will be competitive in the GCC…even atsignificantly higher gas prices
ESTIMATES
Gas demandsegments
Note: Based on global (US) gas price of USD 5.0 /MMBtu. (E) indicates existing facility, (N) indicates new, planned capacity* For ethylene, a weighted-average price by process economics used was calculated; for other industries, the price is based
on the most likely process for new capacity** Divide by 10 to get a rough approximation of the Bcf/day equivalent
Source: Tecnon; IFDC; broker reports; interviews; SRI; CMAI; BP Energy Statistics; Pelig; WM; J.F. King; team analysis
Current gas price 0.75 USD/MMBtu
GasvolumeBcm/yr**
Maximum gas price for different end users, Real 2005*USD/MMBtu
SAUDI EXAMPLE
Price ceiling set byQatar LNG exportparity prices of USD~2.8 /MMBtu
Gas price 1.5–2.0 USD/MMBtu
Demand/supply in Saudi Arabia, 2015
250501master.ppt
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
Carbon price will need to fit within a “funnel”
CO2 price$/t
Year
Floor driven by• Need for
investmentincentives
• Marketviabilityconcerns
Ceiling driven by• International
competitiveness• Consumer
acceptability• Marginal social
cost of carbon
Wind
Explicit carbon price
Solar
Ceiling
Floor
Longer term CO2price driven byeconomics ofsupply anddemand, andfiscal regime
*Solar costs reflect combination of rooftop PV and CSP costs, weighted average across regions. Windcost is onshore weighted average across regions
Where cost of abatement technology isgreater than the carbon price, there is a needfor transition incentives to drive investment
3. The carbon agenda
250501master.ppt
26
Marginal cost of abatement may be ~ 40/t in 2030
0 1 10 11 12 13 22 23 2415 16 17 18 192 20 21
10
20
30
40
26 273 4 5 146 7 258 9
0
-10
-100
-110
-120
-130
-140
-150
-160
-20
-30
-40
-50
-70
-80
-90
-60
Cost of abatement/tCO2e*
Insulation improvements
Fuel efficientcommercialvehicles
Lighting systems
Air Conditioning
Water heatingFuel efficient vehicles
Sugarcanebiofuel
Nuclear
Livestock/soils
Forestation
Industrialnon-CO2
CCS EOR;New coal
Industrial feedstock substitution
Wind;lowpen.
Forestation
Celluloseethanol CCS;
new coal
Soil
Avoided deforestation
America
Industrial motorsystems
Coal-to-gas shiftCCS;
coalretrofit
Waste
Industrial CCS
AbatementGtCO2e/year
Avoid de-forestationAsia
Stand-by losses
Co-firingbiomass
Smart transitSmall hydro
Industrial non-CO2
Airplane efficiency
Solar
2030
* Exchange rate taken as 0.80 /USD
Source: McKinsey/Vattenfall
Abatement needed to hit
550ppm by 2100
Abatementneeded tohit 500ppm
by 2100
250501master.ppt
27
Oilfield technologies have driven massive economic improvements forthe industry…
Finding and development cost, 1996 dollars per barrel,
offshore United States*
* Similar results were reported for the onshore U.S.
Note: F&D costs are calculated as exploration and development expenditures over 3 years, divided by additions to oil reserves over the same time
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996
Lower cyclical costs: 20%
Cost position 1981
Technology based: 80%
Technology improvements:
• Horizontal drilling
• Coiled tubing
• 3D seismic
• Improved reservoirsimulation
4. Technology development in the petroleum industry
250501master.ppt
28
…as well as unlocked key growth ‘mega trends’ accounting for80% of global production growth since 1985
Global oil and gas production, million BOE daily
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
'85
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy; team analysis
MegatrendTotal
‘1985 conventional oil & gasproduction’
x CAGR ‘85-’04 percent
2.0
3.124.2
4.8
xAbsolute increase ‘85-’04M BOE / day
2New basins(mainly Norway)
4.6
4Deep water(US GoM, West Africa)
3.6
1Middle East (+ EOR)(mainly Saudi Arabia)
17.0
5LNG(APAC, North Africa)
2.9
3Piped gas to Europe(Russia, UK, Norway)
3.96.7
10.0
ESTIMATE
250501master.ppt
29
The pace of innovation in Petroleum has been slow relativeto that in other industries
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
E&P industry(15 tech. Cases)
ADSL (broadbandtelecom)
Medicine (Merck-average)
Consumerproducts(US average)
Time (years)
Average duration of the four phases in different industries
• Idea toprototype
• Prototype tofield test
• Field test tocommercial
• Commercial to50% penetration
Source: Industry journals, interviews
250501master.ppt
30
An industry-wide shortage of talent may bottleneck growth
* AAPG membership
Source: AAPG, SEG, SPE
. . . and the industry is aging
Average age of technical professionals
The number of geoscientists is falling. . .
39
49
37
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2000
AAPG SPE
AAPG SPE
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1975
1979
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
under 30
31-55
56 plus
. . . but few since then
Active petroleum geoscientists*
Many people entered during the boom in the 1980s. . .
US petroleum engineer degrees Oil Price, 2000$/bbl
250501master.ppt
31
Yet the need for world-class engineering have never been greater
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125%
Agbami
Escravos GTL
Shah Deniz
Tengiz
Dalia
Girassol
BTC pipelineKizomba B
Kizomba AXikomba
Clair
Mad Dog
Cost deviance
Schedule deviance
Na Kika
Bonga Main
Goldeneye
Sakhalin
Kashagan
Source: Media clippings; Market intelligence
Many of the world’s largest oil projects exhibit cost and schedule overruns
250501master.ppt
32
Key questions
For developing nations For resource holders
For engineersFor developed nations
• Where are the next set of breakthroughs?– Arctic oil and gas– Unconventional gas– Seismic imaging– Ultra-deep water
• How can the industry accelerate technologydevelopment and deployment?
• How can Western companies use theirtechnology edge for competitive advantage?
• Will China’s (and India’s) quest for oil lead tointernational competition with American andEuropean nations?
• What geo-political alliance are likely to form?
• What may be China’s response to CO2 given itsneed to sustain manufacturing growth?
• What will be the impact on US companies relianton a Chinese manufacturing base?
• What economic incentives (or carbon tax) areneeded to drive a ‘step change’ in energyefficiency across sectors?
• How willing are consumers to pay a carbontax?
• Which alternative energy sources are scalablewithin the 2030 timeframe?
• How will resource rich nations exert their new-found power in consuming markets? Will theyseek greater presence in markets in exchangefor energy supply?
• How will the GCC invest their multi trillion-dollar oil surplus in the coming decade? Willthey seek to develop the Middle East as amajor manufacturing base?
250501master.ppt
33
What are the key learnings?
• We are entering a challenging period for energy, where we will faceincreasing competition to access limited suppliers
• There are no easy answers to this dilemma, as we will need to pursueboth new hydrocarbon sources and alternative sources of energy
• Emerging markets have explicit GDP growth agendas tied to security ofhydrocarbon supplies – likely to continue regardless of developed worldpolicies
• Energy efficiency and demand management matters – in the past and inthe future, but the trick is how to incentivise real changes in consumerdemand
• Engineering and technology will be a key lever to maintaining ourcompetitiveness in the future, but we start from a talent deficit today