presentation: universal broadband: targeting investments to deliver broadband services to all...
TRANSCRIPT
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8/8/2019 Presentation: Universal Broadband: Targeting Investments to Deliver Broadband Services to All Americans
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Presentationby
Blair
LevinAspenInstituteCommunicationsandSocietyProgram
KnightCommissionAnniversarySymposium
TheNewseum,Sept.29,2010
Watchatwww.knightcomm.org
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TodaysAgenda
Vision
for
Broadband
Policy
Path
for
Universal
Service
Program
to
Serve
thatVision
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toenhance
accessand
capacitytouse
thenew
tools
of
knowledgeand
exchange
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TwoCoreTasks
DemocratizingEssentialToolsofProductivity
andCitizenship
Rethinking
Processes
to
Take
Advantage
of
ThoseToolstoImproveOurSociety
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AQuickLookBackAt
Technologyand
Progress
FromFirstCentury
to1500,populationandGDPincreaseat
constantrate
around
world(Malthusian
Trap) Then,somethinghappenedthatgot
usout
of
the
trap.
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TheIndustrialRevolution
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TwoDifferentIdeasfor
AdvancingTechnology
Ideaof
Pre
Industrial
RevolutionEngland
Inventingtheprovinceof
all Gaveinventorsthe
legallysanctionedrighttoexploittheirideasinexchange
for
making
the
inventionpublic(1624)
Ideaof
Pre
Industrial
RevolutionFrance
Inventingprovidenceof
thewealthy
Stategaveinventors
pensionsandprizes
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OneConsequence:
EnglishPer
Capita
GDP
Growth
243%
GreaterThanFrance
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AnotherConsequence:
ConstantInnovation
and
Growth
Addingthefuelofinteresttothefireofgenius (Lincoln)
alsoledtopatternof
inventionever
continuing
Unlikeearlier
technology
developmentsinChina,
IslamicGoldenAge
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Andintodayseconomy..
Everyoneisbecomingaknowledgeworker
Criticalfactorforsuccessistheprocessofknowledgeexchange
Knowledgeexchangeisdrivenbytheinterplayofnetworks,devicesandapplicationsasutilizedbypeople
Democratizationofknowledgeexchangeisfoundationforconstantinnovation,broadeconomicgrowthandhealthycommunities
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Arewethereyet?
No,butnotforlackof
tools..Thefutureishere.It's
justnotwidelydistributedyet.
WilliamGibson
Andsecond,
thinking
isnothere
dj vu allover
again
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TheFactory1910
Threedecades
after
central
electricity,
same
design
and
sameprocessesaswithfactoriespoweredbywater
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WhyDidItTakeSoLong?
DiffusionLag40YearstoGetto50%
SunkCost
OfExistingFactories
SunkThought
Expertisewasinexistingtechnology
Major
productivity
gains
not
be
realized
until
whole
processrethought
Gainscamethroughspecificapplicationsbuiltonnew
technology
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RightIdeasFromHistory
Weneedbroadlydistributed
toolsand
incentives
Rethinkingprocessesiskey
torealizing
gains
Buttheres
aproblem
whenwegetto
broadband
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TheMostPrevalentIdeain
BroadbandPolicy
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Theprimary
metric
for
judging
the
vision
ofanationsbroadbandpolicyisthespeed
ofthewireline networkthatreachesthe
mostrural
of
residents
TheMostPrevalentIdeain
BroadbandPolicy
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Itstime..
todrive
astake
through
that
idea
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ManyBadSeeds
Theprimary
metric for
judging
the
vision
ofanationsbroadbandpolicyisthespeed
ofthewireline network thatreachesthe
mostrural of
residents
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SummaryofBadandGoodIdeas
GoodideasBadIdeas
Ecosystem
Use/People
MobileandFixed
Right
sized
to
all
geographies
Rightsizedtoall
marketsegments
PrimaryMetric
Speed/Networks
Wireline
Rural
Residents
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BadSeed1
BadIdea GoodIdea
Focuson
primary
metric Focus
on
interplay
of
inputsandoutputs
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ThoughtExperiment
Whichwouldweprefer?
Greathammersbut
no
nails
or
blueprint
Greatnailsbutnohammerorblueprint
Greatblueprintbutnohammerornails
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ThoughtExperiment
Answer:
None. Allleadtodisaster.
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WeNeedPoliciesthatDriveEachElement
to
Continually
Improve
Leadsto
Better,Faster
Networks
Improvecasefordeployment
andupgradesthroughpolicies
suchas
lowering
costs
of
inputs
Leadstomore
compelling
Applicationsandtherefore
greater
adoptionand
willingnessto
spend
Leadsto
MoreRobust
Devices
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BadSeed2
BadIdea GoodIdea
Its
about
one
input
speed
Speed
matters
but
its
abouttheoutput;theway
peopleusespeedtodo
things
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Speedisnottheonlycriticalcharacteristic
Nonreal
time Real
time
Typical
applications:
Email
Webbrowsing
SDand
HD
video
download
Streamedvideoandmusic
VOIP(+video)orteleconference
IPTV
2wayvideogaming
Primary
performancedrivers:
Throughput Downloadand
Uploadspeeds
Availability/reliability
Throughput Downloadand
Uploadspeeds
Availability/reliability
Latency
Packetloss
Jitter
Speed primarily determines
userexperience
Bothspeed andquality
determineuser
experience
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Whereisthegreatestpotentialforimpact:
Applicationsforallorincreasedspeedforafew?
In
BillionsofDollars
Incrementalbenefitoffixed
speedstoresidentialareas
beyondcurrentaverage
unknown
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ButWeKnowBetterApplicationsCanDriveSavingsinHealthCare
Possiblesavings
from
implementationofelectronic
healthrecordsover15years
Possiblesavings
from
implementationofremote
monitoringover25years
$700B
in
potential
net
savings
over
1525
years
TotalPhysician
practicesHospitals
In
BillionsofD
ollars
TotalSkin
diseasePulmonary
diseaseDia
betesHeart
disease
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WeKnowBetterApplicationsCanDriveSavingsand
ImprovedEducationandJobTraining
Comparisonofresultsbetweentraditional
andhybridinstructionmodels(percentage)
ComparisonofAdvancedPlacement
scoresatFloridaVirtualSchoolandunder
traditionalinstructionalmodels
AdvancedPlacement
scores
(scale
of
15)
HybridTraditional
Completion
99%
41%
Effort/Hours
50%
100%
Outcomes
85%84%
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WeKnowBetterApplicationscanDriveSavings
andImprovedGovernmentServices
Comparisonof
costsofprocessing
taxreturns(Dollarsperuser)
Comparisonoftaxfilers
byhandv.Efile
(Percentage)
42%
Electronic
58%
Paper$333M
insavings
over
5years$0.35
$2.87
PaperElectronic
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BadSeed3
BadIdea GoodIdea
Its
about
wired
Its
about
both
mobile
and
fixed
Newmobiledevicesareenablingconvergenceof
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New mobile devices are enabling convergence of
basicfixedandmobileapplicationprofiles
Utility
Emerging
multimedia
Advanced
Fullmedia
Voice
Email
Onewaybrowsing
Kindleaccessing
ebooks
Basicsmartphones
accessingnews
High
Twowaybrowsing
Contentstreaming
anddownload
Smartphone
accessinglibraryto
upload/download
photos
Medium
SDvideostreaming
Interactive
gaming
orphysical
commands
iPhone enabling
voicerecognition
forperson
with
disabilityLow
P2PorHD
streaming
2wayHDvideo
teleconferencing
Minimumtoday,
butemerging(e.g.
Videoconferencing) Minimal
Exampleuses Application
and
device
example Similarity
tofixed
Smartphones sales to overtake standard phones
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Smartphones salestoovertakestandardphones
by2011
M bil t d i d i d 5
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Mobiletoexceedwiredaccessinunder5years
Most Important:
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MostImportant:
Wirelessas
Horizon
Industry
Economysuffering
fromdemandshock
Wirelessgenerating
newdemandinand
of
itself Wirelessgenerating
newdemandin
everyother
industry
Andweaint seen
nothingyet.
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BadIdea4
BadIdea GoodIdea
Its
about
rural
Its
about
right
sized
to
all
areas
Justifications for Rural Focused Policy logically
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JustificationsforRuralFocusedPolicylogically
leadtogreateremphasisonnonruralneeds
SocialJusticeEconomic
Argument
leads
to
higher
prioritytoadoption(90
million)thanunserved (15
25million)
Argument
leads
to
higher
prioritytohigherspeedsto
strategicdriverswhichare
generallynonrural
Particularly given how the cost of digital exclusion is large and growing
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Particularlygivenhowthecostofdigitalexclusionislargeandgrowing
In2005,77%ofFortune500Companiesdidnotgive
jobseekerstheoptionofrespondingofflineto
positionspostedonthecorporatecareerswebsite1
Gettingajobismoredifficult without
accesstoonlinepostingsandthe
abilitytosubmitapplicationsonline
~65%of
teens
go
online
at
home
to
complete
Internetrelatedhomeworkand71%ofteenssaythe
Internetwastheirprimarysourceforinformationfor
completingarecentschoolproject2
Studentswithout
broadband
connectionslackaccesstothesame
levelofinformation astheirconnected
peers
40%ofAmericanssaytheygetmostoftheirnews
fromthe
Internet
(more
than
those
who
cite
newspapers);theWallStreetJournalisthreeinches
narrowertodaythanitwasin20043
Nonadoptershaveincreasingly
limitedresources
to
gather
current
eventsinformation
61%ofAmericanadultshavesearchedforhealth
informationonline;ofthose60%saytheonline
informationaffected
adecision
about
treating
an
illnessorcondition4
Findingmedicalinformationwithout
accesstoonlinehealthsourceslimits
patients knowledge,choices
and
care
Studyofcarbuyersshowedthatthosewhouse
onlinereferralservicesandgetpriceinformation
onlinepaylessthanthosewhodonot5
Consumerswhocomparisonshopin
brickandmortarstorespaymorefor
goods&services thanthosewho
comparisonshop
online
Employment
Education
News
Healthcare
Consumer
welfare
Marketdata Implication
for
non
adopters
Equity Argument Ignores
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EquityArgumentIgnores
Historyand
Economics
Equality
argument
not
true
for
any
other
infrastructure
Baselinepower,transportation,water
capabilitiesprovided
to
rural;
not
equal
capabilities
Broadbandisdifferentfromvoice,asthereisa
rangeofqualities
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BadSeed5
BadIdea GoodIdea
Its
about
the
residential
market
Its
about
leading
in
strategicmarkets
Question:
Whatwouldimprovesocietymore:
100Meverywhere
or
Gigs
to
strategic
institutionsandbaselinebroadband
everywhere?
U S Last in Ranking in Improvement in
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U.S.LastinRankinginImprovementin
Innovation
Capability
(1999
2009) 21Sweden10.7
22France10.6
23Portugal10.1
24
Malta
9.9
25Belgium9.5
26EU25**9.4
27Poland9.4
28UK9.0
29
EU
15
8.5
30Mexico8.0
31Netherlands7.9
32Australia7.4
33Finland7.3
34Canada
6.3
35Germany6.3
36Italy5.2
37NAFTA*5.1
38Greece5.1
39Brazil
3.7
40U.S.2.7
1China19.5
2Singapore19.0
3Lithuania14.8
4Estonia
18.1
5Denmark17.4
6Luxembourg16.9
7Slovenia`16.7
8Russia15.2
9Cyprus
14.7
10Japan14.4
11Hungary14.3
12Slovakia14.1
13CzechRepublic13.8
14India
13.6
15Latvia13.4
16Austria13.2
17S.Korea13.2
18Ireland12.9
19EU
10**
12.8
20Spain10.8
Some Consequences of Bad Ideas
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SomeConsequencesofBadIdeas
Policyserves
wired
companies,
not
consumer
choice
or
newneeds
Policyserveshistory(wiredvoice),notmarkets
(movingto
wireless
data),
or
the
future
(innovation
ecosystem)
Wefocusonwrongissues(nonstrategicspeed)and
ignore
opportunities
(applications
in
public
data;
rethinkingprocesses)
Weneverreexamineprioritiesandfallbehindcompetitors
Wemake
wasteful
investments;
dont
make
wise
ones
$17,000perlineperyeartohomesthatdontwantfiberconnectionbutwantmobile
Wefundmultiplewirelesscompetitorsinsomeareas,butdonotfundinhigh
costwireless
areas
Stillnonationalinteroperablewirelesspublicsafetynetwork
Ri h Id f P li F k
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RightIdeasforPolicyFramework
Righttoolsandincentivesbroadlydistributed
Democratizationofknowledgeexchange
Rethinkingprocessesinlightofnew
communicationsplatform
should
be
highest
priority,notafterthought
Killerapplicationsdrivenetworkdemand
Governmenthasleversthatdrivekillerapplications
Todays Programmatic Agenda:
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Today sProgrammaticAgenda:
DemocratizationofKnowledgeExchange
Marketwillnotgettoolseverywheresociety
needsthem
Ashasbeentrueofallessentialinfrastructure
2010totalprojectedfederaloutlaystosupportUniversalService
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$2.7 billion in
subsidies to
connect schools
and libraries
$1.2 billion in
discounts for
basic telephone
service for low-
income persons
$214 million in
subsidies for
rural health care
communications
$4.6 billion for
network
deployment to
high-cost areas
Includesmoneyformultiplewirelesscompaniesbutnot
unserved wirelessareas
Mostofthismoneydoesnotgotounserved
areas
Nomoneyfordigital
literacy
CurrentProgramGetsVeryFastNetworkstoSome
b t L Milli U d
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butLeavesMillionsUnserved
Thesmallest
rural
ILECs2 are
upgrading
theirplanttobringbroadbandtorural
consumers...
Percentshareofruralcooptelco linesthat
havebeenupgradedtoofferselectspeeds
ofinternetaccess3
AT&T,Verizon
andQwest5
*
Ownedby
others
Eventhough
most
non
upgraded
accesslinesareownedbythose
threecompanies
PercentoftotalU.S.accesslinesnot
upgradedtoofferbroadband
*
* *
* *
*
*
* *
*
+17pct
pts
*
200kbps
(incremental)
Andreceive
more
high
cost
supportthanAT&T,Verizonand
Qwest...
PercentshareoftotalUSFhighcost
supportforILEClines,20084
Ownedby
others
*
AT&T.Verizon
andQwest5
Inaddition,thefundfacessystemic,structuralproblems
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Drivingahigher
USF
contribution
factor
(Percentage)
*
*
*
*
*
* * ** ** * *
*
*
*
*
*CAGR
*
**1High
cost
fund
has
been
rapidlygrowing
($,billions)
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Contribution
factorhasmore
thandoubled
since2000
Asdemandforfundinggrows,andtherevenuebasesubjecttoassessmentshrinks,
consumersand
businesses
will
face
higher
contribution
factors
in
the
future
Whileassessable
revenue
base
declines
($,billions)
A d th t b i b k t
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InsertTitlePage
BlairLevinSeptember,2010
(presentationin
beta
and
always
will
be)
Andthatbringsusbackto
Howdo
we
have
asystem
thatservestodayspriorities
andnottheinertiaofhistory?
Top Priority: Unserved Areas
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TopPriority:UnservedAreas
AdditionalTasksForHealthy
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Ecosystem
Parameters for Support: 4 down/1 Up
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ParametersforSupport:4down/1Up
Actual
Download
Speeds
Necessary
to
Run
Concurrent
Applications
(Mbps)
TargetisGreaterthanwhatMostAmericansReceiveToday
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0
5
10
15
20
25%
256K
2
500K
5
768K
8
1M
5
2M
18
3M
15
4M
7
5M
9
6M
7
7M
5
8M
4
9M
4
10M
3
10M
+
9
Utility
Percentof
subscribers
by
ACTUAL
top
speed
received
Emerging
multimediaFullmedia Advanced
~50%ofU.S.consumersreceivelessthan3.0Mbps
TargetWouldPutUSatLeadingEdgeofUniversalization
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Country
Universal
availabilitytarget
(download)
Typeofspeed Date
UnitedStates 4Mbps Actual 2020
Rep.ofKorea 1Mbps(99%) Actual 2008
Finland 1Mbps Actual 2009
Australia 0.5Mbps Unspecified 2010
Denmark .5Mbps Unspecified 2010
Ireland 1Mbps Unspecified 2010
France 0.5Mbps Unspecified 2010
Germany 1Mbps Unspecified 2010
UnitedKingdom 2Mbps Unspecified 2012
Australia 12Mbps Unspecified 2018
Next: Sizing Unserved
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Next:SizingUnserved
Availabilityof4MbpsCapableBroadbandNetworksintheUnitedStates
byCounty7MillionHomesWithoutAccess
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y y
Next: Private Investment Gap Analysis
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Next:PrivateInvestmentGapAnalysis
CashFlowsAssociatedWithBroadbandAvailabilityGap
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Averysmallnumbersofhomesdrivesahuge
t f th t
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percentageofthecosts.
BroadbandAvailabilityGap,bypercentofU.S.housingunitsserved(Billionsofdollars)
TheBroadbandInvestmentGap
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Numberof
U.S.
homes
without
access
to
terrestrial
broadband
and projected
10yearinvestmentgaptoconnectthemtoterrestrialbroadband.
Majorityofgap($13.4billion)iscausedbyfinal250,000homes.
Other Needed Uses
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OtherNeededUses
Next: Potential Source of Funds
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Next:PotentialSourceofFunds
Potential Shift ofFunds
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PotentialShiftofFundsUniversal
Service
Fund
disbursements
that
can
be
retargetedtouniversalbroadband.
Implement
merger
conditions
for
eligible
telecommunicationscarriers(Verizon,Sprint)
PhaseoutInterstateAccessSupport(IAS)subsidy
FreezeInterstate
Common
Line
Support
(ICLS)
PhaseoutremaininglegacyHighCostsupportfor
competitiveeligibletelecommunicationscarriers(ETCs)
$4billion
$4Billion
$1.8Billion
$4.8Billion
$15.6billionTotalsavedover10yearperiod
DistributionPrinciples
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DistributionMethod
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CriticismWelcome
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Thisplanisinbetaandalwayswillbe.
NationalBroadbandPlan
Chapter17
Implementationand
Benchmarks
Tablestakesforcritics:
Mustanswer4
questions
Whatisminimumspeed
eligiblefor
subsidy?
Howmuchwillitcost?
Howwillwepayforit?
And
FourthQuestion
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Q
Bywhatprincipleofeconomicsorjusticedo
wechargeapoorurbanfamilythatcant
afford1.5MDSLservice$5amonthtosubsidize100Mfibertoaruralsecondhome
tothetuneof$17,000ayear?
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