presentation_seminar_4214

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Welcome to second seminar presentation

Presented By

Aparna BarmanRoll.: 4214

Session: 2013-2014Registration No.: Ha-2156

Session: 2009-2010Department of Fisheries, University of Dhaka

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Introduction Objective Methods Results Discussion Conclusions

Outline of presentation

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The world’s fisheries provide -more than 2.6 billion people with at least 20% of their average annual per capita protein

intake.

The planet’s climate changes have significant impacts on populations, species and ecosystems, with profound consequences for fisheries change.

Introduction

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Introduction

Impact of climate change on fisheries:

Climatic variable Impacts Potential outcome for fisheries

Sea level rise Loss of coastal habitat and saline intrusion Reduced production

Higher water temperature

• Changes in physiology and sex ratio

• Alter timing of spawning and migration

Changes in timing and levels of productivity

Reduced water flow and increased drought

Changes in lake water level and dry water flow in rivers Reduced productivity

Ocean acidification Negative effects on calcareous animals Decline in production

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Predicting the impacts on people would require an understanding of the social and economic dynamics of fishing fleets and fishing communities, and their capacity to adapt.

Coastal fishers in Bangladesh face - • increased frequency and severity of hurricanes • greater penetration of saline water into coastal land

(Unnikrishnan et al. 2006).To guide investments and initiatives to mitigation and

adaptation, policy makers urgently require information. To date, global and regional climate vulnerability

assessments have focused on agricultural production (Fischer et al. 2005; Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007; Tubiello et al. 2007).

IntroductionIntroduction

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To compare the relative vulnerability of national economies to potential climate change impacts on fisheries at a global scale.

Objective

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Indicator based composite vulnerability index approach. Based on secondary data. Three key elements -

Exposure (E): Physical effects.Sensitivity (S): Dependence of national economy.Adaptive capacity (AC): Capacity to adapt.

`Criteria for selecting indicators -data availability the availability of recent data and the degree of direct relevance to the phenomenon.

Methods > Composite index approach > Exposure indicators > Sensitivity indicators > Adaptive capacity indicators > Vulnerability index > Standardizing indices

Methods

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Exposure indicatorProjected mean surface temperature (°C at 1.5m altitude) by 2050.


Methods

Interpretation Variable

Composite index of employment and economic dependence on the fisheries sector

Number of fishers (most recent years 1990-1996)

Fisheries export value as proportion (%) of total export value (averaged over 1998-2001)

Proportion (%) of economically active population (1990) involved in the fishery sector

Total fisheries landings (tonnes, averaged over 1998-2001)

Index of nutritional dependence

Fish protein as proportion of all animal protein (% g/person/day, averaged over 1998-2001)

Sensitivity indicators

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Adaptive Capacity indicators:


Interpretation Variable

Health Healthy life expectancy (years, 2000)

Education

Literacy rates (% of people ≥ 15 years,2000–2001)School enrolment ratios (% in primary,secondary and tertiary education,2000–2001)

Governance (2000-2001)Political stability Government effectivenessRegulatory QualityRule of law

Size of economy Total GDP (2000)

Methods

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Vulnerability Index The attributes of vulnerability is the combined effect of

exposure (E), sensitivity (S) and adaptive capacity (AC).

Exposure (E) + Sensitivity (S) = Potential impact (PI) Potential impacts may be offset, reduced or modified by

adaptive capacity (AC).

Vulnerability (V) = PI – AC


Methods

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Standardizing indices: Resulting values of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and

vulnerability were standardized. Scaled to range from 0 to 1. Categorized based on the quartiles.


Methods

Quartile CategoryFirst quartile Very lowSecond quartile LowThird quartile ModerateFourth quartile High

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Exposure:

Results > Exposure > Sensitivity > Adaptive capacity > Vulnerability

Results

Figure 1: Exposure to climate change.

Exposure will be greatest in northern part of Asia, Europe, North America and south America.

Smaller increase of temperature - Australasia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, western Europe, parts of sub-Saharan Africa and southern South America.

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Sensitivity:


Most sensitive countries were found in Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe. Nations identified as highly sensitive on fisheries included 7 LDCs (Bangladesh,

Cambodia, DR Congo, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda).

Results

Figure 2: Sensitivity of national economics

Four strongly sensitive nations are- Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ghana and Vietnam.

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Adaptive Capacity:


Results

Figure 3: Adaptive capacity of national economics

Countries with low adaptive capacity were in Asia and Africa.

Africa - Saharan and sub-Saharan Countries.

Tropical Asia - Pakistan, Bangladesh, Laos PDR and Nepal.

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Vulnerability:


Results

Figure 4: Vulnerability of national economics

The regions most vulnerable to climate induced changes in fisheries are in Africa, north western South America and Asia.

Higher latitude countries are Russia and Ukraine.

In Asia Bangladesh, Pakistan, Yemen and Cambodia are most vulnerable.

17Results > Exposure > Sensitivity > Adaptive capacity > Vulnerability

Figure 5: Venn diagram of the distribution of highly vulnerable countries grouped according to LDCs, SIDS and African nations.

32 highly vulnerable countries

Half of the highly vulnerable countries (16) – Africa’s LDCs and one SIDS.

18 LDCs (African country 15, SIDS 1)

Results

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This study is the first which identified vulnerable to future climate change impacts on the fisheries sector.

The high vulnerable regions reflects different combinations of climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.

Regional assessment has showed that- fishery production in both continental and marine waters is closely tied to climatic variation.

West Coast Sahelian and sub-Saharan countries - have large coastal populationsrely upon exploitation of rich marine upwelling fisherieslandings are largely driven by irregular low frequency oscillation in

oceanic and atmospheric climate conditions.

Discussion

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In the deeper Rift Valley lakesincreases in surface water temperature reduced primary productivity and reduced fish catch rate over the last century (O’Reilly et al. 2003).

Vulnerable Asian countries face combinations of three issues: high fisheries dependenceheavily exploited marine ecosystems and high exposure of major riverine and coastal fisheries to climate change.

Southeast Asian coral reef fisheries are heavily at risk from coral bleaching induced by climate change (Bryant et al. 1998; Warren-Rhodes et al. 2003; Newton et al. 2007).

Discussion

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Research limitation This study has provided a framework for assessing fisheries

vulnerability to climate change but there is clearly room to refine this approach as better indicators and models become available.

Discussion

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The most vulnerable countries are-The poorest (contribute only 2.3% of global GDP)Least Developed countriesDependent upon fish for food (27% of dietary protein)Produce 20% of global fishery export.

The vulnerability of the economics affect their food security and levels of poverty by elevating stress on fisheries production.

Building adaptive capacity is necessary for countries where climate change impact whether positively or negatively.

Conclusions

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Thank You

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