presented by: chris noble, ron mahabir, jared silk & drake daughdrill ggs 684—select topics in...
TRANSCRIPT
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Presented by:
Chris Noble, Ron Mahabir, Jared Silk & Drake Daughdrill
GGS 684—Select Topics in Geospatial Intelligence
SOUTH AMERICA
2025
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Overview
South America 390 million population 19 countries
Major exports:
▪ petroleum, coffee, copper, bauxite, fish meal, and oilseed
Key issues: Demographics Forestry Energy Crime, corruption,
and narcotics
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Demographics
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Demographics
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Chile Paraguay
Bolivia
Colombia
Venezuela
Ecuador
Peru
Guyana
Suriname FrenchGuiana
White
Mestizo
Mulla to
Indian
Black
Asian
O ther
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0
20
40
60
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0
10
30
20
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Demographics
Key themes Public health (↑) Age (↑) Economics (↓) Education (↑)
Key countries Brazil (↑) Argentina (↑)
Key uncertainties
Infant mortality rate (deaths/1,000 births)
Population below poverty (percent)
Brazil
Brazil
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Forestry
Source: PLU , UndatedSource:Interweb, Undated Source: David, 2010
Key Certainties Key Uncertainties
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Distribution of World Forests
Source: Britannica 2000
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Driving Forces: 2025…
Main factors
Influenced by the pace of economic diversification and changes in land dependence.
Increasing urbanization
Increase in population
Auxiliary
Continuing global demand for wood and wood products.
Carbon sequestration
Biodiversity
Source: OWU 2010Source: Sohngen et. al. 2008
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GeoInt
Satellite imagery Datasets indicating development Distribution and number of:
Forest fires Net GDP Direct, indirect, and induced employment Forest type, age Reforestation areas Change statistics
Conservation policies and indicators of change
Investments
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Energy
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Energy Resources in South America Oil (O)
Venezuela - 2.5 million bbl/day (2.2)
Ecuador - 0.5 million bbl/day (0.3)
Brazil - 2.6 million bbl/day (0.6)
Natural Gas (G)
Bolivia – top natural gas exporter in South America (1% of world exports)
Ethanol (E) Brazil - 2nd largest producer of
ethanol in the world at 36% (US at 53%)Source: The World Factbook 2011
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Brazil: The Next Big Oil Exporter?
Potential of huge oil reserves off shore
How much?
▪ Tupi: 10’s of billions of barrels of oil
▪ Brazil: Top 10 oil reserves in the world
▪ Increase of 40%
How long to access these reserves?
▪ Located in deep water and could take years to extract
Could there be more?
▪ Half of all of Brazil’s oil reserves have been discovered in the past 10 years
Source: Oil & Shale Gas Discovery News
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Potential Outcomes
Experiences a more rapid economic growth
Accelerates its rise as a major world player
Increases its importance in US relations
Offset our need on middle east oil
Leads to increase of crime and corruption
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Source (edited L to R): World News Review, Thomas Fortenberry blog, las tribus urbanas blog
Drugs, insurgency & crime
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Major drug routes in Lat. Am.
Source: Congressional Research Service, 2011
Trafficking via W. Africa to Europe increasing Via Mexico & Caribbean to
U.S. trend slightly increases
Cartels using more sophisticated smuggling means used jets mini-subs
Criminal & terrorist ties in U.S., Lat. Am. & N. Africa increasing
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Coca production trending up
Source: stopthedrugwar.com, 2010
Counter drug ops in Columbia provide opportunity to others
Peru & Bolivia supply trending regional to international (U.S. & N. Africa) Peru & Bolivia trend toward
Columbian level
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Geoint
Correlation of supply chains to demand curves Money Drugs Weapons Persons of interest
Datasets indicating: Violence (criminal & terrorist) Currency abnormalities (xfers, banking actions, seizures)
Distribution and number of: Arrests vs. Prosecutions (cartels, corrupt officials) Seizures (drugs, money, weapons) Coca production operations Violent crimes (drug or terrorist related)
Effects of narco “crack down” policies (U.S. & partners)
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References
BBC News: “Brazil Announces New Oil Reserves”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7086264.stm (Last updated on November 9, 2007) (Last accessed March 3, 2011)
Boston University (Undated) Pardee Center Task Force: Latin America 2060. Available online at: http://www.bu.edu/pardee/research/latin-america-2060/. (Last accessed on February 26, 2010)
Britannica (2000) Forests: Distribution of the World’s Forest. Available online at: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/media/56196/Interactive-map-showing-the-geographic-distribution-of-the-worlds-forests (Last accessed on February 24, 2010)
Central Intelligence Agency: “The World Factbook 2011”. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html (Last accessed March 2, 2011)
Congressional Research Service. “Latin American and the Caribbean: Illicit Drug Trafficking and U.S. Counterdrug Programs”. Drug routes map (image). Page 3. January 25, 2011. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41215.pdf. (Last accessed February 25, 2011)
Council on Foreign Relations: “Energy Bottlenecks in South America”. http://www.cfr.org/energy/energy-bottlenecks-south-america/p16037 (Last accessed March 3, 2011)
David, G. (2010) Deforestation. Available online at: http://www.dangerouscreation.com/2010/10/man-the-destroyer/deforestation/ (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)\
Las tribus urbanas blog. “The latin kings”. 3 Latin Kings (image). February 3, 2010. http://www.worldnewsreviews.com/world-news/europe/spanish-authorities-confiscate-the-largest-and-most-sophisticated-cocaine-lab.html. (Last accessed February 23, 2011)
FAO (2009) State of the World Forests 2009. Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Italy, Rome.
Interweb (Undated). Walpapers. Available online at: http://www.interweb.in/pc-wallpapers/18884-nature-wallpaper-2.html (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)
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References
NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council, USA, Washington, D.C.
Michael Reid. The Economist. “So near and yet so far”. GDP per PPP (map). September 9, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/16964114?Story_ID=16964114&fsrc=nlw|hig|09-09-2010|editors_highlights. (last accessed February 25, 2011)
Oil & Shale Gas Discovery News: Brazil Tupi Oil Field Information. (Image) http://oilshalegas.com/braziltupioil.html
OWU (2010) Breakfast of Biodiversity, Available online at: http://environmentalgeography.wordpress.com/2010/03/page/3/ (Last updated on March 24, 2010)
Phillip Smith. stopthedrugwar.com. “Latin America: Peru Ousts Colombia as World's Largest Coca Producer, UNODC Says”. Coca production (graph). June 24, 2010. http://stopthedrugwar.org/chronicle/2010/jun/25/latin_america_peru_ousts_colombi. (last accessed February 27, 2011)
PLU (Undated) Deforestation. Pacific Lutheran University, Available online at: http://www.plu.edu/~hoodbs/deforestation/home.html (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)
Sohngen, B., Beach, B. and Andrasko, K. (2008) Avoided Deforestation as a Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Tool: Economic Issues. Journal of Environmental Quality, 37(4), pgs 1368:1375
Thomas Fortenberry blog. “Calm the FARC Down”. Female FARC soldier (image). March 10, 2008. http://thomasfortenberry.net/?p=2023. (last accessed February 22, 2011)
Vivirlatino blog. “FARC Says Hostage Release Must Have International Witnesses”. FARC flag (image). January 8, 2009 http://vivirlatino.com/2009/01/08/farc-says-hostage-release-must-have-international-witnesses.php. (Last accessed February 23, 2011)
World News Reviews. “Spanish Authorities Confiscate The ‘Largest and Most Sophisticated’ Cocaine Lab”. Packaged cocaine seizure (image). http://www.worldnewsreviews.com/world-news/europe/spanish-authorities-confiscate-the-largest-and-most-sophisticated-cocaine-lab.html. No date. (Last accessed February 27, 2011)