Movie MathPresented by Eleanor & Amy KnieT D M T A S h o w & Te l l , 2 0 t h M a y 2 0 1 5

P r e s e n t a t i o n S u m m a r y

Terminology

Goals (what I want to know)

About the Data

Significant Film Data

Results

Internet resources (for interest)

Te r m i n o l o g y

Box Office: Revenue generated while

screening at cinemas

Production Budget: expenditure on film

production

Domestic: revenue generated within the USA

A b o u t t h e d a t a

Top 50 worldwide grosses of 2014

Captured 5 May 2015

Collected from Box Office Mojo (& Wikipedia)

Figures represented in millions of USD$

Limitation: figures rounded to millions

To p 5 0 Fi l m s

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction

2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five

Armies

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

4. Maleficent

5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay -

Part 1

6. X-Men: Days of Future Past

7. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

8. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

9. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

10. Interstellar

11. Big Hero 6

12. How to Train Your Dragon 2

13. American Sniper

14. Godzilla (2014)

15. Rio 2

16. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014)

17. The LEGO Movie

18. Lucy

19. Penguins of Madagascar

20. Edge of Tomorrow

21. Gone Girl

22. Noah

23. Night at the Museum: Secret of the

Tomb

24. The Maze Runner

25. 300: Rise of An Empire

26. 22 Jump Street

27. The Fault in our Stars

28. Divergent

29. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

30. Neighbors

31. Exodus: Gods and Kings

32. Annabelle

33. Hercules (2014)

34. RoboCop (2014)

35. Non-Stop

36. The Imitation Game

37. Dracula Untold

38. Fury (2014)

39. The Expendables 3

40. Into the Woods

41. Need for Speed

42. The Other Woman (2014)

43. The Equalizer

44. The Grand Budapest Hotel

45. Dumb and Dumber To

46. Unbroken

47. Into The Storm

48. The Monuments Men

49. Ride Along

50. Planes: Fire & Rescue

A n d t h e a w a r d g o e s t o …( T o p 3 H i g h e s t G r o s s i n g F i l m s )

#1 - Transformers: Age of Extinction

Box Office: $1.0914 bil ; Budget: $210 mil

Release Date: June 27, 2014

Rating: PG-13 (US), M (AU)

#2 - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Box Office: $955.1 mil ; Budget: $250 mil*

Release Date: December 17, 2014

Rating: PG-13 (US), M (AU)

#3 - Guardians of the Galaxy

Box Office: $774.2 mil ; Budget: $170 mil

Release Date: August 1, 2014

Rating: PG-13 (US), M (AU)

*biggest budget

R a t i o o f D o m e s t i c & O v e r s e a s B ox O ffi c e S a l e s

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

OverseasDomestic

An average of 40.6% of Total Box Office revenue is generated in the US

G o a l s

Distribution of:Film ClassificationsWorldwide box office figuresProduction budgets

Is there a relationship between:Box office & genreBox office & budgetBox office & release date

B ox O ffi c e & Fi l m C l a s s i fi c a t i o n s

G3%

PG15%

PG-1368%

R15%

US film classifications are different to AU

B ox O ffi c e D i s t r i b u t i o n

Min = $151.2

Q1 = $212.73

Median = $334.45

Q3 = $538.9

Max = $1091.4

Range = $940.20

IQR = $326.18

130-

160

160-

190

190-

220

220-

250

250-

280

280-

310

310-

340

340-

370

370-

400

430-

460

460-

490

490-

520

520-

550

610-

640

640-

670

670-

700

700-

730

730-

760

760-

790

940-

970

1090

-112

00

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Histogram of Worldwide Box Office Earnings

Worldwide Box Office (Millions US$)

Num

ber

of

Film

s

P r o d u c t i o n D i s t r i b u t i o n

0-10

10-2

0

20-3

0

30-4

0

40-5

0

50-6

0

60-7

0

70-8

0

80-9

0

90-1

00

100-

110

110-

120

120-

130

130-

140

140-

150

160-

170

170-

180

180-

190

200-

210

210-

220

240-

250

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Histogram of Production Budgets

Production Budget (Millions US$)

Num

ber

of

Film

s

Min = $6.5

Q1 = $52.5

Median = $87.5

Q3 = $133.5

Max = $250

Range = $243.50

IQR = $81

B ox O ffi c e & G e n r e

2%

2% 1% 1%

23%

15%

5%8%2%

9%

1%

1%2%

17%

3%

2%5%

1% 1% Action

Action Comedy

Action Drama

Action Horror

Action/Adventure

Animation

Comedy

Drama

Family Adventure

Fantasy

Horror

Musical

Period Action

Sci-Fi Action

Sci-Fi Adventure

Sci-Fi Thriller

Thriller

War

War Drama

Action

Sci-fi

B ox O ffi c e & B u d g e t( i n c l . o u t l i e r s )

Exponential

r = 0.7648*

R2 = 0.5849*

Moderate association

Budgets do not guarantee large box office sales

*includes outliers

B ox O ffi c e & B u d g e t( e x c l . o u t l i e r s )

Exponential

r = 0.7191

R2 = 0.5171

Moderate association

Budgets generally do not exceed $200 mil

Box office generally less than $800 mil

B ox O ffi c e & Re l e a s e D a t e

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

March

April

MayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Sept

embe

r

Octob

er

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Number of films released per month

Month Released

Num

ber

of

Film

s R

ele

ased

• Most of top 50 are PG-13 films so holiday periods are targeted

• Peak towards end of year as award season is in February (for the previous year)

B ox O ffi c e & Re l e a s e D a t e

Transformers: June ; Hobbit: Dec ; GOTG: AugAmerican summer break, Thanksgiving for big box

office films

S u m m a r y( W h a t w e ’ v e l e a r n e d )

US contribute an avg. of 40% box office revenue

Make PG/PG-13 films

Don’t expect a Zillion dollars (median is $334 mil; moderate association between box office and budget)

‘Big’ films are released in May/June, Nov/Dec

I n t e r n e t l i n k s f o r I n t e r e s t

Statista.com

Grace Randolph (YouTube) Beyond the Trailer & Movie Math videos

The Numbers

Unesco - Cinema Statistics

Boxofficequant.com – interesting article on the use of colour in trailers

BFI.org.uk

Screen Australia