presented by jenny philip, manager of economic research greater houston partnership
DESCRIPTION
Houston’s Economic Outlook. Presented by Patrick Jankowski, Vice President Research Greater Houston Partnership. Presented by Jenny Philip, Manager of Economic Research Greater Houston Partnership. The Recession and Recovery. Cliffs Notes Version. Recession and Recovery. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Presented byJenny Philip, Manager of Economic Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Houston’s Economic Outlook
Presented byPatrick Jankowski, Vice President Research
Greater Houston Partnership
The Recession and Recovery
Cliffs Notes Version
Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
% Jobs Lost 5.8% 4.5%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
% Jobs Lost 5.8% 4.5%
Jobs Recovered* 207,400 189,600
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
% Jobs Lost 5.8% 4.5%
Jobs Recovered* 207,400 189,600
% Recovered* 135.7% 162.2%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
Now you know enough to pass.
Houston vs. The Competition
24.6%
21.5%
26.7%
29.4%
35.0%
62.5%
82.0
101.5%
115.7
Philadelphia
Miami
Los Angeles
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Boston
Dallas
DC
Houston 162.2%
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’12Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
100%
Miami
Philadelphia
Los Angeles
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Boston
Dallas
DC
Houston
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’12Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
162.2%
117.0%
101.5%
82.0%
62.5%
35.0%
29.4%
26.7%
24.6%
21.5%
Detroit
Riverside
St. Louis
Phoenix
Tampa
San Diego
San Francisco
Minneapolis
Seattle
Baltimore
Houston
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’12Houston vs. Second 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
162.2%
55.1%
61.4%
55.0%
43.1%
43.5%
34.2%
31.6%
18.7%
23.1%
21.8%
In the competition among U.S. metros for job creation?
In the competition among U.S. metros for job creation?
Houston has already won the
super bowl.
So what makes Houston hot?
Us Them
Houston never had a housing bubble.
2.3 2.1 2.5 2.7
2.3 2.2 2.6
2.1 2.0
4.5
2.1
3.3 3.9
3.1
6.9
2.6 2.0 2.2
3.0 3.1
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’00
No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
* Median-priced home divided by median household income for each metro area.
No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’06
No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’00 vs ’06
2.6
3.4
2.7
5.5
2.8
3.6
4.2
4.8
1.7
7.6
2.9
4.6
8.9
6.7
8.2
3.3 3.6
1.7
3.6
8.0
1.9
2.7 2.5
3.0 2.6
2.0 2.3
3.1
1.8
4.3
2.1
3.6
4.9
2.8
6.3
2.3 2.5
1.6
3.6
6.3
No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’06 vs Q2/’12
No Housing Bubble
No zoning = lower housing costs
Market forces determine best use of resources
No Housing Bubble
– “Large metro areas with the least restrictive zoning have housing cost gaps that are 40 to 63 percentage points lower than metro areas with the most exclusionary zoning.”
– Housing Costs, Zoning, and Access to High Performing Schools, Brookings Institute, April 19, 2012
Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines?
Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines?
Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines?
We found shale in our backyard
Harris County
26 94
1,010
2,828
3,230
'08 '09 '10 '11 YTD - July '12
Source: Texas Railroad Commission
Drilling Permits Issued, Texas Eagle Ford Shale
Shale in our backyard
358 84411,986
118,075
282,721
'08 '09 '10 '11 YTD - July '12
Source: Texas Railroad Commission
Texas Eagle Ford Shale ProductionBarrels/Day
Shale in our backyard
8,400 corporate jobs added since May ’09
9,100 oil field service jobs added since Nov ’09
7,400 equipment manufacturing jobs added since Nov ’09
So where are we now?
WTI Spot Price ($/bbl )
• Wednesday close– $90.26
• One year ago– $76.40
• Three years ago– $69.34
• Average over last fifty-two weeks– $95.02
31
Forecast MonthIssued ’13 Average
Barclay’s July $115.00
Bank of America June 100.00
J.P Morgan Chase June 99.00
Deutsche Bank July 96.00
U.S. Energy Information Administration August 90.25
32
WTI Spot Price ($/bbl )
Global trade ties
Exports as a Percent of Gross Metro Product10 Most Populous U.S. Metro Areas
Metro Area ‘05 ‘10
Houston 13.9% 20.7%
Los Angeles 6.6 8.6
Miami 8.6 14.4
Philadelphia 4.3 6.6
Washington, DC 1.7 2.6
Dallas-Ft Worth 6.6 5.9
Boston 6.9 7.0
New York 5.2 6.8
Atlanta 4.5 5.5
Chicago 5.6 6.4
Global Trade Ties
Source: IHS Global Insight
Global Trade Ties
$47.4 $60.2$77.3 $83.2
$58.2
$76.9
$98.8$102.9
YTD '09 YTD '10 YTD '11 YTD '12
Exports Imports
$105.6
$137.1
$176.1$186.1
$ Value, Billions, Houston-Galveston Customs District, Through August
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Data does not include trade in services
1,500 firms in Houston’s service
sector doing business overseas
Jobs Outlook
Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
Calendar '10
Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
76,800
Calendar '10 Calendar '11
Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
76,800
84,600
Calendar '10 Calendar '11 GHP Forecast
Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
76,800
84,600 83,700
Calendar '10 Calendar '11 GHP Forecast July '11 - July '12
So where are we now?
So where are we now?
We’re cool . . .
So where are we now?
We’re cool . . . . . . and we’re popular.
Don’t take my word for it.
Houston’s Population Clock
Houston’s Population Clock
The region adds 110,000 residents each year.
65,000 via natural increase i.e., more births than deaths
45,000 via net inmigrationi.e., more people moving in than out
Houston’s Population Clock
Every 5.4 minutes a new Houstonian is born.
Houston’s Population Clock
Every 15.7 minutes a Houstonian dies.
Houston’s Population Clock
Every 21.8 minutes someone moves here from overseas.
Houston’s Population Clock
24.2 minutes someone moves here from elsewhere in the U.S.
Houston’s Population Clock
Every 4.8 minutes Houston’s population grows by one resident.
Houston’s Population Clock
In the hour you’ve spent in this meeting, Houston has added another dozen residents.
Presented byJenny Philip, Manager of Economic Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Houston’s Economic Outlook
Presented byPatrick Jankowski, Vice President Research
Greater Houston Partnership