presented by: kostas stoilas
TRANSCRIPT
Trade, LogisTics & dc siTe seLecTion
PRESENTED BY:
KOSTAS STOILASJanuary 22, 2016
TODAY’S TOPICS
1. SHIFTS FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST• Optimization is Key to Supply Chain
• Transportation Costs
2. WIDE RANGE OF INDUSTRIAL NEEDS• Resurgence of Light Industrial for Last Mile Delivery
• National Demand for Big Box
• Where is Demand?
3. TAMPA & I-4 CORRIDOR• Who is Looking for Space?
• What Drives Our Market?
• Where are Institutions Investing?
4. LOOK AHEAD TO 2016
OptimizatiOn is Key tO supply Chain
•SustainedEmergenceofGlobalization
•IncreasedComplexity
•RisingImpactonlogisticsCostsWES
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TransporTaTion CosTs show signifiCanT savings & EffiCiEnCy
WES
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PA G E 4
Metroplotan to Megapolitan:60M new people in US By 2040
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WES
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T Our health DepenDs On multi-mODal
transpOrtatiOn
•Portstrikesshiftedattentionandinventory
•SupplyChainmanagerswillfigureouttheformula
•Productschangingpaths,requiringchangetorealestate
» E-commerceRelated(online-onlyandomni-channel)
» ShiftingPorts
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WES
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T NatioNal DevelopmeNts
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ResuRgence of Light industRiaLfoR Last MiLe deLiveRy
√ Smaller warehouses (200,000 SF and less) √ Driven by e-commerce and changing consumer demands √ Closer to urban areas √ Reason being:“Same Day Delivery” √ Lack of smaller warehouses developed compared to
Big Box is noticeable
WID
E RA
NG
E O
F IN
DU
STRI
AL N
EED
S
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√ Largerwarehouses(350,000SFandup)
√ DEMAND>SUPPLY=DEVELOPMENT
√ E-commerceandshorteneddelivery
√ “GreatRecession”disciplineddevelopers
√ PredominantlyfoundinTier-1distributionareas(10topmarkets)
NatioNal DemaND
For Big Box
DistriButioN CeNters
WID
E RA
NG
E O
F IN
DU
STRI
AL N
EED
S
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Lookfordeveloperstostartconstructiononspecfor500,000SForlargerthatcanbesubdividedforavarietyofe-commerceanddistributionusers.
Secondarymarketsshouldseemoreactivityase-commerceusersseeksolutionsclosertocustomersnotlocatedinMetroareasaswell.
Big-Boxmentalitywhereonlineshoppinghascreatedatrendinneedingstate-of-the-artlogisticsfacilitiesnearmajorMetros,wherethereisalsoalimitedsupplyofsuchfacilities,spurringanewwaveofdevelopment.
• E-commercerepresents6.2%ofoverallretailsales.
• By201710.3%ofallU.S.retailsaleswillbeonline.
• Demandforthelimitedsupplyofhigh-qualityindustrialpropertiesnearkeyportmarketsandhigh-densitypopulationhubs.
• RetailersmovinginventoryawayfromstoresandintocentralDCscapableofservingaswarehousesforstoresalesandfulfillmentcentersforonlinesales.
• Secondarymarketsshouldseemoreactivityase-commerceusersseeksolutionsclosertocustomersnotlocatedinMetroareasaswell.
E-CommErCEW
IDE
RAN
GE
OF
IND
UST
RIAL
NEE
DS
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AnAtomy of A Big Box DistriBution CenterW
IDE
RAN
GE
OF
IND
UST
RIAL
NEE
DS
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WID
E RA
NG
E O
F IN
DU
STRI
AL N
EED
S aDD all the entrepreneurs lOOKing fOr starter spaCe, plus the milliOn-sf bOxes, anD
yOu’ve gOt breaDth!
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DEM
AND
Where Is DemanD?TIer One marKeTs LeaD The WaY
60% OF TOTaL DemanD
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DEM
AND
Who Is DrIvIng DemanD?
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DEM
AND
What DO they have in COmmOn?Who Is DrIvIng DemanD?
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MAR
KET
FUN
DAM
ENTA
LS neW supply
COnstruCtiOn as % Of inventOry
300
250
200
150
100
50
000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Forecast
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Forecast
Forecast
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herD mentality - WhO’s lOOKing
√ Trackingover20Users
√ TrackingOver5MSF
√ Signsofneedfordevelopment:
• 628,000SFexisting
• 1.6MSFproposed(andgrowing)
•
√ Householdcorporatenamestiedto:• Buildingmaterials/construction
• Consumergoods
• E-commerce,transport/shipping,packagingsupplies
• High-techmanufacturing
• Foodandbeverage
TAM
PA &
I-4
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TAM
PA &
I-4
What Drives Our Market?hint: aCCess tO grOWing pOpulatiOn
√ Residentialconstructionandtrades
√ Strongleadersatports/EDCs/electedpositions/businesses
√ Newindustrydrivers:
Health-Bio-lifeScience-E-commerce
MedicalDevices-ConsumerGoods
√ Increasedattentiontotechandstartups;GoogleFibercoming
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TAM
PA &
I-4
tampa DemanD generatOrsTA
MPA
& I-
4
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TAM
PA &
I-4
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TAM
PA &
I-4
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TAM
PA &
I-4
grOWing pOrt business
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TAM
PA &
I-4
lOCal CargO anD passenger OptiOns
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Where are institutiOns investing?
IndustrialBusinessParksTradinghandsfromlegacy/family-ownedtoinstitutionalgradeownersexpectinggainsfromlocalactivity
TAM
PA &
I-4
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TAM
PA &
I-4
lanD OptiOns are plentiful; DeCiDing Where tO lOCate is triCKy
30+sites
potentiallyover
44MSF
GrowingMSAsequalsMoreOptions
High-TechManufacturing
andFood&Beverage
Sitesfrom100-250kSFtosingle
1MSFBoxestomaster
plannedparksof10MSF
SpeedtoMarketisKey
QuickerDecisionsduetoaccessto
BigData
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FORE
CAS
T
√ MarketturnedaroundquicklyinOct
• Nopauseyet
• Noboilingpoint-butwarmingup
√ Steadilyincreasingactivity&demand
√ Rushfordevelopingsupply-butbalanced
√ Rategrowthacrossalllocations,notjustcore
2016fOreCast
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FORE
CAS
T
√ Shorterturnaroundtimesneeded:
• thespeedofbusinesshas
improvedandbecomemore
efficientwithinformation.
• businesseswillwanttostayahead
oftheFedratesandconsumer
buyinghabits.
2016FORECAST
2016fOreCast
√ GlobaluncertaintyisstillthelargestrisktoUSgrowth.
√ 1Q16shouldbeastrongquarterforoffice,industrialandretail.
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