presented by: mike paglia- director, retail insights october 2014 mapping the overlap: dollar tree...

Presented by:

Mike Paglia- Director, Retail Insights October 2014

Mapping the Overlap:Dollar Tree & Family Dollar

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail

Copyright © 2014 Kantar Retail. All Rights Reserved.

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Disclaimers

The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kantar Retail. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion.

This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides.


About These Markets

Assuming the merger between Family Dollar and Dollar Tree goes through, it’s a near certainty that a number of store closings will follow. A normal part of any merger between two large retailers, store closures will be driven by two main factors

1. Internal analysis by the two companies to identify underperforming stores

2. A condition for FTC approval in order to alleviate potential anti-trust issues while ultimately protecting the interests of the shopper

The first driver can’t accurately be addressed until the deal closes and the integration begins. We can get to some level of clarity around the second point, however. Comparing the store bases of the two retailers reveals 15 geographies that have relatively high levels of store overlap. Taken together, these markets represent approximately 1,000 locations between the two store bases. And while not definitive, the exercise does help to identify “candidate markets” that seem more likely than others to experience a level of store contraction. That said, such an analysis ought to be used as one input into a larger equation that ultimately will help suppliers assess the coming changes and successfully navigate the transition.

Source: Kantar Retail analysis 3


This Town Isn’t Big Enough for Both of Us…

Source: Kantar Retail analysis; store visits 4


The 30,000 Foot ViewConcentrations in Texas and the eastern US ; especially major metro areas

Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 5


1. Houston, TX


27

117

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

27

117

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

Store base composition


2. Memphis, TN


12

71

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

12

71

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



3. Dallas, TX


10

64

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

10

64

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



4. San Antonio, TX


20

50

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

20

50

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



5. Jacksonville, FL


21

48

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

21

48

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



6. Philadelphia, PA


29

36

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

29

36

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



7. Chicago, IL


36

34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

36

34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



8. Indianapolis, IL


17

45

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

17

45

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



9. El Paso, TX


15

47

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

15

47

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



10. Charlotte, NC


13

42

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

13

42

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



11. Tampa, FL


12

42

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

12

42

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



12. Orlando, FL



19

31

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

19

31

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree


13. Louisville, KY



18

30

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

18

30

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree


14. Miami, FL


21

37

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

21

37

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



15. Cincinnati, OH


11

33

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree

11

33

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FamilyDollar

DollarTree



Contact:

Mike PagliaDirector, Retail [email protected]

T:+1 617 912 2855www.kantarretailiQ.com

presented by: mike paglia- director, retail insights october 2014 mapping the overlap: dollar tree...

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