Presented by

Richard A. WagonerNational Center for Atmospheric Research

Research Applications Program

ETG Preliminary Design ReviewBaltimore, MD21 February, 2001

Background Briefing on Post Processing Data Fusion Technology at NCAR

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Quality Control

(Extreme)

Real-timeDataPre-

Processing

DataAssimilationMesoscale

Model

Real-timeData

Algorithms

SensorSystems

HumanInput

( > 15 min)

Fuzzy LogicIntegrationAlgorithm

SelectiveClimatological

Input

ProductGenerator

EndUser

Community

ModelOutput

Algorithms

Design Paradigm for Intelligent Weather Systems

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Fuzzy Logic Mapping/Merging of Intelligence Sources & Product Extraction

Intelligence Source #1

Intelligence Source #2

Intelligence Source #3

Intelligence Source #4

Fuzzy Logic Function #1

Fuzzy Logic Function #2

Fuzzy Logic Function #3

Fuzzy Logic Function #4

Interest Field #1 x W1

Interest Field #2 x W2

Interest Field #3 x W3

Interest Field #4 x W4

IterativeValidation

= Human inputs

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Notable Paradigm Shifts

Old Paradigm Years Accepted

New Paradigm Years Since Introduced

Ptolemy: Geocentric Universe

1640 Copernicus: Heliocentric Solar System

457

Aristotle: Physics based on qualities

1992 Newton: Physics based on mechanics

308

Aristotle: Immutable Species

1853 Darwin: Origin of Species

147

Newton: Physics based on mechanics

217 Einstein: Physics based on Relativity

91

Aristotle: Dichotomous Logic

2300 Zadeh: Continuous Logic (Fuzzy Logic)

37

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Fuzzy Logic Milestones

• Inverted pendulum control system (1978)

• FL-based BKG-9.8 program wins World Backgammon Championship (1979)– Phase shifts

– Won the match in Monte Carlo 7:1

• First commercial large-scale control system installed in cement kiln in Denmark (1980)– Improved operations compared to human

– Cut fuel consumption

• Broad implementation of FL-based control systems (late 1980s

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Fuzzy Logic Milestones (cont.)

• Sendai train in Japan (1987)– Smoothest ride known

– Operational scores 3x better than human

– 10% energy saving over human operator

• Garry Kasparov, World Chess Champion and Grand Master, defeated by IBM’ FL-based Big Blue (1997)– Rule base fuzzified over last 5 years

– FL addresses phase changes in game strategy

– Neural net produces potential “rules” for FL conversion

– “When I see things I don’t understand, it scares me.” -- Kasparov

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Universal Application of Fuzzy Mathematical Theory in Algorithm Development Has Many Significant Advantages

• Retains the maximum amount of information through all steps of algorithm processing (no “thresholding”)

• Straightforward to apply, even by experts not familiar with it

• Easy to change later without significant rework

• Harmonious with natural language definitions

• Completely compatible with neural-net and rule-based systems

• Eliminates possibility of closed loops or ambiguities

• Very precise: allows detection of weak signal in noisy background

• Allows for easy merge of very disparate information

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A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

- Max Planck

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Fatalities Associated with U.S. AviationWind Shear Accidents

0

138

112

152134

37

00

50

100

150

Nu

mb

er o

f F

atal

itie

s

'65-'69 '70-'74 '75-'79 '80-'84 '85-'89 '90-'94 '95-'99Year of Accident

Wind Shear R&D

Pilot Training

TDWR

*

* Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.No TDWR system at Little Rock.

Source: NTSB, National Research Council

Pago Pago JFK, NY New Orleans

Dallas Charlotte

TurbulenceTurbulenceInjures Cabin Crew and Frightens Passengers

Injures Cabin Crew and Frightens Passengers

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Advanced Data Fusion Provides ImprovedForecast of CAT

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Winter ‘99 ranks (92 days)

IcingIcingAffects Aircraft In-flight

and on the GroundAffects Aircraft In-flight

and on the Ground

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In-flight Icing Causes Dangerous Loss of Lift and Control

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New Icing Product Depicts a Particularly Difficult Day

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ThunderstormsThunderstormsCause Accidents and DelaysCause Accidents and Delays

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Forecast for Little Rock Accident Provides Ample Warning

Ceiling and VisibilityCeiling and VisibilityContributes to General Aviation

Accidents and CancellationsContributes to General Aviation

Accidents and Cancellations

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Low Ceiling and Visibility is a Serious Problemfor Landing Aircraft

Dar

in B

ish

op

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IWS Goals for Data-rich Areas

• Space resolution: 1 mile

• Time resolution: 1 minute

• Probability of detection: 90%

• False alarm rate: 10%

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Summary

• A person who has held a bull by the tail knows about sixty times more than a person who hasn’t.

- Mark Twain

• NCAR / RAP is now a “continuous set theory” development center

• Over 90% of systems developed use fuzzy logic as the intelligence integrator

• Unprecedented fidelity and accuracy in systems development

• Automatic FL-based systems now compete with human forecasts