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TRANSCRIPT
Presenting
West Metro Fire Protection District
2019 Financial Risk Analysis
AGENDA
This presentation provides an overview of our financial Risk based analysis for the 2018 Fiscal year as well as defining points of the 2019 presented Budget for approval.
• Extreme Events
• Revenue Stability
• Expenditure Volatility
• Liquidity
• Growth
• Capital Projects
• Fund Balance
• Net Position
1
1
Extreme Events- Cash Flow Analysis
(10,000,000)
(5,000,000)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Cash Flow Analysis 2017
Total Revenues Total Expenses Revenues Over/Under Expenses Total Cash & Equivalents
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2
Extreme Events- Cash Flow Analysis 20173
3
General Fund Revenue Projected 2019
Property Tax
Contractual Revenue
Emergency Medical Services
Specific Ownership Tax
1% Interest/Gains/Losses
1% Permits
1% Other Revenue
76%
5%
11%
6%
Revenue Source Stability –Major Revenue Sources 4
4
Property TaxSpecific
Ownership TaxGrants
EmergencyMedical Services
PermitsContractual
RevenueInterest/Gains/L
ossesOther Revenue
2016 Actual 41,166,134 3,674,040 2,087,932 6,971,522 665,556 8,052,943 11,905 476,365
2017 Actual 46,204,872 4,865,714 4,255,519 7,313,287 651,188 3,094,518 176,171 662,958
2018 Approved Budget 52,080,061 3,412,478 407,266 7,774,350 522,000 3,441,023 150,000 439,454
2019 Proposed Budget 53,434,669 4,248,204 56,000 7,401,050 475,000 3,372,764 487,500 495,820
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
General Fund Revenue Trend by Year
Revenue Source Stability –Major Revenue Sources 5
5
Anticipated Actual
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2018 Year 2019
General mill levy tax 35,487,904 40,809,019 46,234,592 53,461,647 53,736,411
Approved Budget 35,323,055 40,091,667 46,241,257 52,080,061 53,434,669
Actual 35,345,950 41,147,464 46,241,257 52,115,639 53,434,669
Property Tax 5 Year Trend - West Metro Fire Rescue
YTD 10/31/18 Actual
Revenue Source Stability –Property Tax at 76% of Overall Revenue 6
6
General Fund Expenditures 2019 Proposed Budget
Expenditure Volatility7
7
Expenditure Volatility-By Group detail8
8
Expenditure Volatility- Identification of Personnel9
9
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
32% 32%
20%
8% 8%
Maturity Ladder
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Liquidity and Investments10
10
76% Shift towards Buyers Market by 2020
& 24% suggest 2019
21% original List Price dropped in Oct. 2018
Mortgage Interest Rates on the rise to 6% by mid 2019 In Sept. 2018 the amount
of homes listed for sale has increased, in turn
home values have decreased
Growth is predicted to slow from 5% to below 3% in 2020
through 2022
Market Trends-Housing
Source: NPR News, Zillow Research October 2018
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11
The median home value in Jefferson County is
$414,000. Jefferson County home values have
gone up 6.0% over the past year and Zillow
predicts they will rise 5.0% within the next year.
The median list price per square foot in Jefferson
County is $282, which is higher than the Denver-
Aurora-Lakewood Metro average of $265. The
median price of homes currently listed in Jefferson
County is $449,900 while the median price of
homes that sold is $410,000. The median rent
price in Jefferson County is $2,000, which is lower
than the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Metro median
of $2,050.
Jefferson County Market OverviewData through August 31, 2018
$414,000 Median Home Value
5.0% 1-yr forecast, (Aug 31, 2019)
$449,900 Median listing price (Aug 31, 2018)
$410,000 Median sale price (Aug 31, 2018)
The median home value in Douglas County is
$477,000. Douglas County home values have gone up
5.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will
rise 4.8% within the next year. The median list price
per square foot in Douglas County is $233, which is
lower than the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Metro
average of $265. The median price of homes currently
listed in Douglas County is $509,999 while the median
price of homes that sold is $468,500. The median rent
price in Douglas County is $2,295, which is higher than
the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Metro median of $2,050.
Douglas County Market OverviewData through August 31, 2018
$477,000 Median Home Value
4.8% 1-yr forecast, (Aug 31, 2019)
$509,999 Median listing price (July 31, 2018)
$468,500 Median sale price (July 31, 2018)
Source: Zillow home prices and values: https://www.zillow.com/jefferson-county-co/home-values/#
Growth–Market Overview-Property Values12
12
Douglas County Market Health
Data through Sep 30, 2017
9.7/10 Ratio Very healthy
54 Average days on Zillow (Aug 31, 2017)
4.9% Homes with negative equity (10.4% US Avg) (Mar 31, 2017)
0.4% Delinquent on mortgage (1.6% US Avg) (Mar 31, 2017)
Homes foreclosed (per 10,000)
Jefferson County Market Health
Data through Sep 30, 2018
9.7/10 Very healthy
49 Average days on Zillow (Aug 31, 2017)
3.2% Homes with negative equity (10.4% US Avg) (Mar 31, 2017)
0.4% Delinquent on mortgage (1.6% US Avg) (Mar 31, 2017)
Homes foreclosed (per 10,000)
Source: Zillow home prices and values: https://www.zillow.com/jefferson-county-co/home-values/#
Growth –Jefferson & Douglas County Market Overview 201813
13
Capital Assets Reported in 2017 CAFR14
14
Investment vehicle
sources and
management of
maturities
Liquidity &
Investments
3-5 year Growth
patterns
Growth/Market
Identification of committed
funds for IS funds and
Capital/Apparatus
Other Funds
Dependency/Capital
Projects
Cash Flow Analysis
Plan-Identify Risk
Identification of Revenue sources and
Expenditure Volatility.
Revenue &
Expenditure
GFOA-Determination of Fund Balance Target
18GFOA Analytical
Guidance Score
Total Score from identified
Risk Factors Calculated as
Low to moderate
12Adjusted Risk Score to
Minimal Risk
15
15
Fund Balance Target16
16
Fund Balance Target17
17
West Metro Fire Rescue’s Net Position Government wide
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