January, 2011Bangladesh Power Development Board

January, 2011Bangladesh Power Development Board

Present Power Scenario and Future Plan

1

Present Power Generation Scenario

2

Bangladesh’s Power Sector: At a Glance (FY 2010)

Electricity Growth : 10 % in FY-2010 (Av. 7 % since 1990)

Generation Capacity : 5826 MW (December 31, 2011)

Total Consumers : 12 Million Transmission Lines : 8,500 kmDistribution Lines : 2,70,000 kmDistribution Losses : 13.1 %Per Capita Generation : 236 kWh (incl. Captive)

Access to Electricity : 48.5 %

3

4

Present Generation Capacity (January, 2011)Public Sector

SL. Generation Capacity (MW)

1. BPDB 26202. APSCL 6063. EGCB 255

Subtotal 3481 (59 %)

Private Sector1. IPPs 12712. SIPPs (BPDB) 993. SIPPs (REB) 2264. 15 YR. Rental 1685. 3/5 YR. Rental 4416. Quick Rental 250

Subtotal 2455 (41 %)

Total 5936

Considering 15-20 % Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation Capacity is in the range of 4600 – 5000 MW without fuel constraint

5

Power Generation Capacity in Private SectorSl. No.

Name of Power Station Unit Type

Commissioning date

(Year)

Type of Fuel

Generation Capacity

(MW)1 Haripur Power Ltd. CT

ST CC 20012001

GasGas

235125

2 Meghnaghat Power Ltd. CT ST CC

2002 Gas 450

3 NEPC Gas Engine

1999 Gas 110

4 RPCL CTST CC

20002006

GasGas

175

5 KPCL BMPP Diesel Engine 1998 F. Oil 106

6 WESTMONT (WPL) CT 1999 Gas 707 SIPP (13 Plant) CT 2007-2009 Gas 3258 Rental -15 Years (4 Plant) CT 2008-2009 Gas 1689 Rental -3/5 Years (10 Plant) CT 2008-2010 Gas 691

TOTAL (33 operators) 2,455

Demand Supply Situation

Generation on Jan 6, 2009: 3268 MW (Capacity- 4931 MW)

Generation: 4000 – 4600 MW (Capacity- 5936 MW)

Highest so far: 4699 MW ( 20 August 2010)

Gas shortage causes 500 - 700 MW less Power GenerationPeak Demand: 6000 MW (with DSM)

Load shedding up to 1500 MW during hot summer days (with DSM)

Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained economic growth

6

7

Age of Power Plants Age Group

(Years) Installed Capacity

(MW)

40 + 8031 – 40 30521 – 30 110511 – 20 137801 – 10 3068Total 5936

25 % of Capacity have more than 20 Years life

Energy Generation: 99.13 M kWh Energy Not Served: 3.13 M kWh

Load Curve on August 20, 2010 (so far Maximum Peak)

GAS

PRIVATE GEN.(GAS)

P.GEN(OIL).

COALHydro

OIL

SHORTAGE

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

0:002:00

4:006:00

8:0010:0

012:0

014:0

016:0

018:0

020:0

022:0

024:0

0

Hour

MW

GAS PR+En.Curve!$V$33 GEN. (GAS) P.GEN(OIL). COAL Hydro OIL SHORTAGE

4692 MW (4:00 AM)4699 MW (9:00 PM)

3911 MW (12:00 Noon)

8

FO3.00%

Diesel1.76%

Hydro2.50% Coal

3.53%

Gas89.21%

Energy Generation(FY10): 29,247 Million Unit

Energy Generation by Fuel Type in FY 2010

Energy Growth in FY10 is about 10 %High Dependence on Gas

9

Energy Generation July-Sept. 10): 7,795 Million Unit

GAS74.00%

Diesel3.00%

Hydro2.50%

Coal3.50%

FO17.00%

GAS FO Diesel Hydro Coal

Estimated Energy Generation in FY15: 38,844 Million Unit

Expected Fuel Mix in FY 2013

10

Planning Perspective

12

Primary Fuel Supply Scenario

Gas: No significant gas discovery in recent years; off – shore and on – shore gas exploration initiatives & increased reserves in present fields may change the present scenario

Coal: Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load; Oil: Volatile market; High price; For peaking dutyLNG: Necessary to ensure secure and reliable gas supplyNuclear: Safe technology; No pollution; Expected to be future Base Load option

13

Generation Expansion PlanImmediate: 6 -12 Months- Rental Plants (liquid fuel)Short term: 18 - 24 Months- Peaking Plants (liquid fuel)Medium term: 3 - 5 years- Combined Cycle Plants (Gas or dual fuel)- Peaking Plant (Gas or dual fuel)- Coal fired steam plantsLong term: beyond 5 years- LNG based Combined Cycle Plants- Domestic/Imported Coal Power Plant- Gas/Oil based Peaking Plant- Nuclear Power Plant- Renewable Energy

14141414

Gen Addition Jan 09 – Dec 09 : 356 MW Gen Addition Jan 10 – Nov 10 : 775 MW

Total Gen. Addition (Jan 09 – Dec 10): 1131 MW

Power Generation Addition From Jan 09 to Dec 10

Details

15151515

Power Generation Projects up to 2016Calendar Year Wise Projects Completion (From 2010 to 2016)

YEAR2010(MW)

Commissioned

2011(MW)

2012 (MW)

2013 (MW)

2014 (MW)

2015 (MW)

2016 (MW)

TOTAL(MW)

Public 255 851 838 1040 1270 450 1500 6204

Private 270 105 1072 1311 1123 1900 1300 7081

Quick Rental 250 1185 1435

Total 775 2141 1910 2351 2393 2350 2800 14,720

Public Sector : 6204 MW (comm:255 MW, u/c: 1414 MW, Tender: 1270 MW); (42%)Private Sector : 8516 MW (comm:520 MW, u/c: 1290 MW, Tender: 2506 MW); (58%)

16

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Max.Demand with DSM (In April)

6454 6765 7518 8349 9268 10283 11405

Gen addition - Public Sector 255 851 838 1040 1270 450 1500

Gen. addition - Private Sector 520 1290 1072 1311 1123 1900 1300

Regional Power Imp 500Capacity Retired 88 83 161 1292 128 1033Gen. Capacity (End of Dec) 5936 7989 9816 12506 13607 15829 17596NET 5699 7669 9423 12006 13063 15196 16892Dependable Capacity (End of Dec) 4331 5905 7350 9485 10450 12157 13514Max Surplus/Shortfall (In Summer) -2123 -860 -168 1136 1182 1874 2109

-33% -13% -2% 14% 13% 18% 18%

Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)January, 2011

17

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Max.Demand with DSM (In April) Dependable Capacity (End of Dec)

Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)January, 2011

Project Implementation

19

Successful Contract Signed since Jan 2009

Sl. No.

Description No. of Projects

Capacity(MW)

01. Rental 3 26502. Quick Rental 15 143503. Public Sector 14 1204

Total 32 2,904

•Out of 2904 MW 410 MW already commissioned (4 projects).•28 Projects with capacity 2494 MW under construction. Details u/c

20

Projects Under Construction

Sl. No.

Description No. of Projects

Capacity(MW)

01. Rental 1 10502. Quick Rental 13 118503. Public Sector 14 1204

Total 28 2,494

Details u/c Pics

21

Projects Under Procurement Process: Contract within Next 6 Months

Sl. No.

Description No. of Projects

Capacity(MW)

01. Public Sector 5 127003. Private Sector

(IPP’s)18 2506

Total 23 3776

Fuel Supply Requirement

2323

Gas Requirement in coming years (MMCFD) include. dual fuel IPPs

Sl. No

Description

(Gas based power plants)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1 Generation Capacity (MW) 46522 Generation Addition (MW) 1139 1340 1950 1370 450 1500 750 7503 Plant Retirement (MW) 98 33 106 522 0 156 0 0

4 Gas Based Generation (MW) 4652 5693 7000 8844 9692 10142 11486 12236 12966

5Gas Required considering without Retirement (MMCFD

1217 1553 1809 2175 2392 2471 2735 2867 2999

6 Gas Required considering Retirement (MMCFD) 1217 1526 1773 2111 2181 2260 2524 2656 2788

7

Net Gas Requirement with considering Retirement & 90 % Plant Availability (MMCFD)

1095 1373 1596 1900 1963 2034 2272 2390 2509

Gas Requirement will be nearly 3 fold from now by 2018At least 60 % allocation needed for Power GenerationEnhanced on/off shore exploration activities required to ensure gas supply to power plants

Requirement of Liquid Fuels for upcoming Power Plant Projects

Sl. No.

Mode of Transport

Sep. 2010(M.Ton)

Dec. 2010(M.Ton)

July 2011(M.Ton)

Dec. 2011(M.Ton)

1 Railway 3,023 8,603 16,651 16,651

2 River way 12,502 13,055 25,268 25,268

Total 15,525 21,658 41,919 41,919

Monthly HSD Requirement

Sl. No.

Mode of Transport

Sep. 2010(M.Ton)

Dec. 2010(M.Ton)

July 2011(M.Ton)

Dec. 2011(M.Ton)

1 Railway - - 8,356 33,407

2 River way - 9,454 80,139 111,190

Total - 9,454 88,495 144,597

Monthly HFO Requirement

24

Financing Requirement

Estimated Financing Requirement for Public Sector ProjectsDescription Total

Investment(Million US$)

GOBInvestment(Million US$)

Remarks

BPDB: Public Peaking- 820 MW, Bhola 150, Barapuku 3 rd-250 , Kaptai Solar- 5 MW.TOTAL: 1225 MW

1600 1150 1030 M US $ Cost for 820 MW finance from GOBBhola- IDBBara-250 coal and Solar 5 MW- financing not

confirmedNWPGC: Siraj 150, Khulna 150, Bhera 360TOTAL: 660 MW

680 170 Siraj 150 and Khulna 150-ADBBhera 360 - JICA

EGCB: Sidd 2X150, Hari 360TOTAL: 660 MW

680 170 Sidd 2x150- WB and Hari 360- JICA

APSCL: 50 Pk, 150 MW CC, 450 MW: Total- 650 MW 825 200 Project Financing not confirmed

Mixed Sector: RPCL & PDB JV- 150, RPCL Kodda- 50, RPCL Raujan-20, Dhaka N-450 MW CCTOTAL: 670 MW

770 190 Project Financing not confirmed

Total (in Million US $) 4555 1880 Total 3865 MW:1) Lenders commitment so far : 1400 M US $2) Companies own fund: 450 M US $ 3) Rest 825 M US $ yet to be confirmed 26

Estimated Financing Requirement for Private Sector Projects

Description Total Investment

(Million US$)

Equity (Million US$)

Debt(Million US$)

1600 MW Quick Rental 1760 440 1320Solar and Wind Projects: 110 MW (IPP)

200 50( 25 % )

150( 75 % )

Combined Cycle and Peaking Plants in Private Sector: 3175 MW (IPP)

3800 950( 25 % )

2850( 75 % )

2600 MW Coal PPP 4000 1000( 25 % )

3000( 75 % )

Total (in Million US $) 9760 2440 7320Total Financing Requirement: 4555 + 9760 = 14,315 Mill. US $

27

Expected Sources of Fund

Sources of Fund

1. GOB2. Foreign Assistance (Multilateral and Bilateral

Agencies)3. Financial Institutions / Banks4. Infrastructure financing Company / Energy and Power

Fund (PPP)5. Private Sector Equity

Rental Tariff

30

Tariff offered by Recent Rental Power Plants

Sl. No Description Fuel

Tariff: Non fuel

Tariff: Fuel

Tariff Tk/Kwh at 80% P.F

01. Beramara 110 MW 3 years Rental HSD 2.35 10.24 12.5902. Thakurgaon 50 MW 3 years Rental HSD 2.39 11.35 13.7403. Noapara 100 MW 5 years Rental FO 1.53 5.76 7.2904. Barisal 50 MW 5 years Rental FO 1.60 5.54 7.14

Sl. No Description Fuel

Tariff: Non fuel

Tariff: Fuel

Tariff Tk/Kwh at 80% P.F

01. Khulna 40 MW 3 years Rental HSD 2. 58 12.32 14.9002. Sikalbaha 550 MW 3 years Rental FO 2.11 5.85 7.96

Recent Rental offered price under 530 MW Bid

Existing Rental Price (Awarded by Caretaker Gov.)

31

Tariff of Quick Rental Power PlantsSl. No Description Fuel

Tariff: Non fuel

Fuel Compon

ent

Tariff Tk/Kwh at 80% P.F

01. Ghorashal 100 MW ; Aggriko HSD 2.51 11.88 14.3902. Khulna 100 MW; Aggriko HSD 2.51 11.88 14.3903. Siddirgonj 105 MW ; Desh Energy HSD 2.63 10.72 13.3504. Modanganj 102 MW; Summit Power FO 2.135 5.65 7.78505. Kadda, Gazipur 100 MW; IEL Power FO 2.06 5.72 7.7806. Khulna 115 MW; KPCL FO 2.18 5.60 7.7807. Meghnagat PDV 100 FO 2.00 5.76 7.7608. Nowapara IFDC40 FO 2.04 5.74 7.7809. Keranigong Power Pack 100 FO 2.018 5.766 7.78410. ChapainababgonjSinha50 FO 2.10 5.65 7.7711. Julda Bangla Trac 100 FO 2.03 5.73 7.7612. Kadda, Gazipur Dutch Bangla100 FO 2.065 5.72 7.785

32

Public Sector Peaking Power Plants

Sl. No Description Fuel Tariff:

Non fuelFuel

Component

Tariff Tk/Kwh at 80% P.F

01. Gopalganj 100 MW FO 1.67 5.80 7.4702. Faridpur 50 MW FO 1.65 5.80 7.4503. Bera 70 MW FO 1.51 5.91 7.4204. Baghabari 50 MW FO 2.11 5.54 7.6505. Hathazari 100 MW FO 2.08 5.38 7.4606. Dohazari 100 MW FO 2.18 5.32 7.5007. Doudkandi 50 MW FO 2.36 5.54 7.90

Average Tariff for 520 MW

1.95 5.59 7.54

Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement

Revenue Requirement and Shortfall with Existing Tariff

Sl No Description

Av. Bulk Tariff ( Tk / kWh)

Bulk Supply Cost at 33 kV level (Tk / kWh)

FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 TOTAL1. Per unit cost with

quick Rental2.37 2.72 3.62 4.41 4.99 4.82 4.68

2. Revenue Requirement for Bulk Power

10469 14743 18736 20218 22636

3. Revenue Earning with existing tariff

6861 7915 8906 9934 11460

4. Revenue Shortfall due to Bulk Power Management

3,607 6,828 9, 829 10, 284 11, 176 41,724

Av. Cost in FY 2015 : 4.68 Tk/kWhAv. Purchase Cost from Rental: HSD – 13.69 Tk/kWh; FO – 7.69 Tk/kWhUn served Energy Cost: 30 Tk/kWh (As per PSMP 2006)High cost liquid fuel based power plants will get less dispatch (according to merit order); mostly peaking duty 34

3535

Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement20-Sep-10

Sl Description Av. Bulk Tariff

(Tk/kWh)

FY 2010 FY 2011 (July-Dec)

FY 2011 (Jan-June)

FY 2012 (July-Dec)

FY 2012 (Jan-June)

FY 2013 (July-Dec)

FY 2013 (Jan-June)

FY 2014 (July-Dec)

FY 2014 (Jan-June)

FY 2015 (July-Dec)

FY 2015 (Jan-June)

1Bulk Energy Sales (MU) 25952 13896 15054 16031 17367 18038 19541 20120 21796 23211 25145

2Av. Bulk Supply Cost 2.37 2.72 3.616 3.616 4.414 4.414 4.986 4.986 4.823 4.823 4.681 4.681

3Tariff need to increase (%) 53% 22% 13% -3% -3%

4If Increased by 0 % 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.37

5Gap between Cost and Tariff 1.25 1.25 2.04 2.04 2.62 2.62 2.45 2.45 2.31 2.31

6Compensation Required 1732 1876 3277 3550 4718 5111 4936 5347 5364 5811

20264 4172410469 14743 18736 20218 226366861 7915 8906 9934 114603607 0 6828 0 9829 0 10284 0 11176

3636

Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff RequirementSl Description Av. Bulk

Tariff-Tk/kWh

FY 2010 FY 2011 (July-Dec)

FY 2011 (Jan-June)

FY 2012 (July-Dec)

FY 2012 (Jan-June)

FY 2013 (July-Dec)

FY 2013 (Jan-June)

FY 2014 (July-Dec)

FY 2014 (Jan-June)

FY 2015 (July-Dec)

FY 2015 (Jan-June)

1Bulk Energy Sales (MU) 25952 13896 15054 16031 17367 18038 19541 20120 21796 23211 25145

2Av. Bulk Supply Cost (Tk/kWh)

2.37 2.72 3.62 3.62 4.41 4.41 4.99 4.99 4.82 4.82 4.68 4.68

3Tariff need to increase (%) 53 22 13 -3 -3

4If Increased by 12 % (3 yr.)

2.65 2.97 3.33 3.73 4.18 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68

5Gap between Cost and Tariff

0.96 0.64 1.08 0.69 0.81 0.31 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00

6Compensation Required (Crore Tk)

1336 968 1739 1190 1459 601 293 317 8 8

7919Total Compensation Required in Crore Taka

3737

Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

FY 2011 (July-Dec)

FY 2011 (Jan-June)

FY 2012 (July-Dec)

FY 2012 (Jan-June)

FY 2013 (July-Dec)

FY 2013 (Jan-June)

FY 2014 (July-Dec)

FY 2014 (Jan-June)

FY 2015 (July-Dec)

FY 2015 (Jan-June)

Av. Bulk Supply Cost (Tk/kWh) If Increased by 12 % (3 yr.)

2.37 Taka/kWh

4.68 Taka/kWh

Thank You