preserving blue carbon...world atlas of mangroves (spalding et al. 2010) economics literature sparse...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Preserving Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from
Coastal Ecosystems
RFF Breakfast September 27, 2011
Juha Siikamäki (RFF)
with Jim Sanchirico (UC Davis), Sunny Jardine (UC Davis)
Dave McLaughlin and Danny Morris (RFF)
Funding by
Linden Trust for Conservation, Vicki and Roger Sant, and Resources for the Future
![Page 2: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1
Mangroves
![Page 3: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Salt Marshes
and Sea
Grasses
2
![Page 4: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Coastal Development
3
![Page 5: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Motivation
Coastal ecosystems constitute significant carbon storage
Coastal development threatens coastal areas Agriculture, aquaculture, residential, tourism, industrial
Mangrove area reduced by 0.7-2% annually (estimates vary)
Releases carbon stored in biomass and soils, prevents further accumulation
Forests and REDD Potential for low-cost emission reductions
Integral part of climate policy considerations
Information on blue carbon accumulating Substantial literature on natural sciences
World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010)
Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011)
![Page 6: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Is there economic potential for
“blue REDD”?
5
• Will benefits from avoided emissions outweigh the costs?
• Benefits measured using the value of potential offset credits
• Costs include opportunity cost of land, set up costs, O&M • Agricultural gross revenues as land value indicator
• Spatially fine resolution dataset (Naidoo and Iwamura 2007) calibrated
to World Bank (2010) country-estimates of land values
• Avoided emissions depend on • Amount of carbon in an area (literature reviews, meta-analysis of soil C)
• Risk of land conversion (FAO data 1990-2005)
• Carbon released as a result of land conversion (range of emission profiles)
• All of the above varies by location • 9*9 km parcels as our unit of analysis, each parcel described separately
• Total over 25,000 potential target areas
• Current protections netted out (UNEP-WCMC data)
![Page 7: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Contributions
6
Overall assessment plus four distinct contributions 1. First global assessment of potential blue carbon offset supply using
spatially fine resolution • Addresses considerable variation found within country and between regions
2. Estimating location-specific amount of soil carbon in mangroves • Meta-analysis of data from a large number of studies (941 obs, 30 countries)
• First country-specific estimates of soil carbon in mangroves
3. Governance considerations and potential supply of carbon offsets • Global and regional supply under governance effectiveness constraints
4. Biodiversity co-benefits from carbon offsets • Systematic assessment using IUCN data on species ranges
Murray et al. (2010) provides the closest similar
Assessment • Uses country and global level information
• Complementary in the approach and results
![Page 8: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Mangroves
7
![Page 9: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Sea Grasses
8
![Page 10: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Mangroves and Sea Grasses
9
![Page 11: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Mangroves: A Closer Look
Americas
10
![Page 12: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
11
Bahamas, Cuba
![Page 13: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
12
Bahamas Close-up
![Page 14: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Mangrove Areas in Bahamas
13
Bahamas Close-up II
![Page 15: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
South Florida
14
![Page 16: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
SE Asia, Oceania
15
![Page 17: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
16
Borneo
![Page 18: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
17
Borneo: Protected Areas
![Page 19: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
18
Global Area of Blue Carbon
Habitats (1000s km2)
139
51
319
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
Th
ou
san
ds
![Page 20: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Top Countries
19
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Indonesia
Australia
Mexico
Nigeria
United States
Brazil
Cuba
Guinea-Bissau
Saudi Arabia
Philippines
Percentage of Global of Total Mangrove Seagrass
![Page 21: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
Biomass
Soil
Carbon Stock per Area (tons per hectare)
![Page 22: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
21
Mangroves Are Especially Carbon
Rich Forests
Source: Donato et al. 2011, Nature Geoscience April 3, 2011
![Page 23: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
Biomass
Soil
Global Blue Carbon Stock (billions of tons)
![Page 24: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
23
Global Emissions
(millions tons C, annually)
Note: Global emissions from deforestation about 1.2 Pg yr -1 (van der Werf et a. 2009)
0
10
20
30
40
Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses
![Page 25: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
24
Globally Annual Losses
Mangroves, km2 139,170 km2 1,009 km2
Total carbon pool 7 Pg C 26.5 mill t C
Total carbon at risk, on
average 291 t ha-1 262 t ha-1
Current protections 631,767 ha 4,500 ha (avoided
losses)
Carbon in protected areas 187 million tons 1.2 million tons
(emissions avoided)
Mangrove Area, Carbon, and
Current Protections
![Page 26: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Mangrove Carbon Stock, by Country
25
![Page 27: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Emissions from Mangrove Loss
26
![Page 28: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
27
Marginal Cost of Preserving Mangrove
Carbon
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
HighLow Central
Range of 2011
ETS prices
$/to
n of
CO
2
CO2, million of tons
![Page 29: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
28
Global and Regional Supply
![Page 30: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
29
Global and Regional Supply
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$/to
n of
CO
2
Global
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Americas and Caribbean
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CO2, million of tons
$/to
n of
CO
2
Africa and Middle East
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CO2, million of tons
Asia and Oceania
![Page 31: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
30
Governance Effectiveness
![Page 32: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
31
Blue Carbon Supply and Governance
Effectiveness
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30$/t
on o
f C
O2
Global: With TAE
AllTop 50 Top 90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Americas and Caribbean
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CO2, million of tons
$/t
on o
f C
O2
Africa and Middle East
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CO2, million of tons
Asia and Oceania
![Page 33: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
32
Biodiversity:
Mangroves
![Page 34: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
33
Biodiversity:
Other species in mangrove areas
1. Birds 2. Endangered Birds
3. Amphibians 4. Reptiles
![Page 35: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Biodiversity Focused Targeting Approaches:
Estimated Additional Costs
34
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 107
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Carbon per ton
Diffe
rence in b
udget
($ m
illio
ns)
Mangrove
Biodiversity
Endgangered Birds
Uniform
![Page 36: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Blue Carbon and Climate Policy
Frameworks International Agreements (UNFCCC)
Conversations forming but notable presence not yet established
REDD could provide a basic framework (some modifications needed)
Basic research needed to help gain a better understanding
Bilateral Agreements More flexible than UNFCCC (e.g. Norway-Indonesia arrangement includes not
only forests but also peatlands)
Regional/State Programs EU ETS accepts CDM/JI offset credits; remains generally skeptical towards land
use based offset (not included until after 2020)
RGGI allows afforestation credits but only in the member states
California AB 32
forests defined broadly enough to include mangroves, but credits must be in the US
bilateral agreements to developed offsets could include blue carbon (Chiapas, Mexico)
Similar to other programs, sea grasses and salt marshes a more distant possibility
35
![Page 37: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Further Research Needs
Basic data needs Emission profile after disturbance (all blue carbon systems)
Total area, geographic distribution (salt marshes)
Loss/disturbance rates (all blue carbon systems, especially salt marshes and
sea grasses)
Opportunity cost of preservation (non-agricultural uses)
Regional and local assessments Reduce data uncertainties
Better understand conservation, development, co-benefit options
Other ecosystem services Carbon preservation just one valuable ecosystem service
For example, mangroves are important to …
36
![Page 38: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
37
Birds
![Page 39: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Fish
38
![Page 40: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Other species
39
![Page 41: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
People
40
![Page 42: Preserving Blue Carbon...World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010) Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011) Is there economic potential for “blue REDD”? 5 • Will](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042017/5e75083697b424688970f686/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
For more information:
Juha Siikamäki
Resources for the Future
Tel. 202-328-517
41
Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from the Degradation
and Development of Coastal Ecosystems
Forthcoming RFF report