Presid

ential P

olicym

akingPart One: Factors in Success

What are the important factors in Presidential leadership?

• Power is conditional and depends on circumstances

• Action normally depends on the approval of Congress

• Congress holds the key to Prez. Success!

• How far will they back Prez. Initiatives? (Johnson 65%, Nixon 20%)

Initiative’s success depends on…

• The Force of Circumstance:

-FDR accomplished sweeping changes during Depression

-Reagan became President during recession; tax and spending cuts!

-When conditions are favorable, power can be great!

Initiatives success depends on…

• The Stage of his Term

-honeymoon period: first months in office when the govt. & people are more likely to support.

-strategy: put forth more new programs!

-irony: most powerful when dumbest!

Initiatives success depends on…

• Foreign or Domestic nature?

-Since WWII, only 40% of domestic policy proposals enacted

-70% of foreign have! WHY?

- United front: containing communism (until Vietnam went sour), 9/11 (“),less clashing interest groups, not wanting to show weakness

Paired whip-around:

• Get with partner behind you and discuss the following: (I will call on two rows).

• Does the Constitution give explicit foreign policy to the President?

• What evidence do you/do you not have?• (Use text/notes)

Initiative success (cont.)

• Foreign or domestic?

- Recently, Congress has been trying to assume leadership w/ military spending, human rights, intnl. trade

- Domestic interests are more divided: reflected in Congress!

- His influence is strongest in agencies under constitutional powers

What has happened to prez. Powers during a crisis?

6 min.

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Part Two

Relations with Congress

• Prez. chooses issues that draws attention

• Congressional support:

-When Prez. believes his ideas should supercede Congress, they get in trouble!

-The veto as an example

-though a force, Congress did fight against line-item veto (Clinton v. New York)

Why was the line item veto unpopular?

Analyze

The Constitution doesn’t allow the President to cancel specific items in tax and spend legislation

Who is the undisputed leader in vetoes?Who had the highest % overrides?

The Power to Persuade Congress

• Because it is a system of divided powers, the Prez. must strive to serve Congress if they want support!

• Ex: The Marshall Plan - Truman knew he could never force

Congress into passing it- he instead used key positions in Congress

to get support- Congress can never be taken for granted!

Democracy in America DVD: Johnson Treatment

How important is it to have partisan support?

• Very important

• Nothing else is more important to presidential success!

• More initiatives are passed

• Ex: Clinton’s first year & deficit reduction bill

• After Republicans took control in ’95, his success was LOW

What if the President collides w/Congress?

• In rare times presidents have pursued goals so strongly result is a backlash

• Impeachment and removal: removal of officials requiring a 2/3 majority

• Ultimate check on a President’s power.

• 1868: Johnson, 1974: Nixon, 1998: Clinton.

Impeachment of Clinton

• Why exactly did it take place?• Were the Clintons really damaged by it?

Colliding w/Congress, cont…• More often Congress has responded

legislatively to abuses

• War Powers Act

• b/c of Johnson and Nixon misleading Congress about Vietnam

• Requires the Prez to both notify for reason and hostilities end within 60 days

• Does it work?

(Reading: The War Powers Act)

What’s more crucial: character or conditions?

• All presidents start out with the public’s confidence, but then it falls!

• Personal character:

• Clinton’s morality weakened him.

• How much?

• Conditions: Economy under Clinton was stronger factor!

• Economic downswings

• Hurt the most!

Analyze with 12 o’clock neighbor in regards to last slide…

Presidential Approval:

• Remember, the honeymoon period!

George W. Bush would have the largest disparity in history!

Public support: Responding to crisis

• International crisis always increases the president’s standing

• Patriotic “rally around the flag” reaction

• But an ongoing crisis can erode the support

• Carter hostage crisis

• War on Terror?

Did any start and end strong?

The cost of Obama’s health care bill

What kind of illusions might media present?• A major advantage Presidents have is

guaranteed access to the media• Free air time!• “Going public”: bypassing the

bargaining with Congress and appealing to the American public for support

• TR’s “bully pulpit”• The Great Communicator?:

Television and Illusions

• Going public doesn’t always work…

• Clinton’s first year, press attacks for not keeping promises.

• Reality, he did keep 75% of them, but press focused on a couple of broken ones

• Response: come up with own version

• Clinton: “Master Spinner”

• Illusion of Pres. Govt.

• get too much credit & blame

When spinning doesn’t work…

What exactly is a presidential “mandate”?

• DVD